Post by Old Timer on Nov 14, 2020 11:38:08 GMT
It’s a day for just watching I fear as there’s plenty of time to find winners. So speculative selections at best, especially as we have racing tomorrow!
Lingfield 12.45 Cl 2 Handicap 120 (95.3) 8f AW – 8 run
3yo = 2lbs wfa allowance
Oh This Is Us 7-9-10 (104) Dr 2 (1.4)
’19 record: 3/4/15
’20 record: 1/1/11 Best: 197.8 off 101 carrying 9-12 (Cl 2 Hcap 7f AW Chelm)
29/10/20 Cl 2 Hcap (120/98.4) 9-10 5/1 8/9 2.27 l off 105
in rear, pushed along 2f out, effort entering final furlong, no impression inside final furlong
Plus: class (W), AW (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (16); down 1lb (OR);
Minus:
Verdict: has raced mainly over 7f, but has won over 8f here. Jas to bounce back from disappointing run her lto.
Plantadream 5-9-1 (95) Dr 6 (9.3)
’20 record: 3/2/8 Best: 180.9 off 92 carrying 9-0 (Cl 2 Hcap 8f gd/sf Good)
09/10/20 Cl 2 Hcap (187/89.8) 8f sf York 9-1 14/1 5/20 3.5 l off 92
held up towards rear, pushed along over 2f out, headway over 1f out, not pace to get on terms
Plus: class (F); AW (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (36 days);
Minus: up 3lbs (OR);
Verdict: lightly raced for a 5yo and is 2/3 on the AW; was in good form on turf, but has yet to win in Cl 2.
Dashing Roger 3-9-0 (96) Dr 4 (9.8)
‘19 record: 1/3/5
‘20 record: 3/3/8 Best: 181.5 off 88 carrying 8-10 (Cl 2 Hcap 8f hv Leic)
26/10/20 Cl 2 Hcap (123/93.5) 8f hv Leic 8-10 7/2 Jt Fav 1/6 4.75 l off 88
raced wide close up, headway 3f out, led 2f out, pushed clear, eased close home
Plus: class (W); AW (W); course (W); form run lto (19 days);
Minus: up 4lbs (wt); up 8lbs (OR);
Verdict: in good form ad has won at Lingfield; however, is running off an 8lbs higher mark.
Early season for the AW and I don’t like applying turf form. However, I can’t trust On This Is Us so I’ll go for Dashing Roger to beat him with Plantadream in 3rd
Cheltenham 14.15 Gr 3 Handicap Chase 740 (146.8) 20f sf – 17 Run
Last year – 900 (142.9) sf – 17 ran
Happy Diva 14/1 8-11-0 (143) by 0.25 l from Brelan D’As 20/1 8-10-12 (138)
Siruh Du Lac 8/1 6-11-7 (150) was PU before 2 out
Spiritofthegames 8/1 7-11-10 (150) PU turning in
Slate House 4/1 F 7-11-7 (147) every chance when Fell 2 out
Too many horses with no handicap form and surely one of them will be in there somewhere. I’d have a small bet on Simply The Betts who could be a bit special, and when it gets soft it generally pays to look at Happy Diva e/w. However, nothing serious in this race as it’s potentially far too competitive for me.
Cheltenham 24.50 Listed Handicap Hurdle 137 (136.7) 24f sf – 12 Run (11 at best)
Last year – 225 (135.7) sf – 10 ran
Golan Fortune 14/1 7-10-0 (135) by 2.5 l from Eminent Poet 10/1 8-10-12 (140)
Tobefair 11/2 9-11-12 (154) was 4 l 3rd
Golan Fortune 8-10-5 (137) (3.2)
‘19/20 record: 1/0/4 Best: 270.7 off 135 carrying 10-0 (List HHd 24f sf Chelt)
‘20/21 record: 0/0/2 Best: 269.5 off 137 carrying 10-8 (Cl 2 HHd 14.5f gd/sf Aint)
07/11/20 Cl 2 HHd (94/135.7) 24.5f gd/sf Aint 10-8 4/1 4/12 3.25 l off 137
in touch on inside, not fluent 9th, ridden 2 out, mistake last, rider soon dropped whip, 4th and held final 150 yards, kept on
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (7 days); down 3lbs (wt);
Minus: up in class;
Verdict: won last year off 2lbs higher mark, and best effort since was at Aintree last weekend; the rain should bring no fears and as usual is ridden by his 7lbs claimer; only question is if the first-time fitting of a visor instead of his normal cheekpieces will do the trick.
Dell’ Arca 11-9-13 (131) (9.1)
‘19/20 record: 0/1/6 Best: 22.0 off 129 carrying 11-3 (Cl 2 HHd 24f gd Newb)
‘20/21 record: 2/1/5 Best: 9.1 off 125 carrying 10-3 (Cl 2 HHd 24 gd Mewb)
O5/11/20 Cl 2 HHd (97/132.6) 24f gd Newb 10-3 13/2 1/12 1.5 l off 125
chased leaders on inside, led 3 out, clear when went left next, hung left run-in, stayed on well
Plus: class (W+)*; going (W); distance (W); course (W)*; form run lto (9 days); down 4lbs (wt); [last class and course win was in Nov 2013!]
Minus: up 6lbs (OR); up class;
Verdict: has gained a new lease of life this season ridden by his 7lb claimer and back over hurdles with wins at Aintree and Newbury; hasn’t enjoyed much luck round here in recent years and he’s up in weight again.
Debestyman 7-10-0 (125) – 1lb out of handicap (11.9)
‘19/20 record: 1/0/6
‘20/21 record: 0/1/2 Best: 246.8 off 122 carrying 10-10 (Cl 3 HHd 21f gd Chelt)
23/10/20 Cl 3 HHd (95/128.8) 21f gd Chelt 10-10 28/1 2/19 2 l off 122
prominent, lost ground before 5th, progress to chase leaders 3 out, close up last, stayed on well under pressure run in
Plus: going (W); course (F); form run lto (22 days); down 10lbs (wt);
Minus: class; distance; up 3lbs (OR); up 2 classes; 1lb out of handicap;
Verdict: just the 6 starts over hurdles and only a single success to date, although looked likely to win a Listed HHd at Kempton when coming down at the last; yet to prove himself at the distance, but much better effort lto when staying on well over 21f here; going should be no problem.
With the removal of likely favourite Tea Clipper, it’s hard to find a firm selection. Dandy Man is really a chaser, so I’m discounting him from my considerations. The Irish challenger, Mrs Milner is interesting, but I’m not sure she’s ready for this level. My best suggestion is to go with last year’s winner, Golan Fortune hopefully with the added help of a visor to see off Debestyman and perhaps Dell’ Arca.