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Post by havefun on Jun 14, 2023 11:54:47 GMT
Hi BC Agree with your last bit below
Whatever his motives were and despite the seemingly underhanded way he went about it, I am grateful to have read his letters. I wouldn't have got anywhere without them
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Post by numpty on Jun 15, 2023 8:22:03 GMT
Newbury (going forecast G some GF watering) Market odds from 07.50. RP verdict Lyndon B (1 pundit agrees 13 oppose) 4.00 Early market expected no's 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9 indicating an open contest. Theoretical strong fav 11/4, contender 11/2, nor expected longer than 11/1.
Columns*: early market/£ class/consistency/2 sets hcap ratings
1. X00X0 = 2* 2. X000X = 2* 3. X0X0X = 3* Top Secret 4 tips (D3) (7/1 mkt). LTO 26 +19lb? -1cls*. 2/12 -1L* challenging drifted left kept on finish. Good draw* 4. X0X00 = 2* 5. XX0X0 = 3* Able Kane (D3) (11/1). LTO 20 =wgt =cls B Millman 16%/R Coakley 16% past 14 days. 4/9 -3 3/4L? disputed lead no extra finish? Poor draw? 6. XXXXX = 5* Persuasion 3 tips (D2) (BF?) (11/2). LTO 19 -1lb =cls D&N Barron 24%/W Buick 12% past 14 days. 3/9 -2 1/4L headway went 3rd kept on. Iffy draw? 7. XXXXX = 5* Hickory 1 tip (D3) BF2?) (6/1). LTO 36? -1lb =cls J Fanshawe 13%/D Muscutt 8% past 14 days. 4/6 -4 1/2L? ridden out paced rom over one furlong out? Good draw* 8. 00000 = 0* 9. 00000 = 0* 10. 00000 = 0* 11.00000 = 0* 12. 00000 = 0*
My comment: Dutch 6 and 7 to take an interest. ATR form verdict in comparison with the above. Mister Bluebird is highly regarded after his game effort to win at Goodwood on Sunday, but a 5lb penalty demands more of him and only a personal best will suffice. With that in mind, it might pay to focus more attention on PERSUASION, who runs off 7lb lower than his last winning mark and, given William Buick was in the saddle for that success, the jockey booking suggests connections are confident of another big run. Able Kane, Flying Secret and King Cabo also warrant respect. Top Tip: PERSUASION (6) Watch out for: MISTER BLUEBIRD (4)
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Post by numpty on Jun 17, 2023 6:31:47 GMT
Back to the basic 'elementary mechanical procedure' exactly as per with no (subject to further consideration'. Market odds from 07.20.
Sandown (going forecast G some GF round course, GF sprint course - watered) 1. Great State 3 (13/8) 3. Tajalla 3 (3/1) 4. Perduika 6 (7/2)
York (going forecast GF some G watering) 3. Rabaah 7 (11/1) 6. Garner 5 (14/1) 11. Quinault 3 (7/1)
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Post by numpty on Jun 20, 2023 8:09:40 GMT
This is the feature race at Ascot on day 1, just a short assessment for interest.
Royal Ascot (going Str cse GF -watered) Market odds from 08.05. 3.40 Early market expected no's 6, 7, 10, 12, 19 indicating a win restricted to these.
6. Manaccan 5*. 2 tips (C&D2D2) (11/2 mkt). LTO 45? -5lb = class F Dettori 29% past 30 days. LTO 3/4 -1 1/2L pressed winner no extra lost 2nd hung left. Midfield draw? 10. Collangatta 3*. 3 tips (D3) (9/2). LTO 122? =12lb? =class 1/10 +1/2L* Flemington Aus. Low draw? 12. Highfield Princess 5* 6 tips (DC&D2) (5/2). LTO 34 -8lb =class. 2/10 -1/2L* led ridden kept on headed finish. Midfield draw? 19. Dramatised 4*. 2 tips (C&DD2) (8/1). LTO 24 +3lb =class. 1/13 +1L* ridden led ran on well * Good high draw*
My comment: Dramatised each-way looks OK on paper just to take an interest. ATR form verdict in comparison with the above. The King's Stand serves up a fascinating contest, with 19 runners from four different countries lining up to wage war over the minimum trip. Highfield Princess completed a Group 1 hat-trick last term and gave a good account when conceding weight all round to finish runner-up in the Duke Of York Stakes last time out. The six-year-old mare is a worthy favourite, but marginal preference goes to the progressive MANACCAN, who could have more to come. Despite being drawn away from the winner, the John Ryan-trained colt took another step forward to finish third in the Palace House Stakes and he may go close on this preferred sounder surface. Coolangatta arrives after claiming Group 1 honours at Flemington and is worthy of consideration, while Twilight Gleaming finished second over course and distance in the Queen Mary in 2021 and completes the shortlist. Top Tip: MANACCAN (6) Watch out for: HIGHFIELD PRINCESS (12)
Timeform erdict HIGHFIELD PRINCESS ran a race full of promise under a penalty in the Duke of York on her reappearance and is taken to gain the fourth Group 1 success of an extraordinary career which began in ordinary handicaps. This race has gone the way of Australian-trained horses 5 times in the last 20 years and Lightning Stakes winner Coolangatta is feared most ahead of Dramatised. The shortlist is completed by Manaccan, the mount of Frankie Dettori, whose sole win in this came on Lochsong back in 1994. Timeform 1-2-3 HIGHFIELD PRINCESS (12)COOLANGATTA (10)DRAMATISED (19)
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Post by numpty on Jun 21, 2023 7:13:18 GMT
Very basic today with those that look better for form from six top £ class, otherwise it's too difficult for me.
Royal Ascot (going forecast G some GS places round course) Market odds from 07.50. 2. Tempus (40/1 mkt) 3. Reach For The Moon (12/1) 6. Awaal (14/1) 7. Intelligent (8/1)
My comment: Dutch them ATR form verdict in comparison with the above. A high-quality renewal and, while the likes Reach For The Moon and Positive are both tempting for each-way players, history is against them in terms of weight-carrying performances, as no winner of this contest has carried more than 9st-5lb in the last 20 years. However, one that ideally fits the bill is GHALY, who is relatively unexposed and is competitively weighted for one so high in the ratings. The trip and ground are ideal and, with Oisin Murphy in the saddle, he has an awful lot going for him as a fresh horse on his seasonal debut. Perotto has dropped to an attractive mark and is feared most, while Tempus and Astro King, who were third and fourth respectively in this last year, also command respect. Top Tip: GHALY (10) Watch out for: TEMPUS (2)
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Post by numpty on Jul 1, 2023 11:38:02 GMT
Newmarket (going forecast G Watered) Market odds from 12.20. 1.50 Market expected no's 2, 4, 5 indicating a win nrestricted to these.
1. 0* (11/2 mkt) 2. 4* (85/40) Aldaary 7 tips (D3) 3. 2* (14/1) 4. 3* (4/1) Berkshire Shadow 3 tips (D) 5. 3* 3/1) Pogo 4 tips (C&D2D2) 6. 1* (28/1)
My Comment: Omitted Pogo due to lack of recent consistency rating. Dutch 2 and 4. ATR for m verdict in comparison with the above. ALDAARY is unbeaten in his last three starts, with the latest of those victories coming at Haydock in a Listed contest in May last year. That performance earned him a rating of 116 and he looks the one to beat. Pogo took this race 12 months ago and will find this a lot easier than the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot last time, so he has to be considered, along with the recent John Of Gaunt victor Jumbly, who has William Buick booked.
Top Tip: ALDAARY (2) Watch out for: POGO (5)
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Post by numpty on Jul 13, 2023 8:02:22 GMT
Still hanging in here in the off-chance I may be given authority to access admin.
Carlisle (going forecast GS showers) Market odds from 08.50 3.25 Sophia's Starlight 4 (2/1) Slainte Mhath 11 (3/1) Newbury (going forecast GS showers) 7.50 Fleet Admiral 11 (9/2) Cracksking 11 (11/2) Tony Montanna 15 (8/11)
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Post by numpty on Jul 14, 2023 6:44:22 GMT
Market odds from around 07.05
Yor 2.05 Northern Express 7 (3/1) 5/2 won Another Investment 9 (9/2) Bopero 14 (13/2) Asc 4.35 Intricacy 8 (3/1) 2/1 won Lion Kingdom 8 (9/2) Elraaed 11 (10/3) 6/1 3rd Asc 5.10 Havana Pusey 8 (7/2) Haymaker 8 (9/2) 5/2 2nd Spanish Star 8 (5/1) Che 20.05 Shalaa Asker 6 (5/1) Count D'Orsay 7 (10/3) 9/2 won Roman Dragon 10 ( 7/2 5/2 2nd
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Post by numpty on Jul 15, 2023 7:06:10 GMT
Che 3.15 First Of May 5 Seantrash 9 Devine Libra 10 Asc 3.30 Real Dream 5 Apparate 10 Crescent Lake 6 Che 3.52 Banderas 6 Two Brothers 6 Percy Jones 10 Asc 4.05 La Yakel 6 Al Nafir 17 Struth 15 Sal 8.15 Mr Feedom 3 Lexington Knight 4 Silastar 8
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Post by numpty on Jul 20, 2023 8:34:18 GMT
Try a VDW concept contest, with some reservation due to the element of possible thunderstorms interfering.
Hamilton (going forecast G some GF thunderstorms) Market odds from 09.10. J Goldie top track trainer. 3.25 Market expected no's 3, 1, 5 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 5/4, contender 5/2, not expecte longer than 5/1. 3. Bashful rates 6 (3/1 mkt) D tudhope up 17% past month 1. Zozimus 6 (9/2) 5. Shine On Brendan 6 (7/2) J Goldie 15% past month MY comment: Not much work done on 'subject to other consideration' so probably dutch Bashful and Shine On Breandan at the current odds. ATR form verdict in comparison with the above. Having defeated Shine On Brendan over course and distance in May, BASHFUL showed the benefit of recent wind surgery when following up at Newcastle last month. Iain Jardine's charge is now 5lb higher back on turf, but that might not be enough to stop him. The aforementioned must be considered following his latest Musselburgh success, while the versatile Detective can mount a serious challenge too. Top Tip: BASHFUL (3) Watch out for: SHINE ON BRENDAN (5)
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Post by numpty on Jul 20, 2023 15:34:37 GMT
Worcester (going forecast G some GF watering - showers) Market odds from 4.20 5.05 Captain Ivan (9/4), Gold Link (3/1) 5.40 Dicey Reilly (6/4), Princess Midnight (4/1) 6.10 Charlie My Boy (3/1), Rock The House (5/1) 7.50 Teeceethree (7/2), Woodie Flash (9/2) - or/ Clapton Hill (7/2), Woodie Flash (9/2)
My comment: Dutch them
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Post by numpty on Jul 21, 2023 7:49:09 GMT
OK let's go with the flow just three simple Van der Wheil style assessments to 'narrow the field' with a very basic 'elementary mechanical procedure' where the 8.05 is a 'key' race and none have been 'subject to other consideration', or even whether 'there is a winner in the race not of the race'. If you understand all that VDW speak you will know what to do to decide on the best bet in each race. Newmarket (going forecast G some GF) Market odds from 08.20. C Appleby top track trainer with runners 7.30, 8.05. 7.30 Royal Symbol (11/4), Ziryab (11/4), Like A Tiger (15/2). 8.04 Star Guest (9/4), Spohia's Starlight (7/2), Peony (6/1) 8.40 Conquistador (1/1), Isle Of Lismore (5/1), Skallywag Bay (7/1)
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Post by numpty on Jul 22, 2023 7:20:17 GMT
Another 'key' race to consider.
Newbury (going forecast G watered - showers) Market odds from 07.45. RP selects Rowayan (6 pundits agree 8 oppose) 5.20 Early market expected numbers 6, 1, 7, 2. Theoretical strong fav 9/4, contender 9/2, not expected longer than 9/1.
6. Rowayeh rates 3 (11/4 mkt) 6 tips D2. J Crowley top track jockey up 19% past month. Best draw. 1. Sparks Fly 11 (10/3) 3 tips D5. OK draw. 7. Orchid Bloom 5 (5/1) 1 tip. W Haggas 24% past month. 2nd best draw. 2. Don't Tell Claire 5 (8/1) 1 tip D4. W Buick up 27% past month. Iffy draw?
My comment: Either take just Rowayan or no's 6, 7, 2 at 1 point each for interest? Fillies so let's hope their heads are straight and watch for market moves to give any kind of indication. ATR form verdict in comparison with the above. With six consecutive wins, Sparks Fly has made rapid progress since she switched to turf in April. Laura Pearson has been in the saddle for the last four of those successes and it would be folly to suggest another bold effort wasn't possible. However, this is an ease in grade for DON'T TELL CLAIRE, whose game second in the Kensington Palace at Royal Ascot is of a higher standard and earns her a slender vote of confidence. Conservationist and Eximious also appeal strongly at this level. Top Tip: DON'T TELL CLAIRE (2) Watch out for: SPARKS FLY (1) Timeform Verdict There should be more to come from ROWAYEH who can complete a hat-trick and bring to an end the remarkable winning run of Sparks Fly, who was competing in 0-60s in the spring but now finds herself top weight in a good quality fillies' handicap. Don't Tell Claire completes the shortlist. Timeform 1-2-3 ROWAYEH (6)SPARKS FLY (1)DON'T TELL CLAIRE (2)
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Post by numpty on Jul 24, 2023 9:23:48 GMT
Keep plugging away with very basic 'elementary mechanical procedures' relying on AtTheRace form verdict to provide some 'subject to other consideration'.
Windsor (G showers) Market odds from 08.50. 7.50 Early market expected no's 10, 6, 5, 7, 2 indicating an open contest. Theoretical strong fav 2/1, contender 4/1, not expected longer than 8/1. 10. Lady Dreamer 5 (7/2) 3 tips C&D 6. Sassy Belle 8 (7/2) 5 tips D 5. The Cruising Lord 5 (5/1) 4 tips D3 My comment: Dutch Lady Dreamer and Sassy Belle at current odds. ATR form verdict in comparison with the above. LADY DREAMER ran on well to win by half a length over course and distance at the beginning of the month and she looks reasonably weighted off a mark of 75 for her handicap debut. As a three-year-old, she gets weight from her elders and, with Sean Levey keeping the ride, she can go well again. Recent course second Airshow might be her most serious rival, while Alcazan has a chance on her better form. Top Tip: LADY DREAMER (10)
8.20 Early market no's 6, 4, 3, 2, 1 indicating an open contest. Theoretical strong fav 7/4, contender 7/2, not expected longer than 7/1. 6. Zarga 9 (5/2) 4 tips BF? 4. Decoration 10 (7/2) 4 tips C&D 3. Chealamy 8 (7/1) 1 tip MY comment: Dutch Zarga and Decoration at current odds. ATR form verdict in comparison with the above. Decoration may prove popular here after the daughter of Frankel got off the mark over C&D earlier this month, but a mark of 80 looks high enough and she will need to improve again to be successful. BLUE MISSILE won at the second attempt as a juvenile but pulled too hard to have any chance on her return in Listed class at Goodwood in May. This represents a big drop in class and she should go well, with Ludmilla and Zarga others to consider. ATR Top Tip: BLUE MISSILE (2) Watch out for: DECORATION (4)
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