Post by Old Timer on Jan 1, 2021 11:43:40 GMT
New Year’s Day and this week although Cheltenham is cancelled it was long ago and I didn’t waste all day analysing like I did with the Welsh National!! Perhaps I was fortunate that Musselburgh is on. Well, let’s hope we can get the New Year off with a winner. I believe that this year must be better than last.
Musselburgh 13.55 Cl 2 Handicap Hurdle 145 (129.6) 15.5f gd/sf – 11 Run (9 at best)
Last year – 188 (128.3) gd/sf – 11 ran
Sir Chauvelin 5/1 8-10-13 (129) by 1.25 l from Project Bluebook 8/1 7-11-9 (139)
Miranda 6-11-10 (143) (9.6)
‘19/20 record: 1/1/3 Best: 256.6 off 133 carrying 11-6 (Cl 2 HHd 15.5f gd/sf Muss)
‘20/21 record: 0/1/1 Best: 263.0 off 136 carrying 11-3 (Cl 2 HHd 16f gd/sf Lud)
02/12/20 Cl 2 HHd (97/127.0) 16f gd/sf Ludlow 11-3 3/1 1/7 0.5 l off 136
held up in rear but in touch, headway on outside to press leaders 5th, led narrowly 3 out, not fluent but in front 2 out, pushed out after last, held on
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (30 days);
Minus: up 7lbs (OR);
Verdict: was fit from two races on the Flat when opening her seasonal account over 16f at Ludlow, for which she’s raised 7lbs; had previously finished 2.5l 3rd to Sebastopol in the Scottish County Hurdle here in February, whose favourite for the previous Cl 3 hurdle; amateur retains the ride and is 5/7 over hurdles in the past 12 months; M a useful handicapper at around 16f.
Rosie And Millie 8-10-10 (129)
‘19/20 record: 1/2/4
‘20/21 record: 0/1/3 Best: 252.4 off 130 carrying 11-4 (Cl 2 HHd 15.5f sf Ascot)
05/12/20Li HHd (225/134.3) 16f hv Sand 10-9 12/1 4/10 18.5 l off 130
chased leader when awkward 2nd, raced in clear second until taking lead approaching 2 out, headed and dropped to 3rd before last, one pace
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); last run (27 days); down 1lb (OR); down class;
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: front-runner who had a second wind operation between seasons, but it was the fitting of tongue-tie that wrought improvement on penultimate run at Ayr where she finished runner-up to Buzz; subsequently not disgraced when 4th to Benson in a Listed hcap at Sandown;
Hazzaar 7-10-0 (119) (17.7)
‘19/20 record: 0/1/3
‘20/21 record: 0/1/2 Best: 230.9 off 117 carrying 11-4 (Cl 3 NHHd 16.5f gd/sf Chelt)
11/12/20 Cl 4 HHd (38/113.6) 16/5f gd/sf Donc 11-11 11/4 Jt F 4/10 4 l off 119
chased leaders, headway to lead before 2 out, ridden for effort and headed approaching last, no extra flat
Plus: distance (F); form run lto (21 days); down 25lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); going; course (?); up 2 classes;
Verdict: bumper winner in ’18, but only a placed effort over hurdles when moved to Venus’ care for a year; returned to the Lacey yard this year and two placed efforts over 16.5 f in Cl 3 & 4; might appreciate a furlong less, but 7th jockey in 8 starts today.
Raymond 6-10-0 (119) (35.7)
‘19/20 record: 0/1/6
‘20/21 record: 3/0/4 Best: 212.9 off 110 carrying 10-11 (Cl 4 HHd 15.5f gd Muss)
23/11/20 Cl 4 HHd (43/102.9) 15.5f gd Muss 10-11 2/1 F 1/14 1.75 l off 110
held up towards rear of midfield, headway before 3 out, hampered slightly 2 out, ridden to lead before last, stayed on strongly flat
Plus: distance (W); course (W); form run lto (39 days); down 11 lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); going; up 9lbs (OR); up 2 classes;
Verdict: improved no end this season winning 3 on the trot over C&D; however, they were all of gd going, plus he was being ridden by 10lbs claiming rider; neither apply today, plus he’s rising 2 classes; hard to make a case.
Manucci won on the AW back in October but has since changed stables and seems unlikely to make a winning debut for the Vaughan yard. Blakeney Point had a useful Flat career with
Charlton, but has had 2 wind operations each time showing improved in their aftermath. Looks to have a bit if an ask today, however, as he moves into hcap company.
I can’t see Raymond making the step up in class and although he’s shown his liking for the C&D that was in lower class on gd going, which he’s not going to get today. Hazzaar is another that I’ve got my doubts about and although he’s got his favourite jockey, the stable’s going through a bit of a disappointing spell. I fancy the two mares here and with Proschema being a N/R I think Miranda will make Nicholls long trip worthwhile getting the better of Rosie And Millie, with perhaps Hazzaar edging out Blakeney Point for third.
Musselburgh 15.05 Cl 2 Handicap Chase 156 (133.5) 20.5 sf – 12 Run (11 at best)
Last year – 188 (130.7) gd/sf – 14 ran
Nuts Well 10/1 9-11-7 (140) by 0.1 l from Cracking Destiny 6/1 7-10-11 (125)
Cool Mix 17/2 8-10-13 (127) was 3.35 l 3rd
Get Out The Gate 10/1 7-11-7 (135) PU before 4 out
Cool Mix 9-11-1 (132) (M 5.1)
’19/20 record: 0/1/4 Best: 254.4 off 127 carrying 10-13 (Cl 2 HCh 20.5f gd/sf Muss)
‘29/21 record: 1/3/4 Best: 270.6 off 132 carrying 10-0 (List HCh 23.5f gd Newcs)
28/11/20 List HCh (285/143.3) 23.5f gd Newcs 10-0 7/1 3/10 4.75 l off 132
well towards rear, hampered and rider nearly unseated when lost iron 11th, regained iron at 13th, headway next, ridden 3 out, kept on flat
Plus: class (W); going (Fh); distance (F); course (F); form run lto (34 days); down in class; down in distance;
Minus: up 15lbs (wt);
Verdict: runs off a 5lbs higher mark than when 3rd in last year’s renewal, but has improved this season winning one and being in the frame on the 3 other occasions; that included last time in the Listed Rehearsal chase at Newcastle, when the rider did well to remain in the saddle; only slight query is the ground, for while he’s won on gd/sf he’s yet to succeed on sf.
Schiehallion Munro 8-11-10 (141) (7.4)
‘19/20 record: 3 /1/4
‘20/21 record: 0/1/2 Best: 267.1 off 139 carrying 11-12 (Cl 3 HCh 19.5f sf Weth)
14/11/20 Cl 3 HCh (99/132.3) 19.5f sf Weth 11-12 100/30 F 2/9 4.25 l off 139
led until 3rd, chased leader until before 8th, close 3rd, 2nd again before 4 out, led again 4 out, headed last, no extra run-in
Plus: going (W); distance (W); form run lto (48 days); down 2lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 2lbs (OR); up in class; up in distance;
Verdict: hasn’t quite hit the heights of last season yet, but showed promise at Wetherby in both his runs, likely to be closer to Cool Mix (-14) when a loose horse carried him wide, and then still lacking fitness when 2nd in mid-November; must have a chance on 5lbs better terms with Cool Mix.
Red Risk 6-11-12 (143) (4.5)
‘19/20 record: 2/0/4 Best: 263.0 off 135 carrying 11-8 (Cl 3 NHCh 20f sf Lud)
‘20/21 record: 0/1/2 Best: 272.0 off 144 carrying 11-12 (Cl 2 HCh 21.5f gd Mkt Ras)
20/11/20 Cl 2 HCh (156/135.2) 21f sf Ascot 11-12 7/2 5/9 53.25 l off 144
prominent, mistake 10th, weakened after 3 out
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); last race (42 days); down 10lbs (wt); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: although has won 2 of his 6 starts over fences he’s still learning his craft as evidenced by his mistake at the 10th at Ascot lto, which knocked the stuffing out of him; has the help of a 10lbs claimer today, but he’s a mere 2/13 for his chase rides in the past year.
Return Ticket 8-11-10 (141) (10.3)
‘19/20 record: 0/2/4
‘20/21 record: 2/2/6 Best: 264.2 off 134 carrying 11-8 (Cl 3 NHCh 16f gd Muss)
23/11/20 Cl 3 NHCh (77/130.2) 16f gd Muss 11-8 7/4 F 1/4 6.5 l off 134
chased leader, close up 7th, led narrowly 4 out, drew clear 2 out, pushed out
Plus: going (F); course (W); form run lto (39 days);
Minus: class; distance (?); up 2lbs (wt); up 7lbs (OR); up in class; up 4.5f in trip;
Verdict: joined the Rebecca Menzies yard from Ruth Jefferson between seasons and has already been busy scoring twice from 6 starts, the latest over 16f here following a wind operation; has never tried this kind of distance and the majority of races have been on gd or gd/sf; looks to be a bit high in the weight for a horse stepping up in distance and not proven on the going.
I’m afraid I don’t hold out much hope for Romain De Senam as the Skeltons don’t seem to have the same touch with him as Nicholls had. Mind you, I don’t hold out much hope for the Nicholls entry as he’s still learning his way and even with a 10lbs claim will struggle to do better than 3rd. Return Ticket may prove a threat as an improving sort, but up in trip on ground he’s not proven on, leaves me with some doubts. I’m much more interested in the improving Schiehallion Munro (that’s a mouth-full) and last year’s 3rd, Cool Mix. CM’s off a 5lbs higher mark, but he’s entitled to be the improvement he’s shown and so I’ve got to go with Cool Mix from Schiehallion Munro with perhaps Red Risk in 3rd.
Musselburgh 13.55 Cl 2 Handicap Hurdle 145 (129.6) 15.5f gd/sf – 11 Run (9 at best)
Last year – 188 (128.3) gd/sf – 11 ran
Sir Chauvelin 5/1 8-10-13 (129) by 1.25 l from Project Bluebook 8/1 7-11-9 (139)
Miranda 6-11-10 (143) (9.6)
‘19/20 record: 1/1/3 Best: 256.6 off 133 carrying 11-6 (Cl 2 HHd 15.5f gd/sf Muss)
‘20/21 record: 0/1/1 Best: 263.0 off 136 carrying 11-3 (Cl 2 HHd 16f gd/sf Lud)
02/12/20 Cl 2 HHd (97/127.0) 16f gd/sf Ludlow 11-3 3/1 1/7 0.5 l off 136
held up in rear but in touch, headway on outside to press leaders 5th, led narrowly 3 out, not fluent but in front 2 out, pushed out after last, held on
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (30 days);
Minus: up 7lbs (OR);
Verdict: was fit from two races on the Flat when opening her seasonal account over 16f at Ludlow, for which she’s raised 7lbs; had previously finished 2.5l 3rd to Sebastopol in the Scottish County Hurdle here in February, whose favourite for the previous Cl 3 hurdle; amateur retains the ride and is 5/7 over hurdles in the past 12 months; M a useful handicapper at around 16f.
Rosie And Millie 8-10-10 (129)
‘19/20 record: 1/2/4
‘20/21 record: 0/1/3 Best: 252.4 off 130 carrying 11-4 (Cl 2 HHd 15.5f sf Ascot)
05/12/20Li HHd (225/134.3) 16f hv Sand 10-9 12/1 4/10 18.5 l off 130
chased leader when awkward 2nd, raced in clear second until taking lead approaching 2 out, headed and dropped to 3rd before last, one pace
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); last run (27 days); down 1lb (OR); down class;
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: front-runner who had a second wind operation between seasons, but it was the fitting of tongue-tie that wrought improvement on penultimate run at Ayr where she finished runner-up to Buzz; subsequently not disgraced when 4th to Benson in a Listed hcap at Sandown;
Hazzaar 7-10-0 (119) (17.7)
‘19/20 record: 0/1/3
‘20/21 record: 0/1/2 Best: 230.9 off 117 carrying 11-4 (Cl 3 NHHd 16.5f gd/sf Chelt)
11/12/20 Cl 4 HHd (38/113.6) 16/5f gd/sf Donc 11-11 11/4 Jt F 4/10 4 l off 119
chased leaders, headway to lead before 2 out, ridden for effort and headed approaching last, no extra flat
Plus: distance (F); form run lto (21 days); down 25lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); going; course (?); up 2 classes;
Verdict: bumper winner in ’18, but only a placed effort over hurdles when moved to Venus’ care for a year; returned to the Lacey yard this year and two placed efforts over 16.5 f in Cl 3 & 4; might appreciate a furlong less, but 7th jockey in 8 starts today.
Raymond 6-10-0 (119) (35.7)
‘19/20 record: 0/1/6
‘20/21 record: 3/0/4 Best: 212.9 off 110 carrying 10-11 (Cl 4 HHd 15.5f gd Muss)
23/11/20 Cl 4 HHd (43/102.9) 15.5f gd Muss 10-11 2/1 F 1/14 1.75 l off 110
held up towards rear of midfield, headway before 3 out, hampered slightly 2 out, ridden to lead before last, stayed on strongly flat
Plus: distance (W); course (W); form run lto (39 days); down 11 lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); going; up 9lbs (OR); up 2 classes;
Verdict: improved no end this season winning 3 on the trot over C&D; however, they were all of gd going, plus he was being ridden by 10lbs claiming rider; neither apply today, plus he’s rising 2 classes; hard to make a case.
Manucci won on the AW back in October but has since changed stables and seems unlikely to make a winning debut for the Vaughan yard. Blakeney Point had a useful Flat career with
Charlton, but has had 2 wind operations each time showing improved in their aftermath. Looks to have a bit if an ask today, however, as he moves into hcap company.
I can’t see Raymond making the step up in class and although he’s shown his liking for the C&D that was in lower class on gd going, which he’s not going to get today. Hazzaar is another that I’ve got my doubts about and although he’s got his favourite jockey, the stable’s going through a bit of a disappointing spell. I fancy the two mares here and with Proschema being a N/R I think Miranda will make Nicholls long trip worthwhile getting the better of Rosie And Millie, with perhaps Hazzaar edging out Blakeney Point for third.
Musselburgh 15.05 Cl 2 Handicap Chase 156 (133.5) 20.5 sf – 12 Run (11 at best)
Last year – 188 (130.7) gd/sf – 14 ran
Nuts Well 10/1 9-11-7 (140) by 0.1 l from Cracking Destiny 6/1 7-10-11 (125)
Cool Mix 17/2 8-10-13 (127) was 3.35 l 3rd
Get Out The Gate 10/1 7-11-7 (135) PU before 4 out
Cool Mix 9-11-1 (132) (M 5.1)
’19/20 record: 0/1/4 Best: 254.4 off 127 carrying 10-13 (Cl 2 HCh 20.5f gd/sf Muss)
‘29/21 record: 1/3/4 Best: 270.6 off 132 carrying 10-0 (List HCh 23.5f gd Newcs)
28/11/20 List HCh (285/143.3) 23.5f gd Newcs 10-0 7/1 3/10 4.75 l off 132
well towards rear, hampered and rider nearly unseated when lost iron 11th, regained iron at 13th, headway next, ridden 3 out, kept on flat
Plus: class (W); going (Fh); distance (F); course (F); form run lto (34 days); down in class; down in distance;
Minus: up 15lbs (wt);
Verdict: runs off a 5lbs higher mark than when 3rd in last year’s renewal, but has improved this season winning one and being in the frame on the 3 other occasions; that included last time in the Listed Rehearsal chase at Newcastle, when the rider did well to remain in the saddle; only slight query is the ground, for while he’s won on gd/sf he’s yet to succeed on sf.
Schiehallion Munro 8-11-10 (141) (7.4)
‘19/20 record: 3 /1/4
‘20/21 record: 0/1/2 Best: 267.1 off 139 carrying 11-12 (Cl 3 HCh 19.5f sf Weth)
14/11/20 Cl 3 HCh (99/132.3) 19.5f sf Weth 11-12 100/30 F 2/9 4.25 l off 139
led until 3rd, chased leader until before 8th, close 3rd, 2nd again before 4 out, led again 4 out, headed last, no extra run-in
Plus: going (W); distance (W); form run lto (48 days); down 2lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 2lbs (OR); up in class; up in distance;
Verdict: hasn’t quite hit the heights of last season yet, but showed promise at Wetherby in both his runs, likely to be closer to Cool Mix (-14) when a loose horse carried him wide, and then still lacking fitness when 2nd in mid-November; must have a chance on 5lbs better terms with Cool Mix.
Red Risk 6-11-12 (143) (4.5)
‘19/20 record: 2/0/4 Best: 263.0 off 135 carrying 11-8 (Cl 3 NHCh 20f sf Lud)
‘20/21 record: 0/1/2 Best: 272.0 off 144 carrying 11-12 (Cl 2 HCh 21.5f gd Mkt Ras)
20/11/20 Cl 2 HCh (156/135.2) 21f sf Ascot 11-12 7/2 5/9 53.25 l off 144
prominent, mistake 10th, weakened after 3 out
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); last race (42 days); down 10lbs (wt); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: although has won 2 of his 6 starts over fences he’s still learning his craft as evidenced by his mistake at the 10th at Ascot lto, which knocked the stuffing out of him; has the help of a 10lbs claimer today, but he’s a mere 2/13 for his chase rides in the past year.
Return Ticket 8-11-10 (141) (10.3)
‘19/20 record: 0/2/4
‘20/21 record: 2/2/6 Best: 264.2 off 134 carrying 11-8 (Cl 3 NHCh 16f gd Muss)
23/11/20 Cl 3 NHCh (77/130.2) 16f gd Muss 11-8 7/4 F 1/4 6.5 l off 134
chased leader, close up 7th, led narrowly 4 out, drew clear 2 out, pushed out
Plus: going (F); course (W); form run lto (39 days);
Minus: class; distance (?); up 2lbs (wt); up 7lbs (OR); up in class; up 4.5f in trip;
Verdict: joined the Rebecca Menzies yard from Ruth Jefferson between seasons and has already been busy scoring twice from 6 starts, the latest over 16f here following a wind operation; has never tried this kind of distance and the majority of races have been on gd or gd/sf; looks to be a bit high in the weight for a horse stepping up in distance and not proven on the going.
I’m afraid I don’t hold out much hope for Romain De Senam as the Skeltons don’t seem to have the same touch with him as Nicholls had. Mind you, I don’t hold out much hope for the Nicholls entry as he’s still learning his way and even with a 10lbs claim will struggle to do better than 3rd. Return Ticket may prove a threat as an improving sort, but up in trip on ground he’s not proven on, leaves me with some doubts. I’m much more interested in the improving Schiehallion Munro (that’s a mouth-full) and last year’s 3rd, Cool Mix. CM’s off a 5lbs higher mark, but he’s entitled to be the improvement he’s shown and so I’ve got to go with Cool Mix from Schiehallion Munro with perhaps Red Risk in 3rd.