Post by Old Timer on Jul 29, 2020 10:41:54 GMT
Got the draw badly wrong yesterday, and that’s that! There isn’t a draw today, not that it looks any easier.
Goodwood 13.45 Cl Handicap 187 (88.8) 20.5f gd – 16 Run
Last year: 311 (86.0) gd 19 ran
Timoshenko 9/1 4-8-0 (81) by 0.25 l from Seinesational 22/1 4-8-0
True Destiny 11/2 4-8-1 (82) was 1 l 3rd
True Destiny 5-8-6 (86) (112.5)
’19 record: 3/3/7 ’20 record: 0/2/2
19/07/20 Cl 2 Hcap (249/94.2) 16.5 gd Newb 8-7 7/1 3/11 1.0 1off 86 – 90.5
held up towards rear, headway and hung left over 1f out, ridden and stayed on into 3rd towards finish, not pace to challenge
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (F); course (F); form run lto (10 days); down 1lb (wt);
Minus:
Verdict: off a 4lbs higher mark than when 3rd in last year’s renewal and had an outing 10 days where he finished ahead of Blue Laureate and Rochester House and meets them on the same terms today; not hard to see why he’s the market choice.
Rochester House 4-8-12 (92) (111.9)
’19 record: 3/4/14 ’20 record: 0/1/3
19/07/20 Cl 2 Hcap (249/94.2) 16.5 gd Newb 8-13 11/1 5/11 3.75 l off 92 – 94.0
led briefly, tracked leaders, led narrowly 2f out until over 1f out, lost 2nd and weakened inside the final furlong
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (F); form run lto (10 days); down 1lb (wt);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: would appear to be stable second-string, but dangerous to ignore.
Blue Laureate 5-8-13 (93) (111.8)
’19 record: 1/3/8 ’20 record: 0/2/3
19/07/20 Cl 2 Hcap (249/94.2) 16.5 gd Newb 9-0 4/1 4/11 1.75 l off 93 – 96.8
mid-division, headway under pressure 2f out, stayed on same pace inside final furlong, never going pace to challenge
Plus: class (F); going (W); form run lto (10 days); down 1lb (wt);
Minus: distance; course;
Verdict: little worried about his run over 20f at Ascot, where he slowly away and never in the race; seems to be the stable’s main hope though.
Summer Moon 4-9-8 (102) (109.4)
’19 record: 3/1/9 ’20 record: 0/1/2
16/06/20 Cl 2 Hcap (226/93.1) 20f gd Ascot 9-9 11/2 3/19 1.25 l off 100 – 103.4
tracked leader, led 6f out, ridden and headed approaching final furlong, stayed on
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (F); recent outing (24 days); down class;
Minus: course (?); up 6lbs (wt);
Verdict: closely weighted with Coeur De Lion on their running at Ascot; kept in shape with a rub in Gr 3 over 16f where he was hardly expected to win; should strip fit for today.
Smart Champion 5-8-9 (89) (107.7)
’19 record: 0/1/3 ’20 record: 1/2/5
16/06/20 Cl 2 Hcap (226/93.1) 20f gd Ascot 8-11 22/1 4/19 1.5 l off 87 – 88.7
towards rear, ridden over 2f out, headway over 1f out, ran on, not reach leaders
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (F); recent outing (32 days);
Minus: course; up 5lbs (wt);
Verdict: disappointed in the Northumberland Plate, but had run well at Ascot on seasonal return to suggest he gets the trip.
Coeur De Lion 7-9-0 (94) (107.3)
’19 record: 1/3/6 ’20 record: 1/0/2
16/06/20 Cl 2 Hcap (226/93.1) 20f gd Ascot 8-10 16/1 11/19 1 l off 91 – 95.3
towards rear, headway 2f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (43 days);
Minus: course; up 4lbs (wt); up 3lbs (OR);
Verdict: beat Summer Moon (+13), Smart Champion (+1) and Rochester House (+5) over 20f at Ascot and meets them on 2lbs, 1lb and 4lbs worse terms today; sure to be in the mix although likely one of the others’ turn today.
Wow! There were only half a dozen that I could immediately draw a line through. However, in the last 20 years only two horses have won off a mark of over 90, the last Hurricane Higgins in 2012 who carried 9-10 to victory. That suggests that The Grand Visir and Summer Moon have got a task on their hand. So that’s one down and added to that is Blue Laureate who has yet to prove he stays the trip; he didn’t at Ascot. I’m very fearful of Oleg, but he’s only showed form in lower class this season, impressive though it was. So I’ll pass.
Of my four remaining I’ve got to go for last year’s third, True Destiny with Rochester Horse making the frame ahead of Smart Champion and Coeur De Lion.
Goodwood 13.45 Cl Handicap 187 (88.8) 20.5f gd – 16 Run
Last year: 311 (86.0) gd 19 ran
Timoshenko 9/1 4-8-0 (81) by 0.25 l from Seinesational 22/1 4-8-0
True Destiny 11/2 4-8-1 (82) was 1 l 3rd
True Destiny 5-8-6 (86) (112.5)
’19 record: 3/3/7 ’20 record: 0/2/2
19/07/20 Cl 2 Hcap (249/94.2) 16.5 gd Newb 8-7 7/1 3/11 1.0 1off 86 – 90.5
held up towards rear, headway and hung left over 1f out, ridden and stayed on into 3rd towards finish, not pace to challenge
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (F); course (F); form run lto (10 days); down 1lb (wt);
Minus:
Verdict: off a 4lbs higher mark than when 3rd in last year’s renewal and had an outing 10 days where he finished ahead of Blue Laureate and Rochester House and meets them on the same terms today; not hard to see why he’s the market choice.
Rochester House 4-8-12 (92) (111.9)
’19 record: 3/4/14 ’20 record: 0/1/3
19/07/20 Cl 2 Hcap (249/94.2) 16.5 gd Newb 8-13 11/1 5/11 3.75 l off 92 – 94.0
led briefly, tracked leaders, led narrowly 2f out until over 1f out, lost 2nd and weakened inside the final furlong
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (F); form run lto (10 days); down 1lb (wt);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: would appear to be stable second-string, but dangerous to ignore.
Blue Laureate 5-8-13 (93) (111.8)
’19 record: 1/3/8 ’20 record: 0/2/3
19/07/20 Cl 2 Hcap (249/94.2) 16.5 gd Newb 9-0 4/1 4/11 1.75 l off 93 – 96.8
mid-division, headway under pressure 2f out, stayed on same pace inside final furlong, never going pace to challenge
Plus: class (F); going (W); form run lto (10 days); down 1lb (wt);
Minus: distance; course;
Verdict: little worried about his run over 20f at Ascot, where he slowly away and never in the race; seems to be the stable’s main hope though.
Summer Moon 4-9-8 (102) (109.4)
’19 record: 3/1/9 ’20 record: 0/1/2
16/06/20 Cl 2 Hcap (226/93.1) 20f gd Ascot 9-9 11/2 3/19 1.25 l off 100 – 103.4
tracked leader, led 6f out, ridden and headed approaching final furlong, stayed on
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (F); recent outing (24 days); down class;
Minus: course (?); up 6lbs (wt);
Verdict: closely weighted with Coeur De Lion on their running at Ascot; kept in shape with a rub in Gr 3 over 16f where he was hardly expected to win; should strip fit for today.
Smart Champion 5-8-9 (89) (107.7)
’19 record: 0/1/3 ’20 record: 1/2/5
16/06/20 Cl 2 Hcap (226/93.1) 20f gd Ascot 8-11 22/1 4/19 1.5 l off 87 – 88.7
towards rear, ridden over 2f out, headway over 1f out, ran on, not reach leaders
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (F); recent outing (32 days);
Minus: course; up 5lbs (wt);
Verdict: disappointed in the Northumberland Plate, but had run well at Ascot on seasonal return to suggest he gets the trip.
Coeur De Lion 7-9-0 (94) (107.3)
’19 record: 1/3/6 ’20 record: 1/0/2
16/06/20 Cl 2 Hcap (226/93.1) 20f gd Ascot 8-10 16/1 11/19 1 l off 91 – 95.3
towards rear, headway 2f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (43 days);
Minus: course; up 4lbs (wt); up 3lbs (OR);
Verdict: beat Summer Moon (+13), Smart Champion (+1) and Rochester House (+5) over 20f at Ascot and meets them on 2lbs, 1lb and 4lbs worse terms today; sure to be in the mix although likely one of the others’ turn today.
Wow! There were only half a dozen that I could immediately draw a line through. However, in the last 20 years only two horses have won off a mark of over 90, the last Hurricane Higgins in 2012 who carried 9-10 to victory. That suggests that The Grand Visir and Summer Moon have got a task on their hand. So that’s one down and added to that is Blue Laureate who has yet to prove he stays the trip; he didn’t at Ascot. I’m very fearful of Oleg, but he’s only showed form in lower class this season, impressive though it was. So I’ll pass.
Of my four remaining I’ve got to go for last year’s third, True Destiny with Rochester Horse making the frame ahead of Smart Champion and Coeur De Lion.