Post by Old Timer on Sept 9, 2020 11:14:34 GMT
Doncaster 15.45 Cl 2 Handicap 162 (94.3) 10f gd/sf – 14 Run
3yo = 6lbs wfa allowance
Last year: 156 (95.7) 10f gd/fm – 7 ran
Davydenko 11/10 F 3-9-7 (98) Dr 1 by 1.5l from Certain Lad 7/1 3-9-7 (98) Dr 8
Sky Defender 4-9-12 (104) Dr 14 (-1.3)
’19 record: 1/0/4 Best: 166.1 off 85 carrying 8-10 (Cl 3 10f AW Ling)
’20 record: 3/5/12 Best: 192.6 off 104 carrying 9-10 (Cl 2 10.5f sf York)
29/08/20 Gr 3 Stks (210/) 10f sf Wind 9-5 17/2 3/5 3.75l off 104
led, joined 3f out, headed over 1f out, 3rd and no extra inside final furlong
22/08/20 Cl 2 (187/92.1) 10.5f sf York 9-10 28/1 2/15 1.75l off 104
tracked leaders, ridden to lead over 2f out, headed over 1f out, rallied to lead again inside final furlong, soon headed, stayed on
Plus: class (W); distance (W); recent run (11 days); recent form run (18 days); down in class;
Minus: going (?); course;
Verdict: save the John Smith’s at York, he has been remarkably consistent since his return to turf; however, the handicapper has seemed to have his measure for he has ‘failed’ four times off 104; today Joe Fanning hands over the ride to a 7lbs claimer, and that leaves him carrying only 9-5, which is a very attractive weight.
Data Protection 5-8-11 (89) Dr 6 (3.0)
’19 record: 2/4/11 Best: 160.8 off 83 carrying 9-10 (Cl 4 10f hv Wind)
’20 record: 2/2/6 Best: 180.0 off 85 carrying 8-6 (Cl 2 10f gd Sand)
23/08/20 Cl 2 Hcap (156/95.0) 10f gd Sand 8-6 14/1 1/10 0.75l off 85
led 1f, tracked leader, tracked new leader 1f out, stayed on to lead again final 150 yards
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (17 days);
Minus: course (?); up 5lbs (wt); up 4lbs (OR);
Verdict: continued to improve this season, having won off 9lbs higher than his highest mark least term; however, raised a further 4lbs for his latest success at Sandown; may be a bit vulnerable to one of the younger horses.
Derevo 4-9-3 (95) Dr 10 (5.7)
’19 record: 3/0/5 Best: 181.3 off 91 carrying 8-13 (Cl 3 12.5f AW Newcs)
’20 record: 0/1/3 Best: 183.6 off 96 carrying 9-4 (Cl 2 10f gd Donc)
22/08/20 Cl 2 (187/92.1) 10.5f sf York 9-2 7/2 6/15 6.15l off 96
dwelt and bumped start, held up, headway 3f out, ridden and no impression final furlong
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (F); recent outing (15 days); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: up 1lb (wt);
Verdict: won 3 times last season, but hasn’t enjoyed the best of luck this; disrupted at the start at York, he nevertheless finished near enough 4.5l back of Sky Defender (+8) and with the rider’s claim only gets 2lbs today; similarly on previous run at Goodwood be received 12lbs from SD and was beaten just over 0.5l; SD looks to have his measure today.
Caradoc 5-9-5 (97) Dr 8 (6.2)
’19 record: 3/1/7 Best: 191.0 off 95 carrying 9-0 (Cl 2 10f gd/fm Newb)
’20 record: 0/0/3 Best: 185.1 off 100 carrying 9-2 (Cl 2 10.5f gd York)
08/08/20 Cl 2 Hcap (129/95.2) 12f gd/fm Ascot 9-6 4/1 11/12 4.8l off 99
raced keenly towards rear, not clear run and switched left inside final 2f, no headway when in the clear
Plus: class (W); distance (W); recent outing (32 days); down 1lb (wt); down 2lbs (OR); drop in distance (2f);
Minus: going (?); course (?);
Verdict: won 4 times last season but hasn’t got going this and is still 2lbs above last winning mark; was down the field to Sky Defender and with the latter rider’s claim is only 1lb better off today; chance on last season’s form, not on this.
Starcat 3-8-10 (94) Dr 14 (9.3)
’19 record: 1/0/1
’20 record: 0/1/3 Best: 179.0 off 94 carrying 9-0 (Cl 2 10f gd Good)
30/07/20 Cl 2 3yo-Hcap (187/90.0) 10f gd Good 9-0 15/2 5/11 2.5l off 94
held up in rear, headway towards inside 2f out, ridden chasing leaders over 1f out, edged right and kept on towards finish, never enough pace to threaten
Plus: recent last run (41 days); down 4lbs (wt);
Minus: class; going (?); distance; course (?); takes on older horses for the first time;
Verdict: won only 2yo start and ran credibly in the Guineas Trial; lost on the going (?) at Ascot and improved for step up to 10f at Goodwood lto; however, promise that has yet be delivered and not a favourite to me despite being fitted with a tongue-tie for the first time..
Strait Of Hormuz 3-8-4 (88) Dr 11 (11.8)
’19 record: 1/1/3
’20 record; 1/1/3 Best: 170.5 off 87 carrying 9-3 (Cl 3 10.5f gs/sf Chest)
14/08/20 Cl 3 Hcap (100/84) 10.5f gd/sf Chest 9-3 4/1 F 9-3 2/13 0. 25l off 87
keen tracked leaders, pushed along over 2f out, ridden and headway inside final furlong, soon chased winner, ran on
Plus: going (F); distance (F); form run lto (26 days); down 13lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 1lb (OR); up in class;
Verdict: looks to building into a genuine handicapper and gets in here off a low weight; promising effort at Chester on gd/sf, although Chester form often doesn’t travel, one of the more credible 3yo.
And there’s yet another one to consider, the aptly named Hypothetical, though what he amounts to your guess would be as good as mine. The fact that he’s trained by Gosden has a lot to do with it, but I don’t honestly expect too much from him today. I may be wrong, but I can’t really fancy him.
There have been three 5yo winners in 13 years and I don’t think Cartadoc or Data Protection are going to add to the number today. As for the 3yos, they are a little sparse on form but I prefer Strait Of Hormuz to Starcat, although the tongue-tie might help.
Derevo represents last year’s winning stable, but like several others, he does have some weight to make up with Sky Defender, if you reduce the weight by the claim. So for me it’s Sky Defender from Derevo and Strait Of Hormuz, with Hypothetical hypothetically soiling the day!
3yo = 6lbs wfa allowance
Last year: 156 (95.7) 10f gd/fm – 7 ran
Davydenko 11/10 F 3-9-7 (98) Dr 1 by 1.5l from Certain Lad 7/1 3-9-7 (98) Dr 8
Sky Defender 4-9-12 (104) Dr 14 (-1.3)
’19 record: 1/0/4 Best: 166.1 off 85 carrying 8-10 (Cl 3 10f AW Ling)
’20 record: 3/5/12 Best: 192.6 off 104 carrying 9-10 (Cl 2 10.5f sf York)
29/08/20 Gr 3 Stks (210/) 10f sf Wind 9-5 17/2 3/5 3.75l off 104
led, joined 3f out, headed over 1f out, 3rd and no extra inside final furlong
22/08/20 Cl 2 (187/92.1) 10.5f sf York 9-10 28/1 2/15 1.75l off 104
tracked leaders, ridden to lead over 2f out, headed over 1f out, rallied to lead again inside final furlong, soon headed, stayed on
Plus: class (W); distance (W); recent run (11 days); recent form run (18 days); down in class;
Minus: going (?); course;
Verdict: save the John Smith’s at York, he has been remarkably consistent since his return to turf; however, the handicapper has seemed to have his measure for he has ‘failed’ four times off 104; today Joe Fanning hands over the ride to a 7lbs claimer, and that leaves him carrying only 9-5, which is a very attractive weight.
Data Protection 5-8-11 (89) Dr 6 (3.0)
’19 record: 2/4/11 Best: 160.8 off 83 carrying 9-10 (Cl 4 10f hv Wind)
’20 record: 2/2/6 Best: 180.0 off 85 carrying 8-6 (Cl 2 10f gd Sand)
23/08/20 Cl 2 Hcap (156/95.0) 10f gd Sand 8-6 14/1 1/10 0.75l off 85
led 1f, tracked leader, tracked new leader 1f out, stayed on to lead again final 150 yards
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (17 days);
Minus: course (?); up 5lbs (wt); up 4lbs (OR);
Verdict: continued to improve this season, having won off 9lbs higher than his highest mark least term; however, raised a further 4lbs for his latest success at Sandown; may be a bit vulnerable to one of the younger horses.
Derevo 4-9-3 (95) Dr 10 (5.7)
’19 record: 3/0/5 Best: 181.3 off 91 carrying 8-13 (Cl 3 12.5f AW Newcs)
’20 record: 0/1/3 Best: 183.6 off 96 carrying 9-4 (Cl 2 10f gd Donc)
22/08/20 Cl 2 (187/92.1) 10.5f sf York 9-2 7/2 6/15 6.15l off 96
dwelt and bumped start, held up, headway 3f out, ridden and no impression final furlong
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (F); recent outing (15 days); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: up 1lb (wt);
Verdict: won 3 times last season, but hasn’t enjoyed the best of luck this; disrupted at the start at York, he nevertheless finished near enough 4.5l back of Sky Defender (+8) and with the rider’s claim only gets 2lbs today; similarly on previous run at Goodwood be received 12lbs from SD and was beaten just over 0.5l; SD looks to have his measure today.
Caradoc 5-9-5 (97) Dr 8 (6.2)
’19 record: 3/1/7 Best: 191.0 off 95 carrying 9-0 (Cl 2 10f gd/fm Newb)
’20 record: 0/0/3 Best: 185.1 off 100 carrying 9-2 (Cl 2 10.5f gd York)
08/08/20 Cl 2 Hcap (129/95.2) 12f gd/fm Ascot 9-6 4/1 11/12 4.8l off 99
raced keenly towards rear, not clear run and switched left inside final 2f, no headway when in the clear
Plus: class (W); distance (W); recent outing (32 days); down 1lb (wt); down 2lbs (OR); drop in distance (2f);
Minus: going (?); course (?);
Verdict: won 4 times last season but hasn’t got going this and is still 2lbs above last winning mark; was down the field to Sky Defender and with the latter rider’s claim is only 1lb better off today; chance on last season’s form, not on this.
Starcat 3-8-10 (94) Dr 14 (9.3)
’19 record: 1/0/1
’20 record: 0/1/3 Best: 179.0 off 94 carrying 9-0 (Cl 2 10f gd Good)
30/07/20 Cl 2 3yo-Hcap (187/90.0) 10f gd Good 9-0 15/2 5/11 2.5l off 94
held up in rear, headway towards inside 2f out, ridden chasing leaders over 1f out, edged right and kept on towards finish, never enough pace to threaten
Plus: recent last run (41 days); down 4lbs (wt);
Minus: class; going (?); distance; course (?); takes on older horses for the first time;
Verdict: won only 2yo start and ran credibly in the Guineas Trial; lost on the going (?) at Ascot and improved for step up to 10f at Goodwood lto; however, promise that has yet be delivered and not a favourite to me despite being fitted with a tongue-tie for the first time..
Strait Of Hormuz 3-8-4 (88) Dr 11 (11.8)
’19 record: 1/1/3
’20 record; 1/1/3 Best: 170.5 off 87 carrying 9-3 (Cl 3 10.5f gs/sf Chest)
14/08/20 Cl 3 Hcap (100/84) 10.5f gd/sf Chest 9-3 4/1 F 9-3 2/13 0. 25l off 87
keen tracked leaders, pushed along over 2f out, ridden and headway inside final furlong, soon chased winner, ran on
Plus: going (F); distance (F); form run lto (26 days); down 13lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 1lb (OR); up in class;
Verdict: looks to building into a genuine handicapper and gets in here off a low weight; promising effort at Chester on gd/sf, although Chester form often doesn’t travel, one of the more credible 3yo.
And there’s yet another one to consider, the aptly named Hypothetical, though what he amounts to your guess would be as good as mine. The fact that he’s trained by Gosden has a lot to do with it, but I don’t honestly expect too much from him today. I may be wrong, but I can’t really fancy him.
There have been three 5yo winners in 13 years and I don’t think Cartadoc or Data Protection are going to add to the number today. As for the 3yos, they are a little sparse on form but I prefer Strait Of Hormuz to Starcat, although the tongue-tie might help.
Derevo represents last year’s winning stable, but like several others, he does have some weight to make up with Sky Defender, if you reduce the weight by the claim. So for me it’s Sky Defender from Derevo and Strait Of Hormuz, with Hypothetical hypothetically soiling the day!