Post by Old Timer on Sept 4, 2020 11:31:55 GMT
Monday proved pleasing and we've some interesting racing on a Friday for once, although they could be a little trappy. Still, nothing ventured, nothing gained.
Ascot 15.40 Cl 2 Handicap 162 (93.6) 12f gd/sf – 9 Run
3yo = 8lbs wfa allowance
Laafy 4-10-0 (101) Dr 9 (0.3)
‘19 record: 2/2/7 Best: 174.1 off 85 carrying 8-10 (Cl 3 14f hv)
’20 record: 1/1/3 Best: 194.3 off 98 carrying 9-3 (Cl 2 12f sf)
01/08/20 Cl 2 Hcap (311/95.2) 14f gd/fm Good 9-7 9/4F 6/9 5.25l off 101
chased leaders, beaten and hanging right 2f out, well held final furlong
05/07/20 Cl 2 Hcap (374/98.8) 12f sf Hayd 9-3 7/2 F 2/16 1.25l off 98
close up, ridden to lead briefly over 1f out, chased winner, edged left inside final furlong, stayed on
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); recent run (34 days); latest form run (61 days); down in trip (2f);
Minus: course; up 7lbs (wt);
Verdict: won Cl 2 over 12f at Newbury on return and then turned in a career best in the Old Newton Cup at Haydock off 98; made favourite for a 14f hcap at Goodwood, but never looked to be going well, possibly course or going; failed on previous trip to Ascot but that was over 16f, and he didn’t stay; definite chance today despite carrying top weight.
Look Closely 4-9-12 (99) Dr 5 (1.4)
’19 record: 1/2/4
’20 record: 2/0/3 Best: 191.2 off 96 carrying 9-3 (Cl 2 12f gd/fm)
09/08/20 Cl 2 Hcap (125/95.2) 12f gd/fm Ascot 9-3 7/2 F 1/12 0.1l off 96
soon tracking leader from wide draw, challenged 2f out, ridden to lead over 1f out, all out
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (27 days);
Minus: going; up 9lbs (wt); up 3lbs (OR);
Verdict: failure on gd/sf was on his debut, so not definitive; after a pipe-opener at Newmarket in June he has shown improvement the last twice winning over C&D, although he was pushed the last time, and was all out to win by 0.1 l; raised 3lbs, he has nevertheless carried 9-12 to victory on his penultimate win.
On To Victory 6-9-11 (98) Dr 7 (4.9)
’18 record: 0/1/5
’20 record: 0/1/1 Best: 186.7 off 98 carrying 9-7 (Cl 2 12f gd)
21/08/20 Cl 2 Hcap (187/95.7) 12f gd York 9-7 18/1 3/9 3.9l off 98
in touch, pushed along and headway over 2f out, kept on one pace
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (14 days);
Minus: course; up 4lbs (wt);
Verdict: although he was 3rd at York lto that was his first race since falling in a novice hurdle at Kempton in March; his previous flat experience was with Eve Johnson Houghton where he won up to 14f; however, he never won a hcap off higher than 87 and I can’t see him beating some of these over 12f off 98.
Labeeb 3-8-7 (88) Dr 8 (21.9)
’20 record: 2/2/4 Best: 159.7 off 79 carrying 9-0 (Cl 4 11.5f gd/fm)
09/08/20 Cl 4 Hcap (47/80.7) 11.5 gd/fm Wind 9-0 9/4 F 1/6 3.75 l off 79
dwelt, soon recovered to lead for 2f, tracked leader who went clear 5f out, closer going well over 2f out, pushed along to lead over 1f out, soon clear, easily
Plus: distance (W); form run (lto 26 days); less 7lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); going (?); course (?); up 9lbs (OR); up 2 classes;
Verdict: very impressive when winning at Windsor, but that was only a Cl 4 and he has been raised 9lbs; according to my figures he’d need to show over a stone and a half improvement to get in the action; some 3yo do, but I have my doubts on this occasion.
On To Victory will likely need another run to gain racing fitness, while the bottom weight Labeeb is being asked to do a lot rising in class and I’m a bit dubious that he can achieve it. I’m inclined to forgive Laafy last run at Goodwood and feel he has the best chance and will likely beat Look Closely with the Labeeb taking 3rd.
Ascot 16.50 Cl 2 Handicap 156 (96.9) 8f gd/sf – 9 Run (8 at best)
3yo = 5lbs wfa allowance
Last year – 186 (98.4) gd/fm – 7 ran
Bless Him 4/1 5-9-6 (97) Dr 5 by 0.5l from Lord North 9/4 F (98) Dr 6
Tempus 4-9-1 (93) Dr 8 (2.3)
’19 record: 2/0/3
’20 record: 1//0/1 Best: 187.6 off 91 carrying 9-1 (Cl 2 8f gd/sf)
15/08/20 Cl 2 Hcap (97/96.6) 8f gd/sf Newb 9-1 4/1 1/8 0.05l off 91
steadied start, raced keenly and soon tracking leaders, ridden inside final 2f, running on in close 2nd when hampered inside final furlong, rallied, just failed, finished 2nd, awarded race
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (20 days);
Minus: course (?); up 2lbs (OR);
Verdict: showed promise last year and carried on the improvement at Newbury on his return with Afaak (+12) some way behind; meets him on only 3lbs worse terms a nd should prevail.
Afaak 6-9-10 (102) Dr 4 (2.2)
’19 record: 1/0/4 Best: 205.8 off 105 carrying 9-3 (Cl 2 8f gd Ascot)
’20 record: 0/1/4 Best: 196.7 off 103 carrying 9-4 (Cl 2 8f gd/fm Good)
15/08/20 Cl 2 Hcap (97/96.6) 8f gd/sf Newb 9-13 11/4 F 5/8 3.65l off 103
held up in touch, headway far side of group 3f out, weakened inside final 2f
31/07/20 Cl 2 Hcap (311/100.4) 8f gd/fm 9-4 25/1 3/14 2.25l off 103
mid-division on outer, headway chasing leaders 3f out, edging right from over 2f out, every chance over 1f out, ridden and went 2nd inside final furlong, no extra in 3rd towards finish
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (W); recent run (20 days); last form run (35 days); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: up 6lbs (wt);
Verdict: won Hunt Cup on 2019 return, but only finished 7th this year; returned to form in Golden Mile at Goodwood in first-time blinkers, but didn’t work a second time at Newbury and dispensed with today; is only 3lbs better off with Tempus for a 3.65l beating and does not seem enough.
Orbaan 5-9-11 (103) Dr 5 (8.4)
’20 record: 1/1/5 Best: 191.2 off 100 carrying 9-7 (Cl 2 8f gd/sf)
20/08/20 Cl 2 Hcap (457/98.7) 8f gd York 9-4 28/1 7/17 3.75l off 104
held up towards rear, headway and switched left to far rail over 1f out, soon ridden and stayed on, never going pace to get involved
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (15 days); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: course (?); up 7lbs (wt);
Verdict: import from Farbre stable and quickly made his mark when winning his second start over 8f at York; had a couple of mediocre runs but a first-time hood helped him to 7th place in the Clipper Logistics at York lto, just 0.25l ahead of Walahaan (-12); they meet on the same terms today; interestingly, Spencer has ridden 3 of the 5 winners of this race, and he’s aboard Orbaan today.
Gin Palace 4-8-12 (90) Dr 2 (6.1)
’19 record: 3/0/8 Best: 159.7 off 79 carrying 9-3 (Cl 4 8f gs)
’20 record: 2/1/4 Best: 180.8 off 87 carrying 8-8 (Cl 2 8f gf)
22/08/20 Cl 3 Hcap (93/84.4) 8f gd/sf Sand 9-7 8/1 2/15 0.25l off 90
raced wide chasing leaders, ridden to lead inside final furlong, headed final strides
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (13 days); down 9lbs (wt);
Minus: course; up class;
Verdict: won a pair of Cl 2 hcaps at Newmarket on his return and then was down the field in a valuable 7f hcap at Ascot; returned to form last time at Sandown, but only in Cl 3 and was nailed late on, looks as if he may be outclassed here.
Plenty of bridesmaids here but only one bride as far as I can see, and I expect Tempus to win without the help from the stewards. What follows him home is a bit tricky and I've sort of got a sneaky feeling that Orbaan is too long a price and where he runs so should Walhaan. So it’s Tempus from Orbaan and Walhaan for me.
Ascot 15.40 Cl 2 Handicap 162 (93.6) 12f gd/sf – 9 Run
3yo = 8lbs wfa allowance
Laafy 4-10-0 (101) Dr 9 (0.3)
‘19 record: 2/2/7 Best: 174.1 off 85 carrying 8-10 (Cl 3 14f hv)
’20 record: 1/1/3 Best: 194.3 off 98 carrying 9-3 (Cl 2 12f sf)
01/08/20 Cl 2 Hcap (311/95.2) 14f gd/fm Good 9-7 9/4F 6/9 5.25l off 101
chased leaders, beaten and hanging right 2f out, well held final furlong
05/07/20 Cl 2 Hcap (374/98.8) 12f sf Hayd 9-3 7/2 F 2/16 1.25l off 98
close up, ridden to lead briefly over 1f out, chased winner, edged left inside final furlong, stayed on
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); recent run (34 days); latest form run (61 days); down in trip (2f);
Minus: course; up 7lbs (wt);
Verdict: won Cl 2 over 12f at Newbury on return and then turned in a career best in the Old Newton Cup at Haydock off 98; made favourite for a 14f hcap at Goodwood, but never looked to be going well, possibly course or going; failed on previous trip to Ascot but that was over 16f, and he didn’t stay; definite chance today despite carrying top weight.
Look Closely 4-9-12 (99) Dr 5 (1.4)
’19 record: 1/2/4
’20 record: 2/0/3 Best: 191.2 off 96 carrying 9-3 (Cl 2 12f gd/fm)
09/08/20 Cl 2 Hcap (125/95.2) 12f gd/fm Ascot 9-3 7/2 F 1/12 0.1l off 96
soon tracking leader from wide draw, challenged 2f out, ridden to lead over 1f out, all out
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (27 days);
Minus: going; up 9lbs (wt); up 3lbs (OR);
Verdict: failure on gd/sf was on his debut, so not definitive; after a pipe-opener at Newmarket in June he has shown improvement the last twice winning over C&D, although he was pushed the last time, and was all out to win by 0.1 l; raised 3lbs, he has nevertheless carried 9-12 to victory on his penultimate win.
On To Victory 6-9-11 (98) Dr 7 (4.9)
’18 record: 0/1/5
’20 record: 0/1/1 Best: 186.7 off 98 carrying 9-7 (Cl 2 12f gd)
21/08/20 Cl 2 Hcap (187/95.7) 12f gd York 9-7 18/1 3/9 3.9l off 98
in touch, pushed along and headway over 2f out, kept on one pace
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (14 days);
Minus: course; up 4lbs (wt);
Verdict: although he was 3rd at York lto that was his first race since falling in a novice hurdle at Kempton in March; his previous flat experience was with Eve Johnson Houghton where he won up to 14f; however, he never won a hcap off higher than 87 and I can’t see him beating some of these over 12f off 98.
Labeeb 3-8-7 (88) Dr 8 (21.9)
’20 record: 2/2/4 Best: 159.7 off 79 carrying 9-0 (Cl 4 11.5f gd/fm)
09/08/20 Cl 4 Hcap (47/80.7) 11.5 gd/fm Wind 9-0 9/4 F 1/6 3.75 l off 79
dwelt, soon recovered to lead for 2f, tracked leader who went clear 5f out, closer going well over 2f out, pushed along to lead over 1f out, soon clear, easily
Plus: distance (W); form run (lto 26 days); less 7lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); going (?); course (?); up 9lbs (OR); up 2 classes;
Verdict: very impressive when winning at Windsor, but that was only a Cl 4 and he has been raised 9lbs; according to my figures he’d need to show over a stone and a half improvement to get in the action; some 3yo do, but I have my doubts on this occasion.
On To Victory will likely need another run to gain racing fitness, while the bottom weight Labeeb is being asked to do a lot rising in class and I’m a bit dubious that he can achieve it. I’m inclined to forgive Laafy last run at Goodwood and feel he has the best chance and will likely beat Look Closely with the Labeeb taking 3rd.
Ascot 16.50 Cl 2 Handicap 156 (96.9) 8f gd/sf – 9 Run (8 at best)
3yo = 5lbs wfa allowance
Last year – 186 (98.4) gd/fm – 7 ran
Bless Him 4/1 5-9-6 (97) Dr 5 by 0.5l from Lord North 9/4 F (98) Dr 6
Tempus 4-9-1 (93) Dr 8 (2.3)
’19 record: 2/0/3
’20 record: 1//0/1 Best: 187.6 off 91 carrying 9-1 (Cl 2 8f gd/sf)
15/08/20 Cl 2 Hcap (97/96.6) 8f gd/sf Newb 9-1 4/1 1/8 0.05l off 91
steadied start, raced keenly and soon tracking leaders, ridden inside final 2f, running on in close 2nd when hampered inside final furlong, rallied, just failed, finished 2nd, awarded race
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (20 days);
Minus: course (?); up 2lbs (OR);
Verdict: showed promise last year and carried on the improvement at Newbury on his return with Afaak (+12) some way behind; meets him on only 3lbs worse terms a nd should prevail.
Afaak 6-9-10 (102) Dr 4 (2.2)
’19 record: 1/0/4 Best: 205.8 off 105 carrying 9-3 (Cl 2 8f gd Ascot)
’20 record: 0/1/4 Best: 196.7 off 103 carrying 9-4 (Cl 2 8f gd/fm Good)
15/08/20 Cl 2 Hcap (97/96.6) 8f gd/sf Newb 9-13 11/4 F 5/8 3.65l off 103
held up in touch, headway far side of group 3f out, weakened inside final 2f
31/07/20 Cl 2 Hcap (311/100.4) 8f gd/fm 9-4 25/1 3/14 2.25l off 103
mid-division on outer, headway chasing leaders 3f out, edging right from over 2f out, every chance over 1f out, ridden and went 2nd inside final furlong, no extra in 3rd towards finish
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (W); recent run (20 days); last form run (35 days); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: up 6lbs (wt);
Verdict: won Hunt Cup on 2019 return, but only finished 7th this year; returned to form in Golden Mile at Goodwood in first-time blinkers, but didn’t work a second time at Newbury and dispensed with today; is only 3lbs better off with Tempus for a 3.65l beating and does not seem enough.
Orbaan 5-9-11 (103) Dr 5 (8.4)
’20 record: 1/1/5 Best: 191.2 off 100 carrying 9-7 (Cl 2 8f gd/sf)
20/08/20 Cl 2 Hcap (457/98.7) 8f gd York 9-4 28/1 7/17 3.75l off 104
held up towards rear, headway and switched left to far rail over 1f out, soon ridden and stayed on, never going pace to get involved
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (15 days); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: course (?); up 7lbs (wt);
Verdict: import from Farbre stable and quickly made his mark when winning his second start over 8f at York; had a couple of mediocre runs but a first-time hood helped him to 7th place in the Clipper Logistics at York lto, just 0.25l ahead of Walahaan (-12); they meet on the same terms today; interestingly, Spencer has ridden 3 of the 5 winners of this race, and he’s aboard Orbaan today.
Gin Palace 4-8-12 (90) Dr 2 (6.1)
’19 record: 3/0/8 Best: 159.7 off 79 carrying 9-3 (Cl 4 8f gs)
’20 record: 2/1/4 Best: 180.8 off 87 carrying 8-8 (Cl 2 8f gf)
22/08/20 Cl 3 Hcap (93/84.4) 8f gd/sf Sand 9-7 8/1 2/15 0.25l off 90
raced wide chasing leaders, ridden to lead inside final furlong, headed final strides
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (13 days); down 9lbs (wt);
Minus: course; up class;
Verdict: won a pair of Cl 2 hcaps at Newmarket on his return and then was down the field in a valuable 7f hcap at Ascot; returned to form last time at Sandown, but only in Cl 3 and was nailed late on, looks as if he may be outclassed here.
Plenty of bridesmaids here but only one bride as far as I can see, and I expect Tempus to win without the help from the stewards. What follows him home is a bit tricky and I've sort of got a sneaky feeling that Orbaan is too long a price and where he runs so should Walhaan. So it’s Tempus from Orbaan and Walhaan for me.