Post by Old Timer on Feb 20, 2021 11:30:05 GMT
Well we were frozen out last week, which is probably just as well the way I’ve been picking them this NH season. Like to say I feel confident today, but there seems to be a might of difference between my logic and that the horses are employing at present. So, who knows?
Ascot 14.25 Listed Handicap Chase 299 (140.3) 24f sf – 12 Run (10 at best)
Last year – 427 (144.8) 24f sf – 8 ran
Ballyoptic 8/1 10-11-10 (157) by 8.5 l from Valtor 6/1 11-11-3 (150)
Regal Encore 15/2 12-10-13 (146) was 10 l 3rd
Jerrysback 9-11-2 (142) (M 6.0)
‘19/20 record: 0/1/2 Best: 288.3 off 143 carrying 10-8 (List HCh 24f hv Asc)
’20/21 record: 0/1/1 Best: 280.9 off 142 carrying 11-0 (Cl 2 HCh 21f sf Asc)
23/01/21 Cl 2 Hch (328/143.9) 21f sf Ascot 11-0 8/1 3/14 5 l off 142
held up in mid-division, mistake 8th, headway 3 out, went 3rd before 2 out, unable to challenge, stayed on
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (F); course (F); recent form run (28 days);
Minus: class up; up 2lbs (wt);
Verdict: very lightly raced the last 2 seasons, but promising effort when 3l 3rd to Regal Encore (-1) over C&D in December ’19 and when 5l 3rd to Dashel Drasher (+10) over 20f here on his return in January; sure to have come on for the outing,
Regal Encore 13-11-10 (150) (M 1.2)
‘19/20 record: 1/2/4 Best: 290.3 off 142 carrying 10-7 (List HCh 24f hv Ascot)
‘20/21 record: 1/1/3 Best: 291.5 off 150 carrying 11-5 (List 24f hv Ascot)
19/12/20 List HCh (342/136.2) 24f hv Ascot 11-5 17/2 3/10 4.75 l off 150
raced out wide chasing leaders, went 2nd before 13th until after 2 out (normal 3 out), kept on same pace in 3rd on extended run-in
Plus: class (W+); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto;
Minus: break 63 days; up 5lbs (wt);
Verdict: finished 10 l 3rd in last year’s renewal off 4lbs lower mark, but after another wind op came back to win the Sodexo Gold Cup off off 145 in October; PU next time out in the Labdroke’s but back over C&D ran 3rd lto; had a decent break and no surprise were he to run well.
Captain Chaos 10-10-9 (135) (7.8)
‘19/20 record: 1/2/6 Best: 272.1 off 123 carrying 10-1 (List HCh 23.5f hv Newc)
‘20/21 record: 0/0/4 Best: 267.5 off 136 carrying 10-2 (Gr 3 HCh 29f sf Warw)
16/01/21 Gr 3 HCh (285/139.5) 29f sf Warw 10-2 7/1 4/13 8.25l off 136
led, not fluent 18th, headed before 2 out, soon beaten, lost 3rd towards finish
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); recent form run (35 days); down in class; down 1lb (OR);
Minus: course (?); up 7lbs (wt);
Verdict: best effort of the season when 4th to Notachance (+3) – a likely N/R – at Warwick lto and has been dropped 1lb; only 1lb above the mark when winning at Doncaster in February last year and handles the direst ground, not out of it
Newtide 8-11-1 (141) (24.3)
‘19/20 record: 2/0/3
‘20/21 record: 0/1/1 Best: 257.0 off 142 carrying 11-12 (Cl 2 HCh 25.5 sf Hayd)
21/11/20 Cl 2 HCh (251/133.5) 25.5f sf Hayd 11-12 7/1 3/12 18.5 l off 142
prominent, headway to chase leader 14th, ridden before 4 out, one pace from 2 out
Plus: class (Wnov); going (W); distance (W); form run lto; down 11 lbs (wt); down 1ln (OR);
Minus: course (?); break 91 days; up in class;
Verdict: only the 4 chase starts and won the first 2 including a Gr 2 Nch at Wetherby; has been a bit ‘distant’ in his 2 hcap starts, but has had a wind op since his last start; first start at Ascot though.
Presuming Notachance will take up his engagement at Haydock, I’m, left with what looks to be a strong favourite in Jerrysback and I’m not as enamoured by the claims of Newtide who will have to show some improvement on his first run back after a wind op; that’s not to say he won’t, but it’s unlikely. Sitting at the foot of the handicap is Captain Chaos and I expect him to perhaps continue to improve on his latest and maybe make the frame. However, this is a race for Ascot horses, and although he’s getting on in years there’s none more so than Regal Encore, whose a past winner and finished 3rd last year. So I’m going for the promising Jerrysback from regal Encore and Captain Chaos.
Haydock 14.40 Gr 2 Handicap Chase 427 (142.1) 28.5f sf – 10 Run
Last year – 570 (146.1) hv – 10 ran
Smooth Stepper 33/.1 11-10-0 (136) by 1.5 l from Lord Du Mesnil 6/1 7-10-8 (147)
The Two Amigos 6/1 8-10-6 (142) was 32.5 l 4th
The Two Amigos 9-11-4 (144) (4.4)
‘19/20 record: 0/1/5
‘20/21 record: 0/3/3 Best: 281.7 off 142 carrying 10-9 (Gr 3 HCh 30.5 sf Chep)
09/02/21 Gr 3 HCh (854/142.7) 30.5 sf Chep 10-9 9/1 2/18 3 l off 142
made most until 3 out, switched right after 2 out, held flat, stayed on
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (F); course (F); recent form run;
Minus: up 9lbs (wt); up 2lbs (OR);
Verdict: proved he really stayed the trip with his running in the Welsh National lto and beginning to look a resolute stayer; only worry is that he hasn’t won for 2 years and has crept up to 10lbs higher than his last winning mark;
Notachance 7-11-6 (146) (9.4)
‘19/20 record:1/2/4
‘20/21 record: 2/0/2 Best 278.7 off 139 carrying 10-5 (Gr 3 HCh 29f sf Warw)
16/01/21 Gr 3 HCh (285/139.5) 29f sf Warw 10-5 7/2 Jt F 1/14 0.5 l off 139
chased leaders, not fluent 14th, went 2nd 3 out, led before 2 out, stayed on well, ridden out
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); recent form run (35 days);
Minus: course (?); up 15lbs (wt); up 7lbs (OR);
Verdict: rapidly improving chaser who has won 3 of his 6 starts over fences including when stepping up in trip at Warwick and beating Achille by 0.5l; strictly on the weight A should reverse that running, but as a 7yo N has enough scope for improvement to win this on his way to the Scottish National, he does have a lot of weight for a 7yo though.
Achille 11-10-12 (138) (6.9)
‘19/20 record 0/1/1 Best: 259.2 off 133 carrying 10-6 (Gr3HCh 27.5 sf Chelt)
‘20/21 record 0/1/1 Best: 273.2 off 134 carrying 10-0 (Gr 3 HCh 29f sf Warw)
16/01/21 Gr 3 HCh (285/139.5) 29f sf Warw 10-0 12/1 23/13 0.5 l off 134
held up towards rear, headway on outside 18th, went 2nd and mistake 2 out, every chance last, 2 lengths down 100 yards out, stayed on towards finish
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); recent form run (35 days);
Minus: course (?); up 12lbs (wt); up 4lbs (OR);
Verdict: won 3 times in the ‘18/19 season but hasn’t seen much action in the last 2; nevertheless out in a fine effort lto at Warwick when he was only beaten 0.5l by Notachance (+5) and meets him on 3lbs better terms today; must be in with a chance.
Of others, Sojourn is not without appeal although with only 4 starts over fences he looks a little under exposed, while last year’s runner-up Lord Du Mesnil hasn’t really found his form yet this season. I’m a little worried with the weight that Notachance has to carry for a 7yo, and feel that it may well be worth taking a chance on Achille. However, for the winner I’m going to go for The Two Amigos to do the Welsh National form proud and take him from Achille and Notachance.
Ascot 14.25 Listed Handicap Chase 299 (140.3) 24f sf – 12 Run (10 at best)
Last year – 427 (144.8) 24f sf – 8 ran
Ballyoptic 8/1 10-11-10 (157) by 8.5 l from Valtor 6/1 11-11-3 (150)
Regal Encore 15/2 12-10-13 (146) was 10 l 3rd
Jerrysback 9-11-2 (142) (M 6.0)
‘19/20 record: 0/1/2 Best: 288.3 off 143 carrying 10-8 (List HCh 24f hv Asc)
’20/21 record: 0/1/1 Best: 280.9 off 142 carrying 11-0 (Cl 2 HCh 21f sf Asc)
23/01/21 Cl 2 Hch (328/143.9) 21f sf Ascot 11-0 8/1 3/14 5 l off 142
held up in mid-division, mistake 8th, headway 3 out, went 3rd before 2 out, unable to challenge, stayed on
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (F); course (F); recent form run (28 days);
Minus: class up; up 2lbs (wt);
Verdict: very lightly raced the last 2 seasons, but promising effort when 3l 3rd to Regal Encore (-1) over C&D in December ’19 and when 5l 3rd to Dashel Drasher (+10) over 20f here on his return in January; sure to have come on for the outing,
Regal Encore 13-11-10 (150) (M 1.2)
‘19/20 record: 1/2/4 Best: 290.3 off 142 carrying 10-7 (List HCh 24f hv Ascot)
‘20/21 record: 1/1/3 Best: 291.5 off 150 carrying 11-5 (List 24f hv Ascot)
19/12/20 List HCh (342/136.2) 24f hv Ascot 11-5 17/2 3/10 4.75 l off 150
raced out wide chasing leaders, went 2nd before 13th until after 2 out (normal 3 out), kept on same pace in 3rd on extended run-in
Plus: class (W+); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto;
Minus: break 63 days; up 5lbs (wt);
Verdict: finished 10 l 3rd in last year’s renewal off 4lbs lower mark, but after another wind op came back to win the Sodexo Gold Cup off off 145 in October; PU next time out in the Labdroke’s but back over C&D ran 3rd lto; had a decent break and no surprise were he to run well.
Captain Chaos 10-10-9 (135) (7.8)
‘19/20 record: 1/2/6 Best: 272.1 off 123 carrying 10-1 (List HCh 23.5f hv Newc)
‘20/21 record: 0/0/4 Best: 267.5 off 136 carrying 10-2 (Gr 3 HCh 29f sf Warw)
16/01/21 Gr 3 HCh (285/139.5) 29f sf Warw 10-2 7/1 4/13 8.25l off 136
led, not fluent 18th, headed before 2 out, soon beaten, lost 3rd towards finish
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); recent form run (35 days); down in class; down 1lb (OR);
Minus: course (?); up 7lbs (wt);
Verdict: best effort of the season when 4th to Notachance (+3) – a likely N/R – at Warwick lto and has been dropped 1lb; only 1lb above the mark when winning at Doncaster in February last year and handles the direst ground, not out of it
Newtide 8-11-1 (141) (24.3)
‘19/20 record: 2/0/3
‘20/21 record: 0/1/1 Best: 257.0 off 142 carrying 11-12 (Cl 2 HCh 25.5 sf Hayd)
21/11/20 Cl 2 HCh (251/133.5) 25.5f sf Hayd 11-12 7/1 3/12 18.5 l off 142
prominent, headway to chase leader 14th, ridden before 4 out, one pace from 2 out
Plus: class (Wnov); going (W); distance (W); form run lto; down 11 lbs (wt); down 1ln (OR);
Minus: course (?); break 91 days; up in class;
Verdict: only the 4 chase starts and won the first 2 including a Gr 2 Nch at Wetherby; has been a bit ‘distant’ in his 2 hcap starts, but has had a wind op since his last start; first start at Ascot though.
Presuming Notachance will take up his engagement at Haydock, I’m, left with what looks to be a strong favourite in Jerrysback and I’m not as enamoured by the claims of Newtide who will have to show some improvement on his first run back after a wind op; that’s not to say he won’t, but it’s unlikely. Sitting at the foot of the handicap is Captain Chaos and I expect him to perhaps continue to improve on his latest and maybe make the frame. However, this is a race for Ascot horses, and although he’s getting on in years there’s none more so than Regal Encore, whose a past winner and finished 3rd last year. So I’m going for the promising Jerrysback from regal Encore and Captain Chaos.
Haydock 14.40 Gr 2 Handicap Chase 427 (142.1) 28.5f sf – 10 Run
Last year – 570 (146.1) hv – 10 ran
Smooth Stepper 33/.1 11-10-0 (136) by 1.5 l from Lord Du Mesnil 6/1 7-10-8 (147)
The Two Amigos 6/1 8-10-6 (142) was 32.5 l 4th
The Two Amigos 9-11-4 (144) (4.4)
‘19/20 record: 0/1/5
‘20/21 record: 0/3/3 Best: 281.7 off 142 carrying 10-9 (Gr 3 HCh 30.5 sf Chep)
09/02/21 Gr 3 HCh (854/142.7) 30.5 sf Chep 10-9 9/1 2/18 3 l off 142
made most until 3 out, switched right after 2 out, held flat, stayed on
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (F); course (F); recent form run;
Minus: up 9lbs (wt); up 2lbs (OR);
Verdict: proved he really stayed the trip with his running in the Welsh National lto and beginning to look a resolute stayer; only worry is that he hasn’t won for 2 years and has crept up to 10lbs higher than his last winning mark;
Notachance 7-11-6 (146) (9.4)
‘19/20 record:1/2/4
‘20/21 record: 2/0/2 Best 278.7 off 139 carrying 10-5 (Gr 3 HCh 29f sf Warw)
16/01/21 Gr 3 HCh (285/139.5) 29f sf Warw 10-5 7/2 Jt F 1/14 0.5 l off 139
chased leaders, not fluent 14th, went 2nd 3 out, led before 2 out, stayed on well, ridden out
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); recent form run (35 days);
Minus: course (?); up 15lbs (wt); up 7lbs (OR);
Verdict: rapidly improving chaser who has won 3 of his 6 starts over fences including when stepping up in trip at Warwick and beating Achille by 0.5l; strictly on the weight A should reverse that running, but as a 7yo N has enough scope for improvement to win this on his way to the Scottish National, he does have a lot of weight for a 7yo though.
Achille 11-10-12 (138) (6.9)
‘19/20 record 0/1/1 Best: 259.2 off 133 carrying 10-6 (Gr3HCh 27.5 sf Chelt)
‘20/21 record 0/1/1 Best: 273.2 off 134 carrying 10-0 (Gr 3 HCh 29f sf Warw)
16/01/21 Gr 3 HCh (285/139.5) 29f sf Warw 10-0 12/1 23/13 0.5 l off 134
held up towards rear, headway on outside 18th, went 2nd and mistake 2 out, every chance last, 2 lengths down 100 yards out, stayed on towards finish
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); recent form run (35 days);
Minus: course (?); up 12lbs (wt); up 4lbs (OR);
Verdict: won 3 times in the ‘18/19 season but hasn’t seen much action in the last 2; nevertheless out in a fine effort lto at Warwick when he was only beaten 0.5l by Notachance (+5) and meets him on 3lbs better terms today; must be in with a chance.
Of others, Sojourn is not without appeal although with only 4 starts over fences he looks a little under exposed, while last year’s runner-up Lord Du Mesnil hasn’t really found his form yet this season. I’m a little worried with the weight that Notachance has to carry for a 7yo, and feel that it may well be worth taking a chance on Achille. However, for the winner I’m going to go for The Two Amigos to do the Welsh National form proud and take him from Achille and Notachance.