Post by Old Timer on Nov 28, 2020 10:51:45 GMT
Got a little lucky yesterday, but that’s the way it does. Just the one race today, as there were a whole lot to consider and pass on. See if my luck holds today.
Newbury 15.00 Gr 3 Handicap Chase 1138 (149.6) 26f gd – 18 Run
Last year – 1424 (147.8) gd/sf 24 Ran
De Rasher Counter 12/1 7-10-10 (149) by 1.5 l from The Conditional 20/1 7-10-3 (137)
Beware The Bear 25/1 9-11-10 (158) was 2.25 l 4th
Mister Malarky 14/1 6-10-13 (150) was 11.25 l 6th
Regal Encore 25/1 11-10-9 (143) PU before 4 out
Secret Investor 8-11-9 (159) (10.2)
’19/20 record: 0/1/3
’20/21 record: 1/0/1 Best: 298.4 off 153 carrying 11-2 (Cl 2 HcCh 23.5f gd Chep)
10/10/20 Cl 2 Hcap Chase (158/145.4) 23.5f gd Chep 11-2 11/4 F 1/7 7 l off 153
led, jumped right 4 out, extended lead under pressure before last, ran on strongly
Plus: class (W+); going (W); distance (F); course (F); recent form run (49 days);
Minus: up in class; up 7lbs (wt); up 6lbs (OR);
Verdict: being slowly brought along and began the season with an emphatic victory at Chepstow from the Potterman, which the latter franked by only just going down by the narrowest of margins in the Badgers
Kildisart 8-11-5 (155) (10.8)
‘19/20 record: 0/1/5 Best: 293.8 off 150 carrying 11-3 (Gr 3 HcCh 25f sf Chelt)
’20/21 record: 0/1/2
31/10/20 Gr 2 Hdl (199/) 24f sf Weth 11-0 9/1 3/9 11.5 l off 149
midfield, headway to chase leaders 3 out, ridden and close up before 2 out, outpaced before last, faded flat
10/03/20 Gr 3 Hcap (919/144.0) 25f sf Chelt 11-3 10/1 2/23 0.25l off 150
tracked leaders, driven after 3 out, every chance last, ridden and stayed on to press winner towards finish, just held
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); recent form run (28 days); revert to chase;
Minus: course (?); up 2lbs (wt); up 5lbs (OR);
Verdict: fitting of cheek pieces on final outing last year saw him just beaten 0.25l by The Conditional (-11) in the Ultra with Vinndication (+9) 2.5l away in 4th, giving indications of weakening late on; in 3lbs better off with The Conditional (who hasn’t had a run this season) and 3lbs worse off with Vinndication; swerved the competitive Charlie Hall on his reappearance in favour of a Gr 2 hurdle at Wetherby, in which he acquitted himself quite well until condition told; should be in fine condition today, and has won of gd before; onky negative is that he’s never run at Newbury.
Potterman 7-10-6 (142) (11.5)
‘19/20 record: 3/1/6
‘20/21 record: 1/2/5 Best: 280.1 off 142 carrying 11-8 (List HcCh 25f gd Winc)
07/11/29 List HcCh (273/138.2) 25f gd Winc 11-8 10/1 2/13 0.05 l off 142
mid-division, pushed along before 4 out, left in 5th place next, stayed on from next, kept on well run-in to lead final 125 yards, headed final stride
Plus: going (W); distance (F); course (Fh); recent form run (21 days); down 16lbs (wt);
Minus: class; up in class;
Verdict: definitely a gd ground chaser and coming to the end of his summer season, but has hit form of late being 7l runner-up to Secret Investor (+11) and then just getting caught on the line by El Presente in the Badgers at Wincanton; escapes any rise in mark for that and meets Secret Investor on 7lbs better terms, too long a price for his chances.
A cracking handicap with a load of fancied horses, but I’m ignoring those without a current season run even though last year’s 2nd and 3rd, The Conditional and the aptly-named Beware The Bear go out. I’m also ignoring those that ran in the Charlie Hall, as it’s never been a good trial for this and looked a tough race this year and being run on sf, is hardly a useful yardstick. That sees the departure of Vinndication, Aye Right, La Bague Au Roi and Ballyoptic. Then the good going will catch a few more out.
My shortlist is hardly original, but I have to go with Secret Investor from Kildisart with Potterman holding off Two For Gold.
Newbury 15.00 Gr 3 Handicap Chase 1138 (149.6) 26f gd – 18 Run
Last year – 1424 (147.8) gd/sf 24 Ran
De Rasher Counter 12/1 7-10-10 (149) by 1.5 l from The Conditional 20/1 7-10-3 (137)
Beware The Bear 25/1 9-11-10 (158) was 2.25 l 4th
Mister Malarky 14/1 6-10-13 (150) was 11.25 l 6th
Regal Encore 25/1 11-10-9 (143) PU before 4 out
Secret Investor 8-11-9 (159) (10.2)
’19/20 record: 0/1/3
’20/21 record: 1/0/1 Best: 298.4 off 153 carrying 11-2 (Cl 2 HcCh 23.5f gd Chep)
10/10/20 Cl 2 Hcap Chase (158/145.4) 23.5f gd Chep 11-2 11/4 F 1/7 7 l off 153
led, jumped right 4 out, extended lead under pressure before last, ran on strongly
Plus: class (W+); going (W); distance (F); course (F); recent form run (49 days);
Minus: up in class; up 7lbs (wt); up 6lbs (OR);
Verdict: being slowly brought along and began the season with an emphatic victory at Chepstow from the Potterman, which the latter franked by only just going down by the narrowest of margins in the Badgers
Kildisart 8-11-5 (155) (10.8)
‘19/20 record: 0/1/5 Best: 293.8 off 150 carrying 11-3 (Gr 3 HcCh 25f sf Chelt)
’20/21 record: 0/1/2
31/10/20 Gr 2 Hdl (199/) 24f sf Weth 11-0 9/1 3/9 11.5 l off 149
midfield, headway to chase leaders 3 out, ridden and close up before 2 out, outpaced before last, faded flat
10/03/20 Gr 3 Hcap (919/144.0) 25f sf Chelt 11-3 10/1 2/23 0.25l off 150
tracked leaders, driven after 3 out, every chance last, ridden and stayed on to press winner towards finish, just held
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); recent form run (28 days); revert to chase;
Minus: course (?); up 2lbs (wt); up 5lbs (OR);
Verdict: fitting of cheek pieces on final outing last year saw him just beaten 0.25l by The Conditional (-11) in the Ultra with Vinndication (+9) 2.5l away in 4th, giving indications of weakening late on; in 3lbs better off with The Conditional (who hasn’t had a run this season) and 3lbs worse off with Vinndication; swerved the competitive Charlie Hall on his reappearance in favour of a Gr 2 hurdle at Wetherby, in which he acquitted himself quite well until condition told; should be in fine condition today, and has won of gd before; onky negative is that he’s never run at Newbury.
Potterman 7-10-6 (142) (11.5)
‘19/20 record: 3/1/6
‘20/21 record: 1/2/5 Best: 280.1 off 142 carrying 11-8 (List HcCh 25f gd Winc)
07/11/29 List HcCh (273/138.2) 25f gd Winc 11-8 10/1 2/13 0.05 l off 142
mid-division, pushed along before 4 out, left in 5th place next, stayed on from next, kept on well run-in to lead final 125 yards, headed final stride
Plus: going (W); distance (F); course (Fh); recent form run (21 days); down 16lbs (wt);
Minus: class; up in class;
Verdict: definitely a gd ground chaser and coming to the end of his summer season, but has hit form of late being 7l runner-up to Secret Investor (+11) and then just getting caught on the line by El Presente in the Badgers at Wincanton; escapes any rise in mark for that and meets Secret Investor on 7lbs better terms, too long a price for his chances.
A cracking handicap with a load of fancied horses, but I’m ignoring those without a current season run even though last year’s 2nd and 3rd, The Conditional and the aptly-named Beware The Bear go out. I’m also ignoring those that ran in the Charlie Hall, as it’s never been a good trial for this and looked a tough race this year and being run on sf, is hardly a useful yardstick. That sees the departure of Vinndication, Aye Right, La Bague Au Roi and Ballyoptic. Then the good going will catch a few more out.
My shortlist is hardly original, but I have to go with Secret Investor from Kildisart with Potterman holding off Two For Gold.