Post by Old Timer on Jan 16, 2021 11:21:54 GMT
Well still looking for the first winner of the year, but it’ll come in time – maybe today. Thank goodness we’ve got Warwick on because otherwise I’d have that unappetising AW to feed on!
Warwick 15.00 Gr 3 Handicap Chase 265 (139.7) 29f sf – 13 Run
Last year – 427 (134.9) sf – 13 ran
Kimberlite Candy 9/2 8-11-4 (140) by 10 l from Captain Chaos 10/1 9-10-12 (134)
Petite Power 12/1 11-10-2 (131) was 17.5 l 3rd
Le Breuil 8/1 8-11-5 (148) was 27 l 5th
Storm Control 9-10-6 (140) (1.3)
‘19/20 record 2/1/7 Best: 268.3 off 135 carrying 11-8 (Cl 3 HCh 19f sf Donc)
‘20/21 record 2/1/4 Best: 280.4 off 137 carrying 10-3 (Gr 3 HCh 26f sf Chelt)
11/12/20 Gr 3 HCh (240/143.4) 26f sf Chelt 10-3 5/1 1/7 1 l off 137
jumped well, made all, 3 1/2 lengths clear when left with increased advantage last, suddenly started to idle badly and tried to pull himself up, looked vulnerable towards finish, quickly found extra when pressed
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); recent form run (36 days);
Minus: course; up 3lbs (wt); up 3lbs (OR);
Verdict: good record over fences and the way he quickly found extra when threated late on at Cheltenham in latest suggests that this trip will not be beyond him; proven in the class and on the going and with only a 3lbs rise in the weights, a contender.
Le Breuil 9-10-6 (140) (2.7)
‘19/20 record 0/0/4
‘20/21 record 0/1/2 Best: 277.0 off 142 carrying 10-11 (Cl 2 HCh Cl 2 26f gd Kelso)
05/12/20 Gr 3 HCh (674/146.3) 25f sf Aint 10-8 5/1 Jt F 3/14 28.75 l off 141
always prominent, led 4th until next, chased leaders, 2nd again 10th, led next, hit 15th (Canal Turn), headed 2 out, lost 2nd at the last, stayed on same pace in 3rd
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); recent form run (42 days); down 2lbs (wt); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: course;
Verdict: won ’19 Gr 2 NH amateur riders NCh at Cheltenham but failed to add to his total in 4 starts last year, his best effort when 5th here in last year’s renewal; runs off an 8lbs lower mark today and is coming off a breathing operation following a respectable 3rd in the Becher at Aintree; going and distance no problem, and a player.
Late Romantic 11-10-3 (137) (7.1)
‘19/20 record: 2/1/5 Best: 259.2 off 138 carrying 10-10 (Cl3NHCh 22.5f sf Leic)
‘20/21 record: 1/0/2 Best: 269.5 off 132 carrying 10-8 (Cl 2 HCh 25.5f hv Hayd)
02/12/20 Cl 2 HCh (143/137.6) 25.5f hv Hayd 10-8 10/1 1/7 0.1 l off 132
soon chasing leaders, went 2nd 5 out, ridden between last 2, 3 lengths down last, closed on idling/tiring leader to lead near finish
Plus: going (W); distance (W); recent form run (45 days); down 5lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 5lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: lightly raced for his age and won 3 of his 11 starts over fences, the latest at Haydock in December where he closed after the last over 25.5f; raised 5lbs for that narrow victory and stepping up in class; going should suit as has won on both sf and hv, but 25.5f the furthest he has form over.
Notachance 7-10-5 (139) (8.9)
‘19/20 record 1/2/4 Best: 254.3 off 130 carrying 11-4 (Cl 3 NHCh 23.5f sf Newb)
‘20/21 record 1/0/1 Best: 269.8 off 132 carrying 10-9 (Cl 2 HCh 24f sf Bang)
11/11/20 Cl 2 HCh (116/137.8) 24f sf Bang 10-9 6/1 1/12 3.75 l off 132
close up, lost place halfway, headway 3 out, led next, ridden and ran on
Plus: going (W); distance (W); form run lto; down4lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); course (?); dlr (66 days); up 7lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: impressive young chaser, but thereby hangs a query; he’s a 7yo whose only had 5 chase starts, and just one this season albeit a winning outing over 24f (the furthest he’s run) at Bangor; he’s bucking a lot of trends, but can’t be counted out.
There’s no room for Captain Courageous or Django Django, as recent form they have not, and I do like to see horses that suggest they might make a race of it. Likewise, The Hollow Ginge has never won over as far as 3 miles. And this is a good bit more than that.
Although I’ve included him on my shortlist, Notachance is bucking several established trends – age, runs per season, dlr, etc. – and the best I can hope for him is making the frame. Late Romantic stayed on well to win a veterans event at Haydock at the beginning of December, but this is a somewhat rise in class and he may be found out. The two that I like are Storm Control and especially Le Breuil, 8lbs better off than finishing 5th last year and having his first race back following a breathing operation. So for me it’s Le Breuil from Storm Control and if Notachance stays this far, maybe squeezing Late Romantic out of the frame.
Warwick 15.35 Cl 2 Handicap Hurdle 100 (132.3) 25f hv – 13 Run
Last year – 156 (134.6) sf – 14 ran
Silver Sheen 7/1 6-10-4 (130) 0.25 l from Doc Penfro 10/1 8-9-12 (129)
Come On Teddy 7-10-11 (134) (4.8)
‘19/20 record 1/2/5 Best: 244.0 off 122 carrying 11-4 (Cl 3 HHd 23f sf MRas)
‘20/21 record 1/0/2 Best: 261.5 off 137 carrying 10-2 (Cl 2 HHd 24f sf Chelt)
11/12/20 Cl 2 HHd (109/134.5) 24f sf Chelt 10-2 11/2 1/12 5.5 l off 127
held up in rear, headway after 3 out, led last, edged left flat, stayed on, clear towards finish
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (F); recent form run (36 days);
Minus: going (?); up 9lbs (wt); 7lbs (OR);
Verdict: improved performance on second run back when coming away from his field over 24f at Cheltenham; distance no problem but has not tried hv ground, only won on sf.
Imperial Alcazar 7-11-2 (139) (5.9)
‘19/20 record 3/1/4
‘20/21 record 0/0/1 Best: 265.4 off 140 carrying 10-11 (Gr 3 HHd 24.5f sf Hayd)
21/11/20 Gr 3 HHd (456/140.9) 24.5 sf Hayd 10-11 13/2 9/17 15.5 l off 140
held up in touch, chased leaders 5th, upsides 7th, led approaching 3 out, headed before 2 out, weakened before last
Plus: class (W); going (W); down in class; down 1lb (OR);
Minus: distance; course (?); up 5lbs (wt); down in class; break since last run (56 days);
Verdict: promising first season over hurdles with 3 wins and a 2nd; reasonable debut on return at Haydock until condition told; drops in class today and has won on hv; onky worry is the break.
Flemcara 9-10-11 (134) (8.3)
‘19/20 record 0/0/2
‘20/21 record 1/0/3 Best: 258.0 off 129 carrying 11-3 (Cl 3 HHd 24.5f hv Donc)
29/12/20 Cl 3 HHd (59/129.0) 24.5f hv Donc 11-3 11/4 1/6 1.25 l off 129
held up in touch, progress to press leader 3rd, led 6th, headed after 4 out, travelled strongly to lead before 3 out, ridden clear after 2 out, kept on from last
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); recent form run (18 days); down 6 lbs (wt);
Minus: course (?); up 5lbs (OR); up class;
Verdict: returned to winning format Doncaster lto, but has never won off 134 and this is a much tougher race.
You’re always susceptible to a rapidly improving sort, and that’s what Imperial Alcazar might be. I’ve just got to go with him ahead of Come On Teddy, thinking the pair might have a bit too much for Flemcara and the rest.
Warwick 15.00 Gr 3 Handicap Chase 265 (139.7) 29f sf – 13 Run
Last year – 427 (134.9) sf – 13 ran
Kimberlite Candy 9/2 8-11-4 (140) by 10 l from Captain Chaos 10/1 9-10-12 (134)
Petite Power 12/1 11-10-2 (131) was 17.5 l 3rd
Le Breuil 8/1 8-11-5 (148) was 27 l 5th
Storm Control 9-10-6 (140) (1.3)
‘19/20 record 2/1/7 Best: 268.3 off 135 carrying 11-8 (Cl 3 HCh 19f sf Donc)
‘20/21 record 2/1/4 Best: 280.4 off 137 carrying 10-3 (Gr 3 HCh 26f sf Chelt)
11/12/20 Gr 3 HCh (240/143.4) 26f sf Chelt 10-3 5/1 1/7 1 l off 137
jumped well, made all, 3 1/2 lengths clear when left with increased advantage last, suddenly started to idle badly and tried to pull himself up, looked vulnerable towards finish, quickly found extra when pressed
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); recent form run (36 days);
Minus: course; up 3lbs (wt); up 3lbs (OR);
Verdict: good record over fences and the way he quickly found extra when threated late on at Cheltenham in latest suggests that this trip will not be beyond him; proven in the class and on the going and with only a 3lbs rise in the weights, a contender.
Le Breuil 9-10-6 (140) (2.7)
‘19/20 record 0/0/4
‘20/21 record 0/1/2 Best: 277.0 off 142 carrying 10-11 (Cl 2 HCh Cl 2 26f gd Kelso)
05/12/20 Gr 3 HCh (674/146.3) 25f sf Aint 10-8 5/1 Jt F 3/14 28.75 l off 141
always prominent, led 4th until next, chased leaders, 2nd again 10th, led next, hit 15th (Canal Turn), headed 2 out, lost 2nd at the last, stayed on same pace in 3rd
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); recent form run (42 days); down 2lbs (wt); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: course;
Verdict: won ’19 Gr 2 NH amateur riders NCh at Cheltenham but failed to add to his total in 4 starts last year, his best effort when 5th here in last year’s renewal; runs off an 8lbs lower mark today and is coming off a breathing operation following a respectable 3rd in the Becher at Aintree; going and distance no problem, and a player.
Late Romantic 11-10-3 (137) (7.1)
‘19/20 record: 2/1/5 Best: 259.2 off 138 carrying 10-10 (Cl3NHCh 22.5f sf Leic)
‘20/21 record: 1/0/2 Best: 269.5 off 132 carrying 10-8 (Cl 2 HCh 25.5f hv Hayd)
02/12/20 Cl 2 HCh (143/137.6) 25.5f hv Hayd 10-8 10/1 1/7 0.1 l off 132
soon chasing leaders, went 2nd 5 out, ridden between last 2, 3 lengths down last, closed on idling/tiring leader to lead near finish
Plus: going (W); distance (W); recent form run (45 days); down 5lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 5lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: lightly raced for his age and won 3 of his 11 starts over fences, the latest at Haydock in December where he closed after the last over 25.5f; raised 5lbs for that narrow victory and stepping up in class; going should suit as has won on both sf and hv, but 25.5f the furthest he has form over.
Notachance 7-10-5 (139) (8.9)
‘19/20 record 1/2/4 Best: 254.3 off 130 carrying 11-4 (Cl 3 NHCh 23.5f sf Newb)
‘20/21 record 1/0/1 Best: 269.8 off 132 carrying 10-9 (Cl 2 HCh 24f sf Bang)
11/11/20 Cl 2 HCh (116/137.8) 24f sf Bang 10-9 6/1 1/12 3.75 l off 132
close up, lost place halfway, headway 3 out, led next, ridden and ran on
Plus: going (W); distance (W); form run lto; down4lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); course (?); dlr (66 days); up 7lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: impressive young chaser, but thereby hangs a query; he’s a 7yo whose only had 5 chase starts, and just one this season albeit a winning outing over 24f (the furthest he’s run) at Bangor; he’s bucking a lot of trends, but can’t be counted out.
There’s no room for Captain Courageous or Django Django, as recent form they have not, and I do like to see horses that suggest they might make a race of it. Likewise, The Hollow Ginge has never won over as far as 3 miles. And this is a good bit more than that.
Although I’ve included him on my shortlist, Notachance is bucking several established trends – age, runs per season, dlr, etc. – and the best I can hope for him is making the frame. Late Romantic stayed on well to win a veterans event at Haydock at the beginning of December, but this is a somewhat rise in class and he may be found out. The two that I like are Storm Control and especially Le Breuil, 8lbs better off than finishing 5th last year and having his first race back following a breathing operation. So for me it’s Le Breuil from Storm Control and if Notachance stays this far, maybe squeezing Late Romantic out of the frame.
Warwick 15.35 Cl 2 Handicap Hurdle 100 (132.3) 25f hv – 13 Run
Last year – 156 (134.6) sf – 14 ran
Silver Sheen 7/1 6-10-4 (130) 0.25 l from Doc Penfro 10/1 8-9-12 (129)
Come On Teddy 7-10-11 (134) (4.8)
‘19/20 record 1/2/5 Best: 244.0 off 122 carrying 11-4 (Cl 3 HHd 23f sf MRas)
‘20/21 record 1/0/2 Best: 261.5 off 137 carrying 10-2 (Cl 2 HHd 24f sf Chelt)
11/12/20 Cl 2 HHd (109/134.5) 24f sf Chelt 10-2 11/2 1/12 5.5 l off 127
held up in rear, headway after 3 out, led last, edged left flat, stayed on, clear towards finish
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (F); recent form run (36 days);
Minus: going (?); up 9lbs (wt); 7lbs (OR);
Verdict: improved performance on second run back when coming away from his field over 24f at Cheltenham; distance no problem but has not tried hv ground, only won on sf.
Imperial Alcazar 7-11-2 (139) (5.9)
‘19/20 record 3/1/4
‘20/21 record 0/0/1 Best: 265.4 off 140 carrying 10-11 (Gr 3 HHd 24.5f sf Hayd)
21/11/20 Gr 3 HHd (456/140.9) 24.5 sf Hayd 10-11 13/2 9/17 15.5 l off 140
held up in touch, chased leaders 5th, upsides 7th, led approaching 3 out, headed before 2 out, weakened before last
Plus: class (W); going (W); down in class; down 1lb (OR);
Minus: distance; course (?); up 5lbs (wt); down in class; break since last run (56 days);
Verdict: promising first season over hurdles with 3 wins and a 2nd; reasonable debut on return at Haydock until condition told; drops in class today and has won on hv; onky worry is the break.
Flemcara 9-10-11 (134) (8.3)
‘19/20 record 0/0/2
‘20/21 record 1/0/3 Best: 258.0 off 129 carrying 11-3 (Cl 3 HHd 24.5f hv Donc)
29/12/20 Cl 3 HHd (59/129.0) 24.5f hv Donc 11-3 11/4 1/6 1.25 l off 129
held up in touch, progress to press leader 3rd, led 6th, headed after 4 out, travelled strongly to lead before 3 out, ridden clear after 2 out, kept on from last
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); recent form run (18 days); down 6 lbs (wt);
Minus: course (?); up 5lbs (OR); up class;
Verdict: returned to winning format Doncaster lto, but has never won off 134 and this is a much tougher race.
You’re always susceptible to a rapidly improving sort, and that’s what Imperial Alcazar might be. I’ve just got to go with him ahead of Come On Teddy, thinking the pair might have a bit too much for Flemcara and the rest.