Post by Old Timer on Oct 10, 2020 10:54:19 GMT
Well, a welcome start to the weekend with an 11/1 winner, although I was fortunate that the well-backed runner-up didn’t quite get his head in front. Today’s the Cesarewitch, and it’s not the easiest of handicaps to solve, while I’m a little wary at York where my selection appear a little obvious. After yesterday, however, all contributions will be gratefully accepted.
York 14.35 Cl 2 Handicap 156 (92.5) 10.5f sf – 13 Run
3yo = 4lbs wfa allowance
Last year – 187 (100.9) sf 7 ran
Coolagh Forest 7/2 3-8-6 (96) Dr 1 by 3l from Johnny Drama 2/1 F 4-8-13 (99) Dr 6
Mathew Flinders 3-9-1 (97) Dr 10 (3.9)
’20 record: 2/2/5 Best: 185.6 off 92 carrying 8-9 (Cl 2 Hcap 8f gd Donc)
12/09/20 Cl 2 Hcap (249/93.6) 8f gd Donc 8-9 5/2 F 1/12 1.25 l off 92
held up, headway 2f out, ridden to lead just inside final furlong, ran on
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (28 days);
Minus: going (?); up 6lbs (wt); up 5lbs (OR); up distance;
Verdict: won a mdn over 10f at Doncaster and then won over 8f at the same course lto; now steps back up to 10f; not proven winner on anything but gd.
Ilraraab 3-8-13 (95) Dr 11 (6.0)
’20 record: 4/0/5 Best: 181.5 off 90 carrying 8-8 (Cl 2 Hcap 10f gd Newb)
19/09/20 Cl 2 Hcap (249/91.5) 10f gd Newb 9-8 15/2 1/11 0.25l off 90
dwelt, held up in mid-division, switched right and headway on outside over 2f out, led over 1f out, ridden inside final furlong, held on
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (21 days); down 9lbs (wt);
Minus: course (?); up 5lbs (OR);
Verdict: rapidly improving 3yo who completed his four-timer at Newbury lto with Chatez (+5) in 5th; could well make it five in a row.
Spirit Dancer 3-8-3 (85) Dr 12 (7.4)
’19 record: 0/0/1
’20 record: 1/2/3 Best: 170.1 off 83 carrying 8-5 (Cl 2 Hcap 10f gd/sf Ayr)
17/09/20 Cl 2 Hcap (118/88.6) 8-5 3/1 F 2/12 0.75 l off 83
led, headed narrowly over 2f out, ridden and led over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, kept on
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (23 days); down 2lbs (wt);
Minus: course (?); up 2lbs (OR);
Verdict: just 2 races on turf, winning a mdn at Ripon on sf and then finishing runner-up at Ayr on his hcap debut; the 3rd hose has subsequently won; could spring a surprise.
The only one that could possibly upset the 3yos, is Johnny Drama who finished 2nd last year and after a couple of nothing starts has had a wind operation. He may, however, need the race. It’s very hard to get away from Ilraraab who is making massive strides and is preferred to Mathew Flinders who is going back up in trip. Of course, there’s always the possibility that the Frankel-bred colt Spirit Dancer can prove an upset. However, Ive got to go with Ilraraab to get the better of Mathew Flinders and Spirit Dancer.
Newmarket 15.35 Cl 2 Handicap 1245 (91.7) – 34 sf
3yo = 10lbs wfa allowance
Last year – 2179 (92.3) sf – 30 ran
Stratum 25/1 6-9-7 (101) Dr 20 by 0.5l from Party Playboy 50/1 5-8-2 (82) Dr 23
Summer Moon 50/1 3-8-5 (85) Dr 28 was 0.55l 3rd
Not So Sleepy 33/1 7-9-0 (94) Dr 6 was 6.55l 4th
Great White Shark 7/1 5-8-9 (89) Dr 10 was 16.3l 10th
Coeur De Lion 20/1 6-8-13 (03) Dr 1 was 61.85l 24th
Future Investment 4-9-2 (96) Dr 25 (2.0)
’19 record: 2/3/6
’20 record: 1/2/4 Best: 185.7 off 96 carrying 9-2 (Cl 2 Hcap 14d sf Hayd)
05/09/20 Cl 2 Hcap (518/95.2) 14f sf Hayd 9-2 4/1 6/17 5.5 l off 96
in touch, headway 3f out, ridden and every chance over 1f out, kept on one pace
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (35 days);
Minus:
Verdict: has continued to improve, staying on strongly to win over 16f at Chester and then perhaps finding the drop back to 14f a little sharp when upped to Cl 2 at Haydock; Diocletian (+1) was 3l ahead of him in 3rd and although he meets him at level weight today, would seem to have the better of the draw plus D has never won over 14.5f.
Just Hubert 4-8-13 (93) Dr 17 (3.7)
’19 record: 3/0/9
’20 record: 1/1/6 Best: 181.0 off 92 carrying 9-5 (Cl 2 Hcap 16f gd Goodwood)
08/09/20 Cl 2 Hcap (125/91.0) 16f gd Good 9-5 7/1 2/7 2l off 92
held up in 5th, headway on inside 2f out, soon ridden, went 2nd inside final 150 yards, never able to challenge
Plus: class (W); distance (W); form run lto (32 days); down 6lbs (wt);
Minus: going; course; up 1lb (OR);
Verdict: won over 20.5f at Goodwood and on the basis of his last run, needs beyond16f; not won on sf, but has won on gd/sf and so may be suited; middle of the draw, so should be all right.
Mondain 4-8-13 (93) Dr 19 (5.7)
’19 record: 3/1/11
’20 record: 2/2/7 Best: 179.0 off 88 carrying 8-11 (Cl 2 Hcap 16f gd/fm Asc)
18/09/20 Cl 3 (77/82.3) 17.5f gd/sf Ayr 9-12 11/2 1/6 5.5 l off 89
tracked leaders, smooth headway 3f out, led over 2f out, kept on strongly to surge clear entering final furlong, won easily
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (22 days); down 13 lbs (wt);
Minus: 4lbs penalty; up in class;
Verdict: typical Johnston campaigner in that he’ll not want for racecourse experience; showed how much he appreciated the distance when surging clear to win a Cl 3 at Ayr lto; carried a 4lbs penalty for that, which leaves him 3lbs well in; nicely drawn in 19, and looks a contender.
I’m not racking my brains out over this, as with 30 plus runners it’s always somewhat of a lottery. One thing I will do is point out the reasons for leaving some of the more fancied runners. With just one 3yo winner in the last 20 years I’m not that tempted by Coltrane, especially as he is drawn in stall 34. Talking about the draw, I’m not too happy in supporting anything above stall 25, and even that’s a push; so that puts paid to Leoncavallo among others. I also don’t like the chances of Great White Shark, as she was rather blew up last year, and I don’t think 3lbs will help. Not So Sleepy has a chance, but an 8yo carrying 4lbs more than last year… Probably go close to a place, but will find some to beat him.
Of the Irish trained runners, the one that could go very close is Lynwood Gold and I may regret not including it in my trio. However, I’m going for Mondain from Just Hubert, with Future Investment and Lynwood Gold vying for the places.
Well, a welcome start to the weekend with an 11/1 winner, although I was fortunate that the well-backed runner-up didn’t quite get his head in front. Today’s the Cesarewitch, and it’s not the easiest of handicaps to solve, while I’m a little wary at York where my selection appear a little obvious. After yesterday, however, all contributions will be gratefully accepted.
York 14.35 Cl 2 Handicap 156 (92.5) 10.5f sf – 13 Run
3yo = 4lbs wfa allowance
Last year – 187 (100.9) sf 7 ran
Coolagh Forest 7/2 3-8-6 (96) Dr 1 by 3l from Johnny Drama 2/1 F 4-8-13 (99) Dr 6
Mathew Flinders 3-9-1 (97) Dr 10 (3.9)
’20 record: 2/2/5 Best: 185.6 off 92 carrying 8-9 (Cl 2 Hcap 8f gd Donc)
12/09/20 Cl 2 Hcap (249/93.6) 8f gd Donc 8-9 5/2 F 1/12 1.25 l off 92
held up, headway 2f out, ridden to lead just inside final furlong, ran on
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (28 days);
Minus: going (?); up 6lbs (wt); up 5lbs (OR); up distance;
Verdict: won a mdn over 10f at Doncaster and then won over 8f at the same course lto; now steps back up to 10f; not proven winner on anything but gd.
Ilraraab 3-8-13 (95) Dr 11 (6.0)
’20 record: 4/0/5 Best: 181.5 off 90 carrying 8-8 (Cl 2 Hcap 10f gd Newb)
19/09/20 Cl 2 Hcap (249/91.5) 10f gd Newb 9-8 15/2 1/11 0.25l off 90
dwelt, held up in mid-division, switched right and headway on outside over 2f out, led over 1f out, ridden inside final furlong, held on
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (21 days); down 9lbs (wt);
Minus: course (?); up 5lbs (OR);
Verdict: rapidly improving 3yo who completed his four-timer at Newbury lto with Chatez (+5) in 5th; could well make it five in a row.
Spirit Dancer 3-8-3 (85) Dr 12 (7.4)
’19 record: 0/0/1
’20 record: 1/2/3 Best: 170.1 off 83 carrying 8-5 (Cl 2 Hcap 10f gd/sf Ayr)
17/09/20 Cl 2 Hcap (118/88.6) 8-5 3/1 F 2/12 0.75 l off 83
led, headed narrowly over 2f out, ridden and led over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, kept on
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (23 days); down 2lbs (wt);
Minus: course (?); up 2lbs (OR);
Verdict: just 2 races on turf, winning a mdn at Ripon on sf and then finishing runner-up at Ayr on his hcap debut; the 3rd hose has subsequently won; could spring a surprise.
The only one that could possibly upset the 3yos, is Johnny Drama who finished 2nd last year and after a couple of nothing starts has had a wind operation. He may, however, need the race. It’s very hard to get away from Ilraraab who is making massive strides and is preferred to Mathew Flinders who is going back up in trip. Of course, there’s always the possibility that the Frankel-bred colt Spirit Dancer can prove an upset. However, Ive got to go with Ilraraab to get the better of Mathew Flinders and Spirit Dancer.
Newmarket 15.35 Cl 2 Handicap 1245 (91.7) – 34 sf
3yo = 10lbs wfa allowance
Last year – 2179 (92.3) sf – 30 ran
Stratum 25/1 6-9-7 (101) Dr 20 by 0.5l from Party Playboy 50/1 5-8-2 (82) Dr 23
Summer Moon 50/1 3-8-5 (85) Dr 28 was 0.55l 3rd
Not So Sleepy 33/1 7-9-0 (94) Dr 6 was 6.55l 4th
Great White Shark 7/1 5-8-9 (89) Dr 10 was 16.3l 10th
Coeur De Lion 20/1 6-8-13 (03) Dr 1 was 61.85l 24th
Future Investment 4-9-2 (96) Dr 25 (2.0)
’19 record: 2/3/6
’20 record: 1/2/4 Best: 185.7 off 96 carrying 9-2 (Cl 2 Hcap 14d sf Hayd)
05/09/20 Cl 2 Hcap (518/95.2) 14f sf Hayd 9-2 4/1 6/17 5.5 l off 96
in touch, headway 3f out, ridden and every chance over 1f out, kept on one pace
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (35 days);
Minus:
Verdict: has continued to improve, staying on strongly to win over 16f at Chester and then perhaps finding the drop back to 14f a little sharp when upped to Cl 2 at Haydock; Diocletian (+1) was 3l ahead of him in 3rd and although he meets him at level weight today, would seem to have the better of the draw plus D has never won over 14.5f.
Just Hubert 4-8-13 (93) Dr 17 (3.7)
’19 record: 3/0/9
’20 record: 1/1/6 Best: 181.0 off 92 carrying 9-5 (Cl 2 Hcap 16f gd Goodwood)
08/09/20 Cl 2 Hcap (125/91.0) 16f gd Good 9-5 7/1 2/7 2l off 92
held up in 5th, headway on inside 2f out, soon ridden, went 2nd inside final 150 yards, never able to challenge
Plus: class (W); distance (W); form run lto (32 days); down 6lbs (wt);
Minus: going; course; up 1lb (OR);
Verdict: won over 20.5f at Goodwood and on the basis of his last run, needs beyond16f; not won on sf, but has won on gd/sf and so may be suited; middle of the draw, so should be all right.
Mondain 4-8-13 (93) Dr 19 (5.7)
’19 record: 3/1/11
’20 record: 2/2/7 Best: 179.0 off 88 carrying 8-11 (Cl 2 Hcap 16f gd/fm Asc)
18/09/20 Cl 3 (77/82.3) 17.5f gd/sf Ayr 9-12 11/2 1/6 5.5 l off 89
tracked leaders, smooth headway 3f out, led over 2f out, kept on strongly to surge clear entering final furlong, won easily
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (22 days); down 13 lbs (wt);
Minus: 4lbs penalty; up in class;
Verdict: typical Johnston campaigner in that he’ll not want for racecourse experience; showed how much he appreciated the distance when surging clear to win a Cl 3 at Ayr lto; carried a 4lbs penalty for that, which leaves him 3lbs well in; nicely drawn in 19, and looks a contender.
I’m not racking my brains out over this, as with 30 plus runners it’s always somewhat of a lottery. One thing I will do is point out the reasons for leaving some of the more fancied runners. With just one 3yo winner in the last 20 years I’m not that tempted by Coltrane, especially as he is drawn in stall 34. Talking about the draw, I’m not too happy in supporting anything above stall 25, and even that’s a push; so that puts paid to Leoncavallo among others. I also don’t like the chances of Great White Shark, as she was rather blew up last year, and I don’t think 3lbs will help. Not So Sleepy has a chance, but an 8yo carrying 4lbs more than last year… Probably go close to a place, but will find some to beat him.
Of the Irish trained runners, the one that could go very close is Lynwood Gold and I may regret not including it in my trio. However, I’m going for Mondain from Just Hubert, with Future Investment and Lynwood Gold vying for the places.
Well, a welcome start to the weekend with an 11/1 winner, although I was fortunate that the well-backed runner-up didn’t quite get his head in front. Today’s the Cesarewitch, and it’s not the easiest of handicaps to solve, while I’m a little wary at York where my selection appear a little obvious. After yesterday, however, all contributions will be gratefully accepted.