Post by Old Timer on Jul 28, 2020 11:43:44 GMT
Goodwood 13.45 Cl 2 Handicap 187 (96.3) 10f – 18 Run
Last year – 457 (96.4) gd – 16 ran
Fayez 25/1 5-8-12 (95) Dr 11 by 0.5 l from Jazeel 8/1 4-8-11 (94)
Fifth Position 4-9-6 (104) Dr 10 (109.8)
’19 record: 1/0/6 ’20 record: 1/2/3
18/7/20 Cl 2 Hcap (374/99.8) 10.5f gd York 9-6 6/1 3/22 4.0 l off 104 – 101.8
chased leaders on outside, chased going well 3f out, not much room 2f out, switched right, close up over 1f out, not pace of front pair inside final furlong, stayed on
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (10 days);
Minus: course;
Verdict: had the advantage of a prior outing when beating Derevo at Doncaster, but improved on that when 3rd in the John Smith’s at York; fitted with blinkers today, and a contender.
Tinandali 4-9-4 (102) Dr 11 (108.4)
’19 record: 2/0/5 ’20 record: 0/3/3
18/7/20 Cl 2 Hcap (374/99.8) 10.5f gd York 9-4 20/1 5/22 6 l off 102 – 98.4
held up towards rear, not clear run, soon switched left, ran on insider final furlong, nearest finish
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (F); form run lto (10 days)
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: inmate from Dermot Weld and looks to be improving: 2.5l 3rd to Sky Defender (-3) at Epsom and followed up by being 2l behind Fifth Position (+2) in the John Smith’s; has a 5lbs pull with Sky Defender and although no change with Fifth Position has a chance to be closer this time.
Derevo 4-8-11 (96) Dr 18 (105.8)
’19 record: 3/0/5 ’20 record: 0/1/1
14/6/20 Cl 2 Hcap (97/93.6) 10f gd Donc 9-4 11/8 F 3/7 3l off 96 – 88.8
soon prominent, led over 2f out, headed over 1f out, stayed on same pace inside final furlong
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (44 days); down 7lbs (wt);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: good record as a 3yo and looked to be improving on his return when 3rd to Fifth Position (+3) at Doncaster; Sky Defender (+3) weakened final furlong on his seasonal debut; likely to have come on for that and a contender.
Alternative Fact 5-8-11 (95) Dr 10 (101.9)
‘19 record: 1/1/7 ’20 record: 1/2/4
18/7/20 Cl 2 Hcap (97/94.2) 8f sf Hayd 9-8 7/2 2/12 4.25 l off 95 – 84.9
not much room start and slowly away, held up towards rear, headway and switched left well over 1f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, no impression on winner
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); form run lto (10 days); down 11lbs (wt);
Minus: course;
Verdict: noted that all 3 wins have come on sf and with drying ground not likely to get that today; won Cl 3 over 10f off 86 on final start last season, and won penultimate start in Cl 3 off 91; looks as if will have problems at this level, and on the ground.
Cape Cavalli 4-8-7 (91) Dr 17 (91.6)
’19 record: 1/5/8 ’20 record: 1/1/2
09/07/20 Cl 4 (50/80.2) 10.5f gd/sf Hayd 9-5 15/8 F 1/10 3.75l off 83 – 66.9
held up in rear, headway on outside 2f out, led over 1f out, clear in final furlong, comfortably
Plus: going (F); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (19 days); down 15lbs (wt);
Minus: class; up 5lbs (OR); up 2 classes;
Verdict: has retained visor from facile win at York, but that was only a Cl 4; only finished midfield in only start in Cl2 on final outing last year, so while improving is by no means proven at this level.
The trends have us looking for 4/5yo towards the head of the weights and from the top half of the draw. So that gets rid of some, including Maydanny the preferred Johnston runner but drawn in stall 1, and Bell Rock drawn in stall 4, plus I’m afraid the 9yo Restorer from stall 3. I also have a sneaking respect for Johnston’s other runner Sky Defender who ran a shocker in the John Smith’s but can be fancied on his previous Epsom win.
Of my shortlist I’m going to pass on Alternative Fact, plus also Cape Cavalli who may find this a bit of a task at present in his career. This leaves the trio of Derevo, Tinandali and Fifth Position, who are all improvers this year. I worry a little that Derevo has only had a single run and thus go with Fifth Position from Tinandali to beat him home.
York 15.45 Cl 2 Handicap 189 (93.6) 5f gd – 11 Run
Last year: 189 (89.9) gd – 13 ran
Green Power 16/1 4-8-13 (94) Dr 14 by Poyle Vinnie 33/1 9-8-4 (85) Dr 13
Recon Mission 4-9-2 (95) Dr 5 (108.3)
’19 record: 1/1/7 ’20 record:
19/07/20 Cl 4 Hcap (97/98.5) 6f gd Newb 9-5 12/1 3/19 2.25 l off 87 – 96.3
led, ridden over 1f out, headed and not pace of winner final furlong, lost second post
Plus: class (W); going (F); won (W); form run lto (9 days); down 3lbs (wt);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: normally runs over 6f but ran very well over 5f at Ascot last year; high class Cl 4 hcap lto, losing out to a very promising Nahaarr and lost 2nd on post; not without a chance.
Acclaim The Nation 7-8-8 (89) Dr 1 (107.6)
’19 record: 2/4/10 ’20 record: 0/2/4
19/07/20 Cl 2 Hcap (107/94.5) 5f gd York 8-13 20/1 2/10 0.75 l off 89 – 87.6
made most and overall leader when groups merged halfway, ridden and headed inside final furlong, ran on
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); form run lto (9 days); down 5lbs (wt);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: career best at York lto, but bit late in his career to be improving and has to be quickly away from stall 1; nevertheless not without a chance.
Count D’orsay 4-8-12 (93) Dr 6 (102.8)
’19 record: 3/2/7 ’20 record: 0/1/3
06/06/20 Cl 2 Hcap (97/94.2) 5f gd/fm Nwmkt 9-1 9/1 3/25 2.25 l off 96 – 86.8
tracked leader, pushed along and every chance over 1f out, stayed on one pace
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); recent outing (23 days); down 9lbs (wt); down 2lbs (OR);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: promising Newmarket return and didn’t stay 6f at Ascot, but disappointed at Doncaster lto, so needs to return to last season’s form to have a chance here.
Celsius 4-8-10 (91) Dr 10 (97.8)
’19 record: 4/1/6 ‘20 record: 1/1/3
10/07/20 Cl 3 Hcap (97/86.2) 5f sf Nwmkt 9-8 85/40 F 2/5 1.25 l off 91 – 79.8
keen close up in rear, ridden and headway inside final furlong, ran on to go 2nd towards finish
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (18 days); down 12lbs (wt);
Minus: class; up in class;
Verdict: beat Acclaim The Nation (+2) by at Haydock on return and lost all chance at start in his only try in Cl 2 there next time out; dropped to Cl 3 left with too much to do in a 5-horse hcap at Newmarket; has won over C&D, but that was a Cl 3 off 70 last season; not favourite for me.
Quickly, I’m going for Recon Mission from Acclaim The Nation with Count D’orsay.
Last year – 457 (96.4) gd – 16 ran
Fayez 25/1 5-8-12 (95) Dr 11 by 0.5 l from Jazeel 8/1 4-8-11 (94)
Fifth Position 4-9-6 (104) Dr 10 (109.8)
’19 record: 1/0/6 ’20 record: 1/2/3
18/7/20 Cl 2 Hcap (374/99.8) 10.5f gd York 9-6 6/1 3/22 4.0 l off 104 – 101.8
chased leaders on outside, chased going well 3f out, not much room 2f out, switched right, close up over 1f out, not pace of front pair inside final furlong, stayed on
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (10 days);
Minus: course;
Verdict: had the advantage of a prior outing when beating Derevo at Doncaster, but improved on that when 3rd in the John Smith’s at York; fitted with blinkers today, and a contender.
Tinandali 4-9-4 (102) Dr 11 (108.4)
’19 record: 2/0/5 ’20 record: 0/3/3
18/7/20 Cl 2 Hcap (374/99.8) 10.5f gd York 9-4 20/1 5/22 6 l off 102 – 98.4
held up towards rear, not clear run, soon switched left, ran on insider final furlong, nearest finish
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (F); form run lto (10 days)
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: inmate from Dermot Weld and looks to be improving: 2.5l 3rd to Sky Defender (-3) at Epsom and followed up by being 2l behind Fifth Position (+2) in the John Smith’s; has a 5lbs pull with Sky Defender and although no change with Fifth Position has a chance to be closer this time.
Derevo 4-8-11 (96) Dr 18 (105.8)
’19 record: 3/0/5 ’20 record: 0/1/1
14/6/20 Cl 2 Hcap (97/93.6) 10f gd Donc 9-4 11/8 F 3/7 3l off 96 – 88.8
soon prominent, led over 2f out, headed over 1f out, stayed on same pace inside final furlong
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (44 days); down 7lbs (wt);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: good record as a 3yo and looked to be improving on his return when 3rd to Fifth Position (+3) at Doncaster; Sky Defender (+3) weakened final furlong on his seasonal debut; likely to have come on for that and a contender.
Alternative Fact 5-8-11 (95) Dr 10 (101.9)
‘19 record: 1/1/7 ’20 record: 1/2/4
18/7/20 Cl 2 Hcap (97/94.2) 8f sf Hayd 9-8 7/2 2/12 4.25 l off 95 – 84.9
not much room start and slowly away, held up towards rear, headway and switched left well over 1f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, no impression on winner
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); form run lto (10 days); down 11lbs (wt);
Minus: course;
Verdict: noted that all 3 wins have come on sf and with drying ground not likely to get that today; won Cl 3 over 10f off 86 on final start last season, and won penultimate start in Cl 3 off 91; looks as if will have problems at this level, and on the ground.
Cape Cavalli 4-8-7 (91) Dr 17 (91.6)
’19 record: 1/5/8 ’20 record: 1/1/2
09/07/20 Cl 4 (50/80.2) 10.5f gd/sf Hayd 9-5 15/8 F 1/10 3.75l off 83 – 66.9
held up in rear, headway on outside 2f out, led over 1f out, clear in final furlong, comfortably
Plus: going (F); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (19 days); down 15lbs (wt);
Minus: class; up 5lbs (OR); up 2 classes;
Verdict: has retained visor from facile win at York, but that was only a Cl 4; only finished midfield in only start in Cl2 on final outing last year, so while improving is by no means proven at this level.
The trends have us looking for 4/5yo towards the head of the weights and from the top half of the draw. So that gets rid of some, including Maydanny the preferred Johnston runner but drawn in stall 1, and Bell Rock drawn in stall 4, plus I’m afraid the 9yo Restorer from stall 3. I also have a sneaking respect for Johnston’s other runner Sky Defender who ran a shocker in the John Smith’s but can be fancied on his previous Epsom win.
Of my shortlist I’m going to pass on Alternative Fact, plus also Cape Cavalli who may find this a bit of a task at present in his career. This leaves the trio of Derevo, Tinandali and Fifth Position, who are all improvers this year. I worry a little that Derevo has only had a single run and thus go with Fifth Position from Tinandali to beat him home.
York 15.45 Cl 2 Handicap 189 (93.6) 5f gd – 11 Run
Last year: 189 (89.9) gd – 13 ran
Green Power 16/1 4-8-13 (94) Dr 14 by Poyle Vinnie 33/1 9-8-4 (85) Dr 13
Recon Mission 4-9-2 (95) Dr 5 (108.3)
’19 record: 1/1/7 ’20 record:
19/07/20 Cl 4 Hcap (97/98.5) 6f gd Newb 9-5 12/1 3/19 2.25 l off 87 – 96.3
led, ridden over 1f out, headed and not pace of winner final furlong, lost second post
Plus: class (W); going (F); won (W); form run lto (9 days); down 3lbs (wt);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: normally runs over 6f but ran very well over 5f at Ascot last year; high class Cl 4 hcap lto, losing out to a very promising Nahaarr and lost 2nd on post; not without a chance.
Acclaim The Nation 7-8-8 (89) Dr 1 (107.6)
’19 record: 2/4/10 ’20 record: 0/2/4
19/07/20 Cl 2 Hcap (107/94.5) 5f gd York 8-13 20/1 2/10 0.75 l off 89 – 87.6
made most and overall leader when groups merged halfway, ridden and headed inside final furlong, ran on
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); form run lto (9 days); down 5lbs (wt);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: career best at York lto, but bit late in his career to be improving and has to be quickly away from stall 1; nevertheless not without a chance.
Count D’orsay 4-8-12 (93) Dr 6 (102.8)
’19 record: 3/2/7 ’20 record: 0/1/3
06/06/20 Cl 2 Hcap (97/94.2) 5f gd/fm Nwmkt 9-1 9/1 3/25 2.25 l off 96 – 86.8
tracked leader, pushed along and every chance over 1f out, stayed on one pace
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); recent outing (23 days); down 9lbs (wt); down 2lbs (OR);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: promising Newmarket return and didn’t stay 6f at Ascot, but disappointed at Doncaster lto, so needs to return to last season’s form to have a chance here.
Celsius 4-8-10 (91) Dr 10 (97.8)
’19 record: 4/1/6 ‘20 record: 1/1/3
10/07/20 Cl 3 Hcap (97/86.2) 5f sf Nwmkt 9-8 85/40 F 2/5 1.25 l off 91 – 79.8
keen close up in rear, ridden and headway inside final furlong, ran on to go 2nd towards finish
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (18 days); down 12lbs (wt);
Minus: class; up in class;
Verdict: beat Acclaim The Nation (+2) by at Haydock on return and lost all chance at start in his only try in Cl 2 there next time out; dropped to Cl 3 left with too much to do in a 5-horse hcap at Newmarket; has won over C&D, but that was a Cl 3 off 70 last season; not favourite for me.
Quickly, I’m going for Recon Mission from Acclaim The Nation with Count D’orsay.