Paroli staking and Other Systems

[numpty]

Touching on staking where I believe the consensus is level stakes as the logical approach, and I don't disagree, except maybe a level return could be a sensible alternative. Trawling through my paper archive looking for stuff on VDW (what else) I came across this from SCHB Sports Forum, January 12, 1980 form The Bacon man, Altrincham. 'Roulette Idea for a Bet a Day.

(He goes on to describe following betting forecast favourites selected by the Sporting Chron form expert and a convincing write up by one of the Chronicle correpondents and later writes 'I have found the roulette staking system called a paroli to be really profitable, especially when it is considered basically only single stakes are used').



Using the paroli 1 point is bet selection up to a winner. The next stake is the total return from the winner plus 1 extra point. If this wins the total return is placed on the selection, but no extra points are added to he two already bet.

Example for three even money winners:-

1. Stake 1 point return 2 points

2. Stake 3 points return return 6 points

3. Stake 6 points return 12 points



(That's it and I thought it might be nice for a day out at the races, which is expensive before having a punt anyway, or for me as an armchair punter watching TV. These are my on paper test pro-selections for a couple of afternoon meetings. Market odds from around 09.00).



San 1.30 Kingswood Flyer (5/2)

Che 1.40 Gert Lush (6/5)

Che 2.15 Lordship (11/10)

Che 3.25 Airshow (6/4)

Che.00 Jaquelina (7/4)

San 5.00 Trooper Bisdee (5/2)

[numpty]

Kelly Ctriterion Staking Strategy (devised by a Professor in the USA in 1956)

The Kelly criterion is a staking strategy that calculates the optimal stake for maximum growth of your bankroll, based on the perceived value of the bet. It is a mathematical formula for bet sizing, which is frequently used by investors to decide how much money they should allocate to each investment or bet through a predetermined fraction of assets. It is popular because it typically leads to higher wealth in the long run compared to other types of strategies (the calculation indicates the best size of bet to maximise winnings. I don't use it in its pure form now as you have to recalculate your advantage after every bet and finish up calculating that instead of oncentrating on selection. If you are interested and google Kelly Criterion you shoudl find it).

This is a suggested short cut to employ:

To bet more than your advantage guarantees losses in the long run, but betting less than your advantage will win you less than your are capable of (you could try running any staking plan plus Kelly side-by-side on paper to prove it.)
After a minimum of 10 results note the strike-rate percentage and stake according to it in the following manner. Thereafter recalculate your wins to runs percentage afetr each bet. It is assumed an average odds bet of around 5/2.

Strike-Rate
20 - 25% bet 2% of the avilable bank
26 - 30% bet 3%
31 - 35% bet 4%
36 - 45% bet 5%
46 - 55% bet 6%
56 - 65% bet 7%
Above 75% bet no more than 8% of the available bank

[BC]

Jun 19, 2023 14:35:27 GMT numpty said:

Kelly Ctriterion Staking Strategy (devised by a Professor in the USA in 1956)

The Kelly criterion is a staking strategy that calculates the optimal stake for maximum growth of your bankroll, based on the perceived value of the bet. It is a mathematical formula for bet sizing, which is frequently used by investors to decide how much money they should allocate to each investment or bet through a predetermined fraction of assets. It is popular because it typically leads to higher wealth in the long run compared to other types of strategies (the calculation indicates the best size of bet to maximise winnings. I don't use it in its pure form now as you have to recalculate your advantage after every bet and finish up calculating that instead of oncentrating on selection. If you are interested and google Kelly Criterion you shoudl find it).

I was watching a YouTube video interview by Star Sports with renowned gambler Patrick Veitch a couple of weeks ago. I don't know if it was in the initial interview or the subsequent Q&A, but he mentioned the Kelly Criterion as a means of maximising your profits whilst building your bank.

He said when you get to a certain level, it goes out of the window, as you can't get enough on! Oh, to be in that position.

I read the Wiki, and did a lot of work on it using Excel spreadsheets.

The formula is:

f = p - q / b

p = probability of win

q = probability of loss

b = profit on bet (odds)

f = fraction of bank to bet

So, for example, if your known strike rate is 35% and your average winning odds are 2/1, then

p = 0.35

q = 0.65

b = 2.0

f = 0.025

0.025 equates to 2.5% of your bank.

You do need to know your long term strike rate and average winning odds. But if you know these two figures, the Kelly Criterion is eye-opening. I have amended the %age of my bank I bet as a result of this work, but I did build in a small safety margin to both SR and average odds.

How funny you should post this around the same time as I stumbled over it.