Post by Old Timer on Jan 23, 2021 11:42:55 GMT
Finally got my winner, but again the apparent ‘good thing’ proved to be so. The devil you do the devil you don’t but we have the same scenario today. Will I be third time lucky today!
Haydock 14.40 Gr 2 Handicap Chase 269 (141.2) 25.5f hv – 10 Run (8 at best)
Last year – 427 (141.9) hv – 10 ran
Vintage Clouds 7/1 10-10-11 (143) by 7l from Definitly Red 9/1 11-11-10 (156)
Claud And Goldie 25/1 11-10-4 (136) was 13.1 l 4th
Sam’s Adventure 9-10-7 (139) (13.5)
‘19/20 record 1/2/5 Best: 261.3 off 129 carrying 11-0 (Cl 2 NHCh 23f hv Uttox)
‘20/21 record 1/0/3 Best: 266.7 off 144 carrying 11-4 (Cl 2 HCh 25.5f hv Hayd)
19/12/20 Cl 2 HCh (250/133.7) 25.5 hv Hayd 11-4 14/1 1/10 off 133
midfield, reminder after 1st, took closer order 11th, close up travelling strongly 4 out, ridden before 2 out, led before last, stayed on strongly flat
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (35 days); down 11lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); up 6lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: obviously improving chaser winning the Tommy Whittle over C&D on his 8th chase start; raised 6lbs for that, which is fair and likely to continue improving now that he has hit form; lots of positives and a contender.
Potters Legend 11-10-4 (136) – 2lbs ooh (M 0.2)
‘19/20 record 0/1/5 Best: 267.4 off 132 carrying 10-5 (Gr 3 HCh 27.5f sf Chelt)
‘20/21 record 1/1/3 Best: 277.4 off 135 carrying 10-1 (Gr 3 HCh 27f sf Chelt)
‘02/01/21 Cl 2 Hcap (433/137.9) 24f sf Sand 10-4 5/1 F 5/15 9.75 l off 135
towards rear, closer in mid-division when badly hampered on inside bend before 3 out, chased leaders before 2 out, ridden and weakened before last
Plus: class (W); going (Fh); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: up in class; 2lbs out of handicap;
Verdict: still capable at this level as he showed when winning at Warwick in November and would probably done a little bit better at Sandown lto but for being badly hampered in running; however, not sure he really appreciates hv ground, although sound enough on sf and is a C&D winner.
Crievehill 9-10-13 (145) (3.1)
‘19/20 record 2/0/4 Best: 283.1 off 145 carrying 11-12 (Cl 2 HCh 25.5 gd/sf Hayd)
‘20/21 record 0/0/3 Best: 285.0 off 152 carrying 11-7 (Gr 2 HCh 20f sf Aint)
27/12/20 Cl 2 HCh (250/138.8) 24f sf Kemp 11-9 20/1 5/11 36 l off 147
prominent when not fluent 1st, chased leaders, lost place before 3rd, mistake 10th, well beaten from 4 out
Plus: class (W); going (Wh); distance (W); course (W); last time out (27 days); down 10lbs (wt); down 2lbs (OR);
Minus: up in class;
Verdict: won over C&D in November but has not figured since; lto finished well beaten Royale Pagaille (-2) at Kempton, not helped by jumping errors; meets him on 13lbs better terms; although he has won chase on sf, might actually be better suited by gd/sf and is only 1//2/9 on sf or hv ground; however, back to last winning mark and in as race where surprised abound noy entirely eliminated.
Smooth Stepper 12-10-8 (140)
‘19/20 record 1/1/3 Best: 282.1 off 136 carrying 10-0 (Gr 3 HCh 28.5f hv Hayd)
’20/21 record 0/0/2 Best: 272.0 off 144 carrying 11-8 (Cl 2 HCh 24f gd Sand)
06/12/20 Gr 3 HCh (674/146.3) 26f sf Aint 10-9 25/1 5/14 51.75 l off 142
mid-division, lost place 11th, towards rear when jumped slowly 14th (Canal Turn) rallied into modest 5th 2 out
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); last time out (49 days); down 1lb (wt); down 2lbs (OR);
Minus:
Verdict: looked good when winning the Nation Trial here in February but is still above that mark and not likely to improve as a 12yo; however, if this turns into a real slog could run into the frame.
I’m leaving out both Royale Pagaille because he has yet to prove that he can stay this far, plus the fact he’s off 16lbs higher than for his impressive Kempton run. That sees him toting 11-10, a high weight for any horse, let alone a 7yo who don’t do that well here. He may well win, but at 6/4 I think it’s a ridiculous price to take in a race on the Haydock quagmire.
I’m going for Sam’s Adventure who looks to have most in his favour. He should have enough to beat Potters Legend who I fancy to edge out Smooth Stepper and Crievehill neither of who have hit form yet this season
Ascot 15.00 Cl 2 Handicap Chase 328 (143.9) 21f sf – 14 Run
Last year – 469 (139.1) hv – 8 ran
Domaine De L’Isle 5/1 7-10-13 (140) by 0.25 l from Bennys King 14/1 9-11-4 (145)
Windsor Avenue 9-11-5 (147) (6.0)
’19/20 record 2/0/4
20/21 record 0/2/3 Best: 284.9 off 147 carrying 11-11 (Gr 3 HCh 24f sf Weth)
26/12/20 Gr 3 HCh (171/142.1) 24f sf Weth 11-11 5/1 3/8 4.25 l off 147
in touch, headway when left 3rd 4 out, ridden 2 out, kept on one pace
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (28 days); down 6lbs (wt); down in class; down in trip;
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: dropping in class, but has yet to find his preferred distance; in with a chance though.
Espoir De Guye 7-11-7 (149) (13.7)
’19/20 record 2/1/4 Best: 265.3 off 130 carrying 10-11 (Cl 2 HCh 19f hv Ascot)
‘20/21 record 1/0/2 Best: 279.2 off 144 carrying 11-12 (Cl 2 HCh 21f sf Ascot)
19/12/20 List HCh (342/146.2) 25f hv Ascot 11-6 11/4 F 8/10 36.75 l off 150
led, reached for 6th, headed after 8th, chased winner until 12th, chased leaders, weakened after 2 out (normal 3 out), tailed off
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); last time out (35 days); down 1lb (OR); down in class;
Minus: up 1lb (wt);
Verdict: won 3 of 6 chase starts and forgiven last time when up in class and patently didn’t stay 24f; has previously won over C&D in Cl 2 on sf ground and must have a good chance off a 5lbs higher mark.
Good Boy Bobby 8-11-2 (144) (16.3)
‘19/20 record 1/2/4
’20/21 record 1/2/3 Best: 271.6 off 146 carrying 11-1 (Gr 3 HCh 20.5 sf Chelt )
12/12/20 Gr 3 HCh (598/145.6) 20.5f sf Chelt 11-1 6/1 4/17 27.5 l off 146
held up towards rear, not fluent 1st, hampered 13th, stayed on from 2 out, never nearer
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (F); last time out (42 days); down in class; down 2lbs (OR);
Minus: course (?); up 1lb (wt);
Verdict: not sure how much the trouble in running cost him lto, but his overall record of 2/4/7 suggests that perhaps others will get the better of him; nevertheless, a productibe newcomer.
Bennys King 10-11-12 (154) (14.0)
‘19/20 1/1/4 Best: 283.9 off 145 carrying 11-4 (Cl 2 HCh 21f hv Ascot)
‘20/21 1/0/2 Best: 281.7 off 147 carrying 11-9 (Cl 2 HCh 19f hv Ascot)
18/12/20 Cl 2 HCh (156/134.7) 18f hv Ascot 11-9 13/2 1/12 6 l off 147
chased leaders, went 2nd 7th, led before 9th, hit 2 out (normal 3 out) 3 lengths ahead last (normal 2 out), stayed on strongly
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (35 days);
Minus: up 2lbs (wt); up 7lbs (OR);
Verdict: narrowly beaten last year off 145, but 9lbs higher this and hard to see him improving by that much in a tougher race.
The one I prefer here is Espoir De Guye who having found the trip too far last time could well make amends. I think that Benny King may be weighted out of it, so my choice for the places are Good Boy Bobby and Windsor Avenue, though I might have the order wrong.
No time to look at the hurdle race at Ascot (13.50) in detail, but Lightly Squeeze and Kateson would be on my shortlist.
Haydock 14.40 Gr 2 Handicap Chase 269 (141.2) 25.5f hv – 10 Run (8 at best)
Last year – 427 (141.9) hv – 10 ran
Vintage Clouds 7/1 10-10-11 (143) by 7l from Definitly Red 9/1 11-11-10 (156)
Claud And Goldie 25/1 11-10-4 (136) was 13.1 l 4th
Sam’s Adventure 9-10-7 (139) (13.5)
‘19/20 record 1/2/5 Best: 261.3 off 129 carrying 11-0 (Cl 2 NHCh 23f hv Uttox)
‘20/21 record 1/0/3 Best: 266.7 off 144 carrying 11-4 (Cl 2 HCh 25.5f hv Hayd)
19/12/20 Cl 2 HCh (250/133.7) 25.5 hv Hayd 11-4 14/1 1/10 off 133
midfield, reminder after 1st, took closer order 11th, close up travelling strongly 4 out, ridden before 2 out, led before last, stayed on strongly flat
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (35 days); down 11lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); up 6lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: obviously improving chaser winning the Tommy Whittle over C&D on his 8th chase start; raised 6lbs for that, which is fair and likely to continue improving now that he has hit form; lots of positives and a contender.
Potters Legend 11-10-4 (136) – 2lbs ooh (M 0.2)
‘19/20 record 0/1/5 Best: 267.4 off 132 carrying 10-5 (Gr 3 HCh 27.5f sf Chelt)
‘20/21 record 1/1/3 Best: 277.4 off 135 carrying 10-1 (Gr 3 HCh 27f sf Chelt)
‘02/01/21 Cl 2 Hcap (433/137.9) 24f sf Sand 10-4 5/1 F 5/15 9.75 l off 135
towards rear, closer in mid-division when badly hampered on inside bend before 3 out, chased leaders before 2 out, ridden and weakened before last
Plus: class (W); going (Fh); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: up in class; 2lbs out of handicap;
Verdict: still capable at this level as he showed when winning at Warwick in November and would probably done a little bit better at Sandown lto but for being badly hampered in running; however, not sure he really appreciates hv ground, although sound enough on sf and is a C&D winner.
Crievehill 9-10-13 (145) (3.1)
‘19/20 record 2/0/4 Best: 283.1 off 145 carrying 11-12 (Cl 2 HCh 25.5 gd/sf Hayd)
‘20/21 record 0/0/3 Best: 285.0 off 152 carrying 11-7 (Gr 2 HCh 20f sf Aint)
27/12/20 Cl 2 HCh (250/138.8) 24f sf Kemp 11-9 20/1 5/11 36 l off 147
prominent when not fluent 1st, chased leaders, lost place before 3rd, mistake 10th, well beaten from 4 out
Plus: class (W); going (Wh); distance (W); course (W); last time out (27 days); down 10lbs (wt); down 2lbs (OR);
Minus: up in class;
Verdict: won over C&D in November but has not figured since; lto finished well beaten Royale Pagaille (-2) at Kempton, not helped by jumping errors; meets him on 13lbs better terms; although he has won chase on sf, might actually be better suited by gd/sf and is only 1//2/9 on sf or hv ground; however, back to last winning mark and in as race where surprised abound noy entirely eliminated.
Smooth Stepper 12-10-8 (140)
‘19/20 record 1/1/3 Best: 282.1 off 136 carrying 10-0 (Gr 3 HCh 28.5f hv Hayd)
’20/21 record 0/0/2 Best: 272.0 off 144 carrying 11-8 (Cl 2 HCh 24f gd Sand)
06/12/20 Gr 3 HCh (674/146.3) 26f sf Aint 10-9 25/1 5/14 51.75 l off 142
mid-division, lost place 11th, towards rear when jumped slowly 14th (Canal Turn) rallied into modest 5th 2 out
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); last time out (49 days); down 1lb (wt); down 2lbs (OR);
Minus:
Verdict: looked good when winning the Nation Trial here in February but is still above that mark and not likely to improve as a 12yo; however, if this turns into a real slog could run into the frame.
I’m leaving out both Royale Pagaille because he has yet to prove that he can stay this far, plus the fact he’s off 16lbs higher than for his impressive Kempton run. That sees him toting 11-10, a high weight for any horse, let alone a 7yo who don’t do that well here. He may well win, but at 6/4 I think it’s a ridiculous price to take in a race on the Haydock quagmire.
I’m going for Sam’s Adventure who looks to have most in his favour. He should have enough to beat Potters Legend who I fancy to edge out Smooth Stepper and Crievehill neither of who have hit form yet this season
Ascot 15.00 Cl 2 Handicap Chase 328 (143.9) 21f sf – 14 Run
Last year – 469 (139.1) hv – 8 ran
Domaine De L’Isle 5/1 7-10-13 (140) by 0.25 l from Bennys King 14/1 9-11-4 (145)
Windsor Avenue 9-11-5 (147) (6.0)
’19/20 record 2/0/4
20/21 record 0/2/3 Best: 284.9 off 147 carrying 11-11 (Gr 3 HCh 24f sf Weth)
26/12/20 Gr 3 HCh (171/142.1) 24f sf Weth 11-11 5/1 3/8 4.25 l off 147
in touch, headway when left 3rd 4 out, ridden 2 out, kept on one pace
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (28 days); down 6lbs (wt); down in class; down in trip;
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: dropping in class, but has yet to find his preferred distance; in with a chance though.
Espoir De Guye 7-11-7 (149) (13.7)
’19/20 record 2/1/4 Best: 265.3 off 130 carrying 10-11 (Cl 2 HCh 19f hv Ascot)
‘20/21 record 1/0/2 Best: 279.2 off 144 carrying 11-12 (Cl 2 HCh 21f sf Ascot)
19/12/20 List HCh (342/146.2) 25f hv Ascot 11-6 11/4 F 8/10 36.75 l off 150
led, reached for 6th, headed after 8th, chased winner until 12th, chased leaders, weakened after 2 out (normal 3 out), tailed off
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); last time out (35 days); down 1lb (OR); down in class;
Minus: up 1lb (wt);
Verdict: won 3 of 6 chase starts and forgiven last time when up in class and patently didn’t stay 24f; has previously won over C&D in Cl 2 on sf ground and must have a good chance off a 5lbs higher mark.
Good Boy Bobby 8-11-2 (144) (16.3)
‘19/20 record 1/2/4
’20/21 record 1/2/3 Best: 271.6 off 146 carrying 11-1 (Gr 3 HCh 20.5 sf Chelt )
12/12/20 Gr 3 HCh (598/145.6) 20.5f sf Chelt 11-1 6/1 4/17 27.5 l off 146
held up towards rear, not fluent 1st, hampered 13th, stayed on from 2 out, never nearer
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (F); last time out (42 days); down in class; down 2lbs (OR);
Minus: course (?); up 1lb (wt);
Verdict: not sure how much the trouble in running cost him lto, but his overall record of 2/4/7 suggests that perhaps others will get the better of him; nevertheless, a productibe newcomer.
Bennys King 10-11-12 (154) (14.0)
‘19/20 1/1/4 Best: 283.9 off 145 carrying 11-4 (Cl 2 HCh 21f hv Ascot)
‘20/21 1/0/2 Best: 281.7 off 147 carrying 11-9 (Cl 2 HCh 19f hv Ascot)
18/12/20 Cl 2 HCh (156/134.7) 18f hv Ascot 11-9 13/2 1/12 6 l off 147
chased leaders, went 2nd 7th, led before 9th, hit 2 out (normal 3 out) 3 lengths ahead last (normal 2 out), stayed on strongly
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (35 days);
Minus: up 2lbs (wt); up 7lbs (OR);
Verdict: narrowly beaten last year off 145, but 9lbs higher this and hard to see him improving by that much in a tougher race.
The one I prefer here is Espoir De Guye who having found the trip too far last time could well make amends. I think that Benny King may be weighted out of it, so my choice for the places are Good Boy Bobby and Windsor Avenue, though I might have the order wrong.
No time to look at the hurdle race at Ascot (13.50) in detail, but Lightly Squeeze and Kateson would be on my shortlist.