Post by Old Timer on Apr 3, 2021 10:20:36 GMT
Quite satisfied with the Lincoln where the favourite was there to back if you were to buck the odds, and on this occasion it paid off. A disappointing card today, but we’ll stick with the Flat and hope we have some more luck.
Musselburgh 15.00 Cl 2 Handicap 155 (92.0) 5f gd/sf – 13 Ran
Count D’Orsay 5-9-7 (100) Dr 4 (4.1)
’20 record 1/3/8 Best:187.9 off 99 carrying 9-7 (Cl 2 Hcap 5f sf Catt)
17/10/20 Cl 2 Hcap (124/89.3) 5f sf Catt 9-7 8/1 2/10 0.1 l off 99
in touch, ridden and headway over 1f out, led inside final furlong, headed close home
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W);
Minus: course (?); 168-day break; up 1lb (OR);
Verdict: 5f on ground the soft side of gd tends to suit, and thereabouts on 3 of his last 4 starts, just caught by Justanotherbottle (-3) in the Catterick dash on his final start; meets the winner on 1lb better terms and is also closely handicapped with Came From The Dark on two close Haydock races in September; suggestion that he might need that race, plus is drawn a little on the low side.
Justanotherbottle 7-9-5 (98) Dr 11 (4.7)
’20 record 1/1/5 Best: 185.3 off 96 carrying 9-4 (Cl 2 Hcap 5f sf Catt)
’21 record 0/0/1
20/03/21 Cl 3 Stks (72/) 5f AW Wolv 9-6 4/1 3/4 4.25 l off 98
chased leaders, pushed along over 2f out, stayed on same pace from over 1f out
17/10/20 Cl 2 Hcap (124/89.3) 5f sf Catt 9-4 18/1 1/10 0/1 l off 96
half-reared start and slowly away, outpaced, plenty to do 2f out, ridden and ran on strongly final furlong, led close home
Plus: class (W); distance (W); lto (14 days); down 1lb (wt);
Minus: going (?); course (?); up in class;
Verdict: obviously needed his recent run on the AW, but gained his first success for his new yard on his final start when taking the Catterick Dash, his first success at this level; possible chance to add to his tally today, as has form on higher OR.
Came From The Dark 5-9-6 (99) Dr 7 (8.1)
’20 record 1/1/5 Best: 182.9 off 95 carrying 9-6 (Cl 2 Hcap 5f gd Hayd)
24/10/20 Cl 2 Hcap (123/88.3) 5f hv Donc 9-7 4/1 F 7/10 7.37 l off 100
held up near side, pushed along 2f out, made no impression from over 1f out
26/09/20 Cl 2 Hcap (249/87.9) 5f gd Hayd 9-6 3/1 F 1/11 0.5 l off 95
held up in centre, good headway between horses over 1f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, edged left, ran on
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); down 1lb (wt); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: course (?); 161-day break;
Verdict: only ever raced once before June, but returning this time following wind surgery; has won over 6f, but arrived late when winning over 5f in September to make 3/5 at Haydock, beating Count D’Orsay (+1) by 0.5l with Copper Knight (0) down the field; booking of Hollie Doyle noted, but only 0/3/10 for Walker; nevertheless, chances following surgery.
Zarzyni leads the market, but that’s slightly puzzling for a horse that’s only won over 7f in Ireland and on his UK debut was reported staying on to finish 3rd over 6f at Wolverhampton. Hardly what’s needed over 5f at Musselburgh. As a 4yo, he may win but he’s not for me, Similarly with Jabbarockie who might be a little below his last winning mark, but is also and 8yo and was behind both Count D’Orsay and Came From The Dark on his final start at Haydock.
So I’ll go with my shortlist and am tempted to go with Came From The Dark from Justanotherbottle, with the less favourably drawn Count D’Orsay in 3rd.
Musselburgh 15.35 Cl 2 Handicap 387 (96.4) 14f gd/sf – 14 Ran (13 at best)
King’s Advice 7-9-4 (97) Dr 9 (M2.3)
’20 record 0/1/9 Best: 195.7 off 104 carrying 9-10 (Cl 2 Hcap 14f gd/fm Good)
17/12/20 Cl 2 Hcap (123/95.2) 14f AW Chelm 9-5 5/1 5/6 8.52 l off 100
tracked leaders, ridden to chase clear winner over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong
01/08/20 Cl 2 Hcap (311/95.2) 14f gd/fm Good 9-10 11/2 5/9 3.5 l off 104
led early, chased leaders, ridden over 2f out, not quicken over 1f out, stayed on same pace inside final furlong
Plus: class (W); distance (W); down 1lb (wt)l down 3lbs (OR);
Minus: going (?); course (?);107-day break;
Verdict: started off like gangbusters in ’19 winning 8 of its first 9 starts and moving its OR from 71 to 112; paid the penalty last year and starts this season off a mark of 97, plus the addition of a first-time visor; he’s also ridden by a 5lb-claiming apprentice who has a 4/4/26 record for Johnston and is by no means the worst handicapped of the trainer’s 5 entries.
Indianapolis 6-9-2 (95) Dr 10 (0.7)
’20 record 0/1/10 Best: 190.7 off 97 carrying 9-11 (Cl 2 Hcap 14f gd Hayd)
07/11/20 Cl 2 Hcap (342/93.5) 12f sf Donc 8-12 28/1 18/23 25.42 l off 97
dwelt towards rear, ridden 3f out, never on terms
26/09/20 Cl 2 Hcap (124/94.2) 14f gd Hayd 9-11 17/2 2/5 0.5 l off 97
soon settled tracking leaders disputing 4th, pushed along edging left over 2f out, soon ridden, stayed on to dispute 2nd inside final furlong, no extra in 3rd towards finish
Plus: class (W); distance (F); down 2lbs (wt); up in distance;
Minus: going (?); course (?); 147-day break; up 4lbs (wt);
Verdict: not yet won at further than 14f, but flashes of hope last season; first run for new yard could perhaps tell is more.
Trumpet Man 4-9-3 (97) Dr 13 (0.9)
’20 record 3/1/10 Best: 192.5 off 97 carrying 9-2 (Cl 2 Hcap 14f AW Chelm)
07/11/20 Cl 2 Hcap (123/98.5) 14f AW Chelm 9-2 11/8 2/2 3 l off 97
led, ridden and headed over 1f out, no extra final furlong
Plus: class (F); distance (F);
Minus: going; course (?); 147-day break; up 1lb (wt);
Verdict: rapid improvement in last 4 races once he was raised in distance and final start on the AW was not really run to suit being a speed test; another of the Johnston entries.
A race where the recent form is of course all AW, and for the turf form you have to look back a bit to find. It’s not a race where there’s an obvious solution, other than the favourite, Nate The Great who has some positive AW form to show. However, I’m going to row against that as it was over 16.5f and go for a horse that could be very well handicapped. King’s Advice paid the price for his very productive start to his track career and after drawing a blank last year looks ideally placed to run a big race. So for me it’s King’s Advice and to chase him home I’m taking a chance on Indianapolis and Trumpet Man.
Musselburgh 15.00 Cl 2 Handicap 155 (92.0) 5f gd/sf – 13 Ran
Count D’Orsay 5-9-7 (100) Dr 4 (4.1)
’20 record 1/3/8 Best:187.9 off 99 carrying 9-7 (Cl 2 Hcap 5f sf Catt)
17/10/20 Cl 2 Hcap (124/89.3) 5f sf Catt 9-7 8/1 2/10 0.1 l off 99
in touch, ridden and headway over 1f out, led inside final furlong, headed close home
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W);
Minus: course (?); 168-day break; up 1lb (OR);
Verdict: 5f on ground the soft side of gd tends to suit, and thereabouts on 3 of his last 4 starts, just caught by Justanotherbottle (-3) in the Catterick dash on his final start; meets the winner on 1lb better terms and is also closely handicapped with Came From The Dark on two close Haydock races in September; suggestion that he might need that race, plus is drawn a little on the low side.
Justanotherbottle 7-9-5 (98) Dr 11 (4.7)
’20 record 1/1/5 Best: 185.3 off 96 carrying 9-4 (Cl 2 Hcap 5f sf Catt)
’21 record 0/0/1
20/03/21 Cl 3 Stks (72/) 5f AW Wolv 9-6 4/1 3/4 4.25 l off 98
chased leaders, pushed along over 2f out, stayed on same pace from over 1f out
17/10/20 Cl 2 Hcap (124/89.3) 5f sf Catt 9-4 18/1 1/10 0/1 l off 96
half-reared start and slowly away, outpaced, plenty to do 2f out, ridden and ran on strongly final furlong, led close home
Plus: class (W); distance (W); lto (14 days); down 1lb (wt);
Minus: going (?); course (?); up in class;
Verdict: obviously needed his recent run on the AW, but gained his first success for his new yard on his final start when taking the Catterick Dash, his first success at this level; possible chance to add to his tally today, as has form on higher OR.
Came From The Dark 5-9-6 (99) Dr 7 (8.1)
’20 record 1/1/5 Best: 182.9 off 95 carrying 9-6 (Cl 2 Hcap 5f gd Hayd)
24/10/20 Cl 2 Hcap (123/88.3) 5f hv Donc 9-7 4/1 F 7/10 7.37 l off 100
held up near side, pushed along 2f out, made no impression from over 1f out
26/09/20 Cl 2 Hcap (249/87.9) 5f gd Hayd 9-6 3/1 F 1/11 0.5 l off 95
held up in centre, good headway between horses over 1f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, edged left, ran on
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); down 1lb (wt); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: course (?); 161-day break;
Verdict: only ever raced once before June, but returning this time following wind surgery; has won over 6f, but arrived late when winning over 5f in September to make 3/5 at Haydock, beating Count D’Orsay (+1) by 0.5l with Copper Knight (0) down the field; booking of Hollie Doyle noted, but only 0/3/10 for Walker; nevertheless, chances following surgery.
Zarzyni leads the market, but that’s slightly puzzling for a horse that’s only won over 7f in Ireland and on his UK debut was reported staying on to finish 3rd over 6f at Wolverhampton. Hardly what’s needed over 5f at Musselburgh. As a 4yo, he may win but he’s not for me, Similarly with Jabbarockie who might be a little below his last winning mark, but is also and 8yo and was behind both Count D’Orsay and Came From The Dark on his final start at Haydock.
So I’ll go with my shortlist and am tempted to go with Came From The Dark from Justanotherbottle, with the less favourably drawn Count D’Orsay in 3rd.
Musselburgh 15.35 Cl 2 Handicap 387 (96.4) 14f gd/sf – 14 Ran (13 at best)
King’s Advice 7-9-4 (97) Dr 9 (M2.3)
’20 record 0/1/9 Best: 195.7 off 104 carrying 9-10 (Cl 2 Hcap 14f gd/fm Good)
17/12/20 Cl 2 Hcap (123/95.2) 14f AW Chelm 9-5 5/1 5/6 8.52 l off 100
tracked leaders, ridden to chase clear winner over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong
01/08/20 Cl 2 Hcap (311/95.2) 14f gd/fm Good 9-10 11/2 5/9 3.5 l off 104
led early, chased leaders, ridden over 2f out, not quicken over 1f out, stayed on same pace inside final furlong
Plus: class (W); distance (W); down 1lb (wt)l down 3lbs (OR);
Minus: going (?); course (?);107-day break;
Verdict: started off like gangbusters in ’19 winning 8 of its first 9 starts and moving its OR from 71 to 112; paid the penalty last year and starts this season off a mark of 97, plus the addition of a first-time visor; he’s also ridden by a 5lb-claiming apprentice who has a 4/4/26 record for Johnston and is by no means the worst handicapped of the trainer’s 5 entries.
Indianapolis 6-9-2 (95) Dr 10 (0.7)
’20 record 0/1/10 Best: 190.7 off 97 carrying 9-11 (Cl 2 Hcap 14f gd Hayd)
07/11/20 Cl 2 Hcap (342/93.5) 12f sf Donc 8-12 28/1 18/23 25.42 l off 97
dwelt towards rear, ridden 3f out, never on terms
26/09/20 Cl 2 Hcap (124/94.2) 14f gd Hayd 9-11 17/2 2/5 0.5 l off 97
soon settled tracking leaders disputing 4th, pushed along edging left over 2f out, soon ridden, stayed on to dispute 2nd inside final furlong, no extra in 3rd towards finish
Plus: class (W); distance (F); down 2lbs (wt); up in distance;
Minus: going (?); course (?); 147-day break; up 4lbs (wt);
Verdict: not yet won at further than 14f, but flashes of hope last season; first run for new yard could perhaps tell is more.
Trumpet Man 4-9-3 (97) Dr 13 (0.9)
’20 record 3/1/10 Best: 192.5 off 97 carrying 9-2 (Cl 2 Hcap 14f AW Chelm)
07/11/20 Cl 2 Hcap (123/98.5) 14f AW Chelm 9-2 11/8 2/2 3 l off 97
led, ridden and headed over 1f out, no extra final furlong
Plus: class (F); distance (F);
Minus: going; course (?); 147-day break; up 1lb (wt);
Verdict: rapid improvement in last 4 races once he was raised in distance and final start on the AW was not really run to suit being a speed test; another of the Johnston entries.
A race where the recent form is of course all AW, and for the turf form you have to look back a bit to find. It’s not a race where there’s an obvious solution, other than the favourite, Nate The Great who has some positive AW form to show. However, I’m going to row against that as it was over 16.5f and go for a horse that could be very well handicapped. King’s Advice paid the price for his very productive start to his track career and after drawing a blank last year looks ideally placed to run a big race. So for me it’s King’s Advice and to chase him home I’m taking a chance on Indianapolis and Trumpet Man.