Post by Old Timer on Oct 17, 2020 10:26:40 GMT
Not a day that I enjoy, as there is a dearth of handicaps. Still, we’ll do what we can at Catterick and the final one at Ascot, but I do think my little streak of winning days may be coming to an end!
Catterick 15.25 Cl 2 Handicap 124 (89.3) 5f sf – 10 Ran
Last year – 218 (89.9) 5f sf = 14 ran
Count D’Orsay 5/1 3-9-0 (91) Dr 3 by 0.5 l Four Wheel Drive 20/1 3-8-7 (87) Dr 4
Broken Spear 18/1 3-8-9 (86) Dr 2 was 1.75 l 3rd
Dark Shot 22/1 6-8-7 (84) Dr 1 was 2.75 l 4th
Terentum Star 20/1 7-8-13 (90) Dr 12 was 4.5 l 5th
Count D’Orsay 4-9-7 (99) Dr 10 (5.5)
’19 record: 3/2/7 Best: 180.9 off 91 carrying 9-0 (Cl 2 Hcap 5f sf Catt)
‘20 record: 1/2/7 Best: 182.8 off 91 carrying 8-11 (Cl 2 Hcap 5d sf Hayd)
06/10/20 Cl 2 (120/95.3) 5f hv Leic 9-7 6/4 F 5/6 7.8 l off 100
chased leader until over 2f out, weakened from over 1f out
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); recent outing (11 days); down 1lb (OR);
Minus:
Verdict: won last year’s renewal as a 3yo off 91; tries this year off 8lbs higher despite not having won off more than the 91 he won off at Haydock on sf three races back; although second last race a form run, disappointed lto when finishing 5/6 at Leicester; eased 1lb for that, but needs to bounce back.
Muscika 6-9-3 (93) Dr 5 (4.1)
’19 record: 1/5/15 Best: 180.9 off 86 carrying 9-1 (Cl 2 Hcap 6f sf York)
’20 record: 2/2/11 Best: 178.2 off 87 carrying 9-0 (Cl 2 Hcap 6f gd York)
09/10/20 Cl 2 (97/85.5) 5f sf York 8-11 40/1 1/20 1.25 l off 88
tracked leaders, challenged over 2f out, led over 1f out, clear inside final furlong, ran on well
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (8 days);
Minus: course (?); up 1lb (wt); up 5lbs (OR);
Verdict: usually runs well at York and gained his second win of the season when apprentice-ridden he proved too strong for a field of 20 over 5f last week; has been raised 5klbs for that and has never won off higher than last time’s.
Lord Riddiford 5-8-9 (87) Dr 7 (13.8)
’19 record: 1/1/11 Best: 183.3 off 89 carrying 8-13 (Cl 2 Hcap 5f AW Chelm)
’20 record: 1/1/5 Best: 175.4 off 87 carrying 9-4 (Cl 3 Hcap 5f AW Chelm)
09/10/20 Cl 2 (97/85.5) 5f sf York 9-2 33/1 4/20 2.75l off 88
prominent, every chance over 1f out, kept on same pace inside final furlong
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); form run lto (8 days); down 7lbs (wt); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: better record on AW than turf, although has won on the natural surface; best effort on turf for some while when 4/20 to Muscika at York last week and meets him on 6lbs better terms today.
Tough little sprint, which was won last year by the 3yo Count D’Orsay. Tries off 8lbs higher this year and that looks too much of a jump for him, especially coming off a shocker lto. On the other hand, Muscika won lto and is upped 5lbs. He was claimed ridden last time and is today, but now finds himself 6lbs worse off with Lord Riddiford who is showing the benefit of his wind surgery. I may be making a mistake to discount Broken Spear who was 3rd last year. However, his losing run dates back to 2018, 17 races ago, plus his sire Pastoral Pursuit has already failed 7 times to sire the race winner; double jeopardy! So, in going for the winner I’m going for Lord Riddiford from Muscika and Count D’Orsay.
Ascot 16.15 Cl 2 Handicap 622 (101.5) 8f sf – 20 Run
3yo = 3lbs wfa allowance
Last year – 1556 (102.1) 8f hv – 20 Run
Escobar 16/1 5-9-6 (105) Dr 21 by 2.25 l from Lord North 3/1 F 3-9-8 Dr 20
Kynren 6/1 5-9-8 (107) Dr 19 was 5.77 l 6th
Alternate Fact 5-9-0 (97) Dr 16 (13.4)
’19 record: 1/2/7
’20 record: 1/3/7 Best: 185.2 off 95 carrying 9-1 (Cl 2 Hcap 8f gd Hayd)
08/10/20 Cl 2 Hcap (187/89.8) 8f sf York 9-6 11/1 6/20 3.75 off 97
held up in rear, ridden over 2f out, switched left over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong, nearest finish
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (8 days); down 6lbs (wt);
Minus:
Verdict: has won on sf, but only as far as Cl 2, which for a 5yo is a little bit wanting; best effort in Cl 2 came on penultimate start at Haydock where he was returning from a 60-day break to finish 2nd to Danyah; may be a little wanting here.
Bell Rock 4-9-6 (103) Dr 9 (9.9)
’19 record: 0/0/3
’20 record: 1/2/4 Best: 194.7 off 98 carrying 9-5 (Cl 2 Hcap 8f gd Nwmkt)
26/09/20 Cl 2 (747/97.0) 9f gd Nwmkt 9-3 10/1 3/27 5.5 l off 103
in touch, headway 2f out, ridden and stayed on to go 3rd towards finish
Plus: class (W); distance (W); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: going (?); course; up 3lbs (wt);
Verdict: lightly-raced for a 4yo with just 8 starts; won over 8f at Newmarket on return, then finished a respectable 6th in the Hunt Cup here; off then till Goodwood where he finished a staying-on 3rd to Maydanny; a two month’s break then finished 3rd in the Cambridgeshire, again staying on at the finish; not sure about the drop back to 8f, as he seems to want at least 10f, and the going is open to question as he hasn’t tried anything softer than gd.
Njord 4-9-5 (102) Dr 4 (10.7)
’19 record: 1/1/2
’20 record: 1/3/6 Best: 192.9 off 104 carrying 10-0 (Prem Hcap 8f hv Curr)
22/09/20 List Stks (225/) 9f hv List 9-11 9/2 F 4/11 3.25 l off 102
waited with towards rear, a little keen, pushed along from 3f out, headway straight, kept on without threatening inside final furlong
28/08/20 Prem Hcap (442/93.4) 8f hv Curr 10-0 4/1 5/20 1.5 l off 104
soon mid-division, 12th 3f out, soon pushed along and headway, chased leaders and kept on without threatening inside final furlong
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); recent run (25 days); down 6lbs (wt); down in class;
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: 4/11 in Listed stakes lto with Keats (-5) 1.75l 2nd; today he meets Keats on 7lbs better terms for 1.5l; previously he had finished a close 5th in the Irish Cambridgeshire carrying 10-0; difficult to judge Irish form, but appears to be thereabouts.
Tempus 4-9-2 (99) Dr 6 (10.0)
’19 record: 2/1/3
’20 record: 2/0/3 Best: 190.6 off 93 carrying 9-1
26/09/20 Cl 2 (747/97.0) 9f gd Nwmkt 8-11 9/2 6/27 5.67l off 97
close up, ridden over 2f out, kept on one pace final furlong
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: going (?); up 5lbs (wt); up 2lbs (OR);
Verdict: finished close behind Bell Rock in the Cambridgeshire, but has been raised 2lbs and meets him on worse terms, tough to follow.
I hate these handicaps with horses coming from non-handicap races as they are next to impossible for me to tally. And we have a few here, including King Ottokar, who looks to be a likely contender. However, he is drawn very high and that might be a problem in the prevailing going. So that’s one gone, and then there’s the favourite, Raaeq, a very short price for a 3yo who likes to be up with the pace. I’m not sure he can make it all, and despite him being reasonably drawn, I’ll pass. The draw raises some problems, as it’s been favouring high numbers, all year. However, those drawn high could experience the heavier of the conditions, and for that reason I fancy the low to middle. I can’t see why Tempus is favoured over Bell Rock, so I’m going for Bell Rock from Njord and with Alternate Fact to prove the odd one out and get the better of Tempus.
Catterick 15.25 Cl 2 Handicap 124 (89.3) 5f sf – 10 Ran
Last year – 218 (89.9) 5f sf = 14 ran
Count D’Orsay 5/1 3-9-0 (91) Dr 3 by 0.5 l Four Wheel Drive 20/1 3-8-7 (87) Dr 4
Broken Spear 18/1 3-8-9 (86) Dr 2 was 1.75 l 3rd
Dark Shot 22/1 6-8-7 (84) Dr 1 was 2.75 l 4th
Terentum Star 20/1 7-8-13 (90) Dr 12 was 4.5 l 5th
Count D’Orsay 4-9-7 (99) Dr 10 (5.5)
’19 record: 3/2/7 Best: 180.9 off 91 carrying 9-0 (Cl 2 Hcap 5f sf Catt)
‘20 record: 1/2/7 Best: 182.8 off 91 carrying 8-11 (Cl 2 Hcap 5d sf Hayd)
06/10/20 Cl 2 (120/95.3) 5f hv Leic 9-7 6/4 F 5/6 7.8 l off 100
chased leader until over 2f out, weakened from over 1f out
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); recent outing (11 days); down 1lb (OR);
Minus:
Verdict: won last year’s renewal as a 3yo off 91; tries this year off 8lbs higher despite not having won off more than the 91 he won off at Haydock on sf three races back; although second last race a form run, disappointed lto when finishing 5/6 at Leicester; eased 1lb for that, but needs to bounce back.
Muscika 6-9-3 (93) Dr 5 (4.1)
’19 record: 1/5/15 Best: 180.9 off 86 carrying 9-1 (Cl 2 Hcap 6f sf York)
’20 record: 2/2/11 Best: 178.2 off 87 carrying 9-0 (Cl 2 Hcap 6f gd York)
09/10/20 Cl 2 (97/85.5) 5f sf York 8-11 40/1 1/20 1.25 l off 88
tracked leaders, challenged over 2f out, led over 1f out, clear inside final furlong, ran on well
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (8 days);
Minus: course (?); up 1lb (wt); up 5lbs (OR);
Verdict: usually runs well at York and gained his second win of the season when apprentice-ridden he proved too strong for a field of 20 over 5f last week; has been raised 5klbs for that and has never won off higher than last time’s.
Lord Riddiford 5-8-9 (87) Dr 7 (13.8)
’19 record: 1/1/11 Best: 183.3 off 89 carrying 8-13 (Cl 2 Hcap 5f AW Chelm)
’20 record: 1/1/5 Best: 175.4 off 87 carrying 9-4 (Cl 3 Hcap 5f AW Chelm)
09/10/20 Cl 2 (97/85.5) 5f sf York 9-2 33/1 4/20 2.75l off 88
prominent, every chance over 1f out, kept on same pace inside final furlong
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); form run lto (8 days); down 7lbs (wt); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: better record on AW than turf, although has won on the natural surface; best effort on turf for some while when 4/20 to Muscika at York last week and meets him on 6lbs better terms today.
Tough little sprint, which was won last year by the 3yo Count D’Orsay. Tries off 8lbs higher this year and that looks too much of a jump for him, especially coming off a shocker lto. On the other hand, Muscika won lto and is upped 5lbs. He was claimed ridden last time and is today, but now finds himself 6lbs worse off with Lord Riddiford who is showing the benefit of his wind surgery. I may be making a mistake to discount Broken Spear who was 3rd last year. However, his losing run dates back to 2018, 17 races ago, plus his sire Pastoral Pursuit has already failed 7 times to sire the race winner; double jeopardy! So, in going for the winner I’m going for Lord Riddiford from Muscika and Count D’Orsay.
Ascot 16.15 Cl 2 Handicap 622 (101.5) 8f sf – 20 Run
3yo = 3lbs wfa allowance
Last year – 1556 (102.1) 8f hv – 20 Run
Escobar 16/1 5-9-6 (105) Dr 21 by 2.25 l from Lord North 3/1 F 3-9-8 Dr 20
Kynren 6/1 5-9-8 (107) Dr 19 was 5.77 l 6th
Alternate Fact 5-9-0 (97) Dr 16 (13.4)
’19 record: 1/2/7
’20 record: 1/3/7 Best: 185.2 off 95 carrying 9-1 (Cl 2 Hcap 8f gd Hayd)
08/10/20 Cl 2 Hcap (187/89.8) 8f sf York 9-6 11/1 6/20 3.75 off 97
held up in rear, ridden over 2f out, switched left over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong, nearest finish
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (8 days); down 6lbs (wt);
Minus:
Verdict: has won on sf, but only as far as Cl 2, which for a 5yo is a little bit wanting; best effort in Cl 2 came on penultimate start at Haydock where he was returning from a 60-day break to finish 2nd to Danyah; may be a little wanting here.
Bell Rock 4-9-6 (103) Dr 9 (9.9)
’19 record: 0/0/3
’20 record: 1/2/4 Best: 194.7 off 98 carrying 9-5 (Cl 2 Hcap 8f gd Nwmkt)
26/09/20 Cl 2 (747/97.0) 9f gd Nwmkt 9-3 10/1 3/27 5.5 l off 103
in touch, headway 2f out, ridden and stayed on to go 3rd towards finish
Plus: class (W); distance (W); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: going (?); course; up 3lbs (wt);
Verdict: lightly-raced for a 4yo with just 8 starts; won over 8f at Newmarket on return, then finished a respectable 6th in the Hunt Cup here; off then till Goodwood where he finished a staying-on 3rd to Maydanny; a two month’s break then finished 3rd in the Cambridgeshire, again staying on at the finish; not sure about the drop back to 8f, as he seems to want at least 10f, and the going is open to question as he hasn’t tried anything softer than gd.
Njord 4-9-5 (102) Dr 4 (10.7)
’19 record: 1/1/2
’20 record: 1/3/6 Best: 192.9 off 104 carrying 10-0 (Prem Hcap 8f hv Curr)
22/09/20 List Stks (225/) 9f hv List 9-11 9/2 F 4/11 3.25 l off 102
waited with towards rear, a little keen, pushed along from 3f out, headway straight, kept on without threatening inside final furlong
28/08/20 Prem Hcap (442/93.4) 8f hv Curr 10-0 4/1 5/20 1.5 l off 104
soon mid-division, 12th 3f out, soon pushed along and headway, chased leaders and kept on without threatening inside final furlong
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); recent run (25 days); down 6lbs (wt); down in class;
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: 4/11 in Listed stakes lto with Keats (-5) 1.75l 2nd; today he meets Keats on 7lbs better terms for 1.5l; previously he had finished a close 5th in the Irish Cambridgeshire carrying 10-0; difficult to judge Irish form, but appears to be thereabouts.
Tempus 4-9-2 (99) Dr 6 (10.0)
’19 record: 2/1/3
’20 record: 2/0/3 Best: 190.6 off 93 carrying 9-1
26/09/20 Cl 2 (747/97.0) 9f gd Nwmkt 8-11 9/2 6/27 5.67l off 97
close up, ridden over 2f out, kept on one pace final furlong
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: going (?); up 5lbs (wt); up 2lbs (OR);
Verdict: finished close behind Bell Rock in the Cambridgeshire, but has been raised 2lbs and meets him on worse terms, tough to follow.
I hate these handicaps with horses coming from non-handicap races as they are next to impossible for me to tally. And we have a few here, including King Ottokar, who looks to be a likely contender. However, he is drawn very high and that might be a problem in the prevailing going. So that’s one gone, and then there’s the favourite, Raaeq, a very short price for a 3yo who likes to be up with the pace. I’m not sure he can make it all, and despite him being reasonably drawn, I’ll pass. The draw raises some problems, as it’s been favouring high numbers, all year. However, those drawn high could experience the heavier of the conditions, and for that reason I fancy the low to middle. I can’t see why Tempus is favoured over Bell Rock, so I’m going for Bell Rock from Njord and with Alternate Fact to prove the odd one out and get the better of Tempus.