Post by Old Timer on Dec 12, 2020 10:39:38 GMT
Well, a change of luck yesterday, even if I did get them the wrong way round. Let’s hope the luck continues today.
Cheltenham 13.15 Cl 2 Handicap Chase 159 (145.0) 16.5 sf – 9 Ran
Last year – 188 (142.0) sf – 8 ran
Northern Beau 12/1 6-10-0 (125) by 2.25 l from Eamon An Cnoic 5/1 5-10-10 (135)
Capeland 8-11-3 (150) (3.1)
‘19/20 record 1/0/4 Best: 287.2 off 143 carrying 10-13 (Cl 2 HCh 17f sf Ascot)
‘20/21 record: 0/1/1 Best: 291.9 off 150 carrying 11-3 (Cl 2 HCh 17f sf Ascot)
21/11/20 Cl 2 HCh (156/147.1) 17f sf Ascot 11-3 11/2 3/8 5.25 l off 150
mid-division, headway 7th, challenged 2 out, soon led, headed last, no extra final 100 yards
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: course;
Verdict: finished 2l ahead of stable mate Magic Saint and meets him on the same terms today; seems to prefer Ascot to Cheltenham though.
Magic Saint 8-11-12 (159) (5.1)
‘19/20 record: 1/0/3 Best: 285.3 off 147 carrying 11-9 (Cl 2 HCh 16.5f gd/sf Newb)
‘20/21 record: 1/0/3 Best: 208.9 off 159 carrying 11-9 ((Cl 2 HCh 17f sf Ascot)
21/11/20 Cl 2 HCh (156/147.1) 17f sf Ascot 11-9 11/4 F 4/8 7.25 l off 159
chased leaders, led when mistake 2 out, soon headed, no extra flat
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: going;
Verdict: just a suspicion he prefers slightly better ground, never having won on worse than gd/sf; looks like he lucked out today.
Ibleo 7-10-4 (137) (14.8)
‘19/20 record: 2/1/3 Best: 248.5 off 131 carrying 12-4 (Cl 3 HCh 20f hv Hunt)
‘20/21 record: 0/1/1 Best: 261.2 off 132 carrying 10-8 (List HCh 17f sf Ascot)
31/10/20 List HcCh (142/135.3) 17f sf Ascot 10-8 5/2 F 2/7 0.05 l off 132
towards rear, blundered 6th, headway 4 out, challenged 3 out, led next, joined flat, headed close home
Plus: class (F+); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (42 days); down in class (??); down 4lbs (wt);
Minus: course (?); up 5lbs (OR);
Verdict: won a pair of Cl 2 NHCh at the turn of the year having been off since Oct 2017, and finished 2nd over 20f with a welter burden to end the season; only just beaten on return in October in a List HCh at Ascot; raised 5lbs for that, but actually carries less weight; liable to progress but first try at Cheltenham fences.
Zanza 6-10-12 (145) (12.7)
‘20/21 record: 1/1/3 Best: 277.3 off 138 carrying 11-3 (Cl 2 HCh 16.5f gd Newb)
28/11/20 Cl 2 HCh (189/139.3) 16.5f gd Newb 11-3 5/2 1/7 5.5 l off 138
jumped right at times, held up in 5th, left 4th and slightly hampered 2nd, left 3rd at 5th, went 2nd next, left in lead 8th, made rest, clear before 2 out, stayed on well
Plus: class (W); going (Wh); distance (W); form run lto (14 days); down 5lbs (wt);
Minus: course (?); up 7lbs (OR);
Verdict: just the 3 chase starts and although he won lto it wasn’t a flawless performance; doubtless will improve and if he does act of the ground could be in the mix.
Interesting little race, although Sky Pirate is a deliberate miss as he has so far flattered to deceive over fences. With a question about the ground for Magic Saint, I’ve got to go with the crowd and plump for Ibleo from Zanza and Capeland.
Cheltenham 13.50 Gr 3 Handicap Chase 598 (144.6) 20.5d sf – 17 Ran
Last year – 732 (143.3) 20.5f sf – 13 ran
Warthog 7/1 7-10-3 (132) by 0.1 l from Spiritofthegames 40/1 7-11-3 (146)
Cepage 5/1 F 7-11-12 (155) was 2.6 l 4th
Al Dancer 7-11-9 (154) (1.7)
‘19/20 record: 1/2/5
‘20/21 record: 1/1/2 Best: 296.9 off 154 carrying 11-8 (Gr 3 HCh 20f sf Chelt)
14/11/20 Gr 3 HCh (740/147.1) 20f sf Chelt 11-8 5/1 3/16 4.25 l off 154
mid-division, not fluent 6th,, headway 11th, went 2nd 3 out until before 2 out, 4th when pecked last, went 3rd towards finish, kept on, no impression on winner
Plus: class (F); going (Wh); distance (F); course (W); form run lto (28 days);
Minus: up 1lb (wt);
Verdict: showed he could cope with a big field in the Paddy Power lto when 4.25l 3rd to Coole Cody (-17); earlier he had given Master Tommytucker 6lbs and a 2.75l beating at Newton Abbot; 4lbs better off with CC today and receives 3lbs from MT; proven over the fences and a prime contender.
Coole Cody 9-10-12 (143)
’20/21 record: 2/2/4 Best: 284.1 off 137 carrying 10-5 (Gr 3 HCh 20f sf Chelt)
14/11/20 Gr 3 HCh (740/147.1) 20f sf Chelt 10-5 10/1 1/16 3.3 l off 137
prominent, led 3rd, sprawled badly on landing 4th, clear before 6th, not fluent 11th, reduced lead after 4 out, mistake 3 out, pressed from 2 out, edged right flat, stayed on well and in command final 100 yards
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (28 days);
Minus: up 7lns (wt); up 6lbs (OR);
Verdict: won 2 of 4 chases returning to the larger obstacles this season after finding them too tough in 2 starts in 2018; won the Paddy Power on his hcap debut and although he’s 4lbs worse off with Al Dancer he’s likely to give it a shot again.
Ceepage 8-11-10 (155) (3.5)
‘19/20 record: 1/1/5 Best: 296.1 off 154 carrying 11-12 (Gr 3 HCh 20,5f sf Chelt)
10/03/20 Gr 3 HCh (619/144) 25f sf Chelt 11-8 14/1 7/23 10.5 l off 155
in touch, headway to lead after 8th, headed narrowly 2 out, soon ridden, lost place after last, weakened closing stages
25/01/20 Gr 3 HCh (394/142.1) 20.5f sf Chelt 11-12 8/1 1/10 0.5 l off 154
left in lead after 1st, headed 6th, led next, headed before 9th, led 10th, hard pressed from 2 out, driven flat, held rivals most gamely towards finish
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W);
Minus: 277-day break; up 2lbs (wt);
Verdict: was 4th last year carrying 2lbs more off the same mark and went on to win over C&D in January, likely found the distance stretching him a bit in the Ultima and returns to his favoured distance for his return; that’s the drawback, as the last time the winner won on his season’s debut was back in 2007, and even though he goes well fresh, that is a big minus.
This of course has many horses making their handicap debut and as such I can’t rate them. However, among those I can’t fancy top weight Master Tommytucker, whose trying to win with a record 11-12 (4lbs more than he’s ever carried), facing more than his 7 runners max, and has fallen twice in 7 starts, and that’s without ever trying Cheltenham’s fences, He might win, but wouldn’t be carrying my money. Saint Sonnet was beaten when he fell at the last in the Paddy Power, so I can’t have him, thus by default, the best of Nicholls entries may be Southfield Stone. Nor would I put anyone off Windsor Avenue. However, in a race where favourites win about as often as seasonal debutants, I’m going for Coole Cody to hold off Al Dancer and Ceepage.
Cheltenham 13.15 Cl 2 Handicap Chase 159 (145.0) 16.5 sf – 9 Ran
Last year – 188 (142.0) sf – 8 ran
Northern Beau 12/1 6-10-0 (125) by 2.25 l from Eamon An Cnoic 5/1 5-10-10 (135)
Capeland 8-11-3 (150) (3.1)
‘19/20 record 1/0/4 Best: 287.2 off 143 carrying 10-13 (Cl 2 HCh 17f sf Ascot)
‘20/21 record: 0/1/1 Best: 291.9 off 150 carrying 11-3 (Cl 2 HCh 17f sf Ascot)
21/11/20 Cl 2 HCh (156/147.1) 17f sf Ascot 11-3 11/2 3/8 5.25 l off 150
mid-division, headway 7th, challenged 2 out, soon led, headed last, no extra final 100 yards
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: course;
Verdict: finished 2l ahead of stable mate Magic Saint and meets him on the same terms today; seems to prefer Ascot to Cheltenham though.
Magic Saint 8-11-12 (159) (5.1)
‘19/20 record: 1/0/3 Best: 285.3 off 147 carrying 11-9 (Cl 2 HCh 16.5f gd/sf Newb)
‘20/21 record: 1/0/3 Best: 208.9 off 159 carrying 11-9 ((Cl 2 HCh 17f sf Ascot)
21/11/20 Cl 2 HCh (156/147.1) 17f sf Ascot 11-9 11/4 F 4/8 7.25 l off 159
chased leaders, led when mistake 2 out, soon headed, no extra flat
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: going;
Verdict: just a suspicion he prefers slightly better ground, never having won on worse than gd/sf; looks like he lucked out today.
Ibleo 7-10-4 (137) (14.8)
‘19/20 record: 2/1/3 Best: 248.5 off 131 carrying 12-4 (Cl 3 HCh 20f hv Hunt)
‘20/21 record: 0/1/1 Best: 261.2 off 132 carrying 10-8 (List HCh 17f sf Ascot)
31/10/20 List HcCh (142/135.3) 17f sf Ascot 10-8 5/2 F 2/7 0.05 l off 132
towards rear, blundered 6th, headway 4 out, challenged 3 out, led next, joined flat, headed close home
Plus: class (F+); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (42 days); down in class (??); down 4lbs (wt);
Minus: course (?); up 5lbs (OR);
Verdict: won a pair of Cl 2 NHCh at the turn of the year having been off since Oct 2017, and finished 2nd over 20f with a welter burden to end the season; only just beaten on return in October in a List HCh at Ascot; raised 5lbs for that, but actually carries less weight; liable to progress but first try at Cheltenham fences.
Zanza 6-10-12 (145) (12.7)
‘20/21 record: 1/1/3 Best: 277.3 off 138 carrying 11-3 (Cl 2 HCh 16.5f gd Newb)
28/11/20 Cl 2 HCh (189/139.3) 16.5f gd Newb 11-3 5/2 1/7 5.5 l off 138
jumped right at times, held up in 5th, left 4th and slightly hampered 2nd, left 3rd at 5th, went 2nd next, left in lead 8th, made rest, clear before 2 out, stayed on well
Plus: class (W); going (Wh); distance (W); form run lto (14 days); down 5lbs (wt);
Minus: course (?); up 7lbs (OR);
Verdict: just the 3 chase starts and although he won lto it wasn’t a flawless performance; doubtless will improve and if he does act of the ground could be in the mix.
Interesting little race, although Sky Pirate is a deliberate miss as he has so far flattered to deceive over fences. With a question about the ground for Magic Saint, I’ve got to go with the crowd and plump for Ibleo from Zanza and Capeland.
Cheltenham 13.50 Gr 3 Handicap Chase 598 (144.6) 20.5d sf – 17 Ran
Last year – 732 (143.3) 20.5f sf – 13 ran
Warthog 7/1 7-10-3 (132) by 0.1 l from Spiritofthegames 40/1 7-11-3 (146)
Cepage 5/1 F 7-11-12 (155) was 2.6 l 4th
Al Dancer 7-11-9 (154) (1.7)
‘19/20 record: 1/2/5
‘20/21 record: 1/1/2 Best: 296.9 off 154 carrying 11-8 (Gr 3 HCh 20f sf Chelt)
14/11/20 Gr 3 HCh (740/147.1) 20f sf Chelt 11-8 5/1 3/16 4.25 l off 154
mid-division, not fluent 6th,, headway 11th, went 2nd 3 out until before 2 out, 4th when pecked last, went 3rd towards finish, kept on, no impression on winner
Plus: class (F); going (Wh); distance (F); course (W); form run lto (28 days);
Minus: up 1lb (wt);
Verdict: showed he could cope with a big field in the Paddy Power lto when 4.25l 3rd to Coole Cody (-17); earlier he had given Master Tommytucker 6lbs and a 2.75l beating at Newton Abbot; 4lbs better off with CC today and receives 3lbs from MT; proven over the fences and a prime contender.
Coole Cody 9-10-12 (143)
’20/21 record: 2/2/4 Best: 284.1 off 137 carrying 10-5 (Gr 3 HCh 20f sf Chelt)
14/11/20 Gr 3 HCh (740/147.1) 20f sf Chelt 10-5 10/1 1/16 3.3 l off 137
prominent, led 3rd, sprawled badly on landing 4th, clear before 6th, not fluent 11th, reduced lead after 4 out, mistake 3 out, pressed from 2 out, edged right flat, stayed on well and in command final 100 yards
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (28 days);
Minus: up 7lns (wt); up 6lbs (OR);
Verdict: won 2 of 4 chases returning to the larger obstacles this season after finding them too tough in 2 starts in 2018; won the Paddy Power on his hcap debut and although he’s 4lbs worse off with Al Dancer he’s likely to give it a shot again.
Ceepage 8-11-10 (155) (3.5)
‘19/20 record: 1/1/5 Best: 296.1 off 154 carrying 11-12 (Gr 3 HCh 20,5f sf Chelt)
10/03/20 Gr 3 HCh (619/144) 25f sf Chelt 11-8 14/1 7/23 10.5 l off 155
in touch, headway to lead after 8th, headed narrowly 2 out, soon ridden, lost place after last, weakened closing stages
25/01/20 Gr 3 HCh (394/142.1) 20.5f sf Chelt 11-12 8/1 1/10 0.5 l off 154
left in lead after 1st, headed 6th, led next, headed before 9th, led 10th, hard pressed from 2 out, driven flat, held rivals most gamely towards finish
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W);
Minus: 277-day break; up 2lbs (wt);
Verdict: was 4th last year carrying 2lbs more off the same mark and went on to win over C&D in January, likely found the distance stretching him a bit in the Ultima and returns to his favoured distance for his return; that’s the drawback, as the last time the winner won on his season’s debut was back in 2007, and even though he goes well fresh, that is a big minus.
This of course has many horses making their handicap debut and as such I can’t rate them. However, among those I can’t fancy top weight Master Tommytucker, whose trying to win with a record 11-12 (4lbs more than he’s ever carried), facing more than his 7 runners max, and has fallen twice in 7 starts, and that’s without ever trying Cheltenham’s fences, He might win, but wouldn’t be carrying my money. Saint Sonnet was beaten when he fell at the last in the Paddy Power, so I can’t have him, thus by default, the best of Nicholls entries may be Southfield Stone. Nor would I put anyone off Windsor Avenue. However, in a race where favourites win about as often as seasonal debutants, I’m going for Coole Cody to hold off Al Dancer and Ceepage.