Post by Old Timer on Mar 19, 2021 10:40:31 GMT
Finally got a few hours spare. A race I rarely look at, and it’s a madhouse as normal. So pardon me for getting involved, but March Madness has gotten to me too. Promise I’ll be back tomorrow, trying to pick reasoned winners!
Cheltenham 13.55 Gr 3 Handicap Hurdle 422 (141.1) 17f gd/sf – 26 Run
Last year – 563 (140.0) sf – 24 ran
Saint Roi 11/2 F 5-10-13 (137) by 4.5 l from Aramon 8/1 7-11-11 (149)
Buildmeupbuttercup 16/1 6-11-3 (131) was 4.7 l 4th
Gowel Road 5-10-8 (137)
‘20/21 record: 2/1/4
21/02/21 Cl 3 NHd (59/) 16.5f gs/sf Newb 11-8 7/2 1/12 5.5 l off 131
led, ran around approaching 2nd, headed 3 out, led again after last, stayed on well flat
Plus: going (W); distance (W); form run lto (26 days); down 14lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up in class; up 6lbs (OR);
Verdict: steady improvement in his 4 starts, winning the last two, including a Cl 4 HHd; up in class today but has not been troubled in his improvement and might be worth a try, especially with first-time cheekpieces fitted.
Captain Kangaroo 6-10-2 (131)
‘20/21 record: 0/3/4
13/02/20 Mdn Hd 15.5f yld/sf Naas 4/9 F 12-0 2/17 2.5 l
prominent, soon 2nd, 3rd after 3rd, on terms approaching 3 out, soon led, joined straight, headed after 2 out, kept on same pace run-in
Plus: going (F); distance (F); form run lto (34 days); 26lbs down (wt);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up in class; HHd debut;
Verdict: won bumper on only start last season and has made first 4 home in each of his novice hurdle races this; one of 5 Mullins entries and fits the trends well save for the fact he’s making his HHd debut and yet to win over hurdles.
Third Time Lucki 6-11-0 (143)
‘20/21 record: 3/1/5
07/02/21 Cl 2 NHd (130/) 15.5 sf Muss 11-6 10/11/F 4/7 5 l off 144
tracked leaders, pressed leader from 2 out to last where made mistake, no extra run-in and lost two places inside final 110 yards
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (F); course (F); latest run (40 days); down 6lbs (wt); down 1lb (OR);
Minus:
Verdict: won 2 of 3 bumpers and then was 4th in the Champion Bumper at last year’s Festival; has won 3 of 5 novices this year, being 2/6 in a Gr 2 novice here in November and lost his chance with a mistake at the last at Musselburgh lto; the Skeltons have high hopes of him improving their great race record of late, but he’s another making his hcap debut.
Ganapathi 5-10-11 (140)
‘20/21 record: 1/1/3
06/22/21 Gr 1 NHd 22f sf Naas 11-10 18/1 5/13 19.05 l
towards rear, headway after 3 out and 6th next, 4th and pushed along entering straight, no impression before last, no extra run-in
17/01/21 Gr 2 NHd 16f hv Punch 11-2 7/2 2/7 3 l
waited with, off pace in 5th from 3rd, headway and pushed along from 2 out, led approaching last, headed run-in, one pace
Plus: class (F+); distance (F); recent outing (41 days); down in class; down 11lbs (wt);
Minus: going (?); course (?);
Verdict: just the 3 hurdle starts, winning the first over 16f at Cork in November and then ruining second at Punchestown, before finding the 22f too far in Gr 1 at Naas, being beaten by his more fancied stable companion Gaillard Du Mesnil; will find the drop back in trip more to his liking and from the jockey booking Mullins first string; however, he too is making his hcap debut.
Having sorted out my shortlist one way, I was horrified to find I had chosen the only 3 horses in the field making their handicap debuts, and just one winner has done that since 1994! So, although Ganapathi, Third Time Lucki and Captain Kangaroo have chances of making the frame, the odds on them actually winning are very small indeed.
So having told you what’s not going to win (probably), I’ll have a go at Gowel Road, to which I’ll add Fifty Ball, and as a rank outsider Saint D’oroux.
Cheltenham 13.55 Gr 3 Handicap Hurdle 422 (141.1) 17f gd/sf – 26 Run
Last year – 563 (140.0) sf – 24 ran
Saint Roi 11/2 F 5-10-13 (137) by 4.5 l from Aramon 8/1 7-11-11 (149)
Buildmeupbuttercup 16/1 6-11-3 (131) was 4.7 l 4th
Gowel Road 5-10-8 (137)
‘20/21 record: 2/1/4
21/02/21 Cl 3 NHd (59/) 16.5f gs/sf Newb 11-8 7/2 1/12 5.5 l off 131
led, ran around approaching 2nd, headed 3 out, led again after last, stayed on well flat
Plus: going (W); distance (W); form run lto (26 days); down 14lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up in class; up 6lbs (OR);
Verdict: steady improvement in his 4 starts, winning the last two, including a Cl 4 HHd; up in class today but has not been troubled in his improvement and might be worth a try, especially with first-time cheekpieces fitted.
Captain Kangaroo 6-10-2 (131)
‘20/21 record: 0/3/4
13/02/20 Mdn Hd 15.5f yld/sf Naas 4/9 F 12-0 2/17 2.5 l
prominent, soon 2nd, 3rd after 3rd, on terms approaching 3 out, soon led, joined straight, headed after 2 out, kept on same pace run-in
Plus: going (F); distance (F); form run lto (34 days); 26lbs down (wt);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up in class; HHd debut;
Verdict: won bumper on only start last season and has made first 4 home in each of his novice hurdle races this; one of 5 Mullins entries and fits the trends well save for the fact he’s making his HHd debut and yet to win over hurdles.
Third Time Lucki 6-11-0 (143)
‘20/21 record: 3/1/5
07/02/21 Cl 2 NHd (130/) 15.5 sf Muss 11-6 10/11/F 4/7 5 l off 144
tracked leaders, pressed leader from 2 out to last where made mistake, no extra run-in and lost two places inside final 110 yards
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (F); course (F); latest run (40 days); down 6lbs (wt); down 1lb (OR);
Minus:
Verdict: won 2 of 3 bumpers and then was 4th in the Champion Bumper at last year’s Festival; has won 3 of 5 novices this year, being 2/6 in a Gr 2 novice here in November and lost his chance with a mistake at the last at Musselburgh lto; the Skeltons have high hopes of him improving their great race record of late, but he’s another making his hcap debut.
Ganapathi 5-10-11 (140)
‘20/21 record: 1/1/3
06/22/21 Gr 1 NHd 22f sf Naas 11-10 18/1 5/13 19.05 l
towards rear, headway after 3 out and 6th next, 4th and pushed along entering straight, no impression before last, no extra run-in
17/01/21 Gr 2 NHd 16f hv Punch 11-2 7/2 2/7 3 l
waited with, off pace in 5th from 3rd, headway and pushed along from 2 out, led approaching last, headed run-in, one pace
Plus: class (F+); distance (F); recent outing (41 days); down in class; down 11lbs (wt);
Minus: going (?); course (?);
Verdict: just the 3 hurdle starts, winning the first over 16f at Cork in November and then ruining second at Punchestown, before finding the 22f too far in Gr 1 at Naas, being beaten by his more fancied stable companion Gaillard Du Mesnil; will find the drop back in trip more to his liking and from the jockey booking Mullins first string; however, he too is making his hcap debut.
Having sorted out my shortlist one way, I was horrified to find I had chosen the only 3 horses in the field making their handicap debuts, and just one winner has done that since 1994! So, although Ganapathi, Third Time Lucki and Captain Kangaroo have chances of making the frame, the odds on them actually winning are very small indeed.
So having told you what’s not going to win (probably), I’ll have a go at Gowel Road, to which I’ll add Fifty Ball, and as a rank outsider Saint D’oroux.