Post by Old Timer on Feb 6, 2021 10:44:52 GMT
Very rare for the best meeting on a Saturday to be at Musselburgh, but we’ve got a decent long-distance chase and a minimum-distance hurdle. Hard pressed to find any selections at double digit prices, but after a miserable January we need some winners!
Musselburgh 14.05 Cl 2 Handicap Hurdle 156 (133.3) 15.5f sf – 10 Run
Last year – 219 (126.1) gd/sf – 9 ran
Sebastapol 9/2 6-11-9 (136) by 0.5 l from Ashington 15/8 F 5-10-8 (121)
Christopher Wood 6-11-8 (143) (3.3)
‘19/20 record: 1/0/4 Best: 259.3 off 125 carrying 11-12 (Cl 3 HHd 15.5f sf Muss)
‘20/21 record: 0/1/3 Best: 273.0 off 143 carrying 11-9 (Cl 2 HHd 19.5f sf Bang)
27/12/20 Cl 3 HHd (97/129.4) 16f sf Kemp 11-11 11/1 2/13 3.25 l off 141
mid-division, not fluent 1st, closed on outside 4th, led before 2 out, headed approaching last, no impression on winner flat
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (41 days); down 3lbs (wt);
Minus: class; up in class; up 2lbs (OR);
Verdict: won Cl 3 HHd over C&D in February, but hasn’t added to his tally this term; dropped back to 16f last time after not quite getting home over further at Bangor and Newbury, but could only finish end to Cadzand (-12) with Torigni (-9) 1.5l back in 3rd; with his rider’s claim he’s 6lbs better off with T – rider is 5/9 on hurdlers and 6/17 riding for Nicholls.
Blakeney Point 8-10-7 (127) (4.3)
‘20/21 record: 2/1/5 Best: 256 off 125 carrying 10-6 (Cl 2 HHd 15.5f sf Muss)
01/01/21 Cl 2 HHd (156/131.0) 15.5f sf Muss 10-6 22/1 1/7 0.25 l off 125
held up behind leaders, ridden after 2 out, led last, idled and driven flat, held on
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (36 days);
Minus: up 1lb (wt); up 2lbs (OR);
Verdict: seemed to benefit from second wind operation and won New Year’s Day handicap by 0.25l from Voix Du Reve (+20), though idled when hit the front; meets VDR on 1lb worse terms and seeing as how he idled when he hit the front, would seem likely to confirm that running.
Ashington 8-10-4 (124) (16.5)
0/1/4 Best: 240.8 off 126 carrying 11-3 (Cl 3 HHd 16.5 gd/sf Donc)
28/11/20 Cl 3 HHd (59/121.3) 16.5f gd/sf Donc 11-3 5/4 F 5/10 6.5 l off 126
towards rear, ridden approaching 3 out where hampered slightly by loose horse, no extra
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto; down 13lbs (wt); down 2lbs (OR);
Minus: 70-day break; up in class;
Verdict: was 2nd in last year’s renewal off 3lbs and fit from Flat made a promising return in October; disappointed when favourite at Doncaster in November and moved stable thereafter, makes debut for new yard today; has a chance based on last year’s form.
I think that Voix Du Reve is unlikely to turn the tables with Blakeney Point, and similarly, Torigini with Christopher Wood. The interesting one is Ashington, runner-up last year but absent since late November and now with a new stable who has won this race before. Seeing as how they are both 6yos, I’m going for Ashington from Christopher Wood, with Blakeney Point in third.
Musselburgh 15.45 Cl 2 Handicap Chase 199 (128.8) 33f sf – 12 Ran\
Last year – 282 (131.5) gf/sf – 10 ran
Bob Mahler 9/2 Jt F 8-11-7 (135) by 0.05 l from Chic Name 5/1 8-11-0 (128)
Little Bruce 9/2 Jt F 8-11-10 (138) was 19.55 l 4th
Le Breuil 9-11-12 (140) (M4.9)
‘19/20 record: 0/0/4
’20/21 record: 0/2/3 Best: 273.7 off 140 carrying 10-6 (Gr 3 HCh 29f sf Warw)
16/01/21 Gr 3 HCh (285/139.5) 29f sf Warw 10-6 7/2 Jt F 3/13 6 l off 140
tracked leaders, jumped left 8th, outpaced 4 out, rallied after 2 out, stayed on flat, went 3rd towards finish
Plus: class (F+); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (21 days); down in class;
Minus: course (?); up 20lbs (wt);
Verdict: third-year chaser who won Gr 2 NvCh over 31.5f at Chelt in March 1919; disappointed in 4 starts last season, but has bounced back to be placed on last 2 starts, the latest a Gr 3 HCh at Warwick coming back from a wind operation; drops some way in class here and is proven at both distance and going, plus he’s now running off the lowest chase mark of his career.
The Ferry Master 8-11-6 (134) (8.8)
‘20/21 record: 2/1/3 Best: 254.0 off 128 carrying 11-5 (Cl3 NHCh 23.5f gd Nwcs)
28/11/20 Cl 3 NHCh (70/126.0) 23.5f gd Nwcs 11-5 6/1 1/6 1.25 l off 128
tracked leader, led 4 out, ridden and ran on
Plus: going (F); form run lto (70 days);
Minus: class (?); distance (?); course (?); up 1lb (wt); up 6lbs (OR); up in class; up in distance;
Verdict: has taken well to fences coming on the back of wind surgery, but questions to be answered in regard to class, distance and course, which means he’s a mite short in the betting with so many imponderables; can’t rule him out, but wouldn’t be my first choice.
Dino Boy 8-10-8 (122) (13.3)
‘19/20 record: 1/2/3
’20/21 record: 1/0/2 Best: 237.5 off 114 carrying 10-0 (Cl 3 HCh 32.5f sf Kelso)
06/12/20 Cl 3 HCh (251/123.5) 32.5f sf Kelso 10-0 11/1 1/11 15 l off 114
tracked leader, headway to press leader before 4 out, not fluent 4 out, travelling easily when disputed lead 3 out and 2 out, pushed along approaching the last, every chance when left in front last, kept up to his work close home
Plus: going (W); distance (W); form run lto (62 days);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up in class; up 8lbs (wt); up 8lbs (OR);
Verdict: transfer from Twiston-Davies yard between seasons; only 5 chase starts and may be better going LH, as btn fav at Wincanton last year and PU at Carlisle on debut for Jardine; nevertheless, showed he stayed the trip when taking the Borders National by 15l from Classic Escape (+8) from 4lbs out of the hcap at Kelso; raised 8bs for that and meets CE on level terms, but main worry is how he takes to the RH course.
There are others who could possibly be considered, including last year’s winner Bob Mahler and the 4th, Little Bruce. Current form would hardly give them a chance, BM with 3 PU is off a 2lbs higher mark, while LB finished L/14 in a 16.5f Bumper at Newcastle a fortnight or so ago, hardly the ideal prep. Saint Xavier is also in the betting, but again his form barely warrants it, especially as he weakened over 24f at Kempton lto, and he’s got an extra mile to cope with today.
The one that stands out with the best chance is Le Breuil and he can fulfill his promise, plus go up the extra pounds he needs to run in the Grand National come April. There seems to be some confidence behind The Ferry Master, and it’s not out of the question, just unlikely from my point of view. However, it may mean a better price for Le Breuil, and I’ll welcome that! I am prepared to take a chance on Dino Boy acting on a RH track, and see him as the one to give the favourite the most trouble. So I’m going Le Breuil from Dino Boy and possibly The Ferry Master in third.
Musselburgh 14.05 Cl 2 Handicap Hurdle 156 (133.3) 15.5f sf – 10 Run
Last year – 219 (126.1) gd/sf – 9 ran
Sebastapol 9/2 6-11-9 (136) by 0.5 l from Ashington 15/8 F 5-10-8 (121)
Christopher Wood 6-11-8 (143) (3.3)
‘19/20 record: 1/0/4 Best: 259.3 off 125 carrying 11-12 (Cl 3 HHd 15.5f sf Muss)
‘20/21 record: 0/1/3 Best: 273.0 off 143 carrying 11-9 (Cl 2 HHd 19.5f sf Bang)
27/12/20 Cl 3 HHd (97/129.4) 16f sf Kemp 11-11 11/1 2/13 3.25 l off 141
mid-division, not fluent 1st, closed on outside 4th, led before 2 out, headed approaching last, no impression on winner flat
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (41 days); down 3lbs (wt);
Minus: class; up in class; up 2lbs (OR);
Verdict: won Cl 3 HHd over C&D in February, but hasn’t added to his tally this term; dropped back to 16f last time after not quite getting home over further at Bangor and Newbury, but could only finish end to Cadzand (-12) with Torigni (-9) 1.5l back in 3rd; with his rider’s claim he’s 6lbs better off with T – rider is 5/9 on hurdlers and 6/17 riding for Nicholls.
Blakeney Point 8-10-7 (127) (4.3)
‘20/21 record: 2/1/5 Best: 256 off 125 carrying 10-6 (Cl 2 HHd 15.5f sf Muss)
01/01/21 Cl 2 HHd (156/131.0) 15.5f sf Muss 10-6 22/1 1/7 0.25 l off 125
held up behind leaders, ridden after 2 out, led last, idled and driven flat, held on
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (36 days);
Minus: up 1lb (wt); up 2lbs (OR);
Verdict: seemed to benefit from second wind operation and won New Year’s Day handicap by 0.25l from Voix Du Reve (+20), though idled when hit the front; meets VDR on 1lb worse terms and seeing as how he idled when he hit the front, would seem likely to confirm that running.
Ashington 8-10-4 (124) (16.5)
0/1/4 Best: 240.8 off 126 carrying 11-3 (Cl 3 HHd 16.5 gd/sf Donc)
28/11/20 Cl 3 HHd (59/121.3) 16.5f gd/sf Donc 11-3 5/4 F 5/10 6.5 l off 126
towards rear, ridden approaching 3 out where hampered slightly by loose horse, no extra
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto; down 13lbs (wt); down 2lbs (OR);
Minus: 70-day break; up in class;
Verdict: was 2nd in last year’s renewal off 3lbs and fit from Flat made a promising return in October; disappointed when favourite at Doncaster in November and moved stable thereafter, makes debut for new yard today; has a chance based on last year’s form.
I think that Voix Du Reve is unlikely to turn the tables with Blakeney Point, and similarly, Torigini with Christopher Wood. The interesting one is Ashington, runner-up last year but absent since late November and now with a new stable who has won this race before. Seeing as how they are both 6yos, I’m going for Ashington from Christopher Wood, with Blakeney Point in third.
Musselburgh 15.45 Cl 2 Handicap Chase 199 (128.8) 33f sf – 12 Ran\
Last year – 282 (131.5) gf/sf – 10 ran
Bob Mahler 9/2 Jt F 8-11-7 (135) by 0.05 l from Chic Name 5/1 8-11-0 (128)
Little Bruce 9/2 Jt F 8-11-10 (138) was 19.55 l 4th
Le Breuil 9-11-12 (140) (M4.9)
‘19/20 record: 0/0/4
’20/21 record: 0/2/3 Best: 273.7 off 140 carrying 10-6 (Gr 3 HCh 29f sf Warw)
16/01/21 Gr 3 HCh (285/139.5) 29f sf Warw 10-6 7/2 Jt F 3/13 6 l off 140
tracked leaders, jumped left 8th, outpaced 4 out, rallied after 2 out, stayed on flat, went 3rd towards finish
Plus: class (F+); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (21 days); down in class;
Minus: course (?); up 20lbs (wt);
Verdict: third-year chaser who won Gr 2 NvCh over 31.5f at Chelt in March 1919; disappointed in 4 starts last season, but has bounced back to be placed on last 2 starts, the latest a Gr 3 HCh at Warwick coming back from a wind operation; drops some way in class here and is proven at both distance and going, plus he’s now running off the lowest chase mark of his career.
The Ferry Master 8-11-6 (134) (8.8)
‘20/21 record: 2/1/3 Best: 254.0 off 128 carrying 11-5 (Cl3 NHCh 23.5f gd Nwcs)
28/11/20 Cl 3 NHCh (70/126.0) 23.5f gd Nwcs 11-5 6/1 1/6 1.25 l off 128
tracked leader, led 4 out, ridden and ran on
Plus: going (F); form run lto (70 days);
Minus: class (?); distance (?); course (?); up 1lb (wt); up 6lbs (OR); up in class; up in distance;
Verdict: has taken well to fences coming on the back of wind surgery, but questions to be answered in regard to class, distance and course, which means he’s a mite short in the betting with so many imponderables; can’t rule him out, but wouldn’t be my first choice.
Dino Boy 8-10-8 (122) (13.3)
‘19/20 record: 1/2/3
’20/21 record: 1/0/2 Best: 237.5 off 114 carrying 10-0 (Cl 3 HCh 32.5f sf Kelso)
06/12/20 Cl 3 HCh (251/123.5) 32.5f sf Kelso 10-0 11/1 1/11 15 l off 114
tracked leader, headway to press leader before 4 out, not fluent 4 out, travelling easily when disputed lead 3 out and 2 out, pushed along approaching the last, every chance when left in front last, kept up to his work close home
Plus: going (W); distance (W); form run lto (62 days);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up in class; up 8lbs (wt); up 8lbs (OR);
Verdict: transfer from Twiston-Davies yard between seasons; only 5 chase starts and may be better going LH, as btn fav at Wincanton last year and PU at Carlisle on debut for Jardine; nevertheless, showed he stayed the trip when taking the Borders National by 15l from Classic Escape (+8) from 4lbs out of the hcap at Kelso; raised 8bs for that and meets CE on level terms, but main worry is how he takes to the RH course.
There are others who could possibly be considered, including last year’s winner Bob Mahler and the 4th, Little Bruce. Current form would hardly give them a chance, BM with 3 PU is off a 2lbs higher mark, while LB finished L/14 in a 16.5f Bumper at Newcastle a fortnight or so ago, hardly the ideal prep. Saint Xavier is also in the betting, but again his form barely warrants it, especially as he weakened over 24f at Kempton lto, and he’s got an extra mile to cope with today.
The one that stands out with the best chance is Le Breuil and he can fulfill his promise, plus go up the extra pounds he needs to run in the Grand National come April. There seems to be some confidence behind The Ferry Master, and it’s not out of the question, just unlikely from my point of view. However, it may mean a better price for Le Breuil, and I’ll welcome that! I am prepared to take a chance on Dino Boy acting on a RH track, and see him as the one to give the favourite the most trouble. So I’m going Le Breuil from Dino Boy and possibly The Ferry Master in third.