Post by Old Timer on Apr 18, 2021 10:20:37 GMT
Replacing Saturday with a Sunday, but still going a bit slow with the start of the flat season, so no great hopes today.
Newbury 15.20 Cl 2 Handicap 165 (94.9) 8f gd – 18 Run (17 at best)
Danyah 4-9-1 (98) Dr 6 (5.2)
’20 record 2/2/4 Best: 187.7 off 93 carrying 8-9 (Cl 2 Hcap 8f gd Hayd)
’21 record 0/1/1 Best: 183.7 off 98 carrying 9-3 (Cl 2 Hcap gd Donc)
27/03/21 Cl 2 Hcap (515/98.4) 8f gd Donc 9-3 7/1 4/18 4.25 l off 98
in touch, ridden and headway over 1f out, one pace final furlong
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (22 days); down 2lbs (wt);
Minus:
Verdict: won on return last year over 7f at Doncaster, and finished the season by winning over 8f on gd at Haydock; returned with a respectable 4th in the Lincoln, although there was a gap to the 3rd; nevertheless, runs off the same mark and should come along for the run.
Mathew Flinders 4-9-0 (97) Dr 1 (6.3)
’20 record 2/2/6 Best: 185.6 off 92 carrying 8-9 (Cl 2 Hcap 8f gd Donc)
10/10/20 Cl 2 Hcap (156/92.5) 10.5f sf York 9-1 11/2 8/13 7.5 l off 97
steadied start, held up in rear, ridden and headway on outside over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong
12/09/20 Cl 2 Hcap (249/93.6) 8f gd Donc 8-9 5/2 F 1/12 1.25 l off 92
held up, headway 2f out, ridden to lead just inside final furlong, ran on
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); down 1lb;
Minus: course (?); 190-day break;
Verdict: likely found the 10.5f too far at York on his last run, but earlier has impressed when winning over 8f at Doncaster; not without a chance if wound up for his return.
Nugget 4-8-9 (92) Dr 2 (9.8)
’20 record 2/2/4 Best: 177.1 off 87 carrying 9-1 (Cl 3 Hcap 8f gd/fm Nwmkt)
’21 record 0/0/1 Best: 175.1 off 92 carrying 9-5 (Cl 3 Hcap 8.5f gd/fm Nott)
07/04/21 Cl 3 Hcap (62/88.3) 8.5f gd/fm Nott 9-5 3/1 3/6 1.8 l off 92
In touch with leaders, niggled along and short of room over 1f out, soon ridden, not clear run final 110 yards
Plus: going (W); distance (W); form run lto (11 days) ; down 10lbs (wt);
Minus: class; course; up in class;
Verdict: reasonable effort on return and likely would have been closer with a clearer run; likely to progress this season and has significant jockey booking already; looks certain to make the frame.
The only problem with my shortlist is that they’re all drawn low, and past trends tell you that a double-figured draw is normally favoured at Newbury. However with three of them, maybe this is the year to prove the odds wrong. There’s another odd stat that bedevils me, and that is that supposedly no horse wearing headgear of a tongue-tie has won in the last 17 years. So that being the case, I’m going for Nugget from Danyah in the hood, with Mathew Flinders taking 3rd.
Ayr 15.35 Gr 3 Handicap Chase 844 (139.8) 32f gd – 23 run (22 at best)
Another of these lotteries, of which there have been four winners at less than 10/1 this century. As such I’m not going for Aye Right; he may win, but the odds are against him.
My three contenders to possibly make the places are Mighty Thunder, The Ferry Master and Chapel Stile.
Newbury 15.20 Cl 2 Handicap 165 (94.9) 8f gd – 18 Run (17 at best)
Danyah 4-9-1 (98) Dr 6 (5.2)
’20 record 2/2/4 Best: 187.7 off 93 carrying 8-9 (Cl 2 Hcap 8f gd Hayd)
’21 record 0/1/1 Best: 183.7 off 98 carrying 9-3 (Cl 2 Hcap gd Donc)
27/03/21 Cl 2 Hcap (515/98.4) 8f gd Donc 9-3 7/1 4/18 4.25 l off 98
in touch, ridden and headway over 1f out, one pace final furlong
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (22 days); down 2lbs (wt);
Minus:
Verdict: won on return last year over 7f at Doncaster, and finished the season by winning over 8f on gd at Haydock; returned with a respectable 4th in the Lincoln, although there was a gap to the 3rd; nevertheless, runs off the same mark and should come along for the run.
Mathew Flinders 4-9-0 (97) Dr 1 (6.3)
’20 record 2/2/6 Best: 185.6 off 92 carrying 8-9 (Cl 2 Hcap 8f gd Donc)
10/10/20 Cl 2 Hcap (156/92.5) 10.5f sf York 9-1 11/2 8/13 7.5 l off 97
steadied start, held up in rear, ridden and headway on outside over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong
12/09/20 Cl 2 Hcap (249/93.6) 8f gd Donc 8-9 5/2 F 1/12 1.25 l off 92
held up, headway 2f out, ridden to lead just inside final furlong, ran on
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); down 1lb;
Minus: course (?); 190-day break;
Verdict: likely found the 10.5f too far at York on his last run, but earlier has impressed when winning over 8f at Doncaster; not without a chance if wound up for his return.
Nugget 4-8-9 (92) Dr 2 (9.8)
’20 record 2/2/4 Best: 177.1 off 87 carrying 9-1 (Cl 3 Hcap 8f gd/fm Nwmkt)
’21 record 0/0/1 Best: 175.1 off 92 carrying 9-5 (Cl 3 Hcap 8.5f gd/fm Nott)
07/04/21 Cl 3 Hcap (62/88.3) 8.5f gd/fm Nott 9-5 3/1 3/6 1.8 l off 92
In touch with leaders, niggled along and short of room over 1f out, soon ridden, not clear run final 110 yards
Plus: going (W); distance (W); form run lto (11 days) ; down 10lbs (wt);
Minus: class; course; up in class;
Verdict: reasonable effort on return and likely would have been closer with a clearer run; likely to progress this season and has significant jockey booking already; looks certain to make the frame.
The only problem with my shortlist is that they’re all drawn low, and past trends tell you that a double-figured draw is normally favoured at Newbury. However with three of them, maybe this is the year to prove the odds wrong. There’s another odd stat that bedevils me, and that is that supposedly no horse wearing headgear of a tongue-tie has won in the last 17 years. So that being the case, I’m going for Nugget from Danyah in the hood, with Mathew Flinders taking 3rd.
Ayr 15.35 Gr 3 Handicap Chase 844 (139.8) 32f gd – 23 run (22 at best)
Another of these lotteries, of which there have been four winners at less than 10/1 this century. As such I’m not going for Aye Right; he may win, but the odds are against him.
My three contenders to possibly make the places are Mighty Thunder, The Ferry Master and Chapel Stile.