Post by Old Timer on Aug 22, 2020 11:20:22 GMT
York 15.40 Cl 2 Handicap 1400 (104.0) 14f gd – 24 Run
Last year – 6000 (109.2) gd/fm 22 ran
Mustajeer 16/1 5-9-5 (108) Dr 2 by 0.75l from Red Galileo 25/1 8-9-1 (109) Dr 12
True Self 14/1 6-9-7 (110) Dr 5 was 3l 6th
Pablo Escobar 4-9-8 (108) Dr 20
’19 record: 1/4/6
’20 record: 1/4/5 Best: 216.0 off 105 carrying 9-2 (List Hcap 12f Meydan)
31/07/20 Gr 3 Stks (284/) 12f gd/fm Good 9-1 9/2 1/6 0.75l off 108
held up towards rear, niggled along over 2f out, pushed along to lead 1f out, ran on well
Plus: class (W+); going (F); form run lto (22 days); down in class;
Minus: distance (?); course (?); up 7lbs (wt); first try at 14f;
Verdict: only one hcap. but is high in the weights, though last two winners have done so off 109 and 108
True Self 7-9-8 (108) Dr 7 (212.0)
’19 record: 1/2/4 Best: 216.0 off 110 carrying 9-7 (this race)
’20 record: 0/0/2 Best:
05/07/20 Gr 3 Stks (295/) 12f yld Cork 10-0 6/1 6/15 7.75l off 110
slowly away, raced in rear, progress under 3f out, no impression and ridden in 6th over 1f out, one paced final furlong
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (F); recent run (48 days); down 6lbs (wt); down 2lbs (OR); down in class;
Minus:
Verdict: no form this season, but last race was Munster Oaks; chance on last year’s running in race when 3l 6th off 2lbs more and this likely target; wears first time tongue-tie, but has low draw; mare has win in the past 20 years, once from 20 runners.
Glencadam Glory 6-8-13 (99) Dr 14 (203.0)
’19 record: 1/0/4
‘2 record: 0/0/4 Best: 194.7 off 99 carrying 9-11 (12f)
24/07/20 Cl 2 Hcap (97/96.8) 12f gd Rip 9-11 11/1 5/8 0.85l off 99 – 194.7
in rear, pushed along and slightly outpaced over 3f out, ridden and headway entering final furlong, ran on
Plus: class (F); going (W); form run lto (29 days); down12lbs (wt);
Minus: distance; course (?); up in trip;
Verdict: transfer from Gosden’s yard where he was thought enough of to run in Gr 3 staks at Ascot and also the Queen Alexandra Stks; didn’t shape up so transfer to the Easterby yard; hasn’t done much but better of late in the Old Newton Cup and then not beaten far over 12f at Ripon, suggesting he needed a step back up in trip; looks too long a price on that form.
Hochfield 6-8-11 (97) Dr 6 (201.0)
‘19 record: 0/0/2
’20 record: 1/0/4 Best: 187.2 off 92 carrying 8-12 (12f)
01/08/20 Cl 2 Hcap (311/95.2) 14f gd/fm Good 8-12 15/2 1/9 0.5l off 92 – 187.2
held up in mid-division, headway on outside over 2f out, led over 1f out, hard pressed, stayed on well, holding 2nd towards finish
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (21 days); down 1lb (wt);
Minus: course; up 5lbs (OR);
Verdict: returned to form at Goodwood where he beat Shailine (+8) by 0.5l and meets him on the same terms today; has form at higher OR, but stretching on recent form; however, Johnston withdrew Communique so that Hochfield could run as a reserve, notwithstanding the low draw.
Impossible race to pick a winner, as it goes up in class of horse each year, and these rarely run in hcaps. Just a note on one or two I didn’t pick, which include Ghosxxxxch whose sire Dubawi has had 8 bites at the cherry and not produced a winner yet. Certain like Trueshan and Pondus have no hcap form and thus I can’t hazard a guess as to their potential. Last year was a perfect example of where following a draw stat can get you, as the winner was the second drawn in single digits in 5 years, and the third in 20!
Well the order for my four is Paolo Escobar, True Self, Glencadam Glory and Hochfield, and if one of them makes the frame I’ll be delighted!
Last year – 6000 (109.2) gd/fm 22 ran
Mustajeer 16/1 5-9-5 (108) Dr 2 by 0.75l from Red Galileo 25/1 8-9-1 (109) Dr 12
True Self 14/1 6-9-7 (110) Dr 5 was 3l 6th
Pablo Escobar 4-9-8 (108) Dr 20
’19 record: 1/4/6
’20 record: 1/4/5 Best: 216.0 off 105 carrying 9-2 (List Hcap 12f Meydan)
31/07/20 Gr 3 Stks (284/) 12f gd/fm Good 9-1 9/2 1/6 0.75l off 108
held up towards rear, niggled along over 2f out, pushed along to lead 1f out, ran on well
Plus: class (W+); going (F); form run lto (22 days); down in class;
Minus: distance (?); course (?); up 7lbs (wt); first try at 14f;
Verdict: only one hcap. but is high in the weights, though last two winners have done so off 109 and 108
True Self 7-9-8 (108) Dr 7 (212.0)
’19 record: 1/2/4 Best: 216.0 off 110 carrying 9-7 (this race)
’20 record: 0/0/2 Best:
05/07/20 Gr 3 Stks (295/) 12f yld Cork 10-0 6/1 6/15 7.75l off 110
slowly away, raced in rear, progress under 3f out, no impression and ridden in 6th over 1f out, one paced final furlong
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (F); recent run (48 days); down 6lbs (wt); down 2lbs (OR); down in class;
Minus:
Verdict: no form this season, but last race was Munster Oaks; chance on last year’s running in race when 3l 6th off 2lbs more and this likely target; wears first time tongue-tie, but has low draw; mare has win in the past 20 years, once from 20 runners.
Glencadam Glory 6-8-13 (99) Dr 14 (203.0)
’19 record: 1/0/4
‘2 record: 0/0/4 Best: 194.7 off 99 carrying 9-11 (12f)
24/07/20 Cl 2 Hcap (97/96.8) 12f gd Rip 9-11 11/1 5/8 0.85l off 99 – 194.7
in rear, pushed along and slightly outpaced over 3f out, ridden and headway entering final furlong, ran on
Plus: class (F); going (W); form run lto (29 days); down12lbs (wt);
Minus: distance; course (?); up in trip;
Verdict: transfer from Gosden’s yard where he was thought enough of to run in Gr 3 staks at Ascot and also the Queen Alexandra Stks; didn’t shape up so transfer to the Easterby yard; hasn’t done much but better of late in the Old Newton Cup and then not beaten far over 12f at Ripon, suggesting he needed a step back up in trip; looks too long a price on that form.
Hochfield 6-8-11 (97) Dr 6 (201.0)
‘19 record: 0/0/2
’20 record: 1/0/4 Best: 187.2 off 92 carrying 8-12 (12f)
01/08/20 Cl 2 Hcap (311/95.2) 14f gd/fm Good 8-12 15/2 1/9 0.5l off 92 – 187.2
held up in mid-division, headway on outside over 2f out, led over 1f out, hard pressed, stayed on well, holding 2nd towards finish
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (21 days); down 1lb (wt);
Minus: course; up 5lbs (OR);
Verdict: returned to form at Goodwood where he beat Shailine (+8) by 0.5l and meets him on the same terms today; has form at higher OR, but stretching on recent form; however, Johnston withdrew Communique so that Hochfield could run as a reserve, notwithstanding the low draw.
Impossible race to pick a winner, as it goes up in class of horse each year, and these rarely run in hcaps. Just a note on one or two I didn’t pick, which include Ghosxxxxch whose sire Dubawi has had 8 bites at the cherry and not produced a winner yet. Certain like Trueshan and Pondus have no hcap form and thus I can’t hazard a guess as to their potential. Last year was a perfect example of where following a draw stat can get you, as the winner was the second drawn in single digits in 5 years, and the third in 20!
Well the order for my four is Paolo Escobar, True Self, Glencadam Glory and Hochfield, and if one of them makes the frame I’ll be delighted!