Post by Old Timer on Oct 31, 2020 11:14:42 GMT
It's my first real try at the NH today, and I don't know what to expect as I've changed my approach somewhat since the end of last season. Still, slowly, slowly.
Ascot 15.40 Gr 3 Handicap Chase 456 (146.2) 24f gd/sf – 15 Run
Last year – 570 (147.5) gd/sf – 16 ran
Vinndication 2/1 F 6-11-0 (151) by 5 l from Regal Encore 20/1 11-10-5 (142)
Black Corton 12/1 8-11-5 (163) was 6.25l 3rd
Mister Malarky 8/1 6-10-13 (150) was 82.5l last of 12 finishers
Adrien Du Pont 12/1 7-10-9 (149) PU before last
Black Corton 9-11-12 (161) (4.7)
’19/20 record: 0/3/5 Best: 304.3 off 163 carrying 11-12 (Gr3 HCh 24f gs Asc)
24/02/20 Gr 3 Hcap (570/145.5) 24f gd/sf Kemp 11-12 5/1 F 2/14 2 l off 159
held up mid-division, slightly hampered 6th, headway approaching 3 out, reminder after 2 out, stayed on to take 2nd close home, not trouble winner
Plus: class (W+); going (F); distance (F); course (F); form run lto;
Minus: 252-day break; up 2lbs (OR);
Verdict: was 3rd in last year’s renewal off 2lbd higher, but carrying 5lbs less; 2/4 in a Cl 2 at Aintree and an error saw him drop to 4th behind Regal Encore (-19) here, though he was giving him 19lbs; finished the season as 2nd by 2l to Mister Malarky (-12) at Kempton in February; has had a wind operation which may help his cause and is 3lbs and 2lbs better off with Regal Encore and Mister Maklarky, respectively; Traffic Fluide did win with 11-12 as an 8yo in 2018, but has only won once since winning 8 novice events back in 2017/18.
Whatmore 8-10-3 (138) (4.7)
‘19/20 record: 1/1/6 Best: 279.5 off 138 carrying 10-5 (Gr3 HCh 24f gd/sf Kemp)
10/03/20 List NovHCCh (394/141.4) 20f sf Chelt 11-0 14/1 4/20 12.75 l off 138
mid-division, took keen hold, not fluent 12th, headway when not much room on inside after 3 out, not fluent last, stayed on same pace flat
24/02/20 Gr 3 Hcap (570/145.5) 24f gd/sf Kemp 10-7 7/1 4/14 4 l off 138
held up in rear, headway after 4 out, one pace flat
Plus: going (Wh); down 4lbs (wt);
Minus: class; distance; course (?); 235-day break; up class; up distance;
Verdict: another with only half-a-dozen chases to his name and showed promise in his last two starts in HCh; whether that entitles him to be favourite, however, is another matter.
Mister Malarky 7-11-2 (151) (4.7)
‘19/20 record: 1/0/5 Best: 292.5 off 147 carrying 11-0 (Gr 3 HCh 24f gd/sf Kemp)
10/03/20 Gr 3 HCh (619/144) 25f sf Chelt 11-4 12/1 PU/23 off 151
tracked leaders, driven before 3 out, soon ridden and weakened, behind when pulled up before next
24/02/20 Gr 3 Hcap (570/145.5) 24f gd/sf Kemp 11-0 9/1 1/14 2 l off 147
held up in touch, led 14th, ridden approaching last, driven out
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (won);
Minus: 235-day break;
Verdict: A little in-and-out on his record, but if you take his dislike for Cheltenham or the sf ground, it can be viewed in a more positive light; admittedly he ran poorly in last year’s renewal, but he generally runs well here and the win at Kempton in February had both Black Corton (+12) and Whatmore (-9) behind him; not without a chance.
Commanche Red 7-11-1 (150) (27.0)
19/20 record: 1/0/4 Best: 269.2 off 137 carrying 11-4 (Cl 3 Nov HCh 20.5f sf Kemp)
22/02/20 Gr 2 Nov Ch (183/) 20.5 f sf Kemp 11-0 7/4 F 3/7 10.25 l off 150
chased leaders on inside, hit 4th and slightly lost place, rallied 10th, plugged on in 3rd from 2 out, no chance with leading duo
Plus: going (Wh); down in class;
Minus: class; distance (?); course (?); 252-day break; up 1lb (wt);
Verdict: his claims seem to rest on beating Simply The Betts over 20.5f in a Cl 3 NHc at Kempton last Boxing Day; STB was initially well off the pace and did well to cut it to 9l at the finish; CR on the other hand was well beaten on his final start in a Gr 2 NCh; nevertheless stable is in good form, so worth a look see.
See what we can make of this and for starters I note that horses of 10- year-old and above don’t show that many winners. So that sees Valtor and Regal Encore (besides finishing 2nd last year) leave the list. Townshend is the only one to have run this season, but as that was in a Perth HHd I think we can leave him. The problem with Commanche Red and Whatmore is a slight lack of experience, although Whatmore does have some form in this class, So, at a blind guess I’m going for the breathing operation to reinvigorate Black Corton and him to turn the tables on Mister Malarkey, with Whatmore having a little too much for Commanche Red.
Ascot 15.40 Gr 3 Handicap Chase 456 (146.2) 24f gd/sf – 15 Run
Last year – 570 (147.5) gd/sf – 16 ran
Vinndication 2/1 F 6-11-0 (151) by 5 l from Regal Encore 20/1 11-10-5 (142)
Black Corton 12/1 8-11-5 (163) was 6.25l 3rd
Mister Malarky 8/1 6-10-13 (150) was 82.5l last of 12 finishers
Adrien Du Pont 12/1 7-10-9 (149) PU before last
Black Corton 9-11-12 (161) (4.7)
’19/20 record: 0/3/5 Best: 304.3 off 163 carrying 11-12 (Gr3 HCh 24f gs Asc)
24/02/20 Gr 3 Hcap (570/145.5) 24f gd/sf Kemp 11-12 5/1 F 2/14 2 l off 159
held up mid-division, slightly hampered 6th, headway approaching 3 out, reminder after 2 out, stayed on to take 2nd close home, not trouble winner
Plus: class (W+); going (F); distance (F); course (F); form run lto;
Minus: 252-day break; up 2lbs (OR);
Verdict: was 3rd in last year’s renewal off 2lbd higher, but carrying 5lbs less; 2/4 in a Cl 2 at Aintree and an error saw him drop to 4th behind Regal Encore (-19) here, though he was giving him 19lbs; finished the season as 2nd by 2l to Mister Malarky (-12) at Kempton in February; has had a wind operation which may help his cause and is 3lbs and 2lbs better off with Regal Encore and Mister Maklarky, respectively; Traffic Fluide did win with 11-12 as an 8yo in 2018, but has only won once since winning 8 novice events back in 2017/18.
Whatmore 8-10-3 (138) (4.7)
‘19/20 record: 1/1/6 Best: 279.5 off 138 carrying 10-5 (Gr3 HCh 24f gd/sf Kemp)
10/03/20 List NovHCCh (394/141.4) 20f sf Chelt 11-0 14/1 4/20 12.75 l off 138
mid-division, took keen hold, not fluent 12th, headway when not much room on inside after 3 out, not fluent last, stayed on same pace flat
24/02/20 Gr 3 Hcap (570/145.5) 24f gd/sf Kemp 10-7 7/1 4/14 4 l off 138
held up in rear, headway after 4 out, one pace flat
Plus: going (Wh); down 4lbs (wt);
Minus: class; distance; course (?); 235-day break; up class; up distance;
Verdict: another with only half-a-dozen chases to his name and showed promise in his last two starts in HCh; whether that entitles him to be favourite, however, is another matter.
Mister Malarky 7-11-2 (151) (4.7)
‘19/20 record: 1/0/5 Best: 292.5 off 147 carrying 11-0 (Gr 3 HCh 24f gd/sf Kemp)
10/03/20 Gr 3 HCh (619/144) 25f sf Chelt 11-4 12/1 PU/23 off 151
tracked leaders, driven before 3 out, soon ridden and weakened, behind when pulled up before next
24/02/20 Gr 3 Hcap (570/145.5) 24f gd/sf Kemp 11-0 9/1 1/14 2 l off 147
held up in touch, led 14th, ridden approaching last, driven out
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (won);
Minus: 235-day break;
Verdict: A little in-and-out on his record, but if you take his dislike for Cheltenham or the sf ground, it can be viewed in a more positive light; admittedly he ran poorly in last year’s renewal, but he generally runs well here and the win at Kempton in February had both Black Corton (+12) and Whatmore (-9) behind him; not without a chance.
Commanche Red 7-11-1 (150) (27.0)
19/20 record: 1/0/4 Best: 269.2 off 137 carrying 11-4 (Cl 3 Nov HCh 20.5f sf Kemp)
22/02/20 Gr 2 Nov Ch (183/) 20.5 f sf Kemp 11-0 7/4 F 3/7 10.25 l off 150
chased leaders on inside, hit 4th and slightly lost place, rallied 10th, plugged on in 3rd from 2 out, no chance with leading duo
Plus: going (Wh); down in class;
Minus: class; distance (?); course (?); 252-day break; up 1lb (wt);
Verdict: his claims seem to rest on beating Simply The Betts over 20.5f in a Cl 3 NHc at Kempton last Boxing Day; STB was initially well off the pace and did well to cut it to 9l at the finish; CR on the other hand was well beaten on his final start in a Gr 2 NCh; nevertheless stable is in good form, so worth a look see.
See what we can make of this and for starters I note that horses of 10- year-old and above don’t show that many winners. So that sees Valtor and Regal Encore (besides finishing 2nd last year) leave the list. Townshend is the only one to have run this season, but as that was in a Perth HHd I think we can leave him. The problem with Commanche Red and Whatmore is a slight lack of experience, although Whatmore does have some form in this class, So, at a blind guess I’m going for the breathing operation to reinvigorate Black Corton and him to turn the tables on Mister Malarkey, with Whatmore having a little too much for Commanche Red.