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Post by mitzi on Mar 17, 2011 8:56:57 GMT
4-40 Junior12 WIN 2-05 Tarablaze 13 EW 3-20 Big Bucks 4 LAY
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Post by liz on Mar 17, 2011 9:09:24 GMT
WIN: 2.40 Somersby 11 EW: 3.20 Mourad 9 LAY: 4.00 Hollo Ladies 5
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Post by dennisg on Mar 17, 2011 9:58:36 GMT
brilliant ot, absolutley brilliant, you'd put many a so called racing journalist to shame. we all appreciate it. dennis.
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Post by dennisg on Mar 17, 2011 10:20:47 GMT
win 4.40 saddlers storm #6
ew 3.20 mourad #9
lay 4.00 storeymaker #19
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Post by Ginger on Mar 17, 2011 11:09:44 GMT
14:05,Alfie Spinner,16,E/W 15:20,Grands Crus,8,WIN 16:00,Aigle D`or,7,LAY ,
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Post by banger on Mar 17, 2011 11:45:58 GMT
I agree with all that OT
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Post by Kimmy on Mar 17, 2011 11:48:26 GMT
Win. 2.40. tartak.
E/W. 4.00. Holmwood Legend.
Lay. 1.30 Robinson Collonges.
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007
New Member
Shaken, not stirred.
Posts: 5
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Post by 007 on Mar 17, 2011 11:54:49 GMT
2.05 Lush Life - win 2.40 Voy por Ustades - e/w 3.20 Big Bucks - lay
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Post by BC on Mar 17, 2011 12:02:13 GMT
Win - 14:40,Tartak,12 (sorry KP) E/W - 16:00,Tatenhan,1 Lay - 14:40,Kalahari King,6
I will probably pay for changing my mind!
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Post by andyor on Mar 17, 2011 12:29:39 GMT
400 Edgbriar 4 win
320 Restless Harry 11 ew
130 Mr Thriller 6 lay
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Post by Les on Mar 17, 2011 12:36:46 GMT
my thought for tomorrow is to get on to PANDORAMA before the price goes to low get on today
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Post by BC on Mar 17, 2011 12:37:21 GMT
BlackCat’s Cheltenham Day 3 mewsing’s(spelling is still correct) A day to try taking the best horse in the race and forget about the weight... 3.20After yesterday's egg-on-face performanace, I'm still taking BIG BUCKS to bring home the bucks. He's the proven horse both in career and recent form. Those for the frame might come from a number of horses, but I'd take Mourad to follow Big Bucks home. Of the remainder, Grand Crus and Fiveforthree do look like very good horses in the making, but I'm going to fill the frame with 20/1 Zaynar. A very good animal whose one negative (and it's a pretty big negative) is the distance. But hey ho, you pays your money and takes your chances. Here's my one(s) for the frame in the other races... 1:30 Blazing Tempo 2:05 Knockara Beau and Lush Life 2:40 Tartak and Voy Por Ustades 4:00 Tatenham and Consigliere 4:40 Can't Buy Time Whatever you're on, the very best of luck with them.
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Post by Nofinepix on Mar 17, 2011 13:18:20 GMT
Win 1.30 Noble Prince EW 2.05 Kayf Aramis Lay 3.20 Grand Crus
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Post by Old Timer on Mar 17, 2011 13:37:06 GMT
Sorry, rushed today as I had to go for my annual fingerprinting and photograph at the Immigration Office, which took 4 hours out of the day – 30 minutes for the operation and 3½ hours navigating our traffic. What didn’t help today is that they are still clearing up the numerous fallen trees after yesterday’s storm, which included hail – yes hail this close to the equator!
Cheltenham 15.20 Gr 1 Hurdle 1482 24f gd – 14 Run (13 at best)
Cons F/C – Big Buck’s/Grands Crus; Fiveforthree; Mourad Cons others – None Prob – Big Buck’s; Grands Crus; Fiveforthree AR – Big Buck’s; Fiveforthree; Celestial Halo; Berties Dream; Grands Crus 9/9 Grans Crus – has done everything asked of him so far including winning over C&D, but possibly would have preferred the rains to come. 9/9 Mourad – capable enough hurdler, but the Irish don’t have a great record in this race, plus the jockey continued his 20+ losing streak here for the stable yesterday. 8/9 Big Buck’s – has won this the past two years and doesn’t look to be slowing down any. One of Nicholls Festival bankers?? 8/9 Ashkazar – stable second string to Grans Crus and lacks class to win this 8/9 Celestial Halo – Nicholls second string and not proven at this distance. Now a N/R
This looks like a 2-horse race, but while I can’t deny Big Buck’s chance of a hat-trick, the price is too small for me.
Cheltenham 16.00 Gr 3 Hcap Chase 428 (134.0) 22f gd – 21 Run (20 at best)
Cons F/C – Quartz De Thaix; You’re The Top; Beautiful Sound Cons others – Holmwood Legend; Crescent Island Prob – Quartz De Thaix; Beautiful Sound; Holmwood Legend AR – Tatenen; Hollo Ladies; Piraya; Aigle D’Or; Aimigayle
11/11 Gansey – not sure Cheltenham is Sue Smith’s favourite course, plus big step up in class and was all out to win over 20f at Newcastle last month. 10/11 Edgbriar – bit worried he’s coming from a 16f, but is French bred and both a course and distance winner. Also a little worried only 1 winner has carried more weight. 9/11 Quartz De Thaix – has a similar profile to the 2 previous winners that Venetia Williams has saddled in this race in the past 5 years and looks more likely than her other 2 entries, plus is French bred. 9/11 Call me A Legend –good effort be distant 2nd in the Victor Channdlet at Ascot back in January, but very disappointing lto at Wincanton.
I think Quartz De Thaix might be the one here, plus prefer Edgbriar to Gansey as the danger.
Cheltenham 16.40 Cl 2 Hcap Chase 300 (133.4) 25.5f gd – 24 Run
Cons F/C – Junior/Galaxy Rock Cons others – Alderley Rover/Fredo; Mostly Bob; Far More Serious Prob – Junior/Galaxy Rock; Mostly Bob AR – Palypso De Creek; Galant Nuit; Cornish Set; Fasel; Can’t Buy Time
9/10 Pomme Tiepy – Irish trained, which is not a good sign 9/10 Galaxy Rock – only had 4 chase starts and making HCh debut today, but Jonjo likes these types of races. 9/10 Khachaturian – McCain has won this twice in the past few years and Khachaturian finished 5th to stablemate Ballabriggs last year off a 3lbs higher mark.
Another race that is something of a blind punt, but I think an a little e/w on Khachaturian might do the trick, with perhaps a saver on Galaxy Rock.
I did have a quick look at the 14.05, but had no fewer than 9 possible and no time to narrow them down. Mr Moonshine comes out on top, but not a race for me.
Oldtimer
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Post by Old Timer on Mar 17, 2011 13:44:55 GMT
Tough picking today, especially the way it's been
4.00 Quartz De Thaix (9) - Win 4.40 Khachaturian (15) - E/W 3.20 Mourad (9) - Lay
Oldtimer
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Post by BC on Mar 17, 2011 18:25:47 GMT
Day 3 resultsHot, hot, hot.The biggest winner found so far was by Kimmy at 25/1, propelling him to top spot with £1,232.64. McGinty's a little way back in third with £888.81, and has Les for company in third on £861.67. Also in profit are Liz (£774.45) and Banger (£660.00). The rest of us need to find the wind for our our sails, if we're to go from motley crew to captain of the ship. The full table is here (complete with calculations): Cheltenham Challenge TableAs always, please check your scores for any errors, and let me know if you find any. I appear to be doing OK at the moment, or is it that you just haven't checked yet? BC
P.S. I have added a 'Rule 10' to the rules (would you believe) due to an event that I should have foreseen. (And 'no' it has nothing to do with the protester in the 2.40). If it affects the final score tomorrow, I have a plan 'B', so I'll ensure the affected tipster doesn't lose out - especially with such a prestigious prize up for grabs!
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Post by Les on Mar 17, 2011 21:28:22 GMT
wont be on tomorrow so going down in a blaze of glory,perhaps
3.20,pandorama,11,,win 3.20,carruthers,2,e/w 3.20,imperial commander,lay
best of luck and thank you all for a good cheltenham
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Post by BC on Mar 17, 2011 22:25:37 GMT
wont be on tomorrow so going down in a blaze of glory,perhaps 3.20,pandorama,11,,win 3.20,carruthers,2,e/w 3.20,imperial commander,lay best of luck and thank you all for a good cheltenham Hey Les, thanks for taking part. You like that pandorama don't you. Have a great day tomorrow.
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Post by BC on Mar 17, 2011 22:34:29 GMT
More out of desperation than hope... WIN: 13:30 Houblon Des Obeaux,6 E/W: 16:40 Son of Flicka,1 LAY: 15:20 Kauto Star,6 BC
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Post by BC on Mar 17, 2011 22:57:05 GMT
BlackCat’s Cheltenham Day 4 mewsing’s(spelling really is still correct) Most years, I don't have time to go through every race. And after this year, I think that I'll revert to that excuse. Huge fields of similar grade/form horses - I don't know how you guys do it. Really I don't. Hat's off to you. My only, small Cheltenham bet came off today (Thursday) with Big Bucks, so I'm happy. I won't be risking any of it on Friday though. 3.20I knew they'd run Kauto Star, but I'd much rather they put him out in a field and let him watch this year's on TV. Much as I'd love to see him in the winners enclosure with a third Gold Cup, I doubt he'll even make the frame. Let's hope he makes it round in one piece. Long Run's win over KS has marked him out as second favourite, but I don't think he beat the real Kauto, so I'm going to stick my neck out and and say there will be three or even four horses ahead of him. IMPERIAL COMMANDER proved last year he is the real deal, and if he's anywhere like in the same form, I personally don't think anything else will get near him again. Denman is the same age as Kauto, (11), but I think he has retained more of his ability. So I'm predicting we see the same 1-2 as last year. As pointed out elsewhere by Les, Pandorama looks to be a very good prospect for the highest honour, although unlike Les, I think he may have to wait until next year to claim the prize - so 3rd for me. One more I'll give a mention to is Neptune Collonges, who if things go wrong for others might be up to making the frame at 40/1. Here's a few bigger priced selections to make frame in the other races... 1:30 Houblon Des Obeaux 28/1 and Local Hero 25/1 2:05 Get me out of here 16/1 2:40 Mossley 16/1 4:00 Dante's Star 10/1 4:40 Son of Flicka 33/1 and Indian Dandaie 20/1 5:15 Pidgeon Island 20/1 and Pepe Simo 18/1 As yesterday, whatever you're on, the very best of luck with them. BC
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Post by trebor on Mar 18, 2011 7:08:23 GMT
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Post by liz on Mar 18, 2011 7:57:02 GMT
WIN: 2.40 - Join Together 10
EW: 4.40 - Qaspal 8
LAY: 3.20 - Pandorama 11
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Post by mitzi on Mar 18, 2011 8:39:42 GMT
WIN 4-40 Siberian Tiger 10 EW 4-00 Gentle George 6 LAY 3-20 Denman 4
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Post by mcginty on Mar 18, 2011 8:44:46 GMT
WIN 2-40 Teaforthree 20 EW 3-20 Tidal Bay 12 LAY 1-30 Grandouet 5
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Post by banger on Mar 18, 2011 9:01:52 GMT
WIN 5-15 I'msingingtheblues 5 EW 1-30 Zarakandar 20 Lay 3-20 Long Run 8
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Post by andyor on Mar 18, 2011 10:22:05 GMT
400 Gone To Lunch 7 Win
205 Ski Sunday 9 EW
320 Midnight Chase 9 Lay
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Post by dennisg on Mar 18, 2011 10:23:39 GMT
win 2.40 bobs worth #3
ew 3.20 imperial commander #5
lay 1.30 sir pitt #14
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007
New Member
Shaken, not stirred.
Posts: 5
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Post by 007 on Mar 18, 2011 10:27:54 GMT
3.20 Pandorama win 5.15 Chaninbar e/w 2.40 Bobs Worth lay
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Post by Old Timer on Mar 18, 2011 12:54:59 GMT
Cheltenham 13.30 Gr 1 4yo Hurdle 570 17f gd – 23 Run
Cons F/C – Grandouet; Smad Place; Sam Winner/Zarkandar Cons others – None Prob – Grandouet; Zarkandar; Smad Place AR – Sailors Warn; Unaccompanied; Tillashow; Zarkandar; Sam Winner
7/7 Unaccompanied – has won both his starts to date, the latest a Gr1 on hv at Leopardstown last month. However, he’s bucking the odds as only 2 unbeaten horses have won the race in the past 11 years and many have tried. 6/7 Brampour – has only won 1 of his 2 starts over hurdles, and 16 of the last 17 winners had won at least 2. With Sam Winner and Zarkandar also in the field, also looks to be the third string to Nicholls bow. 6/7 Grandouet – a little more experienced than most in the field, having won 1 of his 2 starts in France as a 3yo last season. Finished a well beaten 2nd to Sam Winner, but well clear of the rest in the trial for this here in November, but has progressed since, beating A Media Luz at Newbury in December and then a comfortable winner at Ascot in January. With Geraghty onboard looks to be Henderson’s first best hope, although McCoy is on A Media Luz and he also runs the maiden Molotof. Looks to fit the Henderson/Geraghty winning parameters, except that he’s likely to start in the first 2 in the betting. 6/7 Smad Place – his only failing is in not winning at least 50% of his hurdle starts to date, although he has won 2 of his 3 starts since coming over from France, at Newbury in November and at Wincanton last month. The King/Thornton combination on display here, and while King normally saddles 5-7yo winners, Thornton winners for the stable come in non-handicaps at less than 10/1, so that fits.
Despite the large field and little form with which to work, it’s a race where concentration should be on those at the front end of the betting – 12 of the last 17 winners were in the top 4 of the betting, the others starting at 20/1 (twice), 16/1 (twice) and 14/1. Knocking out any that haven’t won at least twice over hurdles (16 of the last 17 winners had) removes 15 from further consideration.
While the are a few minor question marks, I think I have to go with Grandouet as the most likely from Smad Place perhaps.
Cheltenham 14.05 Gr 3 Hcap Hurdle 199 (139.3) 17f gd – 28 Run (27 at best)
Cons F/C – Alaivan/Alarazi; Blackstairmountain; Dirar Cons others – None Prob – Alarazi; Alaivan; Blackstairmountain/Dirar AR – Soldatino; Final Approach; Blackstairmountain; Get Me Out Of Here; Alarazi
8/8 Hunterview – right age and not over-raced this season with 4 starts, winning a Cl2 HHd at Musselburgh lto. However, ridden by a claimer, plus looks to be the stable’s second string. 8/8 Ciceron – seems to fit the trends quite nicely, having won his last 2 starts in Cl2 HHd at Taunton and 5 races overall this season. However, Venetia usually does her Cheltenham winning on a Thursday and she let me down yesterday. 8/8 Alarazi – has a nice profile for this even though there has only been one 7yo winner in the past 15 renewals. Carries a 6lbs penalty for winning the Imperial Cup last Saturday, but that’s not an impossible task and he has a legitimate shot at picking up the bonus If those comprise the most likely trio, I can also make some sort of a case for the following: Notus De La Tour; Inventor; Dirar and Secret Dancer.
While I have to seriously consider Alarazi, I also find Secret Dancer a very interesting proposition too, as he was 5th in last year’s renewal off a 5lbs higher mark. He ran a decent race to finish 5th to Art Professor over C&D here in January and was withdrawn when fancied the other day (at least by me). Thus I have to go e/w with Secret Dancer and a saver on Alarazi.
Cheltenham 15.20 Gr 1 Chase 2851 26.5f gd – 14 Run
Cons F/C – Kauto Star/Kempes; Imperial Commander/Long Run Cons others – None Prob – Imperial Commander; Kauto Star/Long Run AR – Kauto Star; Imperial Commander; Long Run; Denman; Albertas Run
10/11 Long Run – The big question is whether or not this has come a year too soon, as he is only a 6yo and no horse of that age has won the last 15 renewals; 1963 was the last I believe. However, he is a second season chaser (finished 3rd in the RSA here last year) and the way he won the delayed King George VI in January marks his as a horse with a big future. 9/11 Imperial Commander – the reigning champion after proving too good for Denman last year when Kauto Star fell. Did not jump well at Aintree after though and UR in the Totesport Bowl. Only race since was when he won the Betfair at Haydock in November and that is a serious negative, as all recent winners (15 years) have had between 2 and 5 season starts. Another negative is his age, as Cool Dawn in ’98 is the only 10yo to win since ’93, and more than 75 have tried. 9/11 Kempes – Irish contender who at least falls in the right age group slot. Won the Irish Hennessy in fine style last month, but is stepping up in class of opposition today. Second season chaser, so fits the bill there, but no Cheltenham experience.
I’m afraid I have to pass on Kauto Star’s chances, as great horse that he has been, age seems to be starting to tell and no 11yo or older has won since 1969, more than 30 having failed in the past 15 years. Nor do I give much for Denman’s chances, as I think he was rather a one-season wonder and will never recapture that level again.
In many ways it’s an open race, but I shall be very surprised if they can keep Long Run out of the frame.
Sadly no time for a write-up on the whys and wherefores for the final race at this year’s Cheltenham Festival, the Grand Annual, but the pair that interest me most here are: 9/9 Anquetta – the only negative being he’s ridden by a claimer 8/9 Mister Stickler – preferred to the stable’s Oh Crick who has won this in the past.
Right, that’s all I’ve got time for today.
Oldtimer
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Post by Nofinepix on Mar 18, 2011 13:02:48 GMT
Win 1.30 Unaccompanied EW 4.40 Higgy's Boy Lay 4.40 Sir Des Champs
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