Post by Old Timer on Aug 31, 2020 11:28:12 GMT
Promise all these of present vintage!
Ripon 13.20 Cl 2 Handicap 109 (88.8) 8f sf – 10 Run
3yos = 6lbs wfa allowance
Last year: 156 (90.2) gd – 8 ran
Ibraz 9/5 F 4-9-5 (93) Dr 6 by 0.5l from Alfred Richardson 5/1 5-9-1 (89) Dr 5
Rousayan 20/1 8-8-12 (91) Dr 9 was 9.6 l 8th and last
Hesselwood 4-9-1 (85) Dr 7 (5.3)
’19 record: 1/2/6 Best: 164.0 off 82 carrying 8-3 (Cl 3 8f AW)
’20 record: 0/2/4 Best: 168.5 off 84 carrying 9-9 (Cl 3 8f gd/sf Rip)
16/08/20 Cl 3 (95/85.0) 8f gd/sf Rip 9-9 9/2 2/11 0.25l off 84
reluctant to load, mid-division, pushed along 2f out, led entering final furlong, just denied final 50 yards
Plus: distance (W); course (F); form run lto (15 days); down 8lbs (wt);
Minus: class; going; up 1lb (OR); up in class;
Verdict: couldn’t quite hold on from Just Hiss over C&D 15 days ago, but he’s 2lbs better off today and tried in first-time cheekpieces; has form on gd/sf though not on sf.
Just Hiss 7-9-1 (85) Dr 10 (6.8)
’19 record: 0/3/5 Best: 178.2 off 90 carrying 8-7 (Cl 2 8f sf Hayd)
’20 record: 1/0/4 Best: 167.0 off 82 carrying 9-7 (Cl 3 8f gd/sf Rip)
16/08/20 Cl 3 (95/85.0) 8f gd/sf Rip 9-7 13/2 1/11 0.25l off 82
slowly away, ridden and outpaced 3f out, headway when pushed along 2f out, kept on well to lead final 100 yards, gamely
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (15 days); down 6lbs (wt);
Minus: up 3lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: getting up there in years as a 7yo and has never won off more than 86, so 85 may be pushing it at his age, plus he has the outside draw, which is not favoured.
Hortzader 5-9-7 (91) Dr 3 (7.0)
’19 record: 3/1/11 Best: 175.0 off 91 carrying 10-0 (Cl 3 8f sf Rip)
’20 record: 0/2/5 Best: 172.7 off 91 carrying 9-9 (Cl 3 8f gd/sf Rip)
16/08/20 Cl 3 (95/85.0) 8f gd/sf Rip 9-11 3/1F 3/11 1.75l off 91
just worse than mid-division, smooth headway 3f out, briefly led just over 1f out, outpaced final 150 yards
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (15 days); down 14lbs (wt);
Minus: class; up in class;
Verdict: with rider again claiming 5lbs, he’s 3lbs better off with Just Hiss for 1.75l, purportedly not enough to reverse the running; however, has improved last two runs and won over C&D on sf last year about this time of years varying 10-0 off 91;
Crownthorpe 5-9-11 (95) Dr 5 (2.7)
’19 record: 3/0/10 Best: 182.1 off 91 carrying 8-12 (Cl 2 8f sf)
[20 record: 0/0/1
15/18/20 Cl 2 Hcap (97/92.4) 7f gd/fm Donc 9-3 50/1 10/11 11.37l off 96
always in rear
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); recent run (16 days); up 1f; down 1lb (OR);
Minus: up 8lbs (wt);
Verdict: present form but must run better than return over 7f at Doncaster on sf; whether he’ll be up to his final run in 2019 when a clear winner over 8f on sf at York, is a question and he is 5lbs above that mark; Hortzadar (+6) was over 5l back, but meets him on 10lbs better terms today.
Danyah 3-9-3 (93) Dr 9 (20.9)
’19 record: 1/1/3
‘20 record: 1/0/2 Best: 166.9 off 93 carrying 9-5 (Cl 3 7f sf )
16/ 08/20 Cl 3 Hcap (97/89.4) 7f sf Newb 9-5 11/4F 3/14 7.25 off 93
held up towards rear, headway over 3f out, ridden over 2f out, went 3rd over 1f out but well adrift, kept on
Plus: going (W); recent outing (15 days); down 2lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); distance (?); course (?); up in class (?); up in distance (?);
Verdict: lots of question marks for a horse that’s only won in Cl4, and while the step up trip may help he’s up in class as well and should have been closer last time, plus he’s not drawn that well in stall 8.
The 3yo Danyah is the forecast favourite and for the life of me I can’t see why, It won a Cl 4 and then, after a long break admittedly, it finished a well-beaten 3rd in a Cl 3. On my figures it would need to improve a stone and a half to have a chance here. Not for me.
The real danger, if he’s anywhere near fit, is Crownthorpe who closed out last season by winning a Cl 2 on sf at York. However, he showed nothing at Doncaster on his return and I’ll wait to see how he runs today.
That leaves the three who occupied the first three places in a Cl 3 hcap here 15 days ago. Just Hiss, the winner that day, is a 7yo and not likely to double off a near career high mark. That leaves the other two, the 4yo Hesselwood wearing first-time cheekpieces and 5yo Hortzader. Not much between them, but I’ll take the cheekpieces to eke out the necessary and go for Hesselwood from Hortzader and perhaps Crownthorpe to run into third.
Ripon 13.20 Cl 2 Handicap 109 (88.8) 8f sf – 10 Run
3yos = 6lbs wfa allowance
Last year: 156 (90.2) gd – 8 ran
Ibraz 9/5 F 4-9-5 (93) Dr 6 by 0.5l from Alfred Richardson 5/1 5-9-1 (89) Dr 5
Rousayan 20/1 8-8-12 (91) Dr 9 was 9.6 l 8th and last
Hesselwood 4-9-1 (85) Dr 7 (5.3)
’19 record: 1/2/6 Best: 164.0 off 82 carrying 8-3 (Cl 3 8f AW)
’20 record: 0/2/4 Best: 168.5 off 84 carrying 9-9 (Cl 3 8f gd/sf Rip)
16/08/20 Cl 3 (95/85.0) 8f gd/sf Rip 9-9 9/2 2/11 0.25l off 84
reluctant to load, mid-division, pushed along 2f out, led entering final furlong, just denied final 50 yards
Plus: distance (W); course (F); form run lto (15 days); down 8lbs (wt);
Minus: class; going; up 1lb (OR); up in class;
Verdict: couldn’t quite hold on from Just Hiss over C&D 15 days ago, but he’s 2lbs better off today and tried in first-time cheekpieces; has form on gd/sf though not on sf.
Just Hiss 7-9-1 (85) Dr 10 (6.8)
’19 record: 0/3/5 Best: 178.2 off 90 carrying 8-7 (Cl 2 8f sf Hayd)
’20 record: 1/0/4 Best: 167.0 off 82 carrying 9-7 (Cl 3 8f gd/sf Rip)
16/08/20 Cl 3 (95/85.0) 8f gd/sf Rip 9-7 13/2 1/11 0.25l off 82
slowly away, ridden and outpaced 3f out, headway when pushed along 2f out, kept on well to lead final 100 yards, gamely
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (15 days); down 6lbs (wt);
Minus: up 3lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: getting up there in years as a 7yo and has never won off more than 86, so 85 may be pushing it at his age, plus he has the outside draw, which is not favoured.
Hortzader 5-9-7 (91) Dr 3 (7.0)
’19 record: 3/1/11 Best: 175.0 off 91 carrying 10-0 (Cl 3 8f sf Rip)
’20 record: 0/2/5 Best: 172.7 off 91 carrying 9-9 (Cl 3 8f gd/sf Rip)
16/08/20 Cl 3 (95/85.0) 8f gd/sf Rip 9-11 3/1F 3/11 1.75l off 91
just worse than mid-division, smooth headway 3f out, briefly led just over 1f out, outpaced final 150 yards
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (15 days); down 14lbs (wt);
Minus: class; up in class;
Verdict: with rider again claiming 5lbs, he’s 3lbs better off with Just Hiss for 1.75l, purportedly not enough to reverse the running; however, has improved last two runs and won over C&D on sf last year about this time of years varying 10-0 off 91;
Crownthorpe 5-9-11 (95) Dr 5 (2.7)
’19 record: 3/0/10 Best: 182.1 off 91 carrying 8-12 (Cl 2 8f sf)
[20 record: 0/0/1
15/18/20 Cl 2 Hcap (97/92.4) 7f gd/fm Donc 9-3 50/1 10/11 11.37l off 96
always in rear
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); recent run (16 days); up 1f; down 1lb (OR);
Minus: up 8lbs (wt);
Verdict: present form but must run better than return over 7f at Doncaster on sf; whether he’ll be up to his final run in 2019 when a clear winner over 8f on sf at York, is a question and he is 5lbs above that mark; Hortzadar (+6) was over 5l back, but meets him on 10lbs better terms today.
Danyah 3-9-3 (93) Dr 9 (20.9)
’19 record: 1/1/3
‘20 record: 1/0/2 Best: 166.9 off 93 carrying 9-5 (Cl 3 7f sf )
16/ 08/20 Cl 3 Hcap (97/89.4) 7f sf Newb 9-5 11/4F 3/14 7.25 off 93
held up towards rear, headway over 3f out, ridden over 2f out, went 3rd over 1f out but well adrift, kept on
Plus: going (W); recent outing (15 days); down 2lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); distance (?); course (?); up in class (?); up in distance (?);
Verdict: lots of question marks for a horse that’s only won in Cl4, and while the step up trip may help he’s up in class as well and should have been closer last time, plus he’s not drawn that well in stall 8.
The 3yo Danyah is the forecast favourite and for the life of me I can’t see why, It won a Cl 4 and then, after a long break admittedly, it finished a well-beaten 3rd in a Cl 3. On my figures it would need to improve a stone and a half to have a chance here. Not for me.
The real danger, if he’s anywhere near fit, is Crownthorpe who closed out last season by winning a Cl 2 on sf at York. However, he showed nothing at Doncaster on his return and I’ll wait to see how he runs today.
That leaves the three who occupied the first three places in a Cl 3 hcap here 15 days ago. Just Hiss, the winner that day, is a 7yo and not likely to double off a near career high mark. That leaves the other two, the 4yo Hesselwood wearing first-time cheekpieces and 5yo Hortzader. Not much between them, but I’ll take the cheekpieces to eke out the necessary and go for Hesselwood from Hortzader and perhaps Crownthorpe to run into third.