Post by Old Timer on Jan 30, 2021 11:08:48 GMT
Well we’re down to a solitary race this week, and for the fourth week in a row I was going to say there’s a raging favourite. But there’s not, as Musical Slave has just about usurped him. Fear not, I’m not going for him either – well not as first choice. I’ll get it right some day!
Doncaster 15.15 Listed Handicap Chase 627 (144.3) 24f sf – 13 Run
Last year – 570 (138.4) gd/sf – 14 ran
OK Corral 9/1 10-11-12 (146) by 0.5 l from Fingerontheswitch 10/1 10-10-5 (132)
Canelo 8-11-4 (148) (8.2)
‘19/20 record 1/1/4
‘20/21 record 2/1/4 Best: 284.1 off 142 carrying 11-6 (Gr 3 HCh 24f sf Weth)
26/12/20 Gr 3 HCh (171/142.1) 24f sf Weth 11-6 9/2 1/8 0.75 l off 142
close up, left 3rd 4 out, joined leader 2 out, ridden to lead towards finish
18/11/20 Cl 2 HCh (188/134.7) 22.5f gd Newb 11-9 7/1 2/16 4.25 l off 138
held up towards rear of mid-division on inside, headway 12th, kept on run-in, went 2nd near finish, no chance with winner
Plus: class (W+); going (W); distance (W); down 2lbs (wt); down in class;
Minus: course (?); up 6lbs (OR);
Verdict: continues to improve this season, latest taking the Rowland Meyrick on Boxing Day, and previously had been 4.25l 2nd to Cap Du Nord (-18) over 22.5 f at Newbury on gd ground; meets CDN on 6lbs better terms over further and on sf ground; not without a chance despite being raised 6lbs for his latest success.
Musical Slave 8-10-7 (137) (6.4)
‘19/20 record 1/1/5
‘20/21 record 0/0/1 Best: 274.9 off 137 carrying 10-8 (Cl 2 HCh 20f gd Newb)
27/11/20 Cl 2 HCh (188/141.4) 29f gd Newb 10-8 12/1 5.10 3.5 l off 137
held up, bad mistake 1st, hit 3rd, made headway approaching 4 out, hit last, kept on one pace flat
14/03/20 Cl 2 NHCh (250/132.3) 24f hv Uttox 11-4 8/1 2/10 1.25 l off 133
held up mid-division, headway 12th, ridden and went 2nd before last, stayed on under pressure flat, not reach winner
Plus: going (W); distance (F); last run (64 days); down 1lb (wt);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up in class;
Verdict: can’t take much from his return run at Newbury in November, other than it was some time ago; that worries me; otherwise, based on his run at Uttoxeter in March neither ground nor distance should bother him; I see the markets coming for him, but that break worries me as does only a single run this year.
Aye Right 8-11-7 (151) (5.7)
‘19/20 record 1/1/4
‘20/21 record 0/3/4 Best: 289.6 off 150 carrying 11-0 (Gr 3 HCh 26f gd Newb)
20/01/21 Cl 4 NHF (47/) 16f AW Nwcs 11-4 9/4 F 6/13 6.8 l
tracked leader, close up back straight, led travelling strongly entering home straight, ridden over 1f out, headed entering final furlong, faded close home
28/11/20 Gr 3 HCh (1129/149.6) 26f gd Newb 11-0 12/1 2/18 10 l off 150
chased leader, led 3rd until 5th, lost 2nd at 8th, 2nd again 11th, ridden before 2 out, stayed on same pace, no chance with winner
Plus: class (F); going (W); going (W); last run (10 days); down in class;
Minus: course; up 7lbs (wt); up 1lb (OR);
Verdict: just 6 starts over fences, winning a 23.5f NCh at Newcastle having UR here on his debut; finished midfield in the RSA at Cheltenham to round out the season; finished 2nd at Kelso over an inadequate 17f, and then finished 3rd in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby; put in best performance to date when 2nd (albeit btn 10l) to Cloth Cap in the Ladbrokes; had a spin in a NH bumper at Newcastle 10 days ago and should come into this fit and just 1lb above his Newbury mark.
Cap Du Nord 8-10-9 (139) (14.7)
19/20 record 1/2/6
‘20/21 record 1/1/3 Best: 268.6 off 133 carrying 11-0 (Cl 2 HCh 24f sf Kemp)
27/12/20 Cl 2 HCh (250/138.8) 24f sf Kemp 11-0 6/1 2/11 3.25 l off 133
mid-division, not fluent 1st, headway before 12th, challenged 3 out, led next, headed before last, no chance with winner, stayed on
18/11/20 Cl 2 HCh (188/134.7) 22.5f gd Newb 10-5 7/1 1/16 1.25 l off 123
held up and behind, smooth headway approaching 4 out, chased leaders went 2nd and awkward 3 out, led 2 out, soon clear, stayed on well
Plus: going (F); distance (F); form run lto (34 days); down 5lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 6lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: third-year chaser who seemingly has made remarkable this season beating Canelo easily at Newbury and then runner-up to last week’s easy winner Royale Pagaqille (+10); on the face of it he’s a worthy favourite, but he does have a couple of drawbacks; he’s not won over 24f, his latest effort proving the best of his three attempts; nor has he won on worse ground than gd/sf, his last effort being only his 2nd attempt of 7 starts on sf or hv ground, and finally, his trainer is going through a bit of a cold spell, winless so far this year; the odds don’t look so tempting now, although he should win.
According to the market the glamour of Cap Du Nord seems to be fading on support for Musical Slave. However, I can’t gladly support a horse having just a single start this season, and that back in November. That’s one of the reasons Give Me A Copper is not on my shortlist, a single race this year, although he’ll likely do best of those coming from the race (Rocky’s Treasure and Boldmere). Nor does One For The Team with only novice chase experience. Aye Right may have a bit too much weight, so the one with least questions to me is Canelo and I take him to just edge out Cap Du Nord with Musical Slave taking third ahead of Aye Right.
Doncaster 15.15 Listed Handicap Chase 627 (144.3) 24f sf – 13 Run
Last year – 570 (138.4) gd/sf – 14 ran
OK Corral 9/1 10-11-12 (146) by 0.5 l from Fingerontheswitch 10/1 10-10-5 (132)
Canelo 8-11-4 (148) (8.2)
‘19/20 record 1/1/4
‘20/21 record 2/1/4 Best: 284.1 off 142 carrying 11-6 (Gr 3 HCh 24f sf Weth)
26/12/20 Gr 3 HCh (171/142.1) 24f sf Weth 11-6 9/2 1/8 0.75 l off 142
close up, left 3rd 4 out, joined leader 2 out, ridden to lead towards finish
18/11/20 Cl 2 HCh (188/134.7) 22.5f gd Newb 11-9 7/1 2/16 4.25 l off 138
held up towards rear of mid-division on inside, headway 12th, kept on run-in, went 2nd near finish, no chance with winner
Plus: class (W+); going (W); distance (W); down 2lbs (wt); down in class;
Minus: course (?); up 6lbs (OR);
Verdict: continues to improve this season, latest taking the Rowland Meyrick on Boxing Day, and previously had been 4.25l 2nd to Cap Du Nord (-18) over 22.5 f at Newbury on gd ground; meets CDN on 6lbs better terms over further and on sf ground; not without a chance despite being raised 6lbs for his latest success.
Musical Slave 8-10-7 (137) (6.4)
‘19/20 record 1/1/5
‘20/21 record 0/0/1 Best: 274.9 off 137 carrying 10-8 (Cl 2 HCh 20f gd Newb)
27/11/20 Cl 2 HCh (188/141.4) 29f gd Newb 10-8 12/1 5.10 3.5 l off 137
held up, bad mistake 1st, hit 3rd, made headway approaching 4 out, hit last, kept on one pace flat
14/03/20 Cl 2 NHCh (250/132.3) 24f hv Uttox 11-4 8/1 2/10 1.25 l off 133
held up mid-division, headway 12th, ridden and went 2nd before last, stayed on under pressure flat, not reach winner
Plus: going (W); distance (F); last run (64 days); down 1lb (wt);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up in class;
Verdict: can’t take much from his return run at Newbury in November, other than it was some time ago; that worries me; otherwise, based on his run at Uttoxeter in March neither ground nor distance should bother him; I see the markets coming for him, but that break worries me as does only a single run this year.
Aye Right 8-11-7 (151) (5.7)
‘19/20 record 1/1/4
‘20/21 record 0/3/4 Best: 289.6 off 150 carrying 11-0 (Gr 3 HCh 26f gd Newb)
20/01/21 Cl 4 NHF (47/) 16f AW Nwcs 11-4 9/4 F 6/13 6.8 l
tracked leader, close up back straight, led travelling strongly entering home straight, ridden over 1f out, headed entering final furlong, faded close home
28/11/20 Gr 3 HCh (1129/149.6) 26f gd Newb 11-0 12/1 2/18 10 l off 150
chased leader, led 3rd until 5th, lost 2nd at 8th, 2nd again 11th, ridden before 2 out, stayed on same pace, no chance with winner
Plus: class (F); going (W); going (W); last run (10 days); down in class;
Minus: course; up 7lbs (wt); up 1lb (OR);
Verdict: just 6 starts over fences, winning a 23.5f NCh at Newcastle having UR here on his debut; finished midfield in the RSA at Cheltenham to round out the season; finished 2nd at Kelso over an inadequate 17f, and then finished 3rd in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby; put in best performance to date when 2nd (albeit btn 10l) to Cloth Cap in the Ladbrokes; had a spin in a NH bumper at Newcastle 10 days ago and should come into this fit and just 1lb above his Newbury mark.
Cap Du Nord 8-10-9 (139) (14.7)
19/20 record 1/2/6
‘20/21 record 1/1/3 Best: 268.6 off 133 carrying 11-0 (Cl 2 HCh 24f sf Kemp)
27/12/20 Cl 2 HCh (250/138.8) 24f sf Kemp 11-0 6/1 2/11 3.25 l off 133
mid-division, not fluent 1st, headway before 12th, challenged 3 out, led next, headed before last, no chance with winner, stayed on
18/11/20 Cl 2 HCh (188/134.7) 22.5f gd Newb 10-5 7/1 1/16 1.25 l off 123
held up and behind, smooth headway approaching 4 out, chased leaders went 2nd and awkward 3 out, led 2 out, soon clear, stayed on well
Plus: going (F); distance (F); form run lto (34 days); down 5lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 6lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: third-year chaser who seemingly has made remarkable this season beating Canelo easily at Newbury and then runner-up to last week’s easy winner Royale Pagaqille (+10); on the face of it he’s a worthy favourite, but he does have a couple of drawbacks; he’s not won over 24f, his latest effort proving the best of his three attempts; nor has he won on worse ground than gd/sf, his last effort being only his 2nd attempt of 7 starts on sf or hv ground, and finally, his trainer is going through a bit of a cold spell, winless so far this year; the odds don’t look so tempting now, although he should win.
According to the market the glamour of Cap Du Nord seems to be fading on support for Musical Slave. However, I can’t gladly support a horse having just a single start this season, and that back in November. That’s one of the reasons Give Me A Copper is not on my shortlist, a single race this year, although he’ll likely do best of those coming from the race (Rocky’s Treasure and Boldmere). Nor does One For The Team with only novice chase experience. Aye Right may have a bit too much weight, so the one with least questions to me is Canelo and I take him to just edge out Cap Du Nord with Musical Slave taking third ahead of Aye Right.