Post by Old Timer on Sept 26, 2020 10:08:15 GMT
Twenty-nine horses running a straight nine furlongs, I must be mad. No time for anything else, so really it’s a weekend off as if any of the five; let alone the three, makes the frame I’ll be happy!
Newmarket 15.35 Cl 2 Handicap 747 (96.8) 9f gd – 29 Run
3yo = 5lbs wfa allowance
Last year – 996 (95.0) – 30 ran
Lord North 9/2 F 3-8-10 (98) Dr 29 by 0.75l from Beringer 16/1 4-8-9 (97) Dr 15
Good Birthday 9/1 3-8-10 (98) Dr 32 was 4.75l 3rd
Majestic Dawn 8/1 3-8-1 (89) Dr 20 was 5.5l 5th
Fifth Position 10/1 3-8-12 (100) Dr 24 was 6.8l 8th
You’re Hired 33/1 6-8-4 (87) Dr 31 was 9.4l 11th
Afaak 20/1 5-9-10 (107) Dr 2 was 13.65l 18th
Zhui Feng 50/1 6-9-1 (98) Dr 4 was 17.4l 23rd
Tempus 4-8-11 (97) Dr 22 (3.2)
’19 record: 2/0/3
‘20 record: 2/0/2 Best: 190.6 off 93 carrying 9-1 (Cl 2 8f gd Ascot)
04/09/20 Cl 2 Hcap (156/97.6) 8f gd Ascot 9-1 13/8 F 1/8 1.5l off 93
tracked leaders going well, led over 1f out, ran on well
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (8.5f W); form run lto (22 days); down 4lbs (wt);
Minus: distance (9f/ 10f ?); course (?); 4lbs penalty;
Verdict: 4/6 career best and looks to be going places; has never rub in a race of more than 10 runners, so that’s a question, as is his ability to get 9f; could start at very short price.
Derevo 4-8-9 (95) Dr 11 (4.0)
’19 record: 3/0/5 Best: 181.3 off 91 carrying 8-13 (Cl 3 12.5f AW Newcs)
’20 record: 0/2/4 Best: 187.8 off 95 carrying 9-3 (Cl 2 10f gd Donc)
09/09/20 Cl 2 Hcap (162/94.3) 10f gd Donc 9-3 9/4 F 2/14 0.75l off 95
mid-division in main group, ridden to challenge and led over 1f out, ran on well, headed final 100yds
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W10f); form run lto (17 days); down 8lbs (wt);
Minus: distance (8f?); course;
Verdict: won over 10f (twice) and 12.5f last year, but hasn’t got his head in front this, being behind several of his rivals on several occasions; looked like he was going to break the streak lto, but got caught late on at Doncaster; the drop back in trip might help, although has never tried 8f or 9f’.
Fifth Position 4-9-4 (104) Dr 18 (5.0)
’19 record: 1/0/9
‘20 record: 1/3/5 Best: 195.8 off 104 carrying 9-6 (Cl 2 10.5f gd York)
22/08/20 Cl 2 Hcap (187/92.1) 10.5f sf York 9-10 5/1 3/15 1.85l off 104
towards rear, headway near side over 2f out, ridden edged left and ran on towards finish
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (10 W/ 8.5f W); down 6lbs (wt);
Minus: course;
Verdict: best performance when 4l 3rd to Sinjaari (-9) in the John Smith’s and obviously likes York as he was a close 3rd to Lucander (-15) lto; meets S on 8lbs and L on 4lbs better terms, which should make it closer with L; is 4lbs higher than last year, and any rain will be welcome.
Bell Rock 4-9-3 (103) Dr 24 (5.1)
’19 record: 0/0/3
’20 record: 1/1/3 Best: 194.7 off 98 carrying 9-5 (Cl 2 8f gd Nwmk)
28/07/20 Cl 2 Hcap (187/96.3) 10f gd Good 9-5 15/2 3/18 5l off 103
close up, pushed along 2f out, ridden and stayed on towards finish
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W8f/F10f), (course (W); form run lto (60 days); down 2lbs (wt);
Minus:
Verdict: won 8f Cl 2 on hcap debut here in June; raised 5lbs he was made second favourite for the Hunt Cup, but stayed on one pace to finish 6th; upped to 10f at Goodwood and finished 3rd to Maydenny who had flown, 0.5l ahead of Derevo (-7) in 4th with Fifth Position (+1) down in 8th; not been seen since, and meets D on 1lb worse terms and FP on the same terms; little worried about the break, but seems well enough drawn and showed last time that he’ll get the trip.
Lucander 3-8-7 (98) Dr 18 (9.7)
’19 record: 3/1/5 Best: 161.2 off 84 carrying 9-4 (Cl 2 8f sf York)
’20 record: 1/1/3 Best: 186.1 off 94 carrying 8-7 (Cl 2 10.5 sf York)
22/08/20 Cl 2 Hcap (187/92.1) 10.5f sf York 8-7 10/1 1/15 1.75l off 94
dwelt towards rear, headway 2f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, ran on
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (10.5f W/ 8f W); form run lto (35 days);
Minus: course; up 4lbs (OR);
Verdict: won well at York lto and could well confirm the running with Fifth Position, as he seems to have more to come; one note of caution, penultimate run at Newmarket over 10f had him weakening from 1f out.
Unique in its thundering straight 9f run, there are not a lot of stats that apply. I’m going for the double digit draws, with a preference for those that have shown the speed. I’m not so hot on Derevo, as he seems to always find something ‘wrong’, so he’s the first to go. I also have to vote against Fifth Position, as he’s got more weight than last year and hasn’t really shown that he’s improved that much. The favourite, Tempus I can’t afford to leave, as he almost certainly is a future Group horse bidding his farewells to handicaps. So Tempus it is, from the 3yo Lucander and Bell Rock.
Newmarket 15.35 Cl 2 Handicap 747 (96.8) 9f gd – 29 Run
3yo = 5lbs wfa allowance
Last year – 996 (95.0) – 30 ran
Lord North 9/2 F 3-8-10 (98) Dr 29 by 0.75l from Beringer 16/1 4-8-9 (97) Dr 15
Good Birthday 9/1 3-8-10 (98) Dr 32 was 4.75l 3rd
Majestic Dawn 8/1 3-8-1 (89) Dr 20 was 5.5l 5th
Fifth Position 10/1 3-8-12 (100) Dr 24 was 6.8l 8th
You’re Hired 33/1 6-8-4 (87) Dr 31 was 9.4l 11th
Afaak 20/1 5-9-10 (107) Dr 2 was 13.65l 18th
Zhui Feng 50/1 6-9-1 (98) Dr 4 was 17.4l 23rd
Tempus 4-8-11 (97) Dr 22 (3.2)
’19 record: 2/0/3
‘20 record: 2/0/2 Best: 190.6 off 93 carrying 9-1 (Cl 2 8f gd Ascot)
04/09/20 Cl 2 Hcap (156/97.6) 8f gd Ascot 9-1 13/8 F 1/8 1.5l off 93
tracked leaders going well, led over 1f out, ran on well
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (8.5f W); form run lto (22 days); down 4lbs (wt);
Minus: distance (9f/ 10f ?); course (?); 4lbs penalty;
Verdict: 4/6 career best and looks to be going places; has never rub in a race of more than 10 runners, so that’s a question, as is his ability to get 9f; could start at very short price.
Derevo 4-8-9 (95) Dr 11 (4.0)
’19 record: 3/0/5 Best: 181.3 off 91 carrying 8-13 (Cl 3 12.5f AW Newcs)
’20 record: 0/2/4 Best: 187.8 off 95 carrying 9-3 (Cl 2 10f gd Donc)
09/09/20 Cl 2 Hcap (162/94.3) 10f gd Donc 9-3 9/4 F 2/14 0.75l off 95
mid-division in main group, ridden to challenge and led over 1f out, ran on well, headed final 100yds
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W10f); form run lto (17 days); down 8lbs (wt);
Minus: distance (8f?); course;
Verdict: won over 10f (twice) and 12.5f last year, but hasn’t got his head in front this, being behind several of his rivals on several occasions; looked like he was going to break the streak lto, but got caught late on at Doncaster; the drop back in trip might help, although has never tried 8f or 9f’.
Fifth Position 4-9-4 (104) Dr 18 (5.0)
’19 record: 1/0/9
‘20 record: 1/3/5 Best: 195.8 off 104 carrying 9-6 (Cl 2 10.5f gd York)
22/08/20 Cl 2 Hcap (187/92.1) 10.5f sf York 9-10 5/1 3/15 1.85l off 104
towards rear, headway near side over 2f out, ridden edged left and ran on towards finish
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (10 W/ 8.5f W); down 6lbs (wt);
Minus: course;
Verdict: best performance when 4l 3rd to Sinjaari (-9) in the John Smith’s and obviously likes York as he was a close 3rd to Lucander (-15) lto; meets S on 8lbs and L on 4lbs better terms, which should make it closer with L; is 4lbs higher than last year, and any rain will be welcome.
Bell Rock 4-9-3 (103) Dr 24 (5.1)
’19 record: 0/0/3
’20 record: 1/1/3 Best: 194.7 off 98 carrying 9-5 (Cl 2 8f gd Nwmk)
28/07/20 Cl 2 Hcap (187/96.3) 10f gd Good 9-5 15/2 3/18 5l off 103
close up, pushed along 2f out, ridden and stayed on towards finish
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W8f/F10f), (course (W); form run lto (60 days); down 2lbs (wt);
Minus:
Verdict: won 8f Cl 2 on hcap debut here in June; raised 5lbs he was made second favourite for the Hunt Cup, but stayed on one pace to finish 6th; upped to 10f at Goodwood and finished 3rd to Maydenny who had flown, 0.5l ahead of Derevo (-7) in 4th with Fifth Position (+1) down in 8th; not been seen since, and meets D on 1lb worse terms and FP on the same terms; little worried about the break, but seems well enough drawn and showed last time that he’ll get the trip.
Lucander 3-8-7 (98) Dr 18 (9.7)
’19 record: 3/1/5 Best: 161.2 off 84 carrying 9-4 (Cl 2 8f sf York)
’20 record: 1/1/3 Best: 186.1 off 94 carrying 8-7 (Cl 2 10.5 sf York)
22/08/20 Cl 2 Hcap (187/92.1) 10.5f sf York 8-7 10/1 1/15 1.75l off 94
dwelt towards rear, headway 2f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, ran on
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (10.5f W/ 8f W); form run lto (35 days);
Minus: course; up 4lbs (OR);
Verdict: won well at York lto and could well confirm the running with Fifth Position, as he seems to have more to come; one note of caution, penultimate run at Newmarket over 10f had him weakening from 1f out.
Unique in its thundering straight 9f run, there are not a lot of stats that apply. I’m going for the double digit draws, with a preference for those that have shown the speed. I’m not so hot on Derevo, as he seems to always find something ‘wrong’, so he’s the first to go. I also have to vote against Fifth Position, as he’s got more weight than last year and hasn’t really shown that he’s improved that much. The favourite, Tempus I can’t afford to leave, as he almost certainly is a future Group horse bidding his farewells to handicaps. So Tempus it is, from the 3yo Lucander and Bell Rock.