Post by Old Timer on Jan 2, 2021 11:25:31 GMT
Yesterday turned into one of those days again when I made a strong case from leaving the winner out and went with second and third – when will I ever learn!
Sandown 15.00 Cl 2 Handicap Chase 433 (137.5) 24f sf – 17 Ran
Last year – 619 (134.2) sf – 14 ran
Jepeck 3/1 F 11-10-11 (132) by 0.05l from Regal Flow 16/1 13-10-6 (127)
Theatre Guide 16/1 13-11.5 (137) was 0.3 l 3rd
Burtons Well 7/1 11-11-6 (138) was PU before 2 out
Potters Legend 11-10-11 (135) (M 4.9)
’19/20 record: 0/1/5 Best: 267.4 off 132 carrying 10-5 (Gr 3 HCh 27.5f sf Chelt)
‘20/21 record: 1/1/2 Best: 277.4 off 135 carrying 10-1 (Gr 3 HCh 26f sf Chelt)
11/12/20 Gr 3 HCh (240/143.4) 26f sf Chelt 10-1 7/1 2/7 1 l off 135 ]held up, pecked 2nd, jumped left and bumped next, not fluent 4th, closed 5th, mistake 18th, hung left after 2 out, left 2nd last, stayed on to close on idling winner flat, looked threatening towards finish until winner quickly found more when pressed
Plus: class (W+); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (22 days); down in class;
Minus: course; up 11lbs (wt);
Verdict: responded well for win surgery between seasons, beating Theatre Guide (+5) by 3.25l on his return with others of today’s field further back; then made several mistakes at Cheltenham but still finished 2nd to the younger Storm Control (+2); drops down in class today and could well gain his reward.
Crosspark 11-11-10 (148) (8.3)
‘19/20 record: 0/0/3
‘20/21 record: 0/3/3 Best: 280.0 off 143 carrying 11-7 (Cl 2 HCh 24f gd Sand)
05/12/20 Cl 2 HCh (223/132.9) 29f sf Sand 11-12 11/2 2/7 0.75 l off 145
tracked leaders, in third when slight mistake 3 out (usual 4 out) but went 2nd soon after, led 2 out but headed before last, ran on but just held
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (28 days); down 2lbs (wt);
Minus: up 3lbs (OR); down 5f;
Verdict: consistent performer at 24f and above and although a little out of sorts last year has rebounded to be runner-up in his 3 starts this; latest was in the London National here over 29f hcap here when he was 11 l clear of a staying on Regal Flow (-23) in 3rd; that has seen him rise to a career high mark of 148, which may prove a little too much for him today.
Jepeck 12-10-8 (132) (3.3)
‘19/20 record: 3/1/6 Best: 266.2 off 132 carrying 11-0 (Cl 2 HCh 24f sf Sand)
20/21 record: 0/0/2
05/12/20 Cl 2 HCh (137/126.6) 23.5f hv Chep 10-11 22/1 PU/11 off 135
tracked leaders, weakened quickly after the 11th, pulled up before 4 out (usually 5 out)
04/01/20 Cl 2 HCh (619/134.2) 24f sf Sand 10-11 3/1 F 1/14 0.1 l off 132
chased leaders, went 2nd approaching 8th, led before 2 out, ridden clear when hampered by loose horse before last, hung right and strongly pressed run-in, stayed on gamely, all out
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); last race (28 days); down 3lbs (wt); down3lbs (OR);
Minus:
Verdict: raced over hurdles last season until favourite here for the renewal, which he won by 0.05l and 0.3l from Regal Flow (-5) and Theatre Guide (+8); raised 7lbs for that but showed nothing in two starts, while he’s been PU in both starts this season; mark is back to 132 and is fitted with first-time tongue-tie and cheekpieces today, plus has the services of a 7lbs claiming conditional as he did last time; not without a chance if the headgear does the trick.
Late Romantic 11-10-13 (137) (4.9)
‘19/20 record: 2/1/5 Best: 246.8 off 127 carrying 12-0 (Cl 3 CondHCh 23.5 hv Kelso)
’20/21 record: 1/0/2 Best: 269.6 off 132 carrying 10-8 (Cl 2 HCh 25.5f hv Hayd)
02/12/20 Cl 2 HCh (143/137.6) 25.5 hv Hayd 10-8 10/1 1/7 0.1 l off 132
soon chasing leaders, went 2nd 5 out, ridden between last 2, 3 lengths down last, closed on idling/tiring leader to lead near finish
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (31 days);
Minus: course; up 5lbs (wt); up 5lbs (OR);
Verdict: little less exposed than some of the others, but still seems to be progressing although he only won last time due to his ability on heavy going; raised 5lbs for that, and that might prove too much on better ground and a shorter distance.
I fear the weight might prove too much for Crosspark as he aims to snap his succession or runner-up berths, while Late Romantic is possibly better over further in the direst of conditions. I don’t know what to make of Jepeck, but he looks like he’s been plotted for a repeat. However, the one they’ll all have to beat is Potters Legend whose taken to win from Jepeck and perhaps Crosspark in third.
Sandown 15.35 Cl 2 Handicap Hurdle 100 (132.8) 16f hv – 9 Run
Last year – 156 (134.5) sf – 11 ran
Mill Green 14/1 8-11-1 (134) by 0.75 l from Eldorado Allen 7/1 6-11-12 (145)
Totterdown 7/2 9-11-9 (142) was 9.25 l 3rd
Ruacano 20/1 11-10-0 (122) was PU before 3 out
Guard Your Dreams 5-10-9 (128) (4.6?)
‘20/21 record: 2/0/3
28/11/20 Cl 4 Nov Hd (38/) 16.5f sf Bang 11-5 8/11 F 1/5 10 l off 128
led, joined 2nd, narrow 2nd 3rd, regained lead 5th, pushed after 3 out, nicely clear jumping last, comfortably
Plus: distance (W); form run lto (35 days); down 10lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); going (?); course (?); up 2 classes.
Verdict: only had 3 novice events but the way the won at Bangor in a first=time hood was impressive; whether he’ll repeat today on heavier ground and making his hcap debut remains to be seen, but he must be given a fighting chance off the same mark.
Friend Or Foe 6-11-8 (141) (26.5)
‘20/21 record 1/2/4 Best: 247.4 off 128 carrying 11-12 (Cl 3 HHd 15.5f sf Winc)
15/12/20 Cl 3 HHd (59/119.4) 15.5f sf Winc 11-12 9/4 1/9 11 l off 128
prominent, travelled well into lead 2 out, went clear last, easily
Plus: class (F); distance (W); form run lto (18 days); down 4lbs (wt);
Minus: going (?); course (?); up 13lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: has wind operation and it took him 4 starts and the fitting of cheekpieces before he got back to winning ways, which he did in fine style at Wincanton on sf ground; however, he’s been raised 13lbs for that plus tackles hv going for the first time.
Highway One O Two 6-11-12 (145) (??)
’19/20 record: 3/0/3
‘20/21 record: 0/0/2
29/11/20 Cl 2 Beg Ch (70/) 16f sf Carl 11-4 6/4 UR/5 off 146
led, headed but close up 2nd, keen behind leader 4th, almost upsides when mistake and unseated rider 8th
22/02/20 Gr 2 Nov Hd (171/) 16f gd/sf Kemp 11-2 4/1 1/9 4.75 l off 135
bit keen early, made all, clear between last 2, 5 lengths ahead last, stayed on strongly, unchallenged
Plus: class (W+); going (W); distance (W); last outing (34 days);
Minus: course (?); up 10lbs (wt); up 10lbs (OR);
Verdict: went 3/3 over hurdles last season and has failed to finish his 2 chase starts this; must have a great chance reverting to hurdles, despite a 10lbs rose in the weights for his hcap debut.
Monsieur Le Coq 7-11-12 (145) (M 3.0)
‘19/20 record: 1/2/6 Best: 279.2 off 150 carrying 11-7 (Gr 3 HHd 15.5f hv Ascot)
‘20/21 record: 0/0/2
01/11/20 List Hd over 19f sf in France carried 10-10 finished 15.25l 6/7
21/12/19 Gr 3 HHd (138.2) 15.5 hv Ascot 11-7 6/1 2/13 9 l off 150
chased leaders, slightly hampered and dropped to mid-division 4th, rallied on inside before 2 out, went 2nd between last 2, no chance with very easy winner
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (W); last outing (62 days); class down;
Minus: no form since 21 December 2019
Verdict: has tried higher realms and even chasing since his good hurdles form in 2019, would have a squeak with a return to that, and claimers do well in this race.
Bit of a quandary here, but I’ve got to go with class and take Monsieur Le Coq from Highway One O Two with Guard Your Dreams learning what it takes to win in 3rd.
Sandown 15.00 Cl 2 Handicap Chase 433 (137.5) 24f sf – 17 Ran
Last year – 619 (134.2) sf – 14 ran
Jepeck 3/1 F 11-10-11 (132) by 0.05l from Regal Flow 16/1 13-10-6 (127)
Theatre Guide 16/1 13-11.5 (137) was 0.3 l 3rd
Burtons Well 7/1 11-11-6 (138) was PU before 2 out
Potters Legend 11-10-11 (135) (M 4.9)
’19/20 record: 0/1/5 Best: 267.4 off 132 carrying 10-5 (Gr 3 HCh 27.5f sf Chelt)
‘20/21 record: 1/1/2 Best: 277.4 off 135 carrying 10-1 (Gr 3 HCh 26f sf Chelt)
11/12/20 Gr 3 HCh (240/143.4) 26f sf Chelt 10-1 7/1 2/7 1 l off 135 ]held up, pecked 2nd, jumped left and bumped next, not fluent 4th, closed 5th, mistake 18th, hung left after 2 out, left 2nd last, stayed on to close on idling winner flat, looked threatening towards finish until winner quickly found more when pressed
Plus: class (W+); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (22 days); down in class;
Minus: course; up 11lbs (wt);
Verdict: responded well for win surgery between seasons, beating Theatre Guide (+5) by 3.25l on his return with others of today’s field further back; then made several mistakes at Cheltenham but still finished 2nd to the younger Storm Control (+2); drops down in class today and could well gain his reward.
Crosspark 11-11-10 (148) (8.3)
‘19/20 record: 0/0/3
‘20/21 record: 0/3/3 Best: 280.0 off 143 carrying 11-7 (Cl 2 HCh 24f gd Sand)
05/12/20 Cl 2 HCh (223/132.9) 29f sf Sand 11-12 11/2 2/7 0.75 l off 145
tracked leaders, in third when slight mistake 3 out (usual 4 out) but went 2nd soon after, led 2 out but headed before last, ran on but just held
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (28 days); down 2lbs (wt);
Minus: up 3lbs (OR); down 5f;
Verdict: consistent performer at 24f and above and although a little out of sorts last year has rebounded to be runner-up in his 3 starts this; latest was in the London National here over 29f hcap here when he was 11 l clear of a staying on Regal Flow (-23) in 3rd; that has seen him rise to a career high mark of 148, which may prove a little too much for him today.
Jepeck 12-10-8 (132) (3.3)
‘19/20 record: 3/1/6 Best: 266.2 off 132 carrying 11-0 (Cl 2 HCh 24f sf Sand)
20/21 record: 0/0/2
05/12/20 Cl 2 HCh (137/126.6) 23.5f hv Chep 10-11 22/1 PU/11 off 135
tracked leaders, weakened quickly after the 11th, pulled up before 4 out (usually 5 out)
04/01/20 Cl 2 HCh (619/134.2) 24f sf Sand 10-11 3/1 F 1/14 0.1 l off 132
chased leaders, went 2nd approaching 8th, led before 2 out, ridden clear when hampered by loose horse before last, hung right and strongly pressed run-in, stayed on gamely, all out
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); last race (28 days); down 3lbs (wt); down3lbs (OR);
Minus:
Verdict: raced over hurdles last season until favourite here for the renewal, which he won by 0.05l and 0.3l from Regal Flow (-5) and Theatre Guide (+8); raised 7lbs for that but showed nothing in two starts, while he’s been PU in both starts this season; mark is back to 132 and is fitted with first-time tongue-tie and cheekpieces today, plus has the services of a 7lbs claiming conditional as he did last time; not without a chance if the headgear does the trick.
Late Romantic 11-10-13 (137) (4.9)
‘19/20 record: 2/1/5 Best: 246.8 off 127 carrying 12-0 (Cl 3 CondHCh 23.5 hv Kelso)
’20/21 record: 1/0/2 Best: 269.6 off 132 carrying 10-8 (Cl 2 HCh 25.5f hv Hayd)
02/12/20 Cl 2 HCh (143/137.6) 25.5 hv Hayd 10-8 10/1 1/7 0.1 l off 132
soon chasing leaders, went 2nd 5 out, ridden between last 2, 3 lengths down last, closed on idling/tiring leader to lead near finish
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (31 days);
Minus: course; up 5lbs (wt); up 5lbs (OR);
Verdict: little less exposed than some of the others, but still seems to be progressing although he only won last time due to his ability on heavy going; raised 5lbs for that, and that might prove too much on better ground and a shorter distance.
I fear the weight might prove too much for Crosspark as he aims to snap his succession or runner-up berths, while Late Romantic is possibly better over further in the direst of conditions. I don’t know what to make of Jepeck, but he looks like he’s been plotted for a repeat. However, the one they’ll all have to beat is Potters Legend whose taken to win from Jepeck and perhaps Crosspark in third.
Sandown 15.35 Cl 2 Handicap Hurdle 100 (132.8) 16f hv – 9 Run
Last year – 156 (134.5) sf – 11 ran
Mill Green 14/1 8-11-1 (134) by 0.75 l from Eldorado Allen 7/1 6-11-12 (145)
Totterdown 7/2 9-11-9 (142) was 9.25 l 3rd
Ruacano 20/1 11-10-0 (122) was PU before 3 out
Guard Your Dreams 5-10-9 (128) (4.6?)
‘20/21 record: 2/0/3
28/11/20 Cl 4 Nov Hd (38/) 16.5f sf Bang 11-5 8/11 F 1/5 10 l off 128
led, joined 2nd, narrow 2nd 3rd, regained lead 5th, pushed after 3 out, nicely clear jumping last, comfortably
Plus: distance (W); form run lto (35 days); down 10lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); going (?); course (?); up 2 classes.
Verdict: only had 3 novice events but the way the won at Bangor in a first=time hood was impressive; whether he’ll repeat today on heavier ground and making his hcap debut remains to be seen, but he must be given a fighting chance off the same mark.
Friend Or Foe 6-11-8 (141) (26.5)
‘20/21 record 1/2/4 Best: 247.4 off 128 carrying 11-12 (Cl 3 HHd 15.5f sf Winc)
15/12/20 Cl 3 HHd (59/119.4) 15.5f sf Winc 11-12 9/4 1/9 11 l off 128
prominent, travelled well into lead 2 out, went clear last, easily
Plus: class (F); distance (W); form run lto (18 days); down 4lbs (wt);
Minus: going (?); course (?); up 13lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: has wind operation and it took him 4 starts and the fitting of cheekpieces before he got back to winning ways, which he did in fine style at Wincanton on sf ground; however, he’s been raised 13lbs for that plus tackles hv going for the first time.
Highway One O Two 6-11-12 (145) (??)
’19/20 record: 3/0/3
‘20/21 record: 0/0/2
29/11/20 Cl 2 Beg Ch (70/) 16f sf Carl 11-4 6/4 UR/5 off 146
led, headed but close up 2nd, keen behind leader 4th, almost upsides when mistake and unseated rider 8th
22/02/20 Gr 2 Nov Hd (171/) 16f gd/sf Kemp 11-2 4/1 1/9 4.75 l off 135
bit keen early, made all, clear between last 2, 5 lengths ahead last, stayed on strongly, unchallenged
Plus: class (W+); going (W); distance (W); last outing (34 days);
Minus: course (?); up 10lbs (wt); up 10lbs (OR);
Verdict: went 3/3 over hurdles last season and has failed to finish his 2 chase starts this; must have a great chance reverting to hurdles, despite a 10lbs rose in the weights for his hcap debut.
Monsieur Le Coq 7-11-12 (145) (M 3.0)
‘19/20 record: 1/2/6 Best: 279.2 off 150 carrying 11-7 (Gr 3 HHd 15.5f hv Ascot)
‘20/21 record: 0/0/2
01/11/20 List Hd over 19f sf in France carried 10-10 finished 15.25l 6/7
21/12/19 Gr 3 HHd (138.2) 15.5 hv Ascot 11-7 6/1 2/13 9 l off 150
chased leaders, slightly hampered and dropped to mid-division 4th, rallied on inside before 2 out, went 2nd between last 2, no chance with very easy winner
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (W); last outing (62 days); class down;
Minus: no form since 21 December 2019
Verdict: has tried higher realms and even chasing since his good hurdles form in 2019, would have a squeak with a return to that, and claimers do well in this race.
Bit of a quandary here, but I’ve got to go with class and take Monsieur Le Coq from Highway One O Two with Guard Your Dreams learning what it takes to win in 3rd.