Post by Old Timer on Nov 27, 2020 12:23:29 GMT
No luck last weekend, so still searching for a winner.
Newbury 14.25 Cl 2 Handicap Chase 166 (142.6) 20f gd – 11 Run
Last year – 313 (145.6) 20f gd/sf – 12 ran
Oldgrangewood 6/1 8-10-6 (135) by 0.02 l from Kalashnikov 13/8 F 6-11-12 (155)
San Benedeto 14/1 8-11-9 (152) was 16.77 l 4th
Gala Ball 9/1 9-11-5 (148) was 70.27 l 12l
Clondaw Castle 8-11-8 (151) (-2.6)
‘19/20 record: 1/1/3 Best: 282.8 off 143 carrying 11-7 (Cl 2 HcCh 20f gd/sf Warw)
‘20/21 record: 0/1/1 Best: 296.2 off 149 carrying 11-4 (Gr 2 HcCh 20f sf Aint)
24/10/20 Gr 2 HcCh (360/148.7) 20f sf Aint 11-4 14/1 2/12 1.5 l off 148
held up towards rear, mistake 11th, headway on outside 4 out, challenged 2 out, led last, headed towards finish
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); recent form run (33 days); down 2 classes;
Minus: course; up 4lbs (wt); up 3lbs (OR);
Verdict: won over 20f at Warwick on final start last season; 2nd in the Old Roan at Aintree on his return 5.5l ahead of Oldgrangewood (-2) in 4th, both perhaps just needing the race; meets O on 2lbs worse terms and there shouldn’t be much between them.
Oldgrangewood 9-11-4 (147) (-1.7)
‘19/20 record: 2/1/4 Best: 291.3 off 142 carrying 10-7 (Gr 3 HcCh 20.5f sf Chelt)
‘20/21 record: 0/0/1 Best: 288.7 off 147 carrying 11-2 (Gr 2 HcCh 20f sf Aint)
24/10/20 Gr 2 HcCh (360/148.7) 20f sf Aint 11-2 13/2 4/12 7 l off 147
held up in rear, hampered 2nd, headway 9th, challenged 3 out, soon led, mistake and headed last, no extra flat
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); recent run (33 days); down 2 classes;
Minus: up 2lbs (wt);
Verdict: won this in ’17 off 147 but went on a winless streak until wind surgery saw him win it again last year off 135; won at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day and finished 3rd to Simply The Betts at the Festival; positive return at Aintree where a mistake and fitness told; should finish closer to Clondaw Castle this time.
Cepage 8-11-12 (155) (1.5)
’19/20 record 1/2/5 Best: 296 off 154 carrying 11-12 (Gr 3 HcCh 20.5f sf Chelt)
10/03/02 Gr 3 HcCh (619/144.0) 25f sf Chelt 11-8 14/1 7/23 10.5 l off 155
in touch, headway to lead after 8th, headed narrowly 2 out, soon ridden, lost place after last, weakened closing stages
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (W); down in class; down in trip (5f);
Minus: up 4lbs (wt); 262-days break;
Verdict: can go well fresh and has won on gd, but in general is better on sf after he’s had his initial outing.
Sully D’oc Aa 6-10-6 (135) (26.5)
‘19/20 record 0/1/3
‘20/21 record 1/0/1 Best: 251.1 off 125 carrying 10-8 (Cl 3 NovHcCh 18f gd/sf Asc)
31/10/20 Cl 3 NovHvCh (97/126.1) 19f gd/sf Ascot 10-8 9/2 1/8 4.75 l off 125
held up in mid-division, hit 6th, closed from next, went 2nd 9th, challenged 2 out, led last, in command flat, stayed on
Plus: course (F); recent form run (27 days); down 2lbs (wt);
Minus: class; going (?); distance; up 10lbs (OR);
Verdict: just a place from 3 starts over fences last year, but wind surgery between seasons saw him gain an easy victory in a Cl 3 novice hcap; from the market, further improvement expected.
Not many runners, but there’s a few that have a chance and besides the ones I’ve marked I’m intrigued to see why Nicholls is running San Benedeto. However, I’ll park that one alongside Cepage in the reserves. Sully D’Oc Aa could well show a deal of improvement having had a breathing operation over the summer, but I’m going with Clondaw Castle to edge him out and last year’s winner Oldgrangewood in 3rd.
Newbury 14.25 Cl 2 Handicap Chase 166 (142.6) 20f gd – 11 Run
Last year – 313 (145.6) 20f gd/sf – 12 ran
Oldgrangewood 6/1 8-10-6 (135) by 0.02 l from Kalashnikov 13/8 F 6-11-12 (155)
San Benedeto 14/1 8-11-9 (152) was 16.77 l 4th
Gala Ball 9/1 9-11-5 (148) was 70.27 l 12l
Clondaw Castle 8-11-8 (151) (-2.6)
‘19/20 record: 1/1/3 Best: 282.8 off 143 carrying 11-7 (Cl 2 HcCh 20f gd/sf Warw)
‘20/21 record: 0/1/1 Best: 296.2 off 149 carrying 11-4 (Gr 2 HcCh 20f sf Aint)
24/10/20 Gr 2 HcCh (360/148.7) 20f sf Aint 11-4 14/1 2/12 1.5 l off 148
held up towards rear, mistake 11th, headway on outside 4 out, challenged 2 out, led last, headed towards finish
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); recent form run (33 days); down 2 classes;
Minus: course; up 4lbs (wt); up 3lbs (OR);
Verdict: won over 20f at Warwick on final start last season; 2nd in the Old Roan at Aintree on his return 5.5l ahead of Oldgrangewood (-2) in 4th, both perhaps just needing the race; meets O on 2lbs worse terms and there shouldn’t be much between them.
Oldgrangewood 9-11-4 (147) (-1.7)
‘19/20 record: 2/1/4 Best: 291.3 off 142 carrying 10-7 (Gr 3 HcCh 20.5f sf Chelt)
‘20/21 record: 0/0/1 Best: 288.7 off 147 carrying 11-2 (Gr 2 HcCh 20f sf Aint)
24/10/20 Gr 2 HcCh (360/148.7) 20f sf Aint 11-2 13/2 4/12 7 l off 147
held up in rear, hampered 2nd, headway 9th, challenged 3 out, soon led, mistake and headed last, no extra flat
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); recent run (33 days); down 2 classes;
Minus: up 2lbs (wt);
Verdict: won this in ’17 off 147 but went on a winless streak until wind surgery saw him win it again last year off 135; won at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day and finished 3rd to Simply The Betts at the Festival; positive return at Aintree where a mistake and fitness told; should finish closer to Clondaw Castle this time.
Cepage 8-11-12 (155) (1.5)
’19/20 record 1/2/5 Best: 296 off 154 carrying 11-12 (Gr 3 HcCh 20.5f sf Chelt)
10/03/02 Gr 3 HcCh (619/144.0) 25f sf Chelt 11-8 14/1 7/23 10.5 l off 155
in touch, headway to lead after 8th, headed narrowly 2 out, soon ridden, lost place after last, weakened closing stages
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (W); down in class; down in trip (5f);
Minus: up 4lbs (wt); 262-days break;
Verdict: can go well fresh and has won on gd, but in general is better on sf after he’s had his initial outing.
Sully D’oc Aa 6-10-6 (135) (26.5)
‘19/20 record 0/1/3
‘20/21 record 1/0/1 Best: 251.1 off 125 carrying 10-8 (Cl 3 NovHcCh 18f gd/sf Asc)
31/10/20 Cl 3 NovHvCh (97/126.1) 19f gd/sf Ascot 10-8 9/2 1/8 4.75 l off 125
held up in mid-division, hit 6th, closed from next, went 2nd 9th, challenged 2 out, led last, in command flat, stayed on
Plus: course (F); recent form run (27 days); down 2lbs (wt);
Minus: class; going (?); distance; up 10lbs (OR);
Verdict: just a place from 3 starts over fences last year, but wind surgery between seasons saw him gain an easy victory in a Cl 3 novice hcap; from the market, further improvement expected.
Not many runners, but there’s a few that have a chance and besides the ones I’ve marked I’m intrigued to see why Nicholls is running San Benedeto. However, I’ll park that one alongside Cepage in the reserves. Sully D’Oc Aa could well show a deal of improvement having had a breathing operation over the summer, but I’m going with Clondaw Castle to edge him out and last year’s winner Oldgrangewood in 3rd.