Post by Old Timer on Dec 26, 2020 10:37:50 GMT
Hope you all had a good Christmas, different but still enjoyable. I also hope that the horses are going to start to cooperate, as the season has not started well at all. So here’s in hopes we get some right.
Wetherby 14.05 Gr 3 Handicap Chase 171 (141.7) 24f sf – 9 Run
Last year – 236 (142.8) sf – 10 ran
Top Ville Ben 3/1 F 7-11-11 (154) by 8 l from Didero Vallis 5/1 6-9-10 (132)
Guitar Pete 7/1 9-10-12 (141) was 40.8 l last of 7 finishers
Spiritofthegames 8-11-12 (148) (M 2.2)
’19/20 record: 0/2/5 Best: 290.6 off 140 carrying 11-7 (Gr 3 HCh 20.5f sf Chelt)
‘20/21 record: 0/1/1 Best: 291.9 off 148 carrying 11-2 (Gr 3 HCh 20f sf Chelt)
14/11/20 Gr 3 HCh 20f sf Chelt (740/147.1) 11-2 14/1 2/16 3.25 l off 148
held up in rear, mistake 5th, headway before 3 out, left 2nd 2 out, every chance last, edged right flat, held inside final 100 yards
Plus: class (F); going (Wh); form run lto (42 days);
Minus: distance (?); course (?); up 10lbs (wt);
Verdict: ran with his usual promise lto in Gr 3 at Cheltenham, but was held in final 110 yds; this usually the way as only chase win came back in Oct 2018 in a Listed Nov Ch over 19.5f at Chepstow; has never tried beyond 20.5f so quite a step up in trip with top weight; could be what he’s looking for, but with strike rate at less than 10% not for me.
Canelo 7-11-6 (142) (15.2)
‘19/20 record: 1/1/4 Best: 247.2 off 125 carrying 11-12 (Cl 2 HCh 20f hv Hunt
‘20/21 record: 1/1/3 Best: 268.5 off 138 carrying 11-9 (Cl 2 HCh 22.5f gd Newb
28/11/20 Cl 2 HCh (188/134.7) 22.5f gd Newb 11-9 8/1 2/16 4.25 l off 138
held up towards rear of mid-division on inside, headway 12th, kept on run-in, went 2nd near finish, no chance with winner
Plus: going (F); form run lto (28 days); down 3lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); distance; course (?); up 4lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: finished L/11 on only try at 24f in February, but has improved for the fitting of cheekpieces the last two starts, when winning a Cl3 NHCh over 20f on gd/sf at Aintree, and improved when staying on in a Cl2 HCh over22.5f at Newbury; raised 4lbs for that, but is rising in both class and distance.
Wandrin Star 9-11-5 (141) (15.3)
‘19/20 record: 1/0/3 Best: 269.9 off 135 carrying 11-7 (Cl 3 HCh 26.5f gd Winc)
‘20/21 record: 0/1/1 Best: 267.4 off 137 carrying 11-12 (Cl 3 HCh 24f sf Ascot)
20/11/20 Cl 3 HCh (97130.5) 24f sf Ascot 11-12 18/1 2/11 0.1 l off 137
prominent, nudged along to hold position 3 out, headway to join leaders after last, ran on well, just denied
Plus: going (W); distance (W); form run lto (36 days); down 7lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 4lbs (OR); up 2 classes;
Verdict: ran a good race on return from wind surgery and although he’s never won above Cl 3 before, he possibly could be a threat if building on Ascot return.
Snow Leopardess 8-10-13 (135) (17.2)
‘20/21 1/0/3 Best: 259.5 off 126 carrying 10-10 (Cl 2 HCh 25.5 sf Hayd)
21/11/20 Cl 2 HCh (251/133.5) 25.5 sf Hayd 10-10 9/2 F 1/12 0.5 l off 126
held up in touch, not fluent 4th, blundered 14th, headway under pressure 4 out, moved into 2nd before 2 out, stayed on strongly from last, got up final strides
Plus: class (Wh); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (35 days);
Minus: course; up 4lbs (wt); up 9lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: Gr 2 winner over hurdles and has only had 3 starts over fences, and although a bit novice with his jumping stayed on resolutely to win over 24.5f at Haydock; raised 9lbs for that, but there should be much more to come providing he pouts in a clear round.
Springtown Lake 8-11-5 (141)
‘19/20 record: 1/1/5 Best: 272.1 off 135 carrying 10-12 (Cl 2 HCh 20f hv Warw)
’20/21 record: 0/1/2 Best: 271.8 off 142 carrying 11-5 (Cl 2 HCh 20f gd/sf Aint)
06/12/20 Cl 2 HCh (396/138.4) 21f sf Aint 11-2 11/2 5/18 16.75 l off 142
towards rear, mistake 2nd, bad blunder 9th, headway chasing leaders after 3 out, weakened next
07/11/20 Cl 2 HCh (198/137.8) 20f gd/sf Aint 11-5 9/2 2/8 8l off 142
chased leader, pushed along 4 out, pecked 3 out, no impression on winner last, kept on
Plus: going (W); recent run (21 days); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: class; distance; course (?); up in class;
Verdict: was 9th to Simply The Betts in this class at Cheltenham in March, and similarly failed at 24f earlier in his chasing career; inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt lto, for the mistakes would have taken a lot out of him when 16.75l 5/16 to Beau Bay (-14) at Aintree and meets him on 8lbs better terms today; interesting tried at 24f again, and maybe in with a chance in first-time cheekpieces.
A competitive field and you can only rule out Guitar Pete at the first get go. The other 10yo, The Dutchman can also go as they don’t win too often and has generally preferred hv ground throughout his career. Nor am I too fond of Aintree winner Beau Bay back facing normal fences and up 7lbs, especially for a 9yo. Top weight Spiritofthe games flatters to deceive having won only one of his 11 starts over fences and I fear it may be more of the same today, especially as he’s never tried this far before. Wandrin Star has done well enough in lower class but has had a wind operation. Nevertheless, the step up from Cl 3 will likely be too much for him. I’m intrigued by Springtown Lake back at 24f, and maybe this time it won’t prove too far, but he’ll have to put in a clear round. Canelo is an improving sort and could improve more for the step up to 24f. however, the one to watch is Snow Leopardess despite having a hard race lto, He showed enough in winning there to give him a favourite’s chance of taking this which I expect him to do from Canelo with perhaps Springtown Lake holding off Wandrin Star for 3rd.
Wincanton 14.55 Cl 2 Handicap Hurdle 94 (127.8) 21.5f sf – 10 Run (9 at best)
Last year – 136 (131.1) hv – 8 ran
Third Wind 11/2 5-11-3 (137) by 1.25 l from Jatiluwih 5/2 Jt F 5-11-9 (146)
Duc De Beauchene 9/2 6-10-9 (129) was 17.25 l 7th
Shang Tang 6-11-4 (130) (3.8?)
‘19/20 record: 0/2/4
’20/21 record: 1/1/2 Best: 243.6 off 126 carrying 11-8 (Cl 3 HHd 19.5 sf Weth)
21/11/20 Cl 2 NHd (120/) 21.5 sf Ascot 10-12 9/4 1/4 3 l off 127
raced wider that rivals, soon 2nd, led 2 out, stayed on, ridden out
31/10/20 Cl 3 HHd (65/124.6) 19.5f sf Weth 11-8 11/1 3/18 7 l off 126
midfield, headway before 3 out, almost upsides 2 out, ridden before last, kept on down far rail flat
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (F); form run lto (35 days);
Minus: course (?); up 6lbs (wt); up 3lbd (OR);
Verdict: improved for 2nd season over hurdles, being a decent 3/18 in a Cl 3 HHd on his return and followed that up by getting the better of Southfield Harvest (+5) in a Cl 2 NHd;
Meets SH on 8lbs worse terms, which should see them much closer.
Southfield Harvest 6-11-4 (130) (M 1.2?)
‘19/20 record: 1/1/2
’20/21 record: 0/1/1
21/11/20 Cl 2 NHd (120/) 21.5 sf Ascot 11-3 5/4 F 2/4 3 l off 127
led, slow 1st, headed 2 out, held from last, kept on
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (F); course (F); form run lto (35 days); down 2lbs (wt);
Minus: up 3lbs (OR);
Verdict: just the 3 starts over hurdles and put up a creditable effort behind Shang Tang (-5) over today’s distance at Ascot on his return; ridden by a conditional who has a good record for Nicholls, and will meet ST on 8lbs better terms; a likely contender.
Mario De Pail 5-11-12 (138) (6.6)
‘19/20 record: 1/1/3
‘20/21 record: 1/0/2 Best: 259.2 off 133 carrying 11-12 (Cl 3 HHd 19.5f sf Weth)
14/11/20 Cl 3 HHd (61/126.2) 19.5 sf Weth 11-12 13/8 F 1/10 0.5 l off 133
tracked leaders on inside, 2nd travelling well before 3 out, 1 length down when hit 2 out, ridden between last 2, challenged last, driven and sustained run to lead close home
Plus: going; form run lto (42 days); down 5lbs (wt);
Minus: class; distance (?); course (?); up 5lbs (OR);
Verdict: promising 5th in the Welsh Champion Hurdle on his return and followed it up with an impressive win in a Cl 3 at Wetherby; raised 5lbs for that but that offset by the claim of his conditional rider who does well for the stable; not tried the distance, but is a 5yo with a claim.
Jacmar 5-11-1 (127) (M 1.5)
‘19/20 record: 1/1/7 Best:
‘20/21 record: 1/0/6 Best: 256/6 off 122 carrying 10-0 (Cl 2 HHd 20f sf Aint)
28/11/20 Cl 2 HHd (162/134.5) 20.5f gd Newb 10-11 20/1 4/12 5.25 l off 127
held up in rear, headway on inside before the last, kept on run-in, nearest finish
Plus: class (W); going (W); course (W); form run lto (28 days);
Minus: distance; up 1lb (wt);
Verdict: has been kept mainly to the early season circuit where he has acquitted himself quite well, winning over 20f at Aintree at the end of October and matched that lto when a staying on 4th at Newbury; young enough to still have improvement left and not without a chance with young conditional booked.
There has been a change in the market and the early favourite Shang Tang is taking a walk south to be replaced by Mario De Pail; interesting turn of events. However, The one I rather fancy is the Paul Nicholls horse, Southfield Harvest. Very lightly raced, he could well add to his score here. Jacmar is a speculative selection, and the n best I can hope for him is 4th. So mu three are Southfield Harvest from Mario Fe Pail and Shang Tan.
Wetherby 14.05 Gr 3 Handicap Chase 171 (141.7) 24f sf – 9 Run
Last year – 236 (142.8) sf – 10 ran
Top Ville Ben 3/1 F 7-11-11 (154) by 8 l from Didero Vallis 5/1 6-9-10 (132)
Guitar Pete 7/1 9-10-12 (141) was 40.8 l last of 7 finishers
Spiritofthegames 8-11-12 (148) (M 2.2)
’19/20 record: 0/2/5 Best: 290.6 off 140 carrying 11-7 (Gr 3 HCh 20.5f sf Chelt)
‘20/21 record: 0/1/1 Best: 291.9 off 148 carrying 11-2 (Gr 3 HCh 20f sf Chelt)
14/11/20 Gr 3 HCh 20f sf Chelt (740/147.1) 11-2 14/1 2/16 3.25 l off 148
held up in rear, mistake 5th, headway before 3 out, left 2nd 2 out, every chance last, edged right flat, held inside final 100 yards
Plus: class (F); going (Wh); form run lto (42 days);
Minus: distance (?); course (?); up 10lbs (wt);
Verdict: ran with his usual promise lto in Gr 3 at Cheltenham, but was held in final 110 yds; this usually the way as only chase win came back in Oct 2018 in a Listed Nov Ch over 19.5f at Chepstow; has never tried beyond 20.5f so quite a step up in trip with top weight; could be what he’s looking for, but with strike rate at less than 10% not for me.
Canelo 7-11-6 (142) (15.2)
‘19/20 record: 1/1/4 Best: 247.2 off 125 carrying 11-12 (Cl 2 HCh 20f hv Hunt
‘20/21 record: 1/1/3 Best: 268.5 off 138 carrying 11-9 (Cl 2 HCh 22.5f gd Newb
28/11/20 Cl 2 HCh (188/134.7) 22.5f gd Newb 11-9 8/1 2/16 4.25 l off 138
held up towards rear of mid-division on inside, headway 12th, kept on run-in, went 2nd near finish, no chance with winner
Plus: going (F); form run lto (28 days); down 3lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); distance; course (?); up 4lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: finished L/11 on only try at 24f in February, but has improved for the fitting of cheekpieces the last two starts, when winning a Cl3 NHCh over 20f on gd/sf at Aintree, and improved when staying on in a Cl2 HCh over22.5f at Newbury; raised 4lbs for that, but is rising in both class and distance.
Wandrin Star 9-11-5 (141) (15.3)
‘19/20 record: 1/0/3 Best: 269.9 off 135 carrying 11-7 (Cl 3 HCh 26.5f gd Winc)
‘20/21 record: 0/1/1 Best: 267.4 off 137 carrying 11-12 (Cl 3 HCh 24f sf Ascot)
20/11/20 Cl 3 HCh (97130.5) 24f sf Ascot 11-12 18/1 2/11 0.1 l off 137
prominent, nudged along to hold position 3 out, headway to join leaders after last, ran on well, just denied
Plus: going (W); distance (W); form run lto (36 days); down 7lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 4lbs (OR); up 2 classes;
Verdict: ran a good race on return from wind surgery and although he’s never won above Cl 3 before, he possibly could be a threat if building on Ascot return.
Snow Leopardess 8-10-13 (135) (17.2)
‘20/21 1/0/3 Best: 259.5 off 126 carrying 10-10 (Cl 2 HCh 25.5 sf Hayd)
21/11/20 Cl 2 HCh (251/133.5) 25.5 sf Hayd 10-10 9/2 F 1/12 0.5 l off 126
held up in touch, not fluent 4th, blundered 14th, headway under pressure 4 out, moved into 2nd before 2 out, stayed on strongly from last, got up final strides
Plus: class (Wh); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (35 days);
Minus: course; up 4lbs (wt); up 9lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: Gr 2 winner over hurdles and has only had 3 starts over fences, and although a bit novice with his jumping stayed on resolutely to win over 24.5f at Haydock; raised 9lbs for that, but there should be much more to come providing he pouts in a clear round.
Springtown Lake 8-11-5 (141)
‘19/20 record: 1/1/5 Best: 272.1 off 135 carrying 10-12 (Cl 2 HCh 20f hv Warw)
’20/21 record: 0/1/2 Best: 271.8 off 142 carrying 11-5 (Cl 2 HCh 20f gd/sf Aint)
06/12/20 Cl 2 HCh (396/138.4) 21f sf Aint 11-2 11/2 5/18 16.75 l off 142
towards rear, mistake 2nd, bad blunder 9th, headway chasing leaders after 3 out, weakened next
07/11/20 Cl 2 HCh (198/137.8) 20f gd/sf Aint 11-5 9/2 2/8 8l off 142
chased leader, pushed along 4 out, pecked 3 out, no impression on winner last, kept on
Plus: going (W); recent run (21 days); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: class; distance; course (?); up in class;
Verdict: was 9th to Simply The Betts in this class at Cheltenham in March, and similarly failed at 24f earlier in his chasing career; inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt lto, for the mistakes would have taken a lot out of him when 16.75l 5/16 to Beau Bay (-14) at Aintree and meets him on 8lbs better terms today; interesting tried at 24f again, and maybe in with a chance in first-time cheekpieces.
A competitive field and you can only rule out Guitar Pete at the first get go. The other 10yo, The Dutchman can also go as they don’t win too often and has generally preferred hv ground throughout his career. Nor am I too fond of Aintree winner Beau Bay back facing normal fences and up 7lbs, especially for a 9yo. Top weight Spiritofthe games flatters to deceive having won only one of his 11 starts over fences and I fear it may be more of the same today, especially as he’s never tried this far before. Wandrin Star has done well enough in lower class but has had a wind operation. Nevertheless, the step up from Cl 3 will likely be too much for him. I’m intrigued by Springtown Lake back at 24f, and maybe this time it won’t prove too far, but he’ll have to put in a clear round. Canelo is an improving sort and could improve more for the step up to 24f. however, the one to watch is Snow Leopardess despite having a hard race lto, He showed enough in winning there to give him a favourite’s chance of taking this which I expect him to do from Canelo with perhaps Springtown Lake holding off Wandrin Star for 3rd.
Wincanton 14.55 Cl 2 Handicap Hurdle 94 (127.8) 21.5f sf – 10 Run (9 at best)
Last year – 136 (131.1) hv – 8 ran
Third Wind 11/2 5-11-3 (137) by 1.25 l from Jatiluwih 5/2 Jt F 5-11-9 (146)
Duc De Beauchene 9/2 6-10-9 (129) was 17.25 l 7th
Shang Tang 6-11-4 (130) (3.8?)
‘19/20 record: 0/2/4
’20/21 record: 1/1/2 Best: 243.6 off 126 carrying 11-8 (Cl 3 HHd 19.5 sf Weth)
21/11/20 Cl 2 NHd (120/) 21.5 sf Ascot 10-12 9/4 1/4 3 l off 127
raced wider that rivals, soon 2nd, led 2 out, stayed on, ridden out
31/10/20 Cl 3 HHd (65/124.6) 19.5f sf Weth 11-8 11/1 3/18 7 l off 126
midfield, headway before 3 out, almost upsides 2 out, ridden before last, kept on down far rail flat
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (F); form run lto (35 days);
Minus: course (?); up 6lbs (wt); up 3lbd (OR);
Verdict: improved for 2nd season over hurdles, being a decent 3/18 in a Cl 3 HHd on his return and followed that up by getting the better of Southfield Harvest (+5) in a Cl 2 NHd;
Meets SH on 8lbs worse terms, which should see them much closer.
Southfield Harvest 6-11-4 (130) (M 1.2?)
‘19/20 record: 1/1/2
’20/21 record: 0/1/1
21/11/20 Cl 2 NHd (120/) 21.5 sf Ascot 11-3 5/4 F 2/4 3 l off 127
led, slow 1st, headed 2 out, held from last, kept on
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (F); course (F); form run lto (35 days); down 2lbs (wt);
Minus: up 3lbs (OR);
Verdict: just the 3 starts over hurdles and put up a creditable effort behind Shang Tang (-5) over today’s distance at Ascot on his return; ridden by a conditional who has a good record for Nicholls, and will meet ST on 8lbs better terms; a likely contender.
Mario De Pail 5-11-12 (138) (6.6)
‘19/20 record: 1/1/3
‘20/21 record: 1/0/2 Best: 259.2 off 133 carrying 11-12 (Cl 3 HHd 19.5f sf Weth)
14/11/20 Cl 3 HHd (61/126.2) 19.5 sf Weth 11-12 13/8 F 1/10 0.5 l off 133
tracked leaders on inside, 2nd travelling well before 3 out, 1 length down when hit 2 out, ridden between last 2, challenged last, driven and sustained run to lead close home
Plus: going; form run lto (42 days); down 5lbs (wt);
Minus: class; distance (?); course (?); up 5lbs (OR);
Verdict: promising 5th in the Welsh Champion Hurdle on his return and followed it up with an impressive win in a Cl 3 at Wetherby; raised 5lbs for that but that offset by the claim of his conditional rider who does well for the stable; not tried the distance, but is a 5yo with a claim.
Jacmar 5-11-1 (127) (M 1.5)
‘19/20 record: 1/1/7 Best:
‘20/21 record: 1/0/6 Best: 256/6 off 122 carrying 10-0 (Cl 2 HHd 20f sf Aint)
28/11/20 Cl 2 HHd (162/134.5) 20.5f gd Newb 10-11 20/1 4/12 5.25 l off 127
held up in rear, headway on inside before the last, kept on run-in, nearest finish
Plus: class (W); going (W); course (W); form run lto (28 days);
Minus: distance; up 1lb (wt);
Verdict: has been kept mainly to the early season circuit where he has acquitted himself quite well, winning over 20f at Aintree at the end of October and matched that lto when a staying on 4th at Newbury; young enough to still have improvement left and not without a chance with young conditional booked.
There has been a change in the market and the early favourite Shang Tang is taking a walk south to be replaced by Mario De Pail; interesting turn of events. However, The one I rather fancy is the Paul Nicholls horse, Southfield Harvest. Very lightly raced, he could well add to his score here. Jacmar is a speculative selection, and the n best I can hope for him is 4th. So mu three are Southfield Harvest from Mario Fe Pail and Shang Tan.