Post by Old Timer on Jan 9, 2021 11:17:39 GMT
I had good intentions of looking at the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton, but as normal so many of the fancied horses have no handicap form, so that would be a waste of time. By the time I realized it was too late to download another race, so all our hopes will rest on the Welsh National today – not a very good choice I’m afraid!
Chepstow 15.10 Gr 3 Handicap Chase 854 (142.9) 30.5f hv – 18 Run
Last year – 854 (139.4) 30.5f hv – 17 ran
Potters Corner 8/1 9-10-4 (154) by 1.75 l from Truckers Lodge 10/1 7-10-2 (139)
Yala Enke 8/1 9-11-7 (155) was 2.75 l 3rd
Prime Venture 11/1 8-10-1 (135) was 4.25 l 4th
The Two Amigos 8/1 7-10-8 (142) was 10.25l 5th
Secret Reprieve 7-10-1 (134) (10.3)
’19/20 record: 0/0/3
‘20/21 record: 1/0/2 Best: 266.6 off 130 carrying 10-13 (Cl 2 HCh 23.5f hv Chep)
05/12/20 Cl 2 HCh (127/136.6) 23.5f hv Chep 10-13 5/1 1/11 12l off 130
tracked leaders, travelled and jumped well, pressed leader 3 out (usually 4 out), led 2 out (usually 3 out), drew clear on the run to the last, comfortable
Plus: going (W); course (W); form run lto (22 days); down 12 lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); distance (?); 4lbs penalty; up in class;
Verdict: only beat 3 horses home in 3 starts last year, but has done better this after falling at Haydock, when handing a beating to The Two Amigos in the Trial here; however, that was only over 23.5 f and the main event is over 7f further; he may well stay, but he’s very short priced to take that risk on one so inexperienced.
The Two Amigos 9-10-9 (142) (12.1)
‘19/20 record: 0/1/5 Best: 271.2 off 142 carrying 10-8 (Gr 3 HCh 30.5 f hv Chep)
’20/21 record: 0/2/2 Best: 272.8 off 142 carrying 11-5 (Cl 2 HCh 24f sf Bang)
05/12/20 Cl 2 HCh (127/136.6) 23.5f hv Chep 11-11 9/2 2/11 12l off 142
disputed lead, led narrowly after 4 out (usually 5 out), ridden along and headed 2 out (usually 3 out), no more
Plus: going (W); distance (F); course (F); form run lto (22 days); down 16lbs (wt);
Minus: class; up in class;
Verdict: runs off the same mark as when finishing 5th last year and definitely stays this far on hv going; well beaten by Secret Reprieve in the Trial, but that’s 7f short of today’s affair and could well turn up with a different result.
Prime Venture 10-10-6 (139) (14.9)
‘19/20 record: 0/1/5 Best: 270.2 off 132 carrying 10-1 (Gr 3 HCh 30.5f hv Chep)
‘20/21 record: 1/0/1 Best: 267.0 off 134 carrying 11-6 (Cl 3 NHCh 26.5f gd/sf Sedge)
12/11/20 Cl 3 NHCh (70/133.0) 26.5f gd/sf Sedge 11-6 9/4 1/3 16 l off 134
jumped well, tracked leader, led on inside 3 out, clear after next, stayed on well, very easily
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (F); course (F); form run lto (45 days); down 14 lbs (wt);
Minus: up 5lbs (OR); up 2 classes.
Verdict: promise when 4th in last year’s renewal in first time cheekpieces but rather lost his way after falling at Haydock on next start and ended his season being PU in the Midlands National; eventually got off the mark at the 13th attempt when taking a Cl 3 NHCh at Sedgefield on his return; chances if renewing last year’s promise and noted that the cheekpieces have been reapplied today.
Christmas In April 9-10-3 (136) (23.2)
‘19/20 record: 3/1/6 Best: 255.7 off 125 carrying 11-6 (Cl 3 HCh 30.5f hv Exe)
‘20/21 record: 0/1/1 Best: 251.7 off 137 carrying 11-12 (Cl 3 HCh 27.5f hv Font)
15/11/20 Cl 3 (102/127.4) 27.5f hv Font 11-12 11/4 F 2/7 13 l off 137
led early, disputed lead throughout, lost position and 4th 3 out, stayed on to regain 2nd on run-in but no chance with easy winner
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (P); form run lto (42 days); down 23lbs (wt); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: class (?); up 2 classes;
Verdict: had a good second season over fences winning 3 of his 6 starts, although was PU on final start when favourite for the Midland National but PU after weakening – meets the winner, Truckers Lodge, on 16lbs better terms today; ran a Cl 3 at Fontwell on his season return and finished a satisfactory 2nd behind the easy winner; given 55 days rest, and should strip a lot fitter today; no problem with going or distance, although has yet to win above Cl 3.
Now for the ones I’ve left out and that includes the top two of Nicholls who have a weight problem. Yala Enki is used to carrying large weights and finished 3rd last year, but has been upped 5lbs. Last year’s runner-up Truckers Lodge is even worse off in that he’s got 17lbs more to hike round in the mud. Moreover, both are coming off non-completions in their last race, Yala Enke fell at Aintree and Truckers Lodge unseated his rider at Kelso, and no horse this century has won the Welsh National coming off a non-completion. They could go well, but they’re not among my tips for potential winners.
Neither for that matter is Springfield Fox, as while the going will suit him down to the ground, I’m not so sure of the distance, as he blundered and unshipped his rider at Cheltenham on his only try beyond 24f, plus worth only 4 chase starts he’s very inexperienced for a test like this. Others that don’t make the cut include Dominateur, Lots Du Mesnil and Ramses De Teillee.
Of those that do, Prime Venture has 5lbs more to carry than last year when he was 4th, but a 1/13 strike rate over doesn’t exactly fill one with hope even if he did win lto. Of course, the one that by all accounts should win is Secret Reprieve who is only 4lbs higher than when thrashing The Two Amigos in the trial. However, that is over 23.5f, and the main event is over 7f further – he may do it, but 7/2 is a very skinny price to take a risk like that for a horse only having his 6th chase. So The Two Amigos looks inviting, especially as he only has 1lb more to carry than lost year when he was 5th. Nevertheless, he’s not my choice for the winner as for that I’m going for Christmas in April whose only blot on his record was when he PU behind Truckers Lodge in the Midlands National in his last start of the season. He made a credible return 2nd to Cloudy Glen at Fontwell and after a reasonable break should be primed for success. So for me it’s Christmas In April from The Two Amigos with Secret Reprieve a danger if he stays and perhaps Prime Venture best of the rest.
Chepstow 15.10 Gr 3 Handicap Chase 854 (142.9) 30.5f hv – 18 Run
Last year – 854 (139.4) 30.5f hv – 17 ran
Potters Corner 8/1 9-10-4 (154) by 1.75 l from Truckers Lodge 10/1 7-10-2 (139)
Yala Enke 8/1 9-11-7 (155) was 2.75 l 3rd
Prime Venture 11/1 8-10-1 (135) was 4.25 l 4th
The Two Amigos 8/1 7-10-8 (142) was 10.25l 5th
Secret Reprieve 7-10-1 (134) (10.3)
’19/20 record: 0/0/3
‘20/21 record: 1/0/2 Best: 266.6 off 130 carrying 10-13 (Cl 2 HCh 23.5f hv Chep)
05/12/20 Cl 2 HCh (127/136.6) 23.5f hv Chep 10-13 5/1 1/11 12l off 130
tracked leaders, travelled and jumped well, pressed leader 3 out (usually 4 out), led 2 out (usually 3 out), drew clear on the run to the last, comfortable
Plus: going (W); course (W); form run lto (22 days); down 12 lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); distance (?); 4lbs penalty; up in class;
Verdict: only beat 3 horses home in 3 starts last year, but has done better this after falling at Haydock, when handing a beating to The Two Amigos in the Trial here; however, that was only over 23.5 f and the main event is over 7f further; he may well stay, but he’s very short priced to take that risk on one so inexperienced.
The Two Amigos 9-10-9 (142) (12.1)
‘19/20 record: 0/1/5 Best: 271.2 off 142 carrying 10-8 (Gr 3 HCh 30.5 f hv Chep)
’20/21 record: 0/2/2 Best: 272.8 off 142 carrying 11-5 (Cl 2 HCh 24f sf Bang)
05/12/20 Cl 2 HCh (127/136.6) 23.5f hv Chep 11-11 9/2 2/11 12l off 142
disputed lead, led narrowly after 4 out (usually 5 out), ridden along and headed 2 out (usually 3 out), no more
Plus: going (W); distance (F); course (F); form run lto (22 days); down 16lbs (wt);
Minus: class; up in class;
Verdict: runs off the same mark as when finishing 5th last year and definitely stays this far on hv going; well beaten by Secret Reprieve in the Trial, but that’s 7f short of today’s affair and could well turn up with a different result.
Prime Venture 10-10-6 (139) (14.9)
‘19/20 record: 0/1/5 Best: 270.2 off 132 carrying 10-1 (Gr 3 HCh 30.5f hv Chep)
‘20/21 record: 1/0/1 Best: 267.0 off 134 carrying 11-6 (Cl 3 NHCh 26.5f gd/sf Sedge)
12/11/20 Cl 3 NHCh (70/133.0) 26.5f gd/sf Sedge 11-6 9/4 1/3 16 l off 134
jumped well, tracked leader, led on inside 3 out, clear after next, stayed on well, very easily
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (F); course (F); form run lto (45 days); down 14 lbs (wt);
Minus: up 5lbs (OR); up 2 classes.
Verdict: promise when 4th in last year’s renewal in first time cheekpieces but rather lost his way after falling at Haydock on next start and ended his season being PU in the Midlands National; eventually got off the mark at the 13th attempt when taking a Cl 3 NHCh at Sedgefield on his return; chances if renewing last year’s promise and noted that the cheekpieces have been reapplied today.
Christmas In April 9-10-3 (136) (23.2)
‘19/20 record: 3/1/6 Best: 255.7 off 125 carrying 11-6 (Cl 3 HCh 30.5f hv Exe)
‘20/21 record: 0/1/1 Best: 251.7 off 137 carrying 11-12 (Cl 3 HCh 27.5f hv Font)
15/11/20 Cl 3 (102/127.4) 27.5f hv Font 11-12 11/4 F 2/7 13 l off 137
led early, disputed lead throughout, lost position and 4th 3 out, stayed on to regain 2nd on run-in but no chance with easy winner
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (P); form run lto (42 days); down 23lbs (wt); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: class (?); up 2 classes;
Verdict: had a good second season over fences winning 3 of his 6 starts, although was PU on final start when favourite for the Midland National but PU after weakening – meets the winner, Truckers Lodge, on 16lbs better terms today; ran a Cl 3 at Fontwell on his season return and finished a satisfactory 2nd behind the easy winner; given 55 days rest, and should strip a lot fitter today; no problem with going or distance, although has yet to win above Cl 3.
Now for the ones I’ve left out and that includes the top two of Nicholls who have a weight problem. Yala Enki is used to carrying large weights and finished 3rd last year, but has been upped 5lbs. Last year’s runner-up Truckers Lodge is even worse off in that he’s got 17lbs more to hike round in the mud. Moreover, both are coming off non-completions in their last race, Yala Enke fell at Aintree and Truckers Lodge unseated his rider at Kelso, and no horse this century has won the Welsh National coming off a non-completion. They could go well, but they’re not among my tips for potential winners.
Neither for that matter is Springfield Fox, as while the going will suit him down to the ground, I’m not so sure of the distance, as he blundered and unshipped his rider at Cheltenham on his only try beyond 24f, plus worth only 4 chase starts he’s very inexperienced for a test like this. Others that don’t make the cut include Dominateur, Lots Du Mesnil and Ramses De Teillee.
Of those that do, Prime Venture has 5lbs more to carry than last year when he was 4th, but a 1/13 strike rate over doesn’t exactly fill one with hope even if he did win lto. Of course, the one that by all accounts should win is Secret Reprieve who is only 4lbs higher than when thrashing The Two Amigos in the trial. However, that is over 23.5f, and the main event is over 7f further – he may do it, but 7/2 is a very skinny price to take a risk like that for a horse only having his 6th chase. So The Two Amigos looks inviting, especially as he only has 1lb more to carry than lost year when he was 5th. Nevertheless, he’s not my choice for the winner as for that I’m going for Christmas in April whose only blot on his record was when he PU behind Truckers Lodge in the Midlands National in his last start of the season. He made a credible return 2nd to Cloudy Glen at Fontwell and after a reasonable break should be primed for success. So for me it’s Christmas In April from The Two Amigos with Secret Reprieve a danger if he stays and perhaps Prime Venture best of the rest.