Cheltenham 2011 - Rules and Selections

[BC]

Cheltenham Challenge 2011

Rules

This is based on what I can remember of the Cheltenham Festival Competition on Trojan's board last year (or was it the year before... time flies).

1. You have a starting bank of £600; i.e. £150 per day to stake for each of the four days of the festival.

2. For each of the four days, you make three selections - one WIN; one E/W; one LAY as follows:

A £50 win bet
A £25 each-way bet
And a £50 lay bet

(To clarify, the lay bet is win only, not place).

3. Rule 4 will NOT apply.

4. Winnings (losses) will be added (subtracted) to/from the £600 bank.

5. All winning bets are settled at SP (including the lay bet).

E/W bets will be settled at 1/5 odds for non-handicaps and 1/4 the odds for all handicaps.
5-7 runners 1/2
8-15 runners 1/2/3
Handicaps 16+ runners 1/2/3/4

6. All selections must be posted on Classified Racing a minimum of 5 minutes before the scheduled race time.

7. When making selections please state Time, Horse, Racecard Number, Bet type (i.e. Win, EW, Lay). You don't need to state the amount (that is fixed - see Rule 2), or the meeting!

8. Obviously, the winner is the person who has the biggest bank at the end of Friday's racing.

9. If you miss a day, or a selection, or start late, you will be deemed to have lost your stake for the missed bets/days.

10. You may nominate a reserve in case of a non-runner. In the event of a n/r with no reserve nominated, the favourite will be used. This applies to win, e/w and lay).


I will keep the scores at the end of each day's racing.

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The Prize

The prize will be a "virtual" Gold Cup with your name engraved on the stand, and the right to call yourself the "Classified Racing Cheltenham Challenge Gold Cup Winner 2011".

Now come on, it doesn't get much better than that!

And here it is:



Who will get their name on this year's?

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Discussion

I have set up a separate discussion and thoughts thread.

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Entries

Please post below if you think you might be interested to take part. Otherwise it might be the shortest competition thread in the history of... er... competition threads.
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B - hope to see you taking part - C

[007]

I'd like to have a go.

The declarations don't show many "Bond theme" names, so I may have to branch out to film and theatre!

007

[Old Timer]

BC,

Glad you remembered last year's rules. Count me in - ISP willing that is!!!

OT

[andyor]

Should be great fun......looking forwad to taking part...

Andyor

[banger]

Count Me In

[Kimmy]

And me please.

[BC]

And then there were six.

Whoo hooo.

Anyone else?

[Les]

i,m in bc best of luck everyone

[Nofinepix]

[Old Timer]

Good to see you back Les, hope things are going well.

OT

[Old Timer]

I think this belongs here, unless BC wants to move it into its own pigeon hole.

Cheltenham Miscellany

Some odds and sods that I’ve picked up from various sources and which range from the surprising to the expected.

Prices
It’s always a good meeting for longer-priced winners and a time to steer clear of those short priced favourites that flatter to deceive. Just to show I’m not talking out of one the body’s other orifices, consider this:

Since 2004, no fewer than 162 horses have started at 4/1 or shorter, and yet of these just 36 have actually done the business (22.2%).

Last year for example, the only odds on winner was Big Bucks @ 5/6, as Dunguib, Master Minded and Kauto Star all failed to land the odds, while Quevega @ 5/4 and Sanctuaire @ 4/1 were the only other two winners @ 4/1 or less – that’s out of 21 horses which started @ 4/1 or less.

So, with that in mind, I shall be extra careful looking at the following horses, which were quoted at 4/1 or less the last time I looked:

Cue Card (Supreme Novices’ Hurdle), Finians Rainbow (Arkle), Quevega (Mares’ Hurdle), Time For Rupert (RSA Chase), Master Minded and Big Zeb (both Champion Chase), Poquelin (Ryanair Chase), Big Buck’s and Grand Crus (both World Hurdle) and Imperial Commander (Gold Cup)

I’m not saying there aren’t some winners there, but past experience suggests that there’ll be more losers than winners.

As you are aware, I’m more into the handicaps and here’s an angle for sorting out the winners of those big field handicaps:

Don’t bother with those quoted at single figure odds
Horses that ran lto within the 10-40 days range
No headgear, as that can denote questionable temperament

Stupid as it may sound, between 2004 and 2010 you would have actually made a profit of 232 pts at SP if you’d backed ALL qualifiers in the non-novice handicaps. While I am not advocating that sort of an approach, I shall be working it into my thinking when tackling the big handicaps at the meeting.

Trainers/Jockeys

Nigel Twiston-Davies
Don’t bother with his horses for the first couple of days, as 5/6 of his winners came in chases on Thursday and Friday. They were generally lightweights, being no more than 4lbs off bottom weight and had run 2 within 20-90 days. If Paddy Brennan is up so much the better, as he has ridden 4 of the 5 Thursday/Friday winners.

Paul Nicholls
He’s only 1/35 on the Tuesday, but gets going after that with 17/140 winners all coming in Class 1 races. Of these, 14 won lto, while 16/17 were 1st or 2nd favourite lto within 20-90 days previously. Interestingly, he’s 0/13 with 10yo or older, so beware Kauto Star! Not surprisingly, Ruby Walsh is on most winners – though never in handicap chases – and Christian Williams has never even made the frame for the stable.

Nicky Henderson
There are a number of negatives here, included horses in novice events and over 24f+, plus female horses or those running after a 61-day break or more. You don’t want his horses starting 1st or 2nd favourite either (1/25), but nor do you want them longer than 25/1. Horses running over the same trip or 1f further than lto have provided 8 of the 9 runners, but the key seems to be all male horses running up to 21f and carrying 10-8 or more that are not in novice handicaps and start @ 25/1 or less. Watch Barry Gerraghty on the stable’s 4-6yos in hurdles up to 21f.

Phillip Hobbs
Has suffered in the last few years with only 4 winners, though these all carried between 10-12 and 11-9 in races up to 21f and had finished in the first 3 lto running between 20 and 60 days ago. Richard Johnson rode all four.

David Pipe
Not much to write home about really, though his 5 winners have come in Cl1 races up to 25f and 3 have been ridden by jockeys other than Scudamore and Murphy.

Venetia Williams
Thursday is her day and her 3 winners have come in Cl1 handicaps (not novice) over 20f to 25f and all had finished in the top 4 lto. Mightn’t sound a lot, but she’s only had 6 qualifiers like that.

Ferdy Murphy
Usually comes up with a winner at the meeting (failed in ’09) and the best tack is to follow his 7-10yos over 20f or more in races of 16 or more runners. Make sure they’ve been off 26 days or more, plus if they were placed 1st or 2nd lto so much the better.

Alan King
Question mark after his troubles the past two years, but prior to that he’d put up some very positive figures. While 6/9 winners were at 16/17f, 8/9 winners were aged 5-7yo, plus had finished in the top two lto at least 20 days previously. Robert Thornton is the jockey to note in non-handicaps on horses that started at 10/1 or less (but NOT favourite) and had at least one top 2 finish in their last 2 races.

Jonjo O’Neil
A trainer I find difficult to fathom. He’s another that only comes alive on Thursday and Friday with 6 of his 7 winners, all aged 6-9yo and having won at least one of their last 4 starts. They tend to be class horses, as 6/7 have carried top or equal top weight and while 5 finished in the top 2 lto, 4 started favourite. McCoy has had a winner each year, at distances of 20f to 25f and finishing 1st or 2nd lto.

Willie Mullins
The Irish trainer has had at least 1 winner each of the past 4 years. The best approach seems to be all 5-7yo hurdlers up to 21f that had won 1 of their last 2 starts.

Tuesday’s card:
Supreme Novices – Gr1 Novice Hurdle (4yo+) 16.5f
Age – 5yo or 6yo
Experience – 2-5 runs over hurdles
Lto – 1st or close 2nd in Cl3 or better
Not run within past 14 days
Not coming from handicap
Not dropping down in trip from 19f or more
Not wearing headgear

Arkle – Gr1 Chase (4yo+) 16.5f
Age – 5yo, 6yo or 7yo – Moscow Flyer was the exception!
Experience – 2-5 runs over fences
Lto – 1st or 2nd
Chase career 1st, 2nd or Fell in each race; no 3rd or worse
Must have previously contested a Gr1 or Gr2 race (either hurdle or chase)
Not run within past 24 days
French-bred have good record
Northern-trained have a poor record
High class hurdle background a positive (142+)

Champion Hurdle – Gr1 Hurdle (4yo+) 16.5f
Age – 6yo to 8yo
Experience – minimum of 9 races over hurdles
Lto – 1st – only two hadn’t won lto in recent years
Must have previously contested a Gr1 or Gr2 race
Previous Cheltenham form (especially winning form) a positive
No novices

Stewart Family Trophy – Gr3 Hcap Chase (5yo+) 24.5f
Age – 7yo to 10yo
Lto – Cl2 or better over 21f or preferably further – not novice
Negatives:
Exposed 6yo, 7yo or 8yo with more than 20 runs
Exposed horses of 20 or more runs with just 1 or 2 runs current season
Any horse with less than 2 runs current season
Horses from out of the handicap
Horses carrying 11-6 or more
6yo & 7yo coming from 22f
Horses coming from 22f with less than 13 starts

Wednesday’s Card
Neptune Investment Management – Gr1 Novice Hurdle (4yo+) 21f
Age – 5yo & 6yo
Experience – minimum 3 runs
Lto – 1st or 2nd beaten 2l or less; 18f minimum;
Should have run in January or February, but not within last 14 days
Positives:
Previously run in Graded class
Negatives:
Horses coming from Cl4 or worse Novice Hurdles
Handicappers
Horses stepping up from 16f

RSA Chase – Gr1 Chase (5yo+) 24.5f
Age – 7yo & 8yo preferred, as allowance for 5yo is only 2lbs
Experience – 9 to 20 NH starts overall, with a minimum of 3 starts over fences
Lto – 1st or 2nd; 21f minimum; run within 52 days
Must have a minimum of 2 starts in current season
Negatives:
Horses coming from a hurdle race

Queen Mother Champion Chase – Gr1 Chase (5yo+) 24f
Experience – a minimum of 8 starts over fences
Cheltenham Experience – finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd at a previous Cheltenham Festival or previously won at Cheltenham
Lto – 1st, 2nd or 3rd or Fell
Positives:
Quoted at 10/1 or less in the betting
Previously won a chase over further than 16f

Coral Cup – Gr3 Hcap Hurdle (4yo+) 21f
Age – 6yo to 10yo, particularly 6yo & 7yo
Experience – not more than 20 career NH starts
Current season – 3-5 runs
Weight – 11-3 or less, unless Irish trained
Positives:
Horses that won 1 of last 6 starts
Irish-trained horses
Negatives:
Mares
English-trained horses with a break of 49 days or more
Horses that finished runner-up lto
Previous course winners
Horses coming from Novice Hcap Hurdles
Horses ridden by 5lb or 7lb claimers

That’s all I’ve got time for today. I’ll try and get the final two days up later.

Oldtimer

[BC]

Mar 14, 2011 12:39:59 GMT Old Timer said:

I think this belongs here, unless BC wants to move it into its own pigeon hole...

Oldtimer

I've just read through your report OT - fascinating information.

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Good to see you back Les.
Any news of Walter?

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Current competition entries (8):

Les; Nofinepix; Kimmy; Banger; Andyor; Old-Timer; 007; BlackCat

Keep coming!
_____

B - it's not the taking part but the winning that counts - C

[Les]

had an e-mail from wattie so looking forward to hearing from him tomorrow, things going ok with me ,and yourself ot?

[Les]

because i,ve not been on for a wee while a song for everyone
and lots of luck this week boys

[mcginty]

Include Me

[mitzi]

Not Forgettin Me

[BC]

Current competition entries (10):

Mitzi; McGinty; Les; Nofinepix; Kimmy; Banger; Andyor; Old-Timer; 007; BlackCat

[Les]

wont be on till the racing so put them up now

1.30,spirit son,11,win
2.05,medermit,6,win
3.20,hurricane fly,4,win





BC Edit to say that Les corrected this post further down.

[BC]

Mar 15, 2011 0:22:48 GMT Les said:

wont be on till the racing so put them up now

1.30,spirit son,11,win
2.05,medermit,6,win
3.20,hurricane fly,4,win

Hi Les,

I hope you see this before the racing, but if you can just have a quick look at rule 2, which says...

"2. For each of the four days, you make three selections:
A £50 win bet
A £25 each-way bet
And a £50 lay bet"

In other words, you need to select one win bet, one each way bet, and one lay.

Thanks.

BC

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My selections for tomorrow are:

WIN: 16:40,Quevega,3
E-W: 15:20,Menorah,6
LAY: 13:30,Cue CArd,2

[mitzi]

MY PICKS
WIN 2-40 SUNNYHILL BOY 11
E-W 4-00 A NEW STORY 6
LAY 4-40 BANJAXED GIRL 2
www.ukcw.co.uk/images/s milies/cat_saucer.gif[/img]

Returns = 0, 150, 56.25
(a nice 12/1 ew - well done)

[mcginty]

WIN 1-30 ZAIDPOUR 13
E-W 2-0 BLAZING BAILEY 1
LAY 3-20 OSCAR WHISKY 8



Returns = 0, 0, 57.14

[banger]

1st Day
WIN 2-05 Ghizao 4
E-W 5-15 Glenstal Abbey 12
LAY 4-00 Garde Champetre 1


Returns = 0, 0, 60

[liz]

I'd like to enter, please.

Win - 2.05 Captain Chris 1
EW - 2.05 Ghizao 4
Lay - 1.30 Hidden Universe 6

Returns = 350, 0, 53.13

[trebor]

5.15 Nadiya De La Vega (5) - EW -
2.05 Finian's Rainbow (3) - WIN -
4:00 Garde Champetre (1) - LAY -



Returns = 0, 0, 60

[trebor]

P.S
I think Bangers A-Z is broken G.G.G

[dennisg]

1.30 spirit son # 11 win

2.05 finlan's rainbow #3 ew

2.40 bensalem #8 lay


Returns = 0, 42.50, 0

[Nofinepix]

Win 5.15 Tullamore Dew
EW 4.40 Banjaxed Girl
Lay 2.05 Medermit

Returns = 0, 0, 68.18

[banger]

GEE,THEN, A GEE HEY, ENDING WITH A GEE SEE
A-Z -OK
Banger to end up broke

[007]

1.40 Cue Card WIN
3.20 Dunguib EW
4.40 Quevega LAY

Moral of the story - listen to what your dad says and do the opposite!


Returns = 0, 0, 0

Sorry, but... told you so !!

[BC]

BlackCat’s Cheltenham Day 1 mewsing’s
(spelling is correct)

I can feel it... the bookies are trembling (not). A very open day, and opinions will differ wildly no doubt. I’m going to try to identify a few I think might make the frame. But I should preface each race with the phrase “This is a hard one to call”! I may mention a few, but the ones in bold are my ones for the frame.

1:30 Stan James Supreme Novices´ Hurdle Grade 1 Cl1 2m110y

The form support’s Cue Card, and he’d be one for the frame. But enough has been written elsewhere as to why he might be vulnerable, and Paddy Power’s ‘win bets refunded if Cue Card wins’ offer shouldn’t be ignored after previous year’s hot pots Cousin Vinny and Dunguib were also “Paddied”. I could name 5 or 6 possibles that might be anything, but what’s the point of that? You can see them for yourself. But of them, I’ll join Barry Geraghty and plump for SPIRIT SON.

2:05 Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase Grade 1 Cl1 2m

You can see why Medermit and GHIZAO head the market, and I can’t argue against them. But another that could fill the frame at 10/1 is Realt Dubh, who’s had a couple of months to get it together after a battling win.

2:40 Stewart Family Spinal Research Handicap Chase Grade 3 Cl1 3m110y

Where’s my pin? It won’t be the only race I say that for. Push comes to shove and I’ll take SUNNYHILLBOY, Blazing Bailey, Great Endeavour, and Carole’s Legacy to fill the four places.

3:20 Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy Grade 1 Cl1 2m110y

Oh my! If I thought the withdrawal of Binocular might make it easier, I was wrong. I’ve won and lost money on Dunguib last year. He was nearly my EW punt in the competition. But whilst I’d love to put him up for the frame, I can’t help but feel that is sentiment and remembering the trainer’s comments from an interview I’d watched. The facts are that, whilst Dunguib might be a very good horse, (Supreme Novices 3rd still requires a good horse), there are better.

In this race, MENORAH looks to me to be very difficult to throw out of the frame. Hurricane Fly has some good wins, but the form doesn’t quite look as strong to me. Peddlars Cross beat Binocular earlier in the season, but I watched his last race and to my eyes, it wasn’t as convincing as it should have been over today’s 250/1 shot, Bygones of Brid. Oscar Whiskey is one for serious consideration, but I can’t help feeling he’ll find a few better today.

4:00 Glenfarclas Handicap Chase (A Cross Country Chase) Cl2 3m7f

Pin... you’re needed again. Garde Champetre might find the extra pounds he has to give away over horses he has previously beaten just peg him back this time. Without attempting much of an explanation, I’ll put up POKER DE SIVOLA to make the frame. I’ll also put up Lord Nellerie at a big fat 22/1, although I feel that may be out of desperation rather than judicious form study.

4:40 David Nicholson Mares´ Hurdle Grade 2 Cl1 2m4f

At last. A race where two of the contestants stand out and I won’t oppose them. QUEVEGA and Sparky May. To back Quevega, you have to trust that the trainer has worked his magic again. My experience of horseracing tells me that trust should be earned, and Quevega’s lack of a recent run does prevent me backing what is, in my cautious view, the best bet of the day.

5:15 Centenary Novices´ Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m4f110y

Pin time again - he’s been busy today. QUANTITATIVEEASING and Tullamore Dew are my couple for the frame in this one. But you can see yourself how difficult it is to pick winners amongst horses who are all going to find out which of them can step up from good performances into what will be later seen as lower class races.

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"So where's your money going today?" I hear you ask. Nowhere. It's staying at home with me!

Enjoy the races.

BC