Post by Old Timer on Sept 19, 2020 11:17:48 GMT
Just goes to show that when you least expect, up pops a winner. Having got one yesterday, I don’t expect one today!
Newbury 14.15 Cl 2 Handicap 249 (92.0) 10f gd – 13 Run
3yo = 5lbs wfa allowance
Last year – 436 (96.0) gd/fm 13 ran
Caradoc 5/1 4-9-0 (95) Dr 4 by 0.5l from Great Example 10/1 3-8-10 (96) Dr 1
Good Birthday 4-8-13 (90) Dr 11 (0.2)
’19 record: 2/2/6 Best: 190.2 off 95 carrying 9-0 (Cl 2 10f gd Bev)
’20 record: 0/1/6 Best: 181.8 off 92 carrying 8-13 (Cl 2 10f gd Sand)
09/09/20 Cl 2 Hcap (104/88.8) 11f AW Kemp 9-10 11/1 3/5 1.5l off 90
towards rear, ridden and headway 2f out, ran on
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run (10 days); down 9lbs (wt); down 1 furlong;
Minus:
Verdict: progressive as a 3yo winning 3 times and finishing 3rd in the Cambridgeshire; yet to strike, although some improvement for the fitting of cheekpieces 3 races back; maybe prep run for another joust at the Cambridgeshire.
Starcat 3-8-11 (93) Dr 10 (4.2)
’19 record: 1/0/1
’20 record: 0/2/4 Best: 180.8 off 94 carrying 8-8 (Cl 2 10f gd Donc)
09/09/20 Cl 2 Hcap (162/94.3) 10f gd Donc 8-10 9/2 4/14 3.75l off 94
mid-division in main group, pushed along over 2f out, ran on inside final furlong
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (F); from run lto (10 days); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: course (?); up 1lb (wt);
Verdict: won Kempton novice on only start at 2yo and thought good enough to run in 2000 Guineas on 3yo debut, not being disgraced in finishing midfield after a troubled passage; found it better when stepped up to 10f , especially lto when a tongue-tie applied for the first time; must have a chance today.
Ilaraab 3-8-8 (90) Dr 12 (11.8)
’20 record: 3/0/4 Best 170.2 off 84 carrying 8-4 (Cl 2 10f sf Bev)
27/08/20 Cl 2 3yo-Hcap (97/86.2) 10f sf Bev 8-4 16/5 1/4 0.25l off 84
raced in 2nd, relegated to third 3f out, ridden to chase leader over 2f out, led narrowly over 1f out, drifted left but kept on strongly final furlong
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (23 days);
Minus: course (?); up 4lbs (wt); up 6lbs (OR); makes all-aged hcap debut;
Verdict: late developer and didn’t race until June, but after getting acquainted with the racecourse has rattled off a hat-trick of wins, the latest in a 3yo-hcap at Beverley; raised 6lbs for that and definitely steps up in class, but not finished improving yet.
Tenbury Wells 3-8-8 (90) Dr 1 (12.8)
’19 record: 0/0/1
’20 record: 2/1/4 Best: 169.2 off 87 carrying 9-5 (Cl 3 10f gd/sf Sand)
22/08/20 Cl 3 3yo-Hcap (93/82.4) 10f gd/sf Sand 9-5 7/2 2/10 0.05l off 87
chased leaders on outside, went 2nd 7f out, led 2f out and sent for home, ridden over 1f out, caught post
Plus: going (W); distance (W); form run lto (28 days); down 11lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 3lbs (OR); up in class; all-aged hcap debut;
Verdict: improving sort and only just caught late on at Sandown when Kingbrook (+1)was 1.75 back in 3rd on his season debut; TW is up 3lbs for that, but should handles it in his stride, although Kingbrook may be closer this time;; however, they’re both stepping upin class.
Good Birthday looks as if he may be returning to form, but I’d like to see him replicate some of last year’s form first. Ilahaab is obviously improving, but he’s rising in class and taking on all-aged horses carrying 6lbs extra; it might prove a bit too much. Maydanny was brilliant at Goodwood, but abysmal at York and that run can be forgotten. However, I think he has a bit too much weight here and is sadly passed over. That leaves me with Starcat, Tenbury Wells and potentially, Kingbrook. I have to go with Starcat to get the better of Tenbury Wells, who might have a tough task in seeing off Kingbrook this time.
Ayr 15.40 Cl 2 Handicap 467 (98.6) 6f gd/sf – 25 Run (24 at best)
3yo = 2lbs wfa allowance
Last year – 1245 (100.0) gd – 24 ran
Angel Alexander 28/1 3-8-13 (101) Dr 24 by 0.5l from Growl 28/1 7-8-9 (96) Dr 18
Gulliver 8/1 5-8-12 (98) Dr 9 was 1l 3rd
Soldier’s Minute 18/1 4-8-10 (96) Dr 3 was 2.2l 7th
Arecibo 10/1 4-8-12 (98) Dr 17 was 2.7l 8th
Staxton 16/1 4-8-12 (98) Dr 4 was 2.97l 10th ‘
Major Jumbo 16/1 5-9-8 (108) Dr 20 was 3.85l 14th
Cold Stare 40/1 4-8-12 (98) Dr 11 was 4.35l 15th
Hey Jonesy10/1 4-9-3 (103) Dr 8 was 5.1l 16th
Stone Of Destiny 33/1 4-8-13 (99) Dr 22 was 6.7l 18th
Mr Lupton 20/1 6-9-7 (110) Dr 1 was 6.97l 20th
Barbill 25/1 3-8-9 (97) Dr 6 was 7.02l 21st
Nahaarr 4-9-5 (100) Dr 13 (6.1)
‘19 record: 4/0/5
’20 record: 1/1/4 Best: 192.5 off 94 carrying 9-2 (Cl 4 6f gd Newb)
01/08/20 Cl 2 Hcap (467/96.2) 6f gd/fm Good 9-3 3/1 F 9/27 2.75l off 101
raced centre, mid-division, headway over 2f out, driven and edged left over 1f out, held final 100 yards
Plus: class (F); distance (W); form run lto (49 days); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: going (?); course (?); up 2lbs (wt);
Verdict: fine strake rating of over 50% and was made favourite for the Steward’s Cup, and only just defeated inside the final furlong; has been dropped 1lb and looks likely to be favourite again; now doubting his credentials, though.
Barbill 4-9-7 (102) Dr 12 (12.1)
’19 record: 0/0/8
’20 record: 2/0/4 Best: 185.5 off 97 carrying 9-9 (Cl 2 6f gd/sf Chest)
12/09/20 Cl 2 Hcap (311/82.8) 5.5 gd Donc 9-7 18/1 6/21 4.25l off 100
towards rear far side, pushed along over 2f out, ridden and ran on final furlong, nearest finish
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (7 days);
Minus: course; up 2lbs (OR);
Verdict: good win at Chester followed by a creditable run in the Portland; however, that was only 7 days ago and historically when it’s less than a fortnight, they don’t win!
Bielsa 5-9-4 (99) Dr 22 (13.2)
’19 record: 3/0/4 Best: 184.4 off 93 carrying 9-4 (Cl 2 6f hv Donc)
’20 record: 0/0/3 Best: 162.9 off 99 carrying 9-12 (
04/09/20 Cl 2 Hcap (129/90.9) 6f sf Hayd 9-12 9/4 F 5/7 6.75l off 99
led group of three racing on near side rail, pushed along over 2f out, weakened from 1f out, 2nd of 3 in group
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); last run (15 days); minus 8lbs (wt);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: had breathing op before last run at Haydock and obviously needed the race; would come into the equation based on last season’s form.
Wise Counsel 4-9-3 (98) Dr 18 (15.4)
’19 record: 2/1/4 Best: 178.7 off 91 carrying 9-3 (Cl 3 7f gd Ayr)
’20 record: 0/1/2 Best: 181.2 off 98 carrying 8-12 (Cl 2 7rf Ascot gd)
05/09/20
Cl 2 Hcap (216/95.5) 7f gd Ascot 8-12 18/1 8/17 4.1l off 98
dwelt in rear when groups merged over 3f out, pushed along over 2f out, kept on inside final furlong, not trouble leaders
Plus: class (F+); going (W); distance (W); course (W); last race (14 days); first-time cheek-pieces;
Minus: up 5lbs (wt);
Verdict: not overly raced and just the two starts this year; 3rd in 6f listed race at Goodwood in June and not seen then until running a respectable race in a high quality 7f race at Ascot; won here over 7f last year and not without a chance,
My shortlist is rather taken on a trends basis, and I would point out that in the last 20 years only 2 winners have been absent less than 10 days (both 8 days), which does make a point of the fact that the Portland is not a good trial for winners and you have to go back to 2003 and 2004 when they were 10 days apart and the Portland winner won. That’s a long way round of telling you I’m not supporting Stone Of Destiny, Arecibo, Soldier’s Minute and, sadly, Barbil who had made my shortlist another way. That leaves me with three, which is nice, and I’ll leave the favourite in favour of Wise Counsel with Bielsa as my outside choice. So for me it’s Wise Counsel from Nahaarr with Bielsa in third, and if I land that…..
Newbury 14.15 Cl 2 Handicap 249 (92.0) 10f gd – 13 Run
3yo = 5lbs wfa allowance
Last year – 436 (96.0) gd/fm 13 ran
Caradoc 5/1 4-9-0 (95) Dr 4 by 0.5l from Great Example 10/1 3-8-10 (96) Dr 1
Good Birthday 4-8-13 (90) Dr 11 (0.2)
’19 record: 2/2/6 Best: 190.2 off 95 carrying 9-0 (Cl 2 10f gd Bev)
’20 record: 0/1/6 Best: 181.8 off 92 carrying 8-13 (Cl 2 10f gd Sand)
09/09/20 Cl 2 Hcap (104/88.8) 11f AW Kemp 9-10 11/1 3/5 1.5l off 90
towards rear, ridden and headway 2f out, ran on
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run (10 days); down 9lbs (wt); down 1 furlong;
Minus:
Verdict: progressive as a 3yo winning 3 times and finishing 3rd in the Cambridgeshire; yet to strike, although some improvement for the fitting of cheekpieces 3 races back; maybe prep run for another joust at the Cambridgeshire.
Starcat 3-8-11 (93) Dr 10 (4.2)
’19 record: 1/0/1
’20 record: 0/2/4 Best: 180.8 off 94 carrying 8-8 (Cl 2 10f gd Donc)
09/09/20 Cl 2 Hcap (162/94.3) 10f gd Donc 8-10 9/2 4/14 3.75l off 94
mid-division in main group, pushed along over 2f out, ran on inside final furlong
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (F); from run lto (10 days); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: course (?); up 1lb (wt);
Verdict: won Kempton novice on only start at 2yo and thought good enough to run in 2000 Guineas on 3yo debut, not being disgraced in finishing midfield after a troubled passage; found it better when stepped up to 10f , especially lto when a tongue-tie applied for the first time; must have a chance today.
Ilaraab 3-8-8 (90) Dr 12 (11.8)
’20 record: 3/0/4 Best 170.2 off 84 carrying 8-4 (Cl 2 10f sf Bev)
27/08/20 Cl 2 3yo-Hcap (97/86.2) 10f sf Bev 8-4 16/5 1/4 0.25l off 84
raced in 2nd, relegated to third 3f out, ridden to chase leader over 2f out, led narrowly over 1f out, drifted left but kept on strongly final furlong
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (23 days);
Minus: course (?); up 4lbs (wt); up 6lbs (OR); makes all-aged hcap debut;
Verdict: late developer and didn’t race until June, but after getting acquainted with the racecourse has rattled off a hat-trick of wins, the latest in a 3yo-hcap at Beverley; raised 6lbs for that and definitely steps up in class, but not finished improving yet.
Tenbury Wells 3-8-8 (90) Dr 1 (12.8)
’19 record: 0/0/1
’20 record: 2/1/4 Best: 169.2 off 87 carrying 9-5 (Cl 3 10f gd/sf Sand)
22/08/20 Cl 3 3yo-Hcap (93/82.4) 10f gd/sf Sand 9-5 7/2 2/10 0.05l off 87
chased leaders on outside, went 2nd 7f out, led 2f out and sent for home, ridden over 1f out, caught post
Plus: going (W); distance (W); form run lto (28 days); down 11lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 3lbs (OR); up in class; all-aged hcap debut;
Verdict: improving sort and only just caught late on at Sandown when Kingbrook (+1)was 1.75 back in 3rd on his season debut; TW is up 3lbs for that, but should handles it in his stride, although Kingbrook may be closer this time;; however, they’re both stepping upin class.
Good Birthday looks as if he may be returning to form, but I’d like to see him replicate some of last year’s form first. Ilahaab is obviously improving, but he’s rising in class and taking on all-aged horses carrying 6lbs extra; it might prove a bit too much. Maydanny was brilliant at Goodwood, but abysmal at York and that run can be forgotten. However, I think he has a bit too much weight here and is sadly passed over. That leaves me with Starcat, Tenbury Wells and potentially, Kingbrook. I have to go with Starcat to get the better of Tenbury Wells, who might have a tough task in seeing off Kingbrook this time.
Ayr 15.40 Cl 2 Handicap 467 (98.6) 6f gd/sf – 25 Run (24 at best)
3yo = 2lbs wfa allowance
Last year – 1245 (100.0) gd – 24 ran
Angel Alexander 28/1 3-8-13 (101) Dr 24 by 0.5l from Growl 28/1 7-8-9 (96) Dr 18
Gulliver 8/1 5-8-12 (98) Dr 9 was 1l 3rd
Soldier’s Minute 18/1 4-8-10 (96) Dr 3 was 2.2l 7th
Arecibo 10/1 4-8-12 (98) Dr 17 was 2.7l 8th
Staxton 16/1 4-8-12 (98) Dr 4 was 2.97l 10th ‘
Major Jumbo 16/1 5-9-8 (108) Dr 20 was 3.85l 14th
Cold Stare 40/1 4-8-12 (98) Dr 11 was 4.35l 15th
Hey Jonesy10/1 4-9-3 (103) Dr 8 was 5.1l 16th
Stone Of Destiny 33/1 4-8-13 (99) Dr 22 was 6.7l 18th
Mr Lupton 20/1 6-9-7 (110) Dr 1 was 6.97l 20th
Barbill 25/1 3-8-9 (97) Dr 6 was 7.02l 21st
Nahaarr 4-9-5 (100) Dr 13 (6.1)
‘19 record: 4/0/5
’20 record: 1/1/4 Best: 192.5 off 94 carrying 9-2 (Cl 4 6f gd Newb)
01/08/20 Cl 2 Hcap (467/96.2) 6f gd/fm Good 9-3 3/1 F 9/27 2.75l off 101
raced centre, mid-division, headway over 2f out, driven and edged left over 1f out, held final 100 yards
Plus: class (F); distance (W); form run lto (49 days); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: going (?); course (?); up 2lbs (wt);
Verdict: fine strake rating of over 50% and was made favourite for the Steward’s Cup, and only just defeated inside the final furlong; has been dropped 1lb and looks likely to be favourite again; now doubting his credentials, though.
Barbill 4-9-7 (102) Dr 12 (12.1)
’19 record: 0/0/8
’20 record: 2/0/4 Best: 185.5 off 97 carrying 9-9 (Cl 2 6f gd/sf Chest)
12/09/20 Cl 2 Hcap (311/82.8) 5.5 gd Donc 9-7 18/1 6/21 4.25l off 100
towards rear far side, pushed along over 2f out, ridden and ran on final furlong, nearest finish
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (7 days);
Minus: course; up 2lbs (OR);
Verdict: good win at Chester followed by a creditable run in the Portland; however, that was only 7 days ago and historically when it’s less than a fortnight, they don’t win!
Bielsa 5-9-4 (99) Dr 22 (13.2)
’19 record: 3/0/4 Best: 184.4 off 93 carrying 9-4 (Cl 2 6f hv Donc)
’20 record: 0/0/3 Best: 162.9 off 99 carrying 9-12 (
04/09/20 Cl 2 Hcap (129/90.9) 6f sf Hayd 9-12 9/4 F 5/7 6.75l off 99
led group of three racing on near side rail, pushed along over 2f out, weakened from 1f out, 2nd of 3 in group
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); last run (15 days); minus 8lbs (wt);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: had breathing op before last run at Haydock and obviously needed the race; would come into the equation based on last season’s form.
Wise Counsel 4-9-3 (98) Dr 18 (15.4)
’19 record: 2/1/4 Best: 178.7 off 91 carrying 9-3 (Cl 3 7f gd Ayr)
’20 record: 0/1/2 Best: 181.2 off 98 carrying 8-12 (Cl 2 7rf Ascot gd)
05/09/20
Cl 2 Hcap (216/95.5) 7f gd Ascot 8-12 18/1 8/17 4.1l off 98
dwelt in rear when groups merged over 3f out, pushed along over 2f out, kept on inside final furlong, not trouble leaders
Plus: class (F+); going (W); distance (W); course (W); last race (14 days); first-time cheek-pieces;
Minus: up 5lbs (wt);
Verdict: not overly raced and just the two starts this year; 3rd in 6f listed race at Goodwood in June and not seen then until running a respectable race in a high quality 7f race at Ascot; won here over 7f last year and not without a chance,
My shortlist is rather taken on a trends basis, and I would point out that in the last 20 years only 2 winners have been absent less than 10 days (both 8 days), which does make a point of the fact that the Portland is not a good trial for winners and you have to go back to 2003 and 2004 when they were 10 days apart and the Portland winner won. That’s a long way round of telling you I’m not supporting Stone Of Destiny, Arecibo, Soldier’s Minute and, sadly, Barbil who had made my shortlist another way. That leaves me with three, which is nice, and I’ll leave the favourite in favour of Wise Counsel with Bielsa as my outside choice. So for me it’s Wise Counsel from Nahaarr with Bielsa in third, and if I land that…..