Post by Old Timer on Oct 9, 2020 10:48:09 GMT
Last Saturday got well and truly screwed up with Ascot being off, so we’ll try and get a bit of Friday luck at York, not that I’m over keen on these. Still, need the practice for tomorrow!
York 14.05 Cl 2 Handicap 187 (89.8) 8f sf – 20 Run
Last year – 156 (91.1) sf – 15 ran
Crownthorpe 12/1 4-8-9 (91) Dr 4 by 2.25l from Firmament 6/1 7-9-4 (97) Dr 12
Alemaratalyoum 4/1 F 5-8-13 (97) Dr 3 was 2.5l 3rd
Young Fire 14/1 4-8-9 (89) Dr 13 was 5l 6th
Hortzadar 9/1 4-9-1 (94) Dr 16 was 5.5l 7th
Ouzo 4-9-1 (92) Dr 13 (Minus 2.3)
’19 record: 3/1/6 Best: 175.2 off 91 carrying 9-1 (Cl 3 Hcap 8f sf Nwmkt)
’20 record: 0/2/4 Best: 184.0 off 85 carrying 8-9 (Cl 2 Hcap 8f gd Nwmkt)
19/09/20 Cl 2 Hcap (249/91.5) 10f gd Newb 9-3 14/1 10/11 5.32 l off 94
held up in touch, pushed along over 2f out, not much room inside final furlong, no impression
20/08/20 Cl 2 Hcap (467/98.7) 8f gd York 8-9 12/1 5/17 2.25L off 95
held up in mid-division, headway chasing leaders over 2f out, no extra inside final furlong
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (F); recent outing (20 days); down 2lbs (wt); down 2lbs (OR); down 2f;
Minus:
Verdict: last time was first at 10f and he didn’t have much room in the final; the plus factor is that he’s been dropped a couple of lbs for that, which brings him to within 1lb of what he was at the start of the season, plus he ran well in the Clipper Logistics here in August off 3lbs higher; should be suited by the drop back in trip, and has won on sf going; would prefer a lower draw but 13 not bad.
Crownthorpe 5-9-1 (92) Dr 20 (Minus 0.3)
’19 record: 3/0/10 Best: 182.1 off 91 carrying 8-9 (Cl 2 Hcap 8f sf York)
’20 record: 0/1/3 Best: 174.0 off 92 carrying 8-9 (Cl 2 Hcap 8f gd Hayd)
25/09/20 Cl 2 Hcap (156/94.7) 9f gd Hayd 8-9 25/1 3/9 4.3l off 92
held up towards rear, headway on outside over 1f out, stayed on inside final furlong, went never dangerous 3rd last 100 yards
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (13 days);
Minus: up 1lb (wt);
Verdict: won this last year, off a much better draw, and has been lightly campaigned this time round; however, hinted at a return to form last time out at Haydock and can be expected to improve on that, with his rider’s claim he only carries 1lb more than last year and looks the best of Fahey’s trio, but you can never tell with him!
Shelir 4-9-4 (95) Dr 16 (1.4)
’19 record: 2/0/6
’20 record: 1/1/8 Best: 183.3 off 85 carrying 9-9 (Cl 2 Hcap 8f gd/sf Ayr)
19/09/20 Cl 2 Hcap (118/92.0) 8f gd/sf Ayr 9-9 7/2 3/9 1.3l off 95
led, pushed along 2f out, reminders before 1f out, outpaced and lost position final 150 yards
Plus: class (F); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (20 days); down 5lbs (wt);
Minus: going;
Verdict: only a nose separated him from Ouzo (+5) in the Clipper Logistics here and he has improved since them, winning a Cl 3 at Thirsk and finishing 3rd in a Cl 2 at Ayr; he now has to give Ouzo 3lbs and an 8lbs swing in the weights might just be against him.
Alternative Fact 5-9-6 (97) Dr 19 (1.6)
’19 record: 1/2/7 Best: 174.1 off 89 carrying 9-8 (Cl 2 Hcap 8f gd/sf Sand)
’20 record: 1/3/6 Best: 185.2 off 95 carrying 9-1 (Cl 2 Hcap 8f gd Hayd)
25/09/20 Cl 2 Hcap (156/94.7) 9f gd Hayd 9-1 4/1 2/9 1.5l off 95
held up towards rear on inside, headway tracking leaders over 3f out, went 2nd just inside final furlong, stayed on same pace, no chance with winner
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (13 days);
Minus: course; up 5lbs (wt); up 2lbs (OR);
Verdict: won a Cl 3 on sf at Haydock in July and finished in a Cl 2 there coming back from a 60-day break; was fancied after his break and finished 2.75l ahead of Crownthorpe (-6) in 3rd; meets C by the raised 2lbs worse terms today; is 6lbs above his career high mark, and has never won in Cl 2, plus is drawn in stall 19.
Chance 4-8-12 (89) Dr 9 (7.8p)
’19 record: 3/1/6 Best: 155.4 off 82 carrying 9-4 (Cl 4 Hcap 9f gd York)
’20 record: 0/1/1 Best: 176.1 off 88 carrying 9-7 (Cl 3 Hcap 8f gd Sand)
11/09/20 Cl 3 Hcap (93/88.1) 8f gd Sand 9-7 16/1 2/8 1.75l off 88
held up towards rear in slowly run race, headway on outside over 2f out, stayed on into 2nd inside final furlong, never able to challenge
Plus: distance (F); course (W); form run lto (28 days); down 9lbs (wt);
Minus: class; going (?); up 1lb (OR); up in class;
Verdict: lightly-raced sort and recorded a hat-trick of wins as a 3yo, but didn’t fire on his last two starts, although the Cambridgeshire was aiming a little high; just the one start four weeks ago when not disgraced in a slowly-run affair at Sandown in a first-time hood; will come on for that Cl 3 and hood is retained, but has yet to win in Cl 2or run on sf ground and looks a little short for my money.
Hesslewood 4-9-0 (91) Dr 10 (7.7)
’19 record: 1/2/6
‘20 record: 1/3/6 Best: 173.1 off 85 carrying 9-1 (Cl 2 Hcap 8f sf Rip)
25/09/20 Cl 3 Hcap (81/83.8) 8f gd/sf Hayd 9-8 17/2 1/12 0.75l off 86
midfield, ridden 2f out, joined leaders 1f out, led inside final furlong, ran on well
31/08/20 Cl 2 Hcap (109/88.8) 8f sf Rip 9/1 100/30 2/10 0.25l off 85
held up in mid-division, headway over 3f out, led 2f out, edged left inside final furlong, headed towards finish
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (14 days); down 8lbs (wt);
Minus: up 5lbs (OR); up class;
Verdict: fitting of cheekpieces has done the trick as the first time at Ripon he ran Hortzadar (+1) to 0.25l and then claimed a Cl 3 at Haydock; he meets on 6lbs better terms, and while the latter has won again since it’s hard to win 3 in a row in this class; Hesslewood has got an outside chance of claiming of continuing on the upturn.
The major problem that sticks out here is that a single digit draw is generally favoured, but with the exception of Hortzadar – who needs a career best off top weight – Firmament and Chance, most of my fancied runners are drawn in double figures. The first to go are Alternative Fact and Chance, followed by Shelir. That leaves me with Ouzo, Crownthorpe and Hesslewood, and taking the lowest drawn of those leaves me with Ouzo from Hesslewood with Crownthorpe trying what could be the impossible from stall 20.
York 14.05 Cl 2 Handicap 187 (89.8) 8f sf – 20 Run
Last year – 156 (91.1) sf – 15 ran
Crownthorpe 12/1 4-8-9 (91) Dr 4 by 2.25l from Firmament 6/1 7-9-4 (97) Dr 12
Alemaratalyoum 4/1 F 5-8-13 (97) Dr 3 was 2.5l 3rd
Young Fire 14/1 4-8-9 (89) Dr 13 was 5l 6th
Hortzadar 9/1 4-9-1 (94) Dr 16 was 5.5l 7th
Ouzo 4-9-1 (92) Dr 13 (Minus 2.3)
’19 record: 3/1/6 Best: 175.2 off 91 carrying 9-1 (Cl 3 Hcap 8f sf Nwmkt)
’20 record: 0/2/4 Best: 184.0 off 85 carrying 8-9 (Cl 2 Hcap 8f gd Nwmkt)
19/09/20 Cl 2 Hcap (249/91.5) 10f gd Newb 9-3 14/1 10/11 5.32 l off 94
held up in touch, pushed along over 2f out, not much room inside final furlong, no impression
20/08/20 Cl 2 Hcap (467/98.7) 8f gd York 8-9 12/1 5/17 2.25L off 95
held up in mid-division, headway chasing leaders over 2f out, no extra inside final furlong
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (F); recent outing (20 days); down 2lbs (wt); down 2lbs (OR); down 2f;
Minus:
Verdict: last time was first at 10f and he didn’t have much room in the final; the plus factor is that he’s been dropped a couple of lbs for that, which brings him to within 1lb of what he was at the start of the season, plus he ran well in the Clipper Logistics here in August off 3lbs higher; should be suited by the drop back in trip, and has won on sf going; would prefer a lower draw but 13 not bad.
Crownthorpe 5-9-1 (92) Dr 20 (Minus 0.3)
’19 record: 3/0/10 Best: 182.1 off 91 carrying 8-9 (Cl 2 Hcap 8f sf York)
’20 record: 0/1/3 Best: 174.0 off 92 carrying 8-9 (Cl 2 Hcap 8f gd Hayd)
25/09/20 Cl 2 Hcap (156/94.7) 9f gd Hayd 8-9 25/1 3/9 4.3l off 92
held up towards rear, headway on outside over 1f out, stayed on inside final furlong, went never dangerous 3rd last 100 yards
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (13 days);
Minus: up 1lb (wt);
Verdict: won this last year, off a much better draw, and has been lightly campaigned this time round; however, hinted at a return to form last time out at Haydock and can be expected to improve on that, with his rider’s claim he only carries 1lb more than last year and looks the best of Fahey’s trio, but you can never tell with him!
Shelir 4-9-4 (95) Dr 16 (1.4)
’19 record: 2/0/6
’20 record: 1/1/8 Best: 183.3 off 85 carrying 9-9 (Cl 2 Hcap 8f gd/sf Ayr)
19/09/20 Cl 2 Hcap (118/92.0) 8f gd/sf Ayr 9-9 7/2 3/9 1.3l off 95
led, pushed along 2f out, reminders before 1f out, outpaced and lost position final 150 yards
Plus: class (F); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (20 days); down 5lbs (wt);
Minus: going;
Verdict: only a nose separated him from Ouzo (+5) in the Clipper Logistics here and he has improved since them, winning a Cl 3 at Thirsk and finishing 3rd in a Cl 2 at Ayr; he now has to give Ouzo 3lbs and an 8lbs swing in the weights might just be against him.
Alternative Fact 5-9-6 (97) Dr 19 (1.6)
’19 record: 1/2/7 Best: 174.1 off 89 carrying 9-8 (Cl 2 Hcap 8f gd/sf Sand)
’20 record: 1/3/6 Best: 185.2 off 95 carrying 9-1 (Cl 2 Hcap 8f gd Hayd)
25/09/20 Cl 2 Hcap (156/94.7) 9f gd Hayd 9-1 4/1 2/9 1.5l off 95
held up towards rear on inside, headway tracking leaders over 3f out, went 2nd just inside final furlong, stayed on same pace, no chance with winner
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (13 days);
Minus: course; up 5lbs (wt); up 2lbs (OR);
Verdict: won a Cl 3 on sf at Haydock in July and finished in a Cl 2 there coming back from a 60-day break; was fancied after his break and finished 2.75l ahead of Crownthorpe (-6) in 3rd; meets C by the raised 2lbs worse terms today; is 6lbs above his career high mark, and has never won in Cl 2, plus is drawn in stall 19.
Chance 4-8-12 (89) Dr 9 (7.8p)
’19 record: 3/1/6 Best: 155.4 off 82 carrying 9-4 (Cl 4 Hcap 9f gd York)
’20 record: 0/1/1 Best: 176.1 off 88 carrying 9-7 (Cl 3 Hcap 8f gd Sand)
11/09/20 Cl 3 Hcap (93/88.1) 8f gd Sand 9-7 16/1 2/8 1.75l off 88
held up towards rear in slowly run race, headway on outside over 2f out, stayed on into 2nd inside final furlong, never able to challenge
Plus: distance (F); course (W); form run lto (28 days); down 9lbs (wt);
Minus: class; going (?); up 1lb (OR); up in class;
Verdict: lightly-raced sort and recorded a hat-trick of wins as a 3yo, but didn’t fire on his last two starts, although the Cambridgeshire was aiming a little high; just the one start four weeks ago when not disgraced in a slowly-run affair at Sandown in a first-time hood; will come on for that Cl 3 and hood is retained, but has yet to win in Cl 2or run on sf ground and looks a little short for my money.
Hesslewood 4-9-0 (91) Dr 10 (7.7)
’19 record: 1/2/6
‘20 record: 1/3/6 Best: 173.1 off 85 carrying 9-1 (Cl 2 Hcap 8f sf Rip)
25/09/20 Cl 3 Hcap (81/83.8) 8f gd/sf Hayd 9-8 17/2 1/12 0.75l off 86
midfield, ridden 2f out, joined leaders 1f out, led inside final furlong, ran on well
31/08/20 Cl 2 Hcap (109/88.8) 8f sf Rip 9/1 100/30 2/10 0.25l off 85
held up in mid-division, headway over 3f out, led 2f out, edged left inside final furlong, headed towards finish
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (14 days); down 8lbs (wt);
Minus: up 5lbs (OR); up class;
Verdict: fitting of cheekpieces has done the trick as the first time at Ripon he ran Hortzadar (+1) to 0.25l and then claimed a Cl 3 at Haydock; he meets on 6lbs better terms, and while the latter has won again since it’s hard to win 3 in a row in this class; Hesslewood has got an outside chance of claiming of continuing on the upturn.
The major problem that sticks out here is that a single digit draw is generally favoured, but with the exception of Hortzadar – who needs a career best off top weight – Firmament and Chance, most of my fancied runners are drawn in double figures. The first to go are Alternative Fact and Chance, followed by Shelir. That leaves me with Ouzo, Crownthorpe and Hesslewood, and taking the lowest drawn of those leaves me with Ouzo from Hesslewood with Crownthorpe trying what could be the impossible from stall 20.