Post by Old Timer on Mar 6, 2021 11:47:10 GMT
Well last week turned out better than expected, though as a friend of mine remarked, “Plenty of time for things to go wrong again before Cheltenham.” I hope they don’t start today!
Newbury 13.15 Cl 2 Handicap Chase 125 (135.3) 26f gd – 10 Run
Last year – – Meeting Abandoned
Present Man 11-11-12 (145)
‘19/20 record: 0/0/1
‘20/21 record: 1/0/3 Best: 279.6 off 144 carrying 11-9 (Cl 2 HCh 23.5f gd Chep)
18/11/20 Cl 2 HCh (160/140.9) 24f gd/sf Warw 11-10 7/2 L/7 26.75 off l46
raced in 4th, mistake 3rd, went 3rd 10th until before 12th, soon struggling
Plus: class (W); going (gd); distance (W); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: course; up 2 lbs (wt); 108 days break;
Verdict: goes well fresh and has been given a lengthy break in hopes of returning him to the form of his season’s return.
West Approach 11-11-12 (145) (M 8.3)
‘19/20 record: 1/2/6
‘20/21 record: 0/1/4 Best: 288.6 off 147 carrying 10-8 (Cl2 HCh 25f gd Chelt)
24/02/21 Cl 2 HCh (125/139.9) 25f gf/sf Donc 11-12 15/2 4/8 7.25 l off 147
raced keenly, chased leaders, 4th and no impression from 3 out
Plus: class (W+); going (F); distance (F); recent form run (10 days); down 2lbs (OR);
Minus: course;
Verdict: best effort of season on return when runner-up to Frodon over 25f on gd at Cheltenham; suggested still in form at Doncaster lto on gd/sf,
Sir Ivan 11-11-3 (136)
‘19/20 record: 1/0/4
‘20/21 record: 0/3/3 Best: 270.7 off 135 carrying 10-8 (Cl 2 HCh 24f sf Sand)
02/01/21 Cl 2 HCh (433/137.9) 24f sf Sand 10-8 20/1 3/15 2.25 l off 135
chased leaders, went 2nd 3 out until ridden run-in, kept on same pace in 3rd
Plus: class (F); going (F); form run lto;
Minus: distance; course; 63 days break; up 9lbs (wt); up 1lb (OR); up 2f;
Verdict: solidly in form this season, but prefers ground on the softer side of gd and has no form beyond 24f.
Veteran handicap and it a case of guessing which one can return to form in staying 26f on gd ground. That may negate a lot, but I’m putting my hopes in the top two and take West Approach from Present Man with perhaps Sir Ivan third.
Newbury 13.50 Gr 3 Handicap Chase 228 (141.2) 20f gd – 14 Run
Last year – Meeting Abandoned
Another Crick 8-10-6 (133) (1.6)
‘20/21 record: 0/1/2 Best: 272.6 off 134 carrying 10-5 (Cl 2 HCh 290f sf Warw)
15/02 Cl 2 HCh (219/143.3) 20f sf Warw 10-5 12/1 3/12 4.75 l off 134
midfield, took closer order before 11th where not fluent, chased leaders when ridden after 3 out, hit 2 out, weakened flat
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (19 days); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: class (?); up 1lb (wt); up in class;
Verdict: was improving chaser 2 seasons back but missed the whole of last season; runner-up in NHd to get in the swing of things and then ran promising 4th in decent Cl 2 HCh at Warwick; that should have put him about right for today and not without a chance.
The Big Bite 8-11-5 (146) (8.9)
‘19/20 record: 1/1/3
‘20/21 record: 1/1/2 Best: 278.3 off 144 carrying 11-9 (Cl 2 Hcap 16.5f sf Donc)
28/01/21 Cl 2 HCh (125/137.8) 16.5 f sf Donc 11-9 2/1 3.5 l off 144
with leader, led 8th, headed after 3 out, held flat, kept on
Plus: distance (W); recent form run (36 days); down 4lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); going; course (?); up 2lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: moved from George to Oliver yard between seasons and based on Doncaster run will appreciate the return to 20f (has already won over it); rises in class again, but only sixth start over fences; not without a chance.
Umbrigado 7-11-3 (144)
‘20/21 record: 2/1/4 Best: 267.2 off 139 carrying 11-12 (Cl 3 HCh 14f sf Weth)
17/02/21 Cl 3 HCh (70/128.2) 15f sf Weth 11-12 7/2 1/10 2.5 l off 139
mid-division on outside, closed from 8th, challenged 4 out, led and mistake 3 out, slow 2 out, driven out
Plus: distance (W); recent form run (17 days); down 9lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); going; course (?); up 5lbs (OR); up 2 classes;
Verdict: just the 3 starts over fences winning over19.5f at Fontwell and then winning his hcap debut over 15f at Wetherby; will appreciate the return to the longer distance and has only been raised 5lbs for his win; however, is going up 2 classes and has never won in higher than Cl 3; maybe a little too much too soon.
Grand Sancy 7-11-8 (149) (??)
‘19/20 record: 1/1/5
‘20/21 record: 1/0/2 Best: 298.0 off 149 carrying 11-2 (List NCh 19.5f gd Chep)
07/11/20 Gr 2 NCh (152/) 20f gd Winc 11-7 4/5 F L/3 56 l off 149
raced keenly, held up in close 3rd, blundered badly 12th, jumped left after, weakened quickly 4 out, soon eased
10/10/20 List NCh (116/) 19.5f gd Chep 11-2 5/4 1/3 13 l off 149
held up, keen in 2nd place jumping the 3rd, upsides 5 out, led narrowly 4 out, clear 2 out, eased close home, easily
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); down in class;
Minus: course (?); 119 days break; 1lb more; hcap debut;
Verdict: had wind surgery before the season and reappeared in fine form at Chepstow where he trotted home; lost any chance at the 12th at Wincanton next and not seen since; makes hcap bow and given his trainer’s exceptional record in the race (won 9 of last 13) he has to be respected.
Of others worthy of note, Killer Clown has gone up 15lbs and Pistol Whipped is a little under-prepared with just the single start this season. The favourite, Grand Saucy has no handicap form on which to rank him and has a long break since his last, disappointing run. However, given Nicholls record in the race and his previous form I am somewhat fearful. The Big Bite will relish the return to 20f and it may well be the making of himj for his new yard. However, hovering in the lower reaches of the handicap lies Another Crick. A horse that looks decidedly well- handicapped to me. At the price I feel he’s nailed on to make the frame, so for me it’s Another Crick from possibly The Big Bite and Grand Saucy, with hopes that Umbrigado won’t queer my pitch.
Newbury 13.15 Cl 2 Handicap Chase 125 (135.3) 26f gd – 10 Run
Last year – – Meeting Abandoned
Present Man 11-11-12 (145)
‘19/20 record: 0/0/1
‘20/21 record: 1/0/3 Best: 279.6 off 144 carrying 11-9 (Cl 2 HCh 23.5f gd Chep)
18/11/20 Cl 2 HCh (160/140.9) 24f gd/sf Warw 11-10 7/2 L/7 26.75 off l46
raced in 4th, mistake 3rd, went 3rd 10th until before 12th, soon struggling
Plus: class (W); going (gd); distance (W); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: course; up 2 lbs (wt); 108 days break;
Verdict: goes well fresh and has been given a lengthy break in hopes of returning him to the form of his season’s return.
West Approach 11-11-12 (145) (M 8.3)
‘19/20 record: 1/2/6
‘20/21 record: 0/1/4 Best: 288.6 off 147 carrying 10-8 (Cl2 HCh 25f gd Chelt)
24/02/21 Cl 2 HCh (125/139.9) 25f gf/sf Donc 11-12 15/2 4/8 7.25 l off 147
raced keenly, chased leaders, 4th and no impression from 3 out
Plus: class (W+); going (F); distance (F); recent form run (10 days); down 2lbs (OR);
Minus: course;
Verdict: best effort of season on return when runner-up to Frodon over 25f on gd at Cheltenham; suggested still in form at Doncaster lto on gd/sf,
Sir Ivan 11-11-3 (136)
‘19/20 record: 1/0/4
‘20/21 record: 0/3/3 Best: 270.7 off 135 carrying 10-8 (Cl 2 HCh 24f sf Sand)
02/01/21 Cl 2 HCh (433/137.9) 24f sf Sand 10-8 20/1 3/15 2.25 l off 135
chased leaders, went 2nd 3 out until ridden run-in, kept on same pace in 3rd
Plus: class (F); going (F); form run lto;
Minus: distance; course; 63 days break; up 9lbs (wt); up 1lb (OR); up 2f;
Verdict: solidly in form this season, but prefers ground on the softer side of gd and has no form beyond 24f.
Veteran handicap and it a case of guessing which one can return to form in staying 26f on gd ground. That may negate a lot, but I’m putting my hopes in the top two and take West Approach from Present Man with perhaps Sir Ivan third.
Newbury 13.50 Gr 3 Handicap Chase 228 (141.2) 20f gd – 14 Run
Last year – Meeting Abandoned
Another Crick 8-10-6 (133) (1.6)
‘20/21 record: 0/1/2 Best: 272.6 off 134 carrying 10-5 (Cl 2 HCh 290f sf Warw)
15/02 Cl 2 HCh (219/143.3) 20f sf Warw 10-5 12/1 3/12 4.75 l off 134
midfield, took closer order before 11th where not fluent, chased leaders when ridden after 3 out, hit 2 out, weakened flat
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (19 days); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: class (?); up 1lb (wt); up in class;
Verdict: was improving chaser 2 seasons back but missed the whole of last season; runner-up in NHd to get in the swing of things and then ran promising 4th in decent Cl 2 HCh at Warwick; that should have put him about right for today and not without a chance.
The Big Bite 8-11-5 (146) (8.9)
‘19/20 record: 1/1/3
‘20/21 record: 1/1/2 Best: 278.3 off 144 carrying 11-9 (Cl 2 Hcap 16.5f sf Donc)
28/01/21 Cl 2 HCh (125/137.8) 16.5 f sf Donc 11-9 2/1 3.5 l off 144
with leader, led 8th, headed after 3 out, held flat, kept on
Plus: distance (W); recent form run (36 days); down 4lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); going; course (?); up 2lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: moved from George to Oliver yard between seasons and based on Doncaster run will appreciate the return to 20f (has already won over it); rises in class again, but only sixth start over fences; not without a chance.
Umbrigado 7-11-3 (144)
‘20/21 record: 2/1/4 Best: 267.2 off 139 carrying 11-12 (Cl 3 HCh 14f sf Weth)
17/02/21 Cl 3 HCh (70/128.2) 15f sf Weth 11-12 7/2 1/10 2.5 l off 139
mid-division on outside, closed from 8th, challenged 4 out, led and mistake 3 out, slow 2 out, driven out
Plus: distance (W); recent form run (17 days); down 9lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); going; course (?); up 5lbs (OR); up 2 classes;
Verdict: just the 3 starts over fences winning over19.5f at Fontwell and then winning his hcap debut over 15f at Wetherby; will appreciate the return to the longer distance and has only been raised 5lbs for his win; however, is going up 2 classes and has never won in higher than Cl 3; maybe a little too much too soon.
Grand Sancy 7-11-8 (149) (??)
‘19/20 record: 1/1/5
‘20/21 record: 1/0/2 Best: 298.0 off 149 carrying 11-2 (List NCh 19.5f gd Chep)
07/11/20 Gr 2 NCh (152/) 20f gd Winc 11-7 4/5 F L/3 56 l off 149
raced keenly, held up in close 3rd, blundered badly 12th, jumped left after, weakened quickly 4 out, soon eased
10/10/20 List NCh (116/) 19.5f gd Chep 11-2 5/4 1/3 13 l off 149
held up, keen in 2nd place jumping the 3rd, upsides 5 out, led narrowly 4 out, clear 2 out, eased close home, easily
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); down in class;
Minus: course (?); 119 days break; 1lb more; hcap debut;
Verdict: had wind surgery before the season and reappeared in fine form at Chepstow where he trotted home; lost any chance at the 12th at Wincanton next and not seen since; makes hcap bow and given his trainer’s exceptional record in the race (won 9 of last 13) he has to be respected.
Of others worthy of note, Killer Clown has gone up 15lbs and Pistol Whipped is a little under-prepared with just the single start this season. The favourite, Grand Saucy has no handicap form on which to rank him and has a long break since his last, disappointing run. However, given Nicholls record in the race and his previous form I am somewhat fearful. The Big Bite will relish the return to 20f and it may well be the making of himj for his new yard. However, hovering in the lower reaches of the handicap lies Another Crick. A horse that looks decidedly well- handicapped to me. At the price I feel he’s nailed on to make the frame, so for me it’s Another Crick from possibly The Big Bite and Grand Saucy, with hopes that Umbrigado won’t queer my pitch.