Post by Old Timer on Aug 16, 2020 11:25:26 GMT
Sod’s law yesterday in that my best hope was unplaced, but in the other race one of my e/w shots went and won at 18/1! Not before time as they say, and hope the streak isn’t as long this time.
Ripon 15.15 Cl 2 Handicap 249 (90.0) 6f gd – 20 Run
Last year: 467 (96) sf – 17 ran
Dakota Gold 5/1 F 5-9-7 (99) Dr 15 by 2.25l from Summerghand 15/2 5-9-8 (100) Dr 5
Citron Major 18/1 4-8-9 (80) Dr 1 was 4 l 3rd
Staxton 18/1 4-9-7 (99) Dr 20 was 6l 5th
George Bowen 28/1 7-9-7 (99) Dr 4 was 12.85l 11th
Brian The Snail 5-8-8 (91) Dr 19 (181.0)
’19 record: 1/2/13 Best 166.4 off 86 carrying 9-9
’20 record: 1/2/3 Best 183.4 off 90 carrying 8-3
01/08/20 Cl 2 Hcap (467/96.2) 6f gd/fm Good 8-3 66/1 3/27 1.1 l off 90 – 183.1
raced stands side, chased leaders, driven over 1f out, ran on well inside final 100 yards, went 3rd close home
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (15 days);
Minus: up 5lbs (wt); up 1lb (OR);
Verdict: career best when 3rd in Steward’s Cup lto 1l back of Kimifive (+2); meets K on 5lbs better terms, but had the better of the draw that day and may not overturn the running.
Kimifive 5-8-13 (96) Dr 13 (186.0)
’19 record: 1/2/11 Best 185.8 off 93 carrying 9-6 (over 7f)
‘20 record: 0/2/5 Best 187.9 off 92 carrying 8-5
01/08/20 Cl 2 Hcap (467/96.2) 6f gd/fm Good 8-5 11/1 2/27 0.1 l off 92 – 187.9
slowly into stride, raced far side, in rear, headway 2f out, led inside final furlong, ran on, headed close home
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: not quite got the speed for the top sprints, and might be better at 7f ; nevertheless, looks to hold the upper hand over Brian The Snail based on Steward’s Cup running.
Golden Apollo 6-8-10 (93) Dr 18 (183.0)
’18 record 1/3/12 Best 178.7 off 88 carrying 9-4
’20 record 0/1/3 Best 180.3 off 91 carrying 9-4
26/07/20 Cl 2 Hcap (107/91.2) 6f gd/fm York 9-4 9/1 2/12 0.75 l off 91 – 180.3
towards rear when groups merged over 2f out, pushed along and headway approaching final furlong, stayed on towards finish
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (21 days); down 8lbs (wt);
Minus: up 2lbs (OR);
Verdict: won the Silver Cup off 88 at Ayr last September, his first win since winning at Ascot in August 2017 off 95; seems to be running into form again at York last month and is within a reachable mark; no surprise were he to run well.
Motagally 4-9-0 (97) Dr 20 (187.0)
’19 record: 2/0/8 Best 173.0 off 82 carrying 8-8 (Cl 3)
’20 record: 1/1/3 Best 175.0 0ff 89 carrying 9-11 (5.5f Cl 3)
22/07/20 Cl 3 Hcap (67/86.0) 5.5f fm Bath 9-11 9/4 F 1/8 2.25 l off 89 – 175.0
tracked leaders going well, smooth headway on outside 2f out, quickened to lead entering final furlong, soon clear
Plus: going (F); distance (W); form run lto (25 days); down 11lbs (wt);
Minus: class; course (?); up 8lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: runner-up has since won a Cl 2, but was off the same mark; Motagally is off 8lbs higher to try and gain his first Cl 2 win; has not shown enough improvement to guarantee it, and I’ll pass.
Staxton 5-8-5 (88) Dr 17 (178.0)
’19 record 1/2/11 Best 185.4 off 95 carrying 9-12
’20 record 1/0/4 Best 169.9 off 84 carrying 9-1 (Cl 3)
06/08/20 Cl 3 Hcap (67/85.9) 6f gd Ripon 9-1 5/1 1/11 0.02 l off 84 – 169.9
chased leaders on near side rail, switched right inside final 2f, ridden to lead main group and clear in group inside final furlong, just won in head bob
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (10 days); down 10lbs (wt);
Minus: up 4lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: carrying 11lbs less than last year and ran a good trial here lto just beating Watchable (+8) – a winner since – on the nod with Gunmetal (+5) 2.5l back in 3rd and Citron Major (+4) and Royal Residence (+3) further back; not discounted.
Another of those monster sprints, and I believe that last year’s winner Dakota Gold has too much weight, as in the past 20 years only Smokin Beau has carried 9-10 to victory and he had a mark of 98 not 107, in fact no horse has won off a mark of over 100. Another that I find a little high in the betting is Motagally. True, he won well lto, but now has to try and emulate the feat in one class higher and off an 8lbs higher mark. Not for me. So that leaves me with four out of which I’m going for Kimifive from Brian The Snail and Golden Apollo with Staxton in fourth.
Ripon 15.15 Cl 2 Handicap 249 (90.0) 6f gd – 20 Run
Last year: 467 (96) sf – 17 ran
Dakota Gold 5/1 F 5-9-7 (99) Dr 15 by 2.25l from Summerghand 15/2 5-9-8 (100) Dr 5
Citron Major 18/1 4-8-9 (80) Dr 1 was 4 l 3rd
Staxton 18/1 4-9-7 (99) Dr 20 was 6l 5th
George Bowen 28/1 7-9-7 (99) Dr 4 was 12.85l 11th
Brian The Snail 5-8-8 (91) Dr 19 (181.0)
’19 record: 1/2/13 Best 166.4 off 86 carrying 9-9
’20 record: 1/2/3 Best 183.4 off 90 carrying 8-3
01/08/20 Cl 2 Hcap (467/96.2) 6f gd/fm Good 8-3 66/1 3/27 1.1 l off 90 – 183.1
raced stands side, chased leaders, driven over 1f out, ran on well inside final 100 yards, went 3rd close home
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (15 days);
Minus: up 5lbs (wt); up 1lb (OR);
Verdict: career best when 3rd in Steward’s Cup lto 1l back of Kimifive (+2); meets K on 5lbs better terms, but had the better of the draw that day and may not overturn the running.
Kimifive 5-8-13 (96) Dr 13 (186.0)
’19 record: 1/2/11 Best 185.8 off 93 carrying 9-6 (over 7f)
‘20 record: 0/2/5 Best 187.9 off 92 carrying 8-5
01/08/20 Cl 2 Hcap (467/96.2) 6f gd/fm Good 8-5 11/1 2/27 0.1 l off 92 – 187.9
slowly into stride, raced far side, in rear, headway 2f out, led inside final furlong, ran on, headed close home
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: not quite got the speed for the top sprints, and might be better at 7f ; nevertheless, looks to hold the upper hand over Brian The Snail based on Steward’s Cup running.
Golden Apollo 6-8-10 (93) Dr 18 (183.0)
’18 record 1/3/12 Best 178.7 off 88 carrying 9-4
’20 record 0/1/3 Best 180.3 off 91 carrying 9-4
26/07/20 Cl 2 Hcap (107/91.2) 6f gd/fm York 9-4 9/1 2/12 0.75 l off 91 – 180.3
towards rear when groups merged over 2f out, pushed along and headway approaching final furlong, stayed on towards finish
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (21 days); down 8lbs (wt);
Minus: up 2lbs (OR);
Verdict: won the Silver Cup off 88 at Ayr last September, his first win since winning at Ascot in August 2017 off 95; seems to be running into form again at York last month and is within a reachable mark; no surprise were he to run well.
Motagally 4-9-0 (97) Dr 20 (187.0)
’19 record: 2/0/8 Best 173.0 off 82 carrying 8-8 (Cl 3)
’20 record: 1/1/3 Best 175.0 0ff 89 carrying 9-11 (5.5f Cl 3)
22/07/20 Cl 3 Hcap (67/86.0) 5.5f fm Bath 9-11 9/4 F 1/8 2.25 l off 89 – 175.0
tracked leaders going well, smooth headway on outside 2f out, quickened to lead entering final furlong, soon clear
Plus: going (F); distance (W); form run lto (25 days); down 11lbs (wt);
Minus: class; course (?); up 8lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: runner-up has since won a Cl 2, but was off the same mark; Motagally is off 8lbs higher to try and gain his first Cl 2 win; has not shown enough improvement to guarantee it, and I’ll pass.
Staxton 5-8-5 (88) Dr 17 (178.0)
’19 record 1/2/11 Best 185.4 off 95 carrying 9-12
’20 record 1/0/4 Best 169.9 off 84 carrying 9-1 (Cl 3)
06/08/20 Cl 3 Hcap (67/85.9) 6f gd Ripon 9-1 5/1 1/11 0.02 l off 84 – 169.9
chased leaders on near side rail, switched right inside final 2f, ridden to lead main group and clear in group inside final furlong, just won in head bob
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (10 days); down 10lbs (wt);
Minus: up 4lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: carrying 11lbs less than last year and ran a good trial here lto just beating Watchable (+8) – a winner since – on the nod with Gunmetal (+5) 2.5l back in 3rd and Citron Major (+4) and Royal Residence (+3) further back; not discounted.
Another of those monster sprints, and I believe that last year’s winner Dakota Gold has too much weight, as in the past 20 years only Smokin Beau has carried 9-10 to victory and he had a mark of 98 not 107, in fact no horse has won off a mark of over 100. Another that I find a little high in the betting is Motagally. True, he won well lto, but now has to try and emulate the feat in one class higher and off an 8lbs higher mark. Not for me. So that leaves me with four out of which I’m going for Kimifive from Brian The Snail and Golden Apollo with Staxton in fourth.