Post by Old Timer on Dec 5, 2020 10:50:28 GMT
Not doing too well at this NH lark, but it will turn some time – hopefully this week!
Aintree 13.30 Gr 3 Handicap Chase 674 (146.5) 26f sf – 15 Ran (14 at best)
Last year – 842 (144.1) sf – 18 ran
Walk In The Mill 8/1 9-10-8 (141) by 2.5 l from Kimberlite Candy 11/1 7-10-4 (137)
Le Breuil 14/1 7-11-3 (150) was 19.75 l 7th
Vieux Lion Rouge 10/1 10-10-12 (145) was 28.5 l 9th
Minellacelebration 25/1 9-10-6 (139) was 40,5 l 10th
Le Breuil 8-10-8 (141) (10.5)
’19/20 record: 0/0/4 Best: 274.4 off 150 carrying 11-3 (Gr 3 HcCh 26f sf Aint)
’20/21 record: 0/0/1 Best: 277.0 off 142 carrying 10-11 (Cl 2 HcCh 26f gd Kelso)
24 Oct 20 Cl 2 HcCh (159/140.0) 26f gd Kel 10-11 15/2 4/8 5 l off 142
hampered 1st, 2nd until next, 2nd again 5th, led 7th, headed 3 out, 4th and held from next, kept on flat
Plus: class (W+); going (W); distance (F); course (F); form run lto (42 days); down 3lbs (wt); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: up in class;
Verdict: won a Gr 2 NHc over 31.5f at Cheltenham at the ’18 Festival, which was his last success; however, was 7th in last year’s renewal here off 9lbs more and then was 5th the Kimberlite Candy (-1) in the International at Warwick in January, but never seen with a chance in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham; promising return at Kelso in October and will be a lot fitter today; a fair weight for an 8yo, and must stand a chance.
Smooth Stepper 11-10-8 (142) (6.4)
‘19/20 record: 1/1/3 Best: 282.1 off 136 carrying 10-0 (Gr 3 HcCh 28.5 hv Hayd)
‘20/21 record: 0/0/1 Best: 272.0 off 144 carrying 11-8 (Cl 2 HcCh 24f gd Sand)
08/11/20 Cl 2 HcCh (150/137.7) 24f gd Sand 11-8 50/1 5/10 9. 75 l off 144
towards rear, mistake 11h, not fluent 13th, niggled 4 out, pushed along 3 out, kept on gamely when held approaching last, weakened run-in
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); recent outing (27 days); down 14lbs (wt); down 2lbs (OR);
Minus: course; up in class;
Verdict: was a long price when wining in the mud at Haydock in February and seems to go well in such conditions, considering the conditions at Sandown, he went well on his return and will appreciate the softer ground today; however, support tempered by the fact that on both his starts at Aintree he’s been PU!
Walk In The Mill 10-11-2 (149) (10.4)
‘19/29 record: 1/1/3 Best: 185.1 off 141 carrying 10-0 (Gr 3 HcCh 26f sf Aint)
’20.21 record: 0/0/1
31/10/20 Gr 3 HcCh (456/146.2) 24f sf Ascot 11-1 50/1 7/14 28.75 l off 150
mid-division, driven 15th, effort 4 out, weakened after 3 out
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); recent outing (35 days); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: up 1lb (wt);
Verdict: winner of last 2 renewals off 137 and 141, this time he’s got an extra 8lbs to shoulder; not bothered about his run at Ascot as he obviously needs his first outing of the year; will give of his best as always and can’t see him out of the frame, but winning…..
Linking this to the usual happenings, we have a lot that fail to meet the criteria. Mr Pointment back in 2007 was the only 8yo to carry over 11-0, carrying 11-7 in fact, and that raises questions for Ramses De Teillee and Kimberlite Candy. Were that the only question I’d be inclined to ignore it but RDT has run twice this season and KC not at all. That’s rather going against the odds I feel. Coo Star Sivola could stage a comeback, but again was PU on his only visit here. So without being original, I’m going for Le Breuil from Walk In The Mill and perhaps Kimberlite Candy.
Aintree 15.15 Cl 2 Handicap Chase 396 (139.2) 21f sf – 19 Run (18 at best)
Last year – 385 (134.6) sf – 14 ran
Hogan’s Height 16/1 8-10-8 (134) by 17l from Wishfull Dreaming 25/1 8-10-1 (127)
Flying Angel 11/4 F 8-10-3 (143) was 22.2 l 4th
Didero Vallis 7/1 6-10-8 (134) was 24.2 l 5th
Touch Kick 6/1 8-10-13 (138) was 34.2 l 6th
Federici 14/1 10-10-0 (126) was PU before 2 out
Springtown Lake 8-11-2 (142) (9.4)
‘19/20 record: 1/1/5 Best: 272.1 off 135 carrying 10-12 (Cl 2 HcCh 20 hv Warw)
’20/21 record: 0/1/1 Best: 271.8 off 142 carrying 11-5 (Cl 2 HcCh 20f gd/sf Aint)
07/11/20 Cl 2 HcCh (198/137.8) 20f gd/sf Aint 11-5 9/2 2/8 8 l off 142
chased leader, pushed along 4 out, pecked 3 out, no impression on winner last, kept on
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (28 days); down 3lbs (wt);
Minus:
Verdict: very much at home on sf/hv ground and enjoys a 9lbs pull at the weights for the 8l Modus beat him last time; certainly has his preferred ground.
Modus 10-11-10 (150) (10.4)
‘20/21 record: 1/0/1 Best: 378.8 off 141 carrying 11-4 (Cl 2 HcCh 20f gd/sf Aint)
07/11/20 Cl 2 HcCh (198/137.8) 20f gd/sf Aint 11-4 13/2 1/8 8 l off 141
not fluent 1st, soon mid-division, closed 8th, went 2nd after 2 out, led before last, clear flat, easily
Plus: class (W); going (W)l distance (W)l course (W); form run lto (28 days);
Minus: up 6lbs (wt); up 9lbs (OR);
Verdict: returned from 465-day break to win over C&D by 8l from Springtown Lake; has been raised 9lbs for that but could make light of his load having won off 146 in the past.
Sametegal 11-11-2 (142) (5.5)
‘19/20 record: 0/2/3 Best: 284.0 off 141 carrying 10-8 (Gr 3 HcCh gd/sf Kemp)
‘20/21 record: 0/2/2 Best: 275.7 off 141 carrying 11-5 (Cl 2 HcCh 24f gd Sand)
08/11/20 Cl 2 Hcap (150/137.7) 24f gd Sand 11-5 7/2 F 3/10 3 l off 141
tracked leader, travelling well and every chance 2 out, made strong challenge last, stumbled last and no extra run-in
Plus: class (W+); going (F); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (28 days); down 3lbs (wt); down 1lb (OR);
Minus:
Verdict: hasn’t win since March ’16 over 20f at Newbury, but generally has been running over further in recent times and makes the frame a lot more than he wins.
Again the need for a recent run stands out, with just 3 winners not having one in the last 17 years. Another anomaly too, although two 6yo have won it a 7yo never has in that time frame, 8/9yo being favoured along with 4 older horses. So my suggestions here are Springtown Lake who will the 9lbs handy in turning the table on Modus, while the veteran Sametegal might fill out the frame.
Aintree 13.30 Gr 3 Handicap Chase 674 (146.5) 26f sf – 15 Ran (14 at best)
Last year – 842 (144.1) sf – 18 ran
Walk In The Mill 8/1 9-10-8 (141) by 2.5 l from Kimberlite Candy 11/1 7-10-4 (137)
Le Breuil 14/1 7-11-3 (150) was 19.75 l 7th
Vieux Lion Rouge 10/1 10-10-12 (145) was 28.5 l 9th
Minellacelebration 25/1 9-10-6 (139) was 40,5 l 10th
Le Breuil 8-10-8 (141) (10.5)
’19/20 record: 0/0/4 Best: 274.4 off 150 carrying 11-3 (Gr 3 HcCh 26f sf Aint)
’20/21 record: 0/0/1 Best: 277.0 off 142 carrying 10-11 (Cl 2 HcCh 26f gd Kelso)
24 Oct 20 Cl 2 HcCh (159/140.0) 26f gd Kel 10-11 15/2 4/8 5 l off 142
hampered 1st, 2nd until next, 2nd again 5th, led 7th, headed 3 out, 4th and held from next, kept on flat
Plus: class (W+); going (W); distance (F); course (F); form run lto (42 days); down 3lbs (wt); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: up in class;
Verdict: won a Gr 2 NHc over 31.5f at Cheltenham at the ’18 Festival, which was his last success; however, was 7th in last year’s renewal here off 9lbs more and then was 5th the Kimberlite Candy (-1) in the International at Warwick in January, but never seen with a chance in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham; promising return at Kelso in October and will be a lot fitter today; a fair weight for an 8yo, and must stand a chance.
Smooth Stepper 11-10-8 (142) (6.4)
‘19/20 record: 1/1/3 Best: 282.1 off 136 carrying 10-0 (Gr 3 HcCh 28.5 hv Hayd)
‘20/21 record: 0/0/1 Best: 272.0 off 144 carrying 11-8 (Cl 2 HcCh 24f gd Sand)
08/11/20 Cl 2 HcCh (150/137.7) 24f gd Sand 11-8 50/1 5/10 9. 75 l off 144
towards rear, mistake 11h, not fluent 13th, niggled 4 out, pushed along 3 out, kept on gamely when held approaching last, weakened run-in
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); recent outing (27 days); down 14lbs (wt); down 2lbs (OR);
Minus: course; up in class;
Verdict: was a long price when wining in the mud at Haydock in February and seems to go well in such conditions, considering the conditions at Sandown, he went well on his return and will appreciate the softer ground today; however, support tempered by the fact that on both his starts at Aintree he’s been PU!
Walk In The Mill 10-11-2 (149) (10.4)
‘19/29 record: 1/1/3 Best: 185.1 off 141 carrying 10-0 (Gr 3 HcCh 26f sf Aint)
’20.21 record: 0/0/1
31/10/20 Gr 3 HcCh (456/146.2) 24f sf Ascot 11-1 50/1 7/14 28.75 l off 150
mid-division, driven 15th, effort 4 out, weakened after 3 out
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); recent outing (35 days); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: up 1lb (wt);
Verdict: winner of last 2 renewals off 137 and 141, this time he’s got an extra 8lbs to shoulder; not bothered about his run at Ascot as he obviously needs his first outing of the year; will give of his best as always and can’t see him out of the frame, but winning…..
Linking this to the usual happenings, we have a lot that fail to meet the criteria. Mr Pointment back in 2007 was the only 8yo to carry over 11-0, carrying 11-7 in fact, and that raises questions for Ramses De Teillee and Kimberlite Candy. Were that the only question I’d be inclined to ignore it but RDT has run twice this season and KC not at all. That’s rather going against the odds I feel. Coo Star Sivola could stage a comeback, but again was PU on his only visit here. So without being original, I’m going for Le Breuil from Walk In The Mill and perhaps Kimberlite Candy.
Aintree 15.15 Cl 2 Handicap Chase 396 (139.2) 21f sf – 19 Run (18 at best)
Last year – 385 (134.6) sf – 14 ran
Hogan’s Height 16/1 8-10-8 (134) by 17l from Wishfull Dreaming 25/1 8-10-1 (127)
Flying Angel 11/4 F 8-10-3 (143) was 22.2 l 4th
Didero Vallis 7/1 6-10-8 (134) was 24.2 l 5th
Touch Kick 6/1 8-10-13 (138) was 34.2 l 6th
Federici 14/1 10-10-0 (126) was PU before 2 out
Springtown Lake 8-11-2 (142) (9.4)
‘19/20 record: 1/1/5 Best: 272.1 off 135 carrying 10-12 (Cl 2 HcCh 20 hv Warw)
’20/21 record: 0/1/1 Best: 271.8 off 142 carrying 11-5 (Cl 2 HcCh 20f gd/sf Aint)
07/11/20 Cl 2 HcCh (198/137.8) 20f gd/sf Aint 11-5 9/2 2/8 8 l off 142
chased leader, pushed along 4 out, pecked 3 out, no impression on winner last, kept on
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (28 days); down 3lbs (wt);
Minus:
Verdict: very much at home on sf/hv ground and enjoys a 9lbs pull at the weights for the 8l Modus beat him last time; certainly has his preferred ground.
Modus 10-11-10 (150) (10.4)
‘20/21 record: 1/0/1 Best: 378.8 off 141 carrying 11-4 (Cl 2 HcCh 20f gd/sf Aint)
07/11/20 Cl 2 HcCh (198/137.8) 20f gd/sf Aint 11-4 13/2 1/8 8 l off 141
not fluent 1st, soon mid-division, closed 8th, went 2nd after 2 out, led before last, clear flat, easily
Plus: class (W); going (W)l distance (W)l course (W); form run lto (28 days);
Minus: up 6lbs (wt); up 9lbs (OR);
Verdict: returned from 465-day break to win over C&D by 8l from Springtown Lake; has been raised 9lbs for that but could make light of his load having won off 146 in the past.
Sametegal 11-11-2 (142) (5.5)
‘19/20 record: 0/2/3 Best: 284.0 off 141 carrying 10-8 (Gr 3 HcCh gd/sf Kemp)
‘20/21 record: 0/2/2 Best: 275.7 off 141 carrying 11-5 (Cl 2 HcCh 24f gd Sand)
08/11/20 Cl 2 Hcap (150/137.7) 24f gd Sand 11-5 7/2 F 3/10 3 l off 141
tracked leader, travelling well and every chance 2 out, made strong challenge last, stumbled last and no extra run-in
Plus: class (W+); going (F); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (28 days); down 3lbs (wt); down 1lb (OR);
Minus:
Verdict: hasn’t win since March ’16 over 20f at Newbury, but generally has been running over further in recent times and makes the frame a lot more than he wins.
Again the need for a recent run stands out, with just 3 winners not having one in the last 17 years. Another anomaly too, although two 6yo have won it a 7yo never has in that time frame, 8/9yo being favoured along with 4 older horses. So my suggestions here are Springtown Lake who will the 9lbs handy in turning the table on Modus, while the veteran Sametegal might fill out the frame.