Post by Old Timer on Feb 27, 2021 11:26:58 GMT
Was never at the races last Sunday, and that’s as bad as it gets. Let’s hope that’s the end of a bad month and things will start to turn round today. It's been a bad year so far!
Newcastle 15.15 Cl 2 Handicap Chase 438 (132.8) 33.5f sf – 12 Run
Last year – meeting abandoned
Crosspark 11-11-12 (150) (M 2.1)
‘19/20 record: 0/0/3
‘20/21 record: 0/4/4 Best: 284.9 off 149 carrying 11-10 (Cl 2 HCh 24f sf Sand)
02/01/21 Cl 2 HCh (433/137.9) 24f sf Sand 11-10 8/1 1/15 1 l off 148
mid-division on inside, mistake 15th, headway chasing leaders before 4 out, pushed along before next, went 3rd before 2 out, stumbled last, went 2nd run-in, stayed on
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (W); recent form run (56 days);
Minus: up 2lbs (wt); up 2lbs (OR);
Verdict: won the last renewal here in 2019 off 135 and subsequently finished 2nd in the Scottish National off 142; last year was a non-event being PU in 2 of his 3 starts, but has returned to form this season finishing runner-up in 3 veteran chases as well as the London National; weight in itself is no problem, but he has never run off a mark this high in his whole career, his highest mark being 135; plus, he wouldn’t want the going to get any softer.
Salty Boy 8-10-0 (124) (4.3)
‘19/20 record: 0/1/5
‘20/21 record: 0/1/4 Best: 252.5 off 125 carrying 10-10 (Cl 2 HCh 25.5f hv Hayd)
03/01/21 Cl 3 HCh (105/120.0) 28.5f sf Plum 11-5 9/2 6/12 5.6 l off 125
chased leaders on inside, outpaced after 3 out, well held after
19/12/20 Cl 2 Hayd (250/133.7) 25.5f hv Hayd 10-7 14/1 3/10 6.25 l off 125
held up, headway 12th, ridden to chase leaders before 4 out, outpaced before 2 out, stayed on from last, took 3rd flat
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (F?); form run lto (55 days), down 19lbs (wt); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: course (?); up in class;
Verdict: import from Ireland in first season with Bridgwater; noted on third start in Tommy Whittle at Haydock when 6.25l 3/10 to Sam’s Adventure (+11); subsequently disappointed somewhat in the Sussex National at Plumpton where he didn’t make any gains on the step up in distance; meets SA on 4lbs better terms, but not certain to reverse over the longer trip.
Sam’s Adventure 9-11-1 (139) (5.1)
‘19/20 record: 1/2/5
‘20/21 record: 1/0/4 Best: 266.7 off 133 carrying 11-4 (Cl 2 HCh 25.5f hv Hayd)
23/01/21 Gr 2 HCh (269/139.5) 25.5f hv Hayd 10-7 11/4 UR/8 off 139
tracked leaders, blundered and unseated 6 out
19/12/20 Cl 2 Hayd (250/133.7) 25.5f hv Hayd 11-4 14/1 1/10 4 l off 133
midfield, reminder after 1st, took closer order 11th, close up travelling strongly 4 out, ridden before 2 out, led before last, stayed on strongly flat
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (w?); course (F); recent outing (35 days); recent form run (70 days); down in class;
Minus: up 8lbs (wt);
Verdict: handles ground up to hv, and indications in winning the Tommy Whittle that he’ll stay further; appears the most likely.
With four from out of the handicap, it’s a bit hard to find credible contenders. Outside of the above three, however, one could perhaps make a case for Big River who was not disgraced in the Welsh National. Nevertheless my vote goes for Sam’s Adventure, who is likely to relegate Crosspark to the runner-up spot with Salty Boy perhaps in third.
Kempton 15.35 Gr 3 Handicap Chase 427 (145.3) 24f gd – 18 Run
Last year – 570 (145.5) gd/sf – 14 ran
Mister Malarky 9/1 7-11-0 (147) by 2 l from Black Corton 5/1 F 9-11-12 (159)
Double Shuffle 12/1 10-11-3 (150) was 18.25 l 7th
Romain De Senam 33/1 8-11-1 (148) was 27.25 l 8th
Talkischeap 30/1 8-11-10 (157) – was PU before last
Al Dancer 8-11-7 (153) (1.4)
‘19/20 record: 1/1/5
‘20/21 record: 1/1/3 Best: 296.9 off 154 carrying 11-8 (Gr 3 HCh 20f sf Chelt)
12/12/20 Gr 3 HCh (598/145.6) 20.5f sf Chelt 11-9 5/1 F 9/17 57.75 l off 154
held up in mid-division, lost place when hampered 5th, some headway 12th, no impression, mistake 3 out, soon well behind
14/11/20 Gr 3 HCh (740/147.1) 20f sf Chelt 11-8 5/1 F 3/16 4.25 l off 154
mid-division, not fluent 6th,, headway 11th, went 2nd 3 out until before 2 out, 4th when pecked last, went 3rd towards finish, kept on, no impression on winner
Plus: class (F); going (Wh); down 1lb (wt); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: dist (?); course; 77days break;
Verdict: loads of promise in the Paddy Power, but failed to back it up in Caspian Caviar and not been seen since; unproven at the distance; methinks he has much to prove.
Clondaw Castle 9-11-8 (154) (6.9)
‘19/20 record: 1/1/3
‘20/21 record: 1/2/4 Best: 296.9 off 142 carrying 11-4 (Gr 2 HCh 20f sf Aint)
09/01/21 Gr 2 Ch (216/) 20.5f Kemp 11-0 6/1 2/3 12l off 155
held up 3rd, left tracking winner 2nd, closer 10th, pushed along and lost 2nd before 3 out, went 2nd again 2 out, no chance with winner
Plus: class (F+); going (W); course (F); recent form (?) run (49 days); down in class; down 1lb (OR);
Minus: distance (?); up 8lbs (wt);
Verdict: has improved this season and returned to hcaps after credible efforts in Gr 2; the only problem is that we have to take the 24f on trust, as he’s never tried further than 20.5f before.
Cap Du Nord 8-10-10 (142) (7.4)
‘19/20 record: 1/1/6
‘20/21 record: 1/2/4 Best: 279. 9 off 139 carrying 10-6 (List HCh 24f sf Donc)
30/01/21 List HCh (427/144.6) 24f sf Donc 10-6 4/1 F 3/11 3.75 l off 139
mid-division on inside, headway chasing leaders when hit 13th, ridden disputing 2nd 3 out, blundered next, outright 2nd at the last, ridden and no extra in 3rd run-in
Plus: going (W); distance (F); course (F); recent form run (28 days);
Minus: class (?); up 1lb (wt); up 3lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: has improved in level of form of late as upping to 24f has given him a wider scope; had Double Shuffle (+12) and Mellow Ben (+5) well behind when 2nd over C&D here on penultimate start, with the winner going on to claim the Peter Marsh; then had The Butcher Said (+3) and Mister Malarky (+20) similarly behind him in the Sky Bet;
Plenty of likely contenders, but the problem with some are they’re not proven at the distance. Among others, that means I have to have my doubts about Al Dancer. I could be wrong, but…. I know Clondaw Castle hasn’t tried beyond 20.4f either, but I’ve just got a sneaking feeling that he’ll stay. For the winner though, I have to go with Cap Du Nord who is only 8yo and looks to be just coming into his prime this season. So for me it’s Cap Du Nord from Clondaw Castle with perhaps Al Dancer taking third.
Newcastle 15.15 Cl 2 Handicap Chase 438 (132.8) 33.5f sf – 12 Run
Last year – meeting abandoned
Crosspark 11-11-12 (150) (M 2.1)
‘19/20 record: 0/0/3
‘20/21 record: 0/4/4 Best: 284.9 off 149 carrying 11-10 (Cl 2 HCh 24f sf Sand)
02/01/21 Cl 2 HCh (433/137.9) 24f sf Sand 11-10 8/1 1/15 1 l off 148
mid-division on inside, mistake 15th, headway chasing leaders before 4 out, pushed along before next, went 3rd before 2 out, stumbled last, went 2nd run-in, stayed on
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (W); recent form run (56 days);
Minus: up 2lbs (wt); up 2lbs (OR);
Verdict: won the last renewal here in 2019 off 135 and subsequently finished 2nd in the Scottish National off 142; last year was a non-event being PU in 2 of his 3 starts, but has returned to form this season finishing runner-up in 3 veteran chases as well as the London National; weight in itself is no problem, but he has never run off a mark this high in his whole career, his highest mark being 135; plus, he wouldn’t want the going to get any softer.
Salty Boy 8-10-0 (124) (4.3)
‘19/20 record: 0/1/5
‘20/21 record: 0/1/4 Best: 252.5 off 125 carrying 10-10 (Cl 2 HCh 25.5f hv Hayd)
03/01/21 Cl 3 HCh (105/120.0) 28.5f sf Plum 11-5 9/2 6/12 5.6 l off 125
chased leaders on inside, outpaced after 3 out, well held after
19/12/20 Cl 2 Hayd (250/133.7) 25.5f hv Hayd 10-7 14/1 3/10 6.25 l off 125
held up, headway 12th, ridden to chase leaders before 4 out, outpaced before 2 out, stayed on from last, took 3rd flat
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (F?); form run lto (55 days), down 19lbs (wt); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: course (?); up in class;
Verdict: import from Ireland in first season with Bridgwater; noted on third start in Tommy Whittle at Haydock when 6.25l 3/10 to Sam’s Adventure (+11); subsequently disappointed somewhat in the Sussex National at Plumpton where he didn’t make any gains on the step up in distance; meets SA on 4lbs better terms, but not certain to reverse over the longer trip.
Sam’s Adventure 9-11-1 (139) (5.1)
‘19/20 record: 1/2/5
‘20/21 record: 1/0/4 Best: 266.7 off 133 carrying 11-4 (Cl 2 HCh 25.5f hv Hayd)
23/01/21 Gr 2 HCh (269/139.5) 25.5f hv Hayd 10-7 11/4 UR/8 off 139
tracked leaders, blundered and unseated 6 out
19/12/20 Cl 2 Hayd (250/133.7) 25.5f hv Hayd 11-4 14/1 1/10 4 l off 133
midfield, reminder after 1st, took closer order 11th, close up travelling strongly 4 out, ridden before 2 out, led before last, stayed on strongly flat
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (w?); course (F); recent outing (35 days); recent form run (70 days); down in class;
Minus: up 8lbs (wt);
Verdict: handles ground up to hv, and indications in winning the Tommy Whittle that he’ll stay further; appears the most likely.
With four from out of the handicap, it’s a bit hard to find credible contenders. Outside of the above three, however, one could perhaps make a case for Big River who was not disgraced in the Welsh National. Nevertheless my vote goes for Sam’s Adventure, who is likely to relegate Crosspark to the runner-up spot with Salty Boy perhaps in third.
Kempton 15.35 Gr 3 Handicap Chase 427 (145.3) 24f gd – 18 Run
Last year – 570 (145.5) gd/sf – 14 ran
Mister Malarky 9/1 7-11-0 (147) by 2 l from Black Corton 5/1 F 9-11-12 (159)
Double Shuffle 12/1 10-11-3 (150) was 18.25 l 7th
Romain De Senam 33/1 8-11-1 (148) was 27.25 l 8th
Talkischeap 30/1 8-11-10 (157) – was PU before last
Al Dancer 8-11-7 (153) (1.4)
‘19/20 record: 1/1/5
‘20/21 record: 1/1/3 Best: 296.9 off 154 carrying 11-8 (Gr 3 HCh 20f sf Chelt)
12/12/20 Gr 3 HCh (598/145.6) 20.5f sf Chelt 11-9 5/1 F 9/17 57.75 l off 154
held up in mid-division, lost place when hampered 5th, some headway 12th, no impression, mistake 3 out, soon well behind
14/11/20 Gr 3 HCh (740/147.1) 20f sf Chelt 11-8 5/1 F 3/16 4.25 l off 154
mid-division, not fluent 6th,, headway 11th, went 2nd 3 out until before 2 out, 4th when pecked last, went 3rd towards finish, kept on, no impression on winner
Plus: class (F); going (Wh); down 1lb (wt); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: dist (?); course; 77days break;
Verdict: loads of promise in the Paddy Power, but failed to back it up in Caspian Caviar and not been seen since; unproven at the distance; methinks he has much to prove.
Clondaw Castle 9-11-8 (154) (6.9)
‘19/20 record: 1/1/3
‘20/21 record: 1/2/4 Best: 296.9 off 142 carrying 11-4 (Gr 2 HCh 20f sf Aint)
09/01/21 Gr 2 Ch (216/) 20.5f Kemp 11-0 6/1 2/3 12l off 155
held up 3rd, left tracking winner 2nd, closer 10th, pushed along and lost 2nd before 3 out, went 2nd again 2 out, no chance with winner
Plus: class (F+); going (W); course (F); recent form (?) run (49 days); down in class; down 1lb (OR);
Minus: distance (?); up 8lbs (wt);
Verdict: has improved this season and returned to hcaps after credible efforts in Gr 2; the only problem is that we have to take the 24f on trust, as he’s never tried further than 20.5f before.
Cap Du Nord 8-10-10 (142) (7.4)
‘19/20 record: 1/1/6
‘20/21 record: 1/2/4 Best: 279. 9 off 139 carrying 10-6 (List HCh 24f sf Donc)
30/01/21 List HCh (427/144.6) 24f sf Donc 10-6 4/1 F 3/11 3.75 l off 139
mid-division on inside, headway chasing leaders when hit 13th, ridden disputing 2nd 3 out, blundered next, outright 2nd at the last, ridden and no extra in 3rd run-in
Plus: going (W); distance (F); course (F); recent form run (28 days);
Minus: class (?); up 1lb (wt); up 3lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: has improved in level of form of late as upping to 24f has given him a wider scope; had Double Shuffle (+12) and Mellow Ben (+5) well behind when 2nd over C&D here on penultimate start, with the winner going on to claim the Peter Marsh; then had The Butcher Said (+3) and Mister Malarky (+20) similarly behind him in the Sky Bet;
Plenty of likely contenders, but the problem with some are they’re not proven at the distance. Among others, that means I have to have my doubts about Al Dancer. I could be wrong, but…. I know Clondaw Castle hasn’t tried beyond 20.4f either, but I’ve just got a sneaking feeling that he’ll stay. For the winner though, I have to go with Cap Du Nord who is only 8yo and looks to be just coming into his prime this season. So for me it’s Cap Du Nord from Clondaw Castle with perhaps Al Dancer taking third.