Post by Old Timer on Feb 21, 2021 11:19:37 GMT
Well yesterday was a lot more hopeful than it’s been for some time, even if I couldn’t get them in the right order. However, it might be a case of ‘after the lord Mayor’s show’ today!
Newbury 15.35 Gr 3 Handicap Hurdle 703 (138.6) 16.5f gd/sf – 24 Run (23 at best)
Last year – 872 (137.7) gd – 24 ran
Pic D’Orhy 33/1 5-11-5 (146) by 0.75 l from Ciel De Neige 13/2 F 5-10-8 (135)
Gumball 33/1 6-11-9 (153) was 11 l 12th
Lightly Squeeze 33/1 6-10-7 (137) fell at the last when joined in the lead
Mack The Man 15/2 6-10-3 (130) brought down at the last when still there
Cadzand 6-10-12 (138) (18.2)
‘20/21 record: 2/1/3 Best: 258.4 off 129 carrying 11-1 (Cl 3 HHd 16f sf Kemp)
27/12/20 Cl 3 HHd (97/129.4) 16f sf Kemp 11-1 5/2 F 1/13 3.25 l off 129
held up towards rear, headway going well after 3 out, went 2nd 2 out, led before last, clear flat, readily
Plus: going (W); distance (W); recent form run (56 days); down 3lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 2 classes; up 9lbs (OR);
Verdict: just the 3 starts over hurdles, of which he’s won 2; took Cl 3 at Kempton lto, the runner-up having since won a Cl 2 at Musselburgh; raised 9lbs for that, but is improving so quickly he can probably manage that; however, still some task being asked of him and while he may make the frame he doesn’t offer a lot of value as a winner.
Mister Coffey 6-10-12 (138) (13.3)
’19/20 record: 1/1/2
‘20/21 record: 1/1/2 Best: 263.3 off 138 carrying 11-3 (List HHd 16f hv Sand)
05/12/20 List HHd (225/134.3) 16f hv Sand 11-3 6/4 F 3/10 9 l off 138
held up in rear, improved into mid-division after 3 out, went fourth 2 out, took third over last but no extra
Plus: distance (W); course (W); form run lto; down 5lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); going (?); break (78 days); rise in class;
Verdict: just 4 starts over hurdles, 2 last season and 2 this; won 2 including a Cl 3 HHd at Sandown, but only finished 3rd to Benson and Galice Macalo (-16) in early December; meets GM on 9lbs better terms today; not without a chance if keeping closer order today.
Guard Your Dreams 5-10-9 (135) (13.2)
‘20/21 record: 3/0/4 Best: 260.4 off 128 carrying 10-9 (Cl 2 HHd 16f hv Sand)
02/01/21 Cl 2 HHd (100/132.4) 16f hv Sand 10-9 3/1 1/9 1.75 l off 128
chased leader who soon went clear, closer after 3 out, led before next, ridden and joined run-in, driven to assert final 100 yards
Plus: going (W); distance (W); recent form run (50 days);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up in class; up 7lbs (OR);
Verdict: just the 4 starts over hurdles, of which he’s won 3; won a Cl 2 on his hcap debut at Sandown at the start of the year, beating Friend Or Foe (+13) by 1.75l, the pair pulling well clear of the rest; FOF unlikely to reoppose as he ran in the Kingwell at Wincanton yesterday, finishing a well-beaten 4th; that suggests Nicholls didn’t fancy his chances in this; maybe GYD is biting off more than he can chew too.
Wild Max 6-11-7 (147) (11.3)
‘19/20 record: 2/0/3
‘20/21 record: 2/0/3 Best: 267.6 off 138 carrying 11-4 (Cl 2 HHd 16.5f gd/sf Donc)
12/12/20 Cl 2 HHd (94/129.6) 16.5f gd/sf Donc 11-4 5/2 1/7 9.5 l off 138
midfield, hit 3rd, headway to track leaders approaching 4 out, close up approaching 3 out where left in front, ridden clear approaching last, kept on strongly flat
Plus: going (W); distance (W); form run lto; down 4lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); course (?); break (71 days); up 9lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: just the 6 races over hurdles wining 2/3 both last year and this; hasn’t run since mid-December when taking a Cl 2 Hcap over today’s distance at Doncaster under today’s 7lbs claimer; like many, not run in this class but certainly no 20/1 shot.
As usual you can make some sort of case for almost half the field, with the strongest cases being for the two at the front of the betting. And the market has seen 50% winning favourites in the last decade. However, I think it’s a bit speculative to back Cadzand going up 3 classes, and therefore would take a chance on Mister Coffey in the hopes he keeps closer to the pace today. Of the others, I wouldn’t rule out Galice Macalo, but perhaps Wild Max and Guard Your Dreams could beat it out. So I hope to have named the winner among those five, but I’m going for Mister Coffey, with very, very small e/w bets on Wild Max and Guard Your Dreams.
Newbury 15.35 Gr 3 Handicap Hurdle 703 (138.6) 16.5f gd/sf – 24 Run (23 at best)
Last year – 872 (137.7) gd – 24 ran
Pic D’Orhy 33/1 5-11-5 (146) by 0.75 l from Ciel De Neige 13/2 F 5-10-8 (135)
Gumball 33/1 6-11-9 (153) was 11 l 12th
Lightly Squeeze 33/1 6-10-7 (137) fell at the last when joined in the lead
Mack The Man 15/2 6-10-3 (130) brought down at the last when still there
Cadzand 6-10-12 (138) (18.2)
‘20/21 record: 2/1/3 Best: 258.4 off 129 carrying 11-1 (Cl 3 HHd 16f sf Kemp)
27/12/20 Cl 3 HHd (97/129.4) 16f sf Kemp 11-1 5/2 F 1/13 3.25 l off 129
held up towards rear, headway going well after 3 out, went 2nd 2 out, led before last, clear flat, readily
Plus: going (W); distance (W); recent form run (56 days); down 3lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 2 classes; up 9lbs (OR);
Verdict: just the 3 starts over hurdles, of which he’s won 2; took Cl 3 at Kempton lto, the runner-up having since won a Cl 2 at Musselburgh; raised 9lbs for that, but is improving so quickly he can probably manage that; however, still some task being asked of him and while he may make the frame he doesn’t offer a lot of value as a winner.
Mister Coffey 6-10-12 (138) (13.3)
’19/20 record: 1/1/2
‘20/21 record: 1/1/2 Best: 263.3 off 138 carrying 11-3 (List HHd 16f hv Sand)
05/12/20 List HHd (225/134.3) 16f hv Sand 11-3 6/4 F 3/10 9 l off 138
held up in rear, improved into mid-division after 3 out, went fourth 2 out, took third over last but no extra
Plus: distance (W); course (W); form run lto; down 5lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); going (?); break (78 days); rise in class;
Verdict: just 4 starts over hurdles, 2 last season and 2 this; won 2 including a Cl 3 HHd at Sandown, but only finished 3rd to Benson and Galice Macalo (-16) in early December; meets GM on 9lbs better terms today; not without a chance if keeping closer order today.
Guard Your Dreams 5-10-9 (135) (13.2)
‘20/21 record: 3/0/4 Best: 260.4 off 128 carrying 10-9 (Cl 2 HHd 16f hv Sand)
02/01/21 Cl 2 HHd (100/132.4) 16f hv Sand 10-9 3/1 1/9 1.75 l off 128
chased leader who soon went clear, closer after 3 out, led before next, ridden and joined run-in, driven to assert final 100 yards
Plus: going (W); distance (W); recent form run (50 days);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up in class; up 7lbs (OR);
Verdict: just the 4 starts over hurdles, of which he’s won 3; won a Cl 2 on his hcap debut at Sandown at the start of the year, beating Friend Or Foe (+13) by 1.75l, the pair pulling well clear of the rest; FOF unlikely to reoppose as he ran in the Kingwell at Wincanton yesterday, finishing a well-beaten 4th; that suggests Nicholls didn’t fancy his chances in this; maybe GYD is biting off more than he can chew too.
Wild Max 6-11-7 (147) (11.3)
‘19/20 record: 2/0/3
‘20/21 record: 2/0/3 Best: 267.6 off 138 carrying 11-4 (Cl 2 HHd 16.5f gd/sf Donc)
12/12/20 Cl 2 HHd (94/129.6) 16.5f gd/sf Donc 11-4 5/2 1/7 9.5 l off 138
midfield, hit 3rd, headway to track leaders approaching 4 out, close up approaching 3 out where left in front, ridden clear approaching last, kept on strongly flat
Plus: going (W); distance (W); form run lto; down 4lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); course (?); break (71 days); up 9lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: just the 6 races over hurdles wining 2/3 both last year and this; hasn’t run since mid-December when taking a Cl 2 Hcap over today’s distance at Doncaster under today’s 7lbs claimer; like many, not run in this class but certainly no 20/1 shot.
As usual you can make some sort of case for almost half the field, with the strongest cases being for the two at the front of the betting. And the market has seen 50% winning favourites in the last decade. However, I think it’s a bit speculative to back Cadzand going up 3 classes, and therefore would take a chance on Mister Coffey in the hopes he keeps closer to the pace today. Of the others, I wouldn’t rule out Galice Macalo, but perhaps Wild Max and Guard Your Dreams could beat it out. So I hope to have named the winner among those five, but I’m going for Mister Coffey, with very, very small e/w bets on Wild Max and Guard Your Dreams.