Post by Old Timer on Jul 31, 2020 10:25:08 GMT
Beaten a nk after 20.5f says a lot about my luck at present. Let’s hope it changes starting today.
Goodwood 14.45 Cl 2 Handicap 311 (100.6) 8f gd – 15 Run
Last year: 934 (100.6) gd/fm
Beat Le Bon 17/2 3-8-13 (104) Dr 3 by Vale Of Kent 25/1 4-9-3 (101) Dr 17
Baltic Baron 16/1 4-8-13 (97) Dr 6 was 3.25 l 5th
Afaak 16/1 16/1 5-9-10 (108) Dr 14 was 9.65 l 11th
Vale Of Kent 5-9-9 (108) Dr 3 (110.2)
’19 record: 1/3/7 ’20 record: 0/3/6
17/06/20 Cl 2 Hcap (485/103.4) 8f gd Ascot 9-9 22/1 4/33 3.0 l off 108 – 105.2
led main group centre to near side and overall, headed inside final furlong, weakened and lost 2 places towards finish
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); recent outing (6 days);
Minus:
Verdict: has been kept on the go since finishing 4th in the Hunt Cup, though all over 7f and although he finished 3rd in the Bunbury, 8f may suit better nowadays; has a bunch of weight to carry, but he’s used to that.
Montatham 4-9-5 (104) Dr 15 (106.5)
’19 record: 2/2/5 ‘20 record: 2/1/2
05/07/20 Cl 2 Hcap (187/86.4) 8f gd/fm Sand 9-3 6/5 F 1/9 0.05 l off 100 – 95.8
tracked leaders, ridden to lead final 150 yards, just held on, all out
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); form run lto (26 days);
Minus: course (?); up 2lbs (wt); up 4lbs (OR);
Verdict: genuine 8f performer and reversed his narrow Hunt Cup decision with Dark Vision at Sandown lto; raised a further 4bs for that and has the un-favoured outside draw.
Cliffs Of Capri 6-8-12 (97) Dr 4 (105.8)
’19 record: 0/4/19 ’20 record: 1/4/6
25/07/20 Cl 2 Hcap (280/96.1) 7f gd/fm Ascot 8-13 12/1 2/19 1.25 l off 97 – 89.8
held up in rear, headway over 1f out, went 2nd well inside final, ran on, no impression on winner
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (6 days); 1lb less (wt);
Minus: up in distance;
Verdict: won over 8f at Meydan in February and has maintained his form since the restart, though over 7f; worth a try over 8f.
Sir Busker 4-9-8 (107) Dr 7 (105.0)
’19 record: 2/2/9 ‘20 record: 2/1/3
11/07/20 Cl 2 Hcap (374.97/7) 7f gd Nwmkt 9-4 9/1 2/17 0.75l off 102 – 99.0
in rear, headway on outside from over 1f out, ridden and hung right inside final furlong, ran on, not reach winner
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (20 days); up to 8f;
Minus: up 4lbs (wt); up 5lbs (OR);
Verdict: won the Silver Hunt Cup under a big weight and then just failed to get to the winner in the Bunbury; however, although the return to 8f will suit he is up another 5lbs, which is 15lbs since the restart; testing.
Cardsharp 5-9-2 (101) Dr 5 (103.1)
‘19 record: 2/1/9 ’20 record: 0/1/6
25/07/20 Cl 2 Hcap (280/96.1) 7f gd/fm Ascot 9-3 28/1 3/19 2.5 0 off 101 – 91.1
led early, chased leaders, ridden 3f out, led and edged left over 1f out, soon headed, lost 2nd well inside final furlong, kept on
Plus: class (W); course (F); form run lto (6 days); down 1lb (wt);
Minus: going; distance; up in distance;
Verdict: promising at Ascot last weekend, but that was 7f and has no form at 8f; thus not a player for me
Prompting 4-8-4 (89) Dr 2 (86.9+)
’19 record: 0/1/2 ’20 record: 3/1/5
25/07/20 Cl 4 Hcap (50/77.5) 7f gd York 9-13 7/4 F 1/17 2.25 l off 86 – 62.9
restrained in midfield, smooth headway over 3f out, ridden to lead 2f out, kept on strongly
Plus: going (W); distance (F); form run lto (6); down 23 lbs (wt);
Minus: class; course (?); 3lbs penalty; up 2 classes;
Verdict: massive improver, but has never run in higher than Cl4 and only runs over 8f were in Cl 5; needs to improve around 20lbs on what he’s shown so far, which he may do, but not for me.
Prompting may be favourite, but he’s rising two classes and the potential that he may have will be sorely tried. I don’t see him as a worthy favourite, especially as he’s yet to win over 8f. Another that’s yet to win over 8f is Cardsharp and although he showed form last week over 7f, unlike his stable mate Vale Of Kent, I can’t see him winning today over 8f. Moreover, he’s taken a walk in the market. I can’t count out Montatham on account of the draw. Care is to be taken on the OR though, as no horse has won off a mark higher than 105 and only 4 aged 4yo or more have won. That suggests both Sir Busker and Vale Of Kent are bucking the odds. All in all I’m inclined to go for Montatham from Cliffs Of Capri and Vale Of Kent to run into the frame.
Goodwood 14.45 Cl 2 Handicap 311 (100.6) 8f gd – 15 Run
Last year: 934 (100.6) gd/fm
Beat Le Bon 17/2 3-8-13 (104) Dr 3 by Vale Of Kent 25/1 4-9-3 (101) Dr 17
Baltic Baron 16/1 4-8-13 (97) Dr 6 was 3.25 l 5th
Afaak 16/1 16/1 5-9-10 (108) Dr 14 was 9.65 l 11th
Vale Of Kent 5-9-9 (108) Dr 3 (110.2)
’19 record: 1/3/7 ’20 record: 0/3/6
17/06/20 Cl 2 Hcap (485/103.4) 8f gd Ascot 9-9 22/1 4/33 3.0 l off 108 – 105.2
led main group centre to near side and overall, headed inside final furlong, weakened and lost 2 places towards finish
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); recent outing (6 days);
Minus:
Verdict: has been kept on the go since finishing 4th in the Hunt Cup, though all over 7f and although he finished 3rd in the Bunbury, 8f may suit better nowadays; has a bunch of weight to carry, but he’s used to that.
Montatham 4-9-5 (104) Dr 15 (106.5)
’19 record: 2/2/5 ‘20 record: 2/1/2
05/07/20 Cl 2 Hcap (187/86.4) 8f gd/fm Sand 9-3 6/5 F 1/9 0.05 l off 100 – 95.8
tracked leaders, ridden to lead final 150 yards, just held on, all out
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); form run lto (26 days);
Minus: course (?); up 2lbs (wt); up 4lbs (OR);
Verdict: genuine 8f performer and reversed his narrow Hunt Cup decision with Dark Vision at Sandown lto; raised a further 4bs for that and has the un-favoured outside draw.
Cliffs Of Capri 6-8-12 (97) Dr 4 (105.8)
’19 record: 0/4/19 ’20 record: 1/4/6
25/07/20 Cl 2 Hcap (280/96.1) 7f gd/fm Ascot 8-13 12/1 2/19 1.25 l off 97 – 89.8
held up in rear, headway over 1f out, went 2nd well inside final, ran on, no impression on winner
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (6 days); 1lb less (wt);
Minus: up in distance;
Verdict: won over 8f at Meydan in February and has maintained his form since the restart, though over 7f; worth a try over 8f.
Sir Busker 4-9-8 (107) Dr 7 (105.0)
’19 record: 2/2/9 ‘20 record: 2/1/3
11/07/20 Cl 2 Hcap (374.97/7) 7f gd Nwmkt 9-4 9/1 2/17 0.75l off 102 – 99.0
in rear, headway on outside from over 1f out, ridden and hung right inside final furlong, ran on, not reach winner
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (20 days); up to 8f;
Minus: up 4lbs (wt); up 5lbs (OR);
Verdict: won the Silver Hunt Cup under a big weight and then just failed to get to the winner in the Bunbury; however, although the return to 8f will suit he is up another 5lbs, which is 15lbs since the restart; testing.
Cardsharp 5-9-2 (101) Dr 5 (103.1)
‘19 record: 2/1/9 ’20 record: 0/1/6
25/07/20 Cl 2 Hcap (280/96.1) 7f gd/fm Ascot 9-3 28/1 3/19 2.5 0 off 101 – 91.1
led early, chased leaders, ridden 3f out, led and edged left over 1f out, soon headed, lost 2nd well inside final furlong, kept on
Plus: class (W); course (F); form run lto (6 days); down 1lb (wt);
Minus: going; distance; up in distance;
Verdict: promising at Ascot last weekend, but that was 7f and has no form at 8f; thus not a player for me
Prompting 4-8-4 (89) Dr 2 (86.9+)
’19 record: 0/1/2 ’20 record: 3/1/5
25/07/20 Cl 4 Hcap (50/77.5) 7f gd York 9-13 7/4 F 1/17 2.25 l off 86 – 62.9
restrained in midfield, smooth headway over 3f out, ridden to lead 2f out, kept on strongly
Plus: going (W); distance (F); form run lto (6); down 23 lbs (wt);
Minus: class; course (?); 3lbs penalty; up 2 classes;
Verdict: massive improver, but has never run in higher than Cl4 and only runs over 8f were in Cl 5; needs to improve around 20lbs on what he’s shown so far, which he may do, but not for me.
Prompting may be favourite, but he’s rising two classes and the potential that he may have will be sorely tried. I don’t see him as a worthy favourite, especially as he’s yet to win over 8f. Another that’s yet to win over 8f is Cardsharp and although he showed form last week over 7f, unlike his stable mate Vale Of Kent, I can’t see him winning today over 8f. Moreover, he’s taken a walk in the market. I can’t count out Montatham on account of the draw. Care is to be taken on the OR though, as no horse has won off a mark higher than 105 and only 4 aged 4yo or more have won. That suggests both Sir Busker and Vale Of Kent are bucking the odds. All in all I’m inclined to go for Montatham from Cliffs Of Capri and Vale Of Kent to run into the frame.