Post by numpty on Jun 5, 2023 10:33:34 GMT
As I have decided just to post assessments for true VDW key races perhaps an alternative to fill the gaps could be Clive Holts Fineform. This realtively simple system can be applied to any race quite quickly form just four or five factors, namely the market forecast, last two outing placings, course and distance, Racing Post Rating. The maximum rating is 20 and plus i more for splitting.
Windsor 7.15 is the feature race on the UK mainland today, although not strong in Fineform terms. I do like a ratings assessment as it allows them to be converted to fair odds to compare with the betting market.
Windsor (going forecast GF) Market odds from around 10.45.
1. 3 = 18/1 (11/2 mkt 10.45)
2. 5 = 10/1 (7/2) Bresson LTO 9, 3 tips (D). J&T Gosden 28%/R Havlin 18% past month
3. 2 = 25/1 (14/1)
4. 4 = 13/1 (16/1)
5. 5 = 10/1 (18/1)
6. 13 = 3/1 (7/2) Eminency. LTO 16 (C&D)
7. 2 = 15/1 (28/1)
8. 4 = 13/1 (18/1)
9. 2 = 25/1 (14/1)
10. 12 = 7/2 (4/1) Sparton Arrow LTO 17. E Crisford 19%/W Buick 19% past month
11. 2 = 25/1 (50/1)
My comment: Fairest system test staking plan is always level stakes, so 1 point on each of the three named.
ATR verdict in compaison with the above.
This represents a considerable drop in grade for Wiltshire, who finished a fair fifth behind Shouldvebeenaring in Listed company over 7f last month. However, EMINENCY gets the vote. The son of Havana Grey kept on for third in a deeper race at Newmarket most recently and a 1lb raised mark may not be enough to stop Clive Cox's inmate going in. Aunt Violet and Tough Enough add further spice to the race.
Top Tip: EMINENCY (6)
Watch out for: WILTSHIRE (1)
Timeform verdict
A useful 3-y-o sprint. EMINENCY arrives on the back of a good placed effort in a similarly competitive race at Newmarket and gets the vote. Spartan Arrow didn't get the chance to show what he could do on his York handicap debut and is second choice ahead of Bresson, who shaped quite well on his Goodwood reappearance.
Timeform 1-2-3
EMINENCY (6)SPARTAN ARROW (10)BRESSON (2)
Windsor 7.15 is the feature race on the UK mainland today, although not strong in Fineform terms. I do like a ratings assessment as it allows them to be converted to fair odds to compare with the betting market.
Windsor (going forecast GF) Market odds from around 10.45.
1. 3 = 18/1 (11/2 mkt 10.45)
2. 5 = 10/1 (7/2) Bresson LTO 9, 3 tips (D). J&T Gosden 28%/R Havlin 18% past month
3. 2 = 25/1 (14/1)
4. 4 = 13/1 (16/1)
5. 5 = 10/1 (18/1)
6. 13 = 3/1 (7/2) Eminency. LTO 16 (C&D)
7. 2 = 15/1 (28/1)
8. 4 = 13/1 (18/1)
9. 2 = 25/1 (14/1)
10. 12 = 7/2 (4/1) Sparton Arrow LTO 17. E Crisford 19%/W Buick 19% past month
11. 2 = 25/1 (50/1)
My comment: Fairest system test staking plan is always level stakes, so 1 point on each of the three named.
ATR verdict in compaison with the above.
This represents a considerable drop in grade for Wiltshire, who finished a fair fifth behind Shouldvebeenaring in Listed company over 7f last month. However, EMINENCY gets the vote. The son of Havana Grey kept on for third in a deeper race at Newmarket most recently and a 1lb raised mark may not be enough to stop Clive Cox's inmate going in. Aunt Violet and Tough Enough add further spice to the race.
Top Tip: EMINENCY (6)
Watch out for: WILTSHIRE (1)
Timeform verdict
A useful 3-y-o sprint. EMINENCY arrives on the back of a good placed effort in a similarly competitive race at Newmarket and gets the vote. Spartan Arrow didn't get the chance to show what he could do on his York handicap debut and is second choice ahead of Bresson, who shaped quite well on his Goodwood reappearance.
Timeform 1-2-3
EMINENCY (6)SPARTAN ARROW (10)BRESSON (2)
