Post by Old Timer on Mar 16, 2021 12:28:30 GMT
Not too shabby on Saturday, even if I’m still having trouble with the order. Well, the Ultima Chase is the first – and likely the last – race I’ll look at for this year’s Cheltenham. I’ve got a feeling I’ve got it wrong, but if it’s to be my sole attempt at this year’s Cheltenham, at least I can say I tried.
Cheltenham 14.30 Gr 3 Handicap Chase 464 (144.0) 25f sf – 16 Run
Last year – 619 (144.0) sf – 23 Run
The Conditional 15/2 8-10-6 (139) by 0.25l from Kildisart 10/1 8-11-3 (150)
Cepage 14/1 8-11-8 (144) was 10.5 l 7th
Vintage Clouds 28/1 19-11-4 (151) was 15.5 l 8th
Soupy Soups 50/1 9-10-5 (138) PU before 2 out
Aye Right 8-11-8 (154) (3.6)
‘19/20 record: 2/1/5
’20/21 record: 0/4/4 Best: 294.4 off 151 carrying 11-7 (List HCh 24f sf Donc)
30/01/21 List HCh (427/144.6) 24f sf Donc 11-7 8/1 2/11 1.25 l off 151
chased leader, led 5th until 7th, led again 10th until before next, in front again after 13th, rider dropped whip before 2 out, headed and no extra final 110 yards
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (45 days);
Minus: up in class; up 1lb (wt); up 3lbs (OR);
Verdict: the ‘nearly horse’ this season having been runner-up in the Ladbrokes and in the Sky Bet lto; upped another 3lbs for that which moves him to 11-8 off 154, which is a little pushy for this, so maybe only bridesmaid again.
Milan Native 8-11-3 (149) (11.7)
‘19/20 record: 1/0/3 Best: 281.3 off 141 carrying 11-1 (Cl2 HCh 26f sf Chelt)
’20/21 record: 1/1/4
27/12/20 Gr B HCh (825/140.4) 24f yld Leop 11-3 28/1 15/22 36 l off 148
held up, progress into 8th 5 out, ridden and no extra 2 out
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W);
Minus: class; break (79 days); up 1lb (OR);
Verdict: everything against it, as it’s Irish trained and coming back from a breathing operation; what’s more it’s one of the Elliott horses that has been farmed out for the next 6 months; would have a chance if recapturing the form it showed when winning the Kim Muir at last year’s Festival; however, he’s off an 8lbs higher mark and with all his other problems it would take a brave soul to pick him to win.
Happygolucky 7-11-1 (147) (??)
‘19/20 record: 1/1/4 (all hurdles)
’20/21 record: 2/1/3 Best: ? off 142 carrying 11-6 (Cl 2 NCh 25.5f gd/sf Chelt)
11/12/20 Cl 2 NCh (130/) 25.5f gd/sf Chelt 11-6 13/8 F 1/5 3.75 l off 142
chased leader, challenged 4 out, stumbled 3 out, led before 2 out, clear and edged left flat, stayed on, ridden out
Plus: going (Fh), distance (W); course (W); form run lto; down 5lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?), break (95 days); up in class; up 5lbs (OR); hcap debut;
Verdict: good 4th in Martin Pipe Conditional at last year’s Festival and has won 2 of 3 chase starts this term, although has yet to run since December and form of last win doesn’t look that good; obviously a promising recruit to the chasing game, but not one I’d be backing as favourite in this.
One For The Team 7-10-8 (140)
‘19/20 record: 1/3/4 (all hurdles)
’20/21 record: 0/1/5 Best: 265.6 off 141 carrying 10-11 (List HCh 24f sf Donc)
30/01/21 List HCh (427/144.6) 24f sf Donc 10-11 5/1 5/13 32.75 l off 141
chased leaders on inside, pushed along after 14th, ridden and weakened before next
Plus: class (F+); distance (Wh); recent outing (45 days); down 3lbs (wt); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: going; course (?); up in class;
Verdict: early promise over fences when good second in a Gr 2 novice at Newbury and then wasn’t disgraced in a Gr 1 novice at Kempton; some way adrift in the Sky Bet lto, however, and may be ground dependent; in that case will need the ground to dry out quickly.
Smaller field than usual which may mean the stats don’t hold true, but generally horses that haven’t won over at least 3m are not favoured. Neither are ORs over 150 or weights above 11-5, but there’s been some movement in recent years so it could go. The latest check on the going still confirms that it’s only gd/sf in places, so I’m afraid that really spoils and chance One For The Team might have. I’m caught with the usual lack of handicap form for the favourite and while he may well win, I think he’s plenty short enough, especially as the pair he beat so handily last time have both come out and failed miserably. Milan Native took the Kim Muir in convincing fashion and if the wind op works could change the luck of the Irish in the race, but I’m going to go with Aye Right to beat him home and gain that notable win he’s been threatening. So Aye Right from Milan Native and Happygolucky, and fingers crossed.
Cheltenham 14.30 Gr 3 Handicap Chase 464 (144.0) 25f sf – 16 Run
Last year – 619 (144.0) sf – 23 Run
The Conditional 15/2 8-10-6 (139) by 0.25l from Kildisart 10/1 8-11-3 (150)
Cepage 14/1 8-11-8 (144) was 10.5 l 7th
Vintage Clouds 28/1 19-11-4 (151) was 15.5 l 8th
Soupy Soups 50/1 9-10-5 (138) PU before 2 out
Aye Right 8-11-8 (154) (3.6)
‘19/20 record: 2/1/5
’20/21 record: 0/4/4 Best: 294.4 off 151 carrying 11-7 (List HCh 24f sf Donc)
30/01/21 List HCh (427/144.6) 24f sf Donc 11-7 8/1 2/11 1.25 l off 151
chased leader, led 5th until 7th, led again 10th until before next, in front again after 13th, rider dropped whip before 2 out, headed and no extra final 110 yards
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (45 days);
Minus: up in class; up 1lb (wt); up 3lbs (OR);
Verdict: the ‘nearly horse’ this season having been runner-up in the Ladbrokes and in the Sky Bet lto; upped another 3lbs for that which moves him to 11-8 off 154, which is a little pushy for this, so maybe only bridesmaid again.
Milan Native 8-11-3 (149) (11.7)
‘19/20 record: 1/0/3 Best: 281.3 off 141 carrying 11-1 (Cl2 HCh 26f sf Chelt)
’20/21 record: 1/1/4
27/12/20 Gr B HCh (825/140.4) 24f yld Leop 11-3 28/1 15/22 36 l off 148
held up, progress into 8th 5 out, ridden and no extra 2 out
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W);
Minus: class; break (79 days); up 1lb (OR);
Verdict: everything against it, as it’s Irish trained and coming back from a breathing operation; what’s more it’s one of the Elliott horses that has been farmed out for the next 6 months; would have a chance if recapturing the form it showed when winning the Kim Muir at last year’s Festival; however, he’s off an 8lbs higher mark and with all his other problems it would take a brave soul to pick him to win.
Happygolucky 7-11-1 (147) (??)
‘19/20 record: 1/1/4 (all hurdles)
’20/21 record: 2/1/3 Best: ? off 142 carrying 11-6 (Cl 2 NCh 25.5f gd/sf Chelt)
11/12/20 Cl 2 NCh (130/) 25.5f gd/sf Chelt 11-6 13/8 F 1/5 3.75 l off 142
chased leader, challenged 4 out, stumbled 3 out, led before 2 out, clear and edged left flat, stayed on, ridden out
Plus: going (Fh), distance (W); course (W); form run lto; down 5lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?), break (95 days); up in class; up 5lbs (OR); hcap debut;
Verdict: good 4th in Martin Pipe Conditional at last year’s Festival and has won 2 of 3 chase starts this term, although has yet to run since December and form of last win doesn’t look that good; obviously a promising recruit to the chasing game, but not one I’d be backing as favourite in this.
One For The Team 7-10-8 (140)
‘19/20 record: 1/3/4 (all hurdles)
’20/21 record: 0/1/5 Best: 265.6 off 141 carrying 10-11 (List HCh 24f sf Donc)
30/01/21 List HCh (427/144.6) 24f sf Donc 10-11 5/1 5/13 32.75 l off 141
chased leaders on inside, pushed along after 14th, ridden and weakened before next
Plus: class (F+); distance (Wh); recent outing (45 days); down 3lbs (wt); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: going; course (?); up in class;
Verdict: early promise over fences when good second in a Gr 2 novice at Newbury and then wasn’t disgraced in a Gr 1 novice at Kempton; some way adrift in the Sky Bet lto, however, and may be ground dependent; in that case will need the ground to dry out quickly.
Smaller field than usual which may mean the stats don’t hold true, but generally horses that haven’t won over at least 3m are not favoured. Neither are ORs over 150 or weights above 11-5, but there’s been some movement in recent years so it could go. The latest check on the going still confirms that it’s only gd/sf in places, so I’m afraid that really spoils and chance One For The Team might have. I’m caught with the usual lack of handicap form for the favourite and while he may well win, I think he’s plenty short enough, especially as the pair he beat so handily last time have both come out and failed miserably. Milan Native took the Kim Muir in convincing fashion and if the wind op works could change the luck of the Irish in the race, but I’m going to go with Aye Right to beat him home and gain that notable win he’s been threatening. So Aye Right from Milan Native and Happygolucky, and fingers crossed.