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Post by Old Timer on May 28, 2011 11:03:33 GMT
Not my type of race Les, but good luck. Strange as it may seem I thought it was a poor day's racing today!
Oldtimer
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Post by BC on Jun 14, 2011 13:26:51 GMT
Frankel 345A is surely a banker VDW bet @2/5.
But equally as good a bet, maybe even stronger, in the 230A coming up in a few minutes. With the early prices of Canford Cliffs (6/4) and Goldicova (7/4) giving 1/3. Surely nothing else can win can it? And having two allows for one to have an off day.
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Post by Les on Aug 2, 2011 11:06:40 GMT
hi all..the 4.00 cattrick some class/speed ratings bhb ratings=class,topspeed = speed
liberty ship..............54.......56.......62lto spirit of coniston.....59.......28.......48 ansrasta.................46.......37.......51 inde country............16......./.........38 blown it...................17......50.......33 kalahari desert........13......29.......38 hold on tiger............11....../..........10 piste........................./........27........38 future gem...............24....../.........../
these are topspeeds ratings unadjusted for this race will then add the top bhb ratings from the opposition to these, horses ie if they were top weight the top opposition was 2nd topweight , then will do the opposite for the race to come giving this gives you
liberty ship....................63.......61.......72 spirit of coniston...........53........32.......46 andrasta.......................50......../..........37 inde country..................15......../..........37 blow it...........................11........49.......36 kashmiri desert..............2.........28........29 hold on tiger..................5........./...........6 piste.............................../..........35........32 future gem.....................22......./............/
when class by bhb rating is taken into consideration liberty ship should win this as no other horse is within 8 points of any of its 3 last races no weight has been taken into consideration at all just class by bhb rating and topspeed
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Post by Old Timer on Aug 2, 2011 12:53:37 GMT
Les,
Looks to have a good chance on your logic I must admit. However, haven't had a look at this race, as it's way below the level that I look at and I only have records for Cl4 handicaps and above. However, at a very brief look I have Liberty Ship roughly 1.5lbs better in than Andrasta, although Blown It could be a danger despite not having won for 2 years.
However, no time to look at the race properly, so I'll pass, but wish you luck with Liberty Ship.
OT
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Post by Old Timer on Aug 2, 2011 15:09:22 GMT
Unlucky Les, just done by the weight from what I could make of the text commentary. Obviously someone knew something, as Blown It hadn't won for a couple of years, though the stable's been in good form.
OT
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Post by numpty on May 30, 2023 14:52:06 GMT
I have not posted for a long time and just came on to see how things are going. Alas, not well it seems the same as many of the old boards. Pity, as I used to communicate with 'oldtimer' elsewhere and i presume he is no long er with us. His detailed 'subject to other considerations' were as good as you get anywhere. There is stuff from me in the archive under my 'jackform' collected by 'oldtimer', and useful to followers of the Van der Wheil principles.
Not much on the UK mailnad casrd to get excited about today, but I have taken a look at the Nottingham 8.25 and will post a quick'working platform' for anyone passing. (I am 87 by the way and have been doing this off and on since the start in 1978, so I at least have the experience under my belt).
Nottingham (going forecast GF some G watered) Bet market odds shown from 3.10. To track trainer M Appleby, but not performing well recently. This is a working platform maximum stars 5* from the early market/£ class/consistency/and 2 hndicap ratings.
2. XXXXX = 5* Vitralite (12/5 mkt) LTO 29 (D2) (BF?) 5. 000XX = 2* Tipperary Moon (17/2) LTO 36? (BF?) 6. XXXXX = 5* Bobby Dassler (4/1) LTO 28. 8. OOXOO = 1 Eleven Eleven (10/1) LTO 35? (D2) 11. XXOOO = 2* Back From Dubai (8/1) LTO 27 (D4) (BF)
My comment: I have not done much (subject to further consideration) where three are on a retrieve mission. Vitralite and Bobby Dassler look best to be dutched at early market odds IMO.
ATR form verdict in comparison with the above. Vitralite (third) and BOBBY DASSLER (fourth) are closely-matched judged on their encounter at Bath earlier this month and they look the duo to concentrate on. The first-named has thrived since he returned to these shores to race for Sean Woods and again looks set for another bold showing. However, Bobby Dassler was short of room at a crucial stage in that contest and, now 4lb better off with that rival, he can reverse the form. Marayel and Eleven Eleven also make the shortlist.
Top Tip: BOBBY DASSLER (6)
Watch out for: VITRALITE (2)
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Post by numpty on May 31, 2023 13:58:16 GMT
Another evening race this time and it is a VDW 'key' race IMO (I will explain that at another time for anyone interested ).
Cartmel (going forecast G watering) Market odds from 2.20. 7.50 Market expected no's 2, 6 indicating a win from these, although I will not consider 6 as it is outside the long hcap. Theoretical strong fav 1/3, contender 6/4, not expected longer than 3/1.
1. XXOOO = 2* 2*. XXXXX = 5* Grey Skies (2/1 mkt) LTO 35? D McCain 19%/B Hughes 19% past month 3. OXXXX = 4* Hidden Depths (8/1) LTO 30. 4. OOOOO = O* 6*. XOXXX = 4* Post No Bills (2/1) LTO 13*. S Bowen up 21% past month
My comment: Grey Skies is the only one I would consider at current market odds.
ATR form verdict in comparison with the above. GREY SKIES might have been fortunate to win a match race when his only rival unseated the rider after the final fence at Sedgefield on his penultimate start, but there was plenty to like about the performance he posted when he followed up at Perth last month. A 5lb rise looks fair after that comfortable success and he could be hard to beat with a similar effort. Hidden Depths and Vintage Fizz also arrive at the top of their game and look the pick of the rest.
Top Tip: GREY SKIES (2)
Watch out for: VINTAGE FIZZ (1)
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Post by numpty on Jun 1, 2023 8:20:51 GMT
Threw the baby out with the bathwater yesterday, but I never support those out of the hcap nothing to do with VDW tho' :|. This race is class 3 all-aged hcap is the feature race on the UK mainland Flat turf today.
Ripon (going forecast G some GF watered) Market odds from 8.25. 4.20 Market expected no's 5, 2, 3 indicating a win from these. Theoretical strong fav 7/4, contender 7/2, not expected longer than 8/1.
1. OOOXO = 1* 2. XOXXO = 3* Baryshnikov 1 tip (C&DD5) (4/1 mkt). LTO 3 good 3/9. 3. XXXXX = 5* Pisanello 4 tips (9/2). LTO 18 won 1/13. 4. OOOOX = 1* 5. XXXOO = 3* Nigwa 5 tips (C%D) (15/8). LTO 18 good 2/14. E Bethell 25% past month. 6. OXXOX = 3* 7. OOOOO = 0* 8. OOOOO = 0*
My comment: On balance Pisanello and Nigwa would be my two. Although Pisanello my not be as strong as the 5* indicate.
ATR form verdict in comparison with the above. Cockalorum had Society Red a length behind in second when he scored over track and trip in April but had enough in hand at the finish to suggests he can uphold the form off 2lb higher. However, this is a deeper race and fellow C&D winner BARYSHNIKOV, who was an excellent third in the Zetland Gold Cup on Monday, could be more rewarding to follow if none the worse for his Redcar exertions. Nigwa also warrants serious consideration. Top Tip: BARYSHNIKOV (2) Watch out for: COCKALORUM (4)
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Post by numpty on Jun 2, 2023 9:57:51 GMT
ATR form verdict came up with the goods again in comparison with VDW. Trying the evening jumps meeting at Stratford where hunter chases are in full swing, not a favourite of mine for punting. However, I swerved Epsom as it is a meeting advised to avoid by VDW along with Lingfield turf. Tonights contesthas the profile of a VDW 'key' race anyway.
Stratford (going forecast G some GF watered) Market odds from 10.05. 7.05 Market expected no's 9, 5, 7 indicating a win restricted to these.
1. OOOOO = 0* 2. OXXOX = 3* Clara Sorrento (10/1 mkt). LTO 19. R Starn up 27% past month 3. OOXOO = 1* 5. XXXXX = 5* Law Of Gold (13/8). LTO 28 (C&DD2). D Kemp 60%/D Peters 25% 6. OOOOO = 0* 7. XOOXO = 2* 8. OOOOO = 0* 9. XXOXX = 4* Vaucelet (13/8).LTO 14 (C&D2) BF3?). DM Christie 18%/B O'Neill 27% (won this last year) 10. OOOOO = 0* 11. OOOOO = 0*
My comment: Just one to watch for me with the short odds already for Law Of Gold and Vaucelet. ATR form verdict in comparison with the abpve. VAUCELET was well backed when he won this race last year and there are solid reasons to expect another bold bid in his attempt for back-to-back victories. He has run with credit in each of his five starts during the intervening period and he finished a fine second in a similar race at Downpatrick last month. The former Denman Chase winner Secret Investor and Law Of Gold are the most obvious dangers.
Top Tip: VAUCELET (9) Watch out for: SECRET INVESTOR (7)
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Post by numpty on Jun 3, 2023 8:49:43 GMT
That ATR form verdict has been putting my VDW attempts to the sword of late. Probably because I am not doing enough 'subject to further consideration' so serves me right . Doncaster (going forecast G some GF watering) Market odds from around 9.00. 4.00 Market expected no's 2, 3, 4, 6, 9 indicating an open contest. Theoretical strong fav 2/1, contender 4/1, not expected longer than 8/1. 1. OOOOO = 0* 2*. OXOXX = 3* Struth (13/2 mkt) . LTO 23 -6lb +2cls? trainer 24% jock 16%. 1/8 +3/4L. Led ridden edged left stayed on. 3*. OOOOO = 0* 4*. XOXOO = 2* 5. OOOOO = 0* 6*. XXXOX = 4* Prosper Legend (7/2). LTO 9 -3lb +3cls? trainer 22% jock 6%. 1/8 +3 1/2L. Pushed along went clear comfortably. 7. OOOOO =0* 8. OXXXO = 3* Chronograph (20/1). LTO 22 -16lb* =cls* trainer 12% jock 13%. 2/6 -nk. Went clear lead reduced soon ridden headed rallied just held 9*. XOOOXO = 2* My comment: Many of these 3yo are up in class so I will go each way on Chronograph 2nd at York LTO, even tho' it has no market support? ATR form verdict in comparison with the above. PROSPER LEGEND has improved with every start to date and got off the mark over 1m4f at Catterick recently. An opening mark of 83 appears to be fair, especially as the son of Australia may well have more progression to come. True Legend has relished the step up in trip since switching to handicap company and the hat-trick seeking colt is an obvious threat to the selection. Others to note are Chronograph, Rathgar and Struth. Top Tip: PROSPER LEGEND (6) Watch out for: TRUE LEGEND (9)
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Post by BC on Jun 3, 2023 17:45:25 GMT
I have not posted for a long time and just came on to see how things are going. Alas, not well it seems the same as many of the old boards. Pity, as I used to communicate with 'oldtimer' elsewhere and i presume he is no long er with us. His detailed 'subject to other considerations' were as good as you get anywhere. There is stuff from me in the archive under my 'jackform' collected by 'oldtimer', and useful to followers of the Van der Wheil principles.
Sadly, Oldtimer passed away in November 2021.
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Post by numpty on Jun 4, 2023 7:28:39 GMT
Sad to hear that oldtimer is no longer with us. I am now in my 88th year and so it is possible I will become a non-runner myself soon.
RIP oldtimer
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Post by numpty on Jun 4, 2023 8:27:16 GMT
That was another for the 'book' yesterday - and not my book it has to be said! . Keep calm and carry on- what else can we do? Fakenham (going forecast G some GF watering) Market odds from 9.00. 4.30 Market expected no's 5, 4, 2, 1 indicating an open contest. Theoretica strong fav 1/1, contender 2/1, not expected longer than 4/1 1. XXXXO = 4* Hatcher (10/3) TIPS 2 LTO 11, up 25lb? D Skelton 18% past month (PRB 80%) 2. OXXOX = 3* (6 tips, up 6lb, H Cobden up 21%.) (PRB57%) 3. OOOXO = 1* (PRB 0%) 4. XXXXO = 4* Name In Lights (3/1) 4 tips LTO 34? dropped 6lb weight carried. (PRB 71%) 5. XOXOX = 3* (non-runner) My comment: I am not convinced by either of the two 4*. One up in weight and the other not on my trainer list at all? Pawpaw dropped 10lb, D Bridgewatwr 20%, if it came back OK yesterday may also be in the mix. The answer has to b when in doubt don't, for me. ATR form verdict in comparison with the above. NAME IN LIGHTS wasn't disgraced when placing third at Kempton last month and a further 2lb drop may be enough to help him back into the winner's enclosure. Hatcher has shaped as if this longer trip could be in his favour and Dan Skelton's veteran isn't taken lightly. Quoi De Neuf returns to chasing after a modest fourth over hurdles at Uttoxeter and also enters calculations. Top Tip: NAME IN LIGHTS (4) Watch out for: HATCHER (1) P.S. (edited at 10.00. Is everyone familiar with calculating to find percentage of runners behind (PRB) where Hatcher and Name In Lights proved best from LTO, trying to get a handle on this race. I see Pawpaw is now a non-runner)
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Post by numpty on Jun 5, 2023 9:10:55 GMT
In view of my reply to a query about the definition of a 'key' it my be better to wait for them before posting assessments?
Regarding the profile of a 'key' race, It depends on your opinion of the requirements that indicate a 'key' race (alas looking again at the Fak 4.30 it fell just short IMO as I am afraid my poor eyesight let me down again). Nevertheless, discussing a 'key' is relevent as it is where the saga took off. It was when VDW promoted his previous correspondence under the alias G Hall. There are three letters of consequence IMO (I have the photostats in front of me now and note the timeline): 1 June, 1978 Numbers game to form a picture, from VDW. Then an interval of 7 months before: 11 January 1979 Constant stream of winners, from G Hall alias VDW. Two months later: 8 March 1979 Has Spotted Method's Key, from VDW.
Quote: "In reply to G Hall.......I congratulate him on 'spotting the key' as he describes it......the method I gave produces 85% to 90% winners Flat and Jumps, year in year out (note that he does not claim winning bets!)." "I know that during the NH season (different then) there can be long waits just as we have had until January 20th. The only 'good thing' Love From Verona won 12/1 (research anybody?). Ther are of course days during the Flat when nothing can be found and ther is no point in trying to find what is not there". (There is a race example explaining how to deal with F, P, U etc., in form lines but I just wish to highlight the previous placing figures) Weyhill Handicap Chase 811-13F 5* 126L14 15* LP1-FPP 1/22L1L 21 P4P12-F 7* Uther Pendragon won 11/2 614002 22
Just my opinion so feel free to disagree :prankster: (and I shall now duck down below the parapet) . To be considered 'key' race it should contain at least three runners with at least one win and the other placings 2nd to 4th as shown in the first letter above (and about the time lapse - VDW needed to kick start his campaign IMO).
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Post by havefun on Jun 5, 2023 12:42:54 GMT
RIP OT. The key race I thought refered to a race they had run before not the placings of each individual for the race they are in now. Otherwise you might just as well stick with Fineform, but I'm not sure now.
Have fun
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Post by numpty on Jun 5, 2023 13:38:57 GMT
havefun, welcome to the site. I am glad you took the trouble to post as actually the site was put to bed in 2021 and I am trying to rejuvenate it as it has archive information worth preserving. I am just a member and not avery good one at that, although I have following mainly UK racing off and on since 1951 when I was 15 and started work. As you can see I am pretty ancient in fact the same age as lester Piggot would have been, although he was a few months older than me.
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Post by BC on Jun 5, 2023 21:14:38 GMT
...I am trying to rejuvenate it as it has archive information worth preserving.
You may not be aware, but the archive material I think you're referring to is already on the other forum we're both contributing to, as well as at least one other place. I put it here and there a long, long time ago.
I could be wrong, but the others that used to post on here seem happy to let this forum go now, so, unless the competition was re-started, I can't think they would return.
As you will see from your visits to the VDW section, latterly, it was only Oldtimer and myself who were interested in the subject.
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Post by numpty on Jun 6, 2023 9:47:20 GMT
@bc, don't let this come to light on UKBF or I will get a good kicking Over on UKBF they are having an in depth, intellectual debate regarding the pros and cons of Van der Wheil It's just my opinion but I believe they read too much into his advice, and I have good reason for believing that. Of his time I agree he was very good, albeit a fantasist at least, so some of it has to be taken with a pinch of salt. Let me see if I can provide some reasons for my opinion provide food for thought: - Sports Forum letter September 28, 1996.'Pack up for a while if you aren't getting betting right'. (the signature was G. R., Lincolnshire another alias of VDW where he was writing about himself). The following are partial quotes: Quote,"The answer as to why it has gone on so long could well bring light to those still struggling. VDW rightly became a LEGEND because he gave us all a unque education in the art of finding winners. He busted the scenne wide open by revealing more than most of us could comprehend, but even his most fervent critics can't say other than he told the same story throughout. Not once did he alter what he said , not once did he bend the formula to fit his argument, not once did he shy away from from an awkward question. Everything he said he PROVED to us time and time again but were too thick to understand." "I was rummaging in my cupboard reserved for my treasures and came across VDW's book and collection of things he wrote. I weakened rapidly and read through everything several times but now it all seemed different. It seemed clear and simple and I could see how it should work ....the next day I could hardly believe my eyes when I saw the two horse I'd picked out had won. I did the same for three weeks and hardly picked a loser." "Don't misunderstand me I was as bad and perhaps a lot worse than most. I went through years of frustration and bloodymindedness wich almost cost me everything. It'snot like that anymore and i have now had nearly five years getting VDW's 85%. What changed it was an ultimatum from my wife and supported by both sides of our family,'pack up gambling or this marriage is over'." "Inevitably I started putting money on and evntually had qite a pile................I gave up ordinary work three years ago. I stick to the better class race tracks and believe it or not I love handicaps. Two year olds, maidens amateur races etc., I don't bother with and I leave EPSOM and LINGFIELD alone. All I do is follow Van der Wheils formula and look for the winner IN the race not Of the race." "I think Mickel the Greek (he was my mate who passed away in 2015 and Barry Pocock was his cousin) has this business of winner in a race all wrong. Van der Wheil was on a level far above the rest of us and understood racing inside out, resulting in him giving us more than we could cope with. Finding a winner in a race didn't mean backing two to get one winner. All my bets as shown above were winners in a race (he gave 8 over over six days - backfitting of course?)." G. R., Lincolnshire (this is me - what can you make of that revelation? In his early posts he wrote you have to wait for the right races not bet every day or week possibly. Did he just revert to his first basic 'narrowing the field advice' or is it all fantasy again? I will try two at Leicester today)
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Post by numpty on Jun 6, 2023 9:52:15 GMT
Sports Forum April 6, 1978 by VDW 'Narrow the field to gain winning strip' "I suggest that two factors can be coupled together to leave three horse for consideration. First, consistent horses winn a high percentage of race. Second , the first 5 in the bettinforecast in non-handicaps and the first 6 in handicaps, produce a high percentage of winners. If we add the last three placings of the respective horses in the betting forecast together we have a numerical picture. This can be very illuminating and show, subject to other considerations , the good betting propositions. A high percentage of winners come from the three lowest figures. Leaving out sellers and novice handicaps it often traps thw winner in all the races on the card." The above is where we started with VDW and I have assessed two Leicester races today given that information. Market odds from 8.50. Leicester (going forecast GF watering) I used the RP betting forecast and have not done any 'subject to other considerations'. 3.30 3. Ernie's Valentine 16 (7/2 mkt) 8. Touchwood 16 (15/2) 9. Royal Musketeer 15 (2/1) 4.35 1. It's All About You 9 (11/2) 3rd 7/12. Dasho Lennie 7 (11/2) 2nd 6/18. Fairbanks 9 (2/1) won 2/1My comment: Interesting to see the results .
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Post by BC on Jun 6, 2023 23:35:09 GMT
Over on UKBF they are having an in depth, intellectual debate regarding the pros and cons of Van der Wheil It's just my opinion but I believe they read too much into his advice, and I have good reason for believing that. Of his time I agree he was very good, albeit a fantasist at least, so some of it has to be taken with a pinch of salt. Wouldn't it be better to join in their discussion? It is your thread they're discussing it on.
I've given my thoughts on there and I'd just be repeating it here.
(this is me - what can you make of that revelation? In his early posts he wrote you have to wait for the right races not bet every day or week possibly. Did he just revert to his first basic 'narrowing the field advice' or is it all fantasy again? I will try two at Leicester today) Unless I'm reading it wrong, he doesn't appear to be saying he bets every day. It seems to me he is showing which races he evaluates and which ones he leaves.
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Post by numpty on Jun 7, 2023 7:44:24 GMT
More 'narrow the field' just as a matter of interest . Nottingham (going forecast GF some F watering) Market odds from 7.50. Data from online Racing Post. 4.00 1. Funny Story 15 (5/2) won 3/12. Heroism 15 (10/1) personally I would omit this one owing to time off track and lack of market support. 4. Spirit Of Applause 14 (4/1) 2nd 16/59. Installation 14 (3/1) 4.35 1. Protected Guest 15 (13/2) 2. Splendent 10 (5/2) 4. Bashful Boy 4 (4/1) won 3/15.10 1. Starnberg 5 (4/1) won 9/22. Gulmarg 9 (9/2) 2nd 9/24. Abu Royal 9 (9/2) 5. Umberto 9 (4/1)
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Post by numpty on Jun 8, 2023 7:57:47 GMT
Yarmouth (going forecast GF some G watering) Market odds from 8.40. 6.40 2. Priscilla's Wish 9 (7/2 mkt) won 4/1 4. Society Lion 10 (11/4) 3rd 3/1 7. Shades Of Summer 9 (5/1)
7.10 2. Trueman 10 (5/2) 3. Million Thanks 17 (3/1) 2nd 11/4 6. Discretion 17 (3/1) won 10/3
As this is a test the staking is 1 point each runner to make it fair. However, any wishing to decide those with a better chance may wish to follow VDW's 'subject to other consideration' This was given as follows:
VDW again "In March 1981 I suggested: - To confirm what the figures say it is necessary to study the form of all concerned taking particular note of the class in which they ran , the courses they ran on, the pace and going of the respective races, distances won or beaten by and most important of all how they performed in the later stages of each race."
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Post by numpty on Jun 9, 2023 7:47:41 GMT
Try a northern evening card and hope it's cooled down a little by then for the runners.
Haydock (going forecast GF some G watered) Market odds from 8.35. 6.45 1. Ruling Dynasty (3/1) won 10/3 6. King Of The Plains (11/10) 2nd 6/4
7.20 2. Silent Flame (11/4) 3rd 11/4 3. Absolutelyflawless (3/1) 4. Peony (11/2) won 9/2
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Post by numpty on Jun 10, 2023 7:41:20 GMT
Haydock (going forecast GF watering and scattered showers) Market odds from 8.20 2.25 8. Good Show 14 ((9/2) 9. Cumulonimbus 10 (4/1) won 6/1 10. Forza Orta 15 (15/2)
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Post by numpty on Jun 11, 2023 8:05:06 GMT
Very good card at Beverley for a Sunday
Beverley (going forecast GF some G watered) Market odds from 8.40.
4.45 1. Legendary Day 8 (10/3) 4. The Predictor 8 (4/1) 6. Blow You Horn 9 (6/1) won 15/2 5.15 4. Northcliff 15 (10/1) 6. Another Baar 7 (11/2) won 9/2 9. Winter Crown 14 (9/2) 5.45 1. Tregony 3 (13/2) 5. My Little Queens 4 (9/1) 9. Dubai Crystal 9 (13/2) 6.15 4. The Cookstown Cafu 4 (7/2) 5. Maywake 9 (9/2) 7. On The River 3 (13/2)
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Post by numpty on Jun 12, 2023 7:09:47 GMT
Windsor (going forecast GF some G selected watering, thunderstorms) Market odds from 08.00. 7.10 3. Bedford Flyer 10 (11/2) 6. Swayze 17 (11/2) 9. Isle Of Lismore 13 (10/1) 7.40 3. Raven's Up 10 (11/2) 5. Unlimited Data 5 (4/1) 7. American Rose 9 (5/1) 8.10 3. Noble Masquerade 14 (11/4) 4. Love You Grandpa 9 (6/1) 5. Monteria 11 (5/1)
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Post by numpty on Jun 13, 2023 8:28:32 GMT
This post should probably be on the advice thread but it's on here for any one interested. This is from a Sports Forum letter some 14 months along the timeline from VDW's first letter Feb 2nd, 1978.
Look Before You leap In (VDW sports Forum May 3 1979) “Considerable interest is apparently shown regarding lists of horses to follow...The first problem is how to select the right horses and readers may care to check the following before diving in at the deep end.” “The price when a win comes along needs to be reasonable and to go a long way to achieving this I suggest restricting selections to good handicappers only. Note those which had two form placings in their last two outings in the previous season with one a win i.e., 21 31 12 etc, and also at least two wins over the period. If they run into a place, preferable second, first time out check their previous best performances. Any reliable method will do although many will find Split Seconds (Topspeed?) more convenient. The important thing is to establish proven ability and here a previous speed figure of 80+ (?) should give a reasonable base. Now check the running in the present race and judge prospects for the future. In my opinion it is a mistake to select a whole string of horses when half-a-dozen carefully selected animals will do the trick, it is an aspect that readers could consider with profit.”
(VDW states I selected six for the NH season which returned many times the national wage – unsubstantiated claim?)
My comment: Nothing to date regarding class rating figures, or the second rating system, or even Roushayd and trainers methods. In fact VDW set his stall out for what was to come in his first two letters to Sports Forum: - 'How about a swap shop?' F eb 2, 1978 answered by himself as G Hall Feb 16, 1978 'Flying Dutchman should set ball rolling.' It was something of a fraud from the very start.
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Post by havefun on Jun 13, 2023 11:35:23 GMT
Food for thought there
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Post by BC on Jun 14, 2023 2:00:09 GMT
...answered by himself as G Hall Feb 16, 1978 'Flying Dutchman should set ball rolling.' It was something of a fraud from the very start.
I hadn't noticed that it was "G Hall" that penned that letter. What was he thinking?
It seems totally unnecessary. He could've just started to write instead of inviting himself to write. I don't get it.
He clearly had a plan. But what was his motivation? Tony Peach said VDW wasn't paid (apart from £50 towards the end of the saga if memory serves).
It's all very strange.
Whatever his motives were and despite the seemingly underhanded way he went about it, I am grateful to have read his letters. I wouldn't have got anywhere without them.
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Post by numpty on Jun 14, 2023 7:58:09 GMT
It's rather low grade fare for punting again IMO, although the feature race on the UK mainland at Hay 2.40 has a £40,000 prize -but it's a 5 runer fillies novice stakes with not very exposed runners. With fillies you never know their mental state and you have to leave some sort of indication to the betting market and connections.
This is a very basic 'elementary mechanical procedure' of a class 4 fillies hcap, where most are 3yo and the early market indicates an open contest. I am thinking I should have swerved it already.
Haydock (going forecast GF watering) Market odds from 08.15. W Haggas top track trainer runs no 4. Five Towns 15 4.50 Market expected no's 8, 7, 4, 2, 6 indicating an open contest. Theoretical strong fav 2/1, contender 4/1, not expected longer than 8/1.
6. Alice Knyvet 11 (6/1 mkt) 7. Regal Fanfare 11 (9/2) M Stoute/R Kingscote 8. Chorus Line 14 (9/4)
MY comment: Without 'subject to further consideration' if I had too probably 1 point apiece for interest, or dutch Chorus Line and Regal Fanfare as Alice Knyvet doesn't have much early market support. ATR form verdict in comparison with the above. In this competitive contest marginal preference is for the Sir Michael Stoute-trained filly REGAL FANFARE. The three-year-old was by no means disgraced when third in testing conditions at Nottingham last time out and the sister to the Group 3-winning Regal Encore is taken to appreciate this sounder surface. Chorus Line shed the maiden tag at Leicester on her latest outing and she demands the utmost respect off 3lb higher. Alice Knyvet also makes some appeal. Top Tip: REGAL FANFARE (7) Watch out for: CHORUS LINE (8)
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