Post by Old Timer on Jul 10, 2020 11:00:56 GMT
I know I say 40/1 shots occasionally win, but it seems the outsiders have winning a mite too freely of late!
Newmarket 15.00 Cl 2 Hcap 374 (98.0) 14f sf – 17 Run (16 at best)
Last year: 747 (95.7) gd/fm – 17 ran
King’s Advice 10/1 5-9-4 (103) Dr 3 by 2.5l from Caliburn 13/2 4-9-2 (97) Dr 17
Themaxwecan 4-9-7 (103) Dr 3 (106.4)
’19 record: 3/3/10 ’20 record: 0/1/2
17/06/20 Cl 2 Hcap (225/100.8) 14f gd Ascot 9-7 16/1 4/16 5 l off 102 – 99.4
raced wide in mid-division, headway towards outside when hampered 2f out, ridden and stayed on from 1f out, 4th and one pace inside final furlong
Plus: class (W); distance (F); course (F); form run lto (23 days);
Minus: going;
Verdict: had a fine season last year, although he seemed to be better over 16f than 14f; also a question about his ability of sf ground, although he failed to stay the Cesarewitch;
Star Of The East 6-8-10 (92) Dr 11 (104.3) N/R
’20 record: 0/1/1
28/06/20 Cl 3 Hcap (67/92.8) 14f gd/fm Nwmkt 9-3 9/4 F 2/6 0.5 l off 92 – 86.3
tracked leader, every chance entering last 2f, ridden to press winner final furlong, no extra towards finish
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (12 days); down 7lbs;
Minus: going (?); up in class;
Verdict: missed 2019 season but after a down the field run here over 12f gave a much better display over 14f, when only going down by 0.5l; likely to come on again for the run and having won over C&D here in Cl2 off a 3lbs higher mark very much a live contender.
Cape Coast 6-8-8 (90) Dr 10 (94.6+)
’20 record: 0/1/1
22/06/20 Cl 3 Hcap (67/84.2) 12f gd Thirsk 9-7 6/1 2/8 1.25 l off 90 – 74.6
raced keenly, led 2f, tracked winner, ridden disputing 2nd inside final furlong, no chance with winner
Plus: class (F+); distance (F+); form run lto (18 days); down 13lbs (wt);
Minus: going (?); course (?); up in class;
Verdict: not seen since 3yo days when just pipped at Ascot in Cl 2 and close up staying on 2nd at Chester in a listed hcap over 13.5f; returned form lengthy break over 12f at Thirsk 18 days ago and couldn’t get near the winner; likely to improve on that, and will likely appreciate the step in trip too, question of ‘bounce’ after such a long break, but Frankie booked and can’t be ignored.
Holy Kingdom 4-9-0 (96) Dr 13 (94.1)
‘19 record: 1/5/9 ’20 record: 2/0/2
20/06/20 Cl 3 Hcap (67/86.1) 14f gd Nwmkt 9-9 7/4 F 2/9 (awd race) 0.02 l off 92 – 80.1
close up in chasing group, pushed along over 2f out, headway over 1f out, chased winner inside final furlong every chance when carried left towards finish, just held (awd race)
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (20 days); down 9lbs (wt);
Minus: up 4lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: improved last season showing 14f was his distance in his final 3 starts; has carried on in same vein this winning over 12f and 14f (via the stewards room) here; steps upmin class today, but could still improve and only has 4lbs more,
Christopher Wood 5-8-6 (88) Dr 12 (86.0+)
’20 record: 1/0/1
10/6/20 Cl 4 Hcap (47/80.0) 12f gd Pont 9-7 7/2 1/11 0.5 l off 85 – 64.0
mid-division, closed on inside over 4f out, not much room and lost place over 1f out, soon switched right, stayed on well inside final furlong, led close home
Plus: going (W); course (F); form run lto (30 days); down 18lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); distance (?); up 3lbs (OR); up 2 classes;
Verdict: won over 8f when with Bell, but moved to Nicholls’ yard at the end of ’18 season, some success over hurdles but has had two wind operations; reverted to Flat at Pontefract last month and ran on strongly to win over 12f; raised 3lbs for that but should stay 14f; however is going up 2 classes and not proven at this level on the Flat although he is over hurdles.
In the hope that there’s not another 40/1 shot, I’ve drawn a line through much of the field. I’m also not that interested in the forecast favourite, despite the fact he’s not been out of the top two in his four starts to date, That’s the problem, just four start and the last one was 14 months ago over 12.5f. Not for me, I’m afraid. Nor do I fancy last year’s winner, King’s Advice on account of top-weight and the sf going, the only one of Johnston’s four I’ve ignored.
That leaves me with a Johnston trio and a couple of improvers. Of the improvers, Christopher Wood is Nicholls switching codes on account of his daughter, he may be up to it. The other, Holy Kingdom is definitely improving but trying for a hat-trick, a difficult feat in a Cl2 hcap and he may just fail. Of Johnston’s trio the obvious one is Themaxwecan who was 4th over 14f at Ascot, but there are some doubts in that he seems to prefer 16f and also has shown a dislike for sf ground, so I feel that Ryan Moore might have chosen the wrong one. I rather liked the chances of Star Of The East, but he’s now a N/R, so I’ll have to side with the other one, Cape Coast who came back from an extended break since his 3yo days to run a credible 2nd over 12f at Thirsk. He may ‘bounce’ but that may also have set him up for today’s trip and Frankie has a 25% win rate for Johnston. One I see they’re backing is Ghosxxxxch, who is difficult to assess at present so I hope he doesn’t win! So my picks are Cape Coast from Christopher Wood with perhaps Holy Kingdom relegating Themaxwecan to fourth.
Newmarket 15.00 Cl 2 Hcap 374 (98.0) 14f sf – 17 Run (16 at best)
Last year: 747 (95.7) gd/fm – 17 ran
King’s Advice 10/1 5-9-4 (103) Dr 3 by 2.5l from Caliburn 13/2 4-9-2 (97) Dr 17
Themaxwecan 4-9-7 (103) Dr 3 (106.4)
’19 record: 3/3/10 ’20 record: 0/1/2
17/06/20 Cl 2 Hcap (225/100.8) 14f gd Ascot 9-7 16/1 4/16 5 l off 102 – 99.4
raced wide in mid-division, headway towards outside when hampered 2f out, ridden and stayed on from 1f out, 4th and one pace inside final furlong
Plus: class (W); distance (F); course (F); form run lto (23 days);
Minus: going;
Verdict: had a fine season last year, although he seemed to be better over 16f than 14f; also a question about his ability of sf ground, although he failed to stay the Cesarewitch;
Star Of The East 6-8-10 (92) Dr 11 (104.3) N/R
’20 record: 0/1/1
28/06/20 Cl 3 Hcap (67/92.8) 14f gd/fm Nwmkt 9-3 9/4 F 2/6 0.5 l off 92 – 86.3
tracked leader, every chance entering last 2f, ridden to press winner final furlong, no extra towards finish
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (12 days); down 7lbs;
Minus: going (?); up in class;
Verdict: missed 2019 season but after a down the field run here over 12f gave a much better display over 14f, when only going down by 0.5l; likely to come on again for the run and having won over C&D here in Cl2 off a 3lbs higher mark very much a live contender.
Cape Coast 6-8-8 (90) Dr 10 (94.6+)
’20 record: 0/1/1
22/06/20 Cl 3 Hcap (67/84.2) 12f gd Thirsk 9-7 6/1 2/8 1.25 l off 90 – 74.6
raced keenly, led 2f, tracked winner, ridden disputing 2nd inside final furlong, no chance with winner
Plus: class (F+); distance (F+); form run lto (18 days); down 13lbs (wt);
Minus: going (?); course (?); up in class;
Verdict: not seen since 3yo days when just pipped at Ascot in Cl 2 and close up staying on 2nd at Chester in a listed hcap over 13.5f; returned form lengthy break over 12f at Thirsk 18 days ago and couldn’t get near the winner; likely to improve on that, and will likely appreciate the step in trip too, question of ‘bounce’ after such a long break, but Frankie booked and can’t be ignored.
Holy Kingdom 4-9-0 (96) Dr 13 (94.1)
‘19 record: 1/5/9 ’20 record: 2/0/2
20/06/20 Cl 3 Hcap (67/86.1) 14f gd Nwmkt 9-9 7/4 F 2/9 (awd race) 0.02 l off 92 – 80.1
close up in chasing group, pushed along over 2f out, headway over 1f out, chased winner inside final furlong every chance when carried left towards finish, just held (awd race)
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (20 days); down 9lbs (wt);
Minus: up 4lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: improved last season showing 14f was his distance in his final 3 starts; has carried on in same vein this winning over 12f and 14f (via the stewards room) here; steps upmin class today, but could still improve and only has 4lbs more,
Christopher Wood 5-8-6 (88) Dr 12 (86.0+)
’20 record: 1/0/1
10/6/20 Cl 4 Hcap (47/80.0) 12f gd Pont 9-7 7/2 1/11 0.5 l off 85 – 64.0
mid-division, closed on inside over 4f out, not much room and lost place over 1f out, soon switched right, stayed on well inside final furlong, led close home
Plus: going (W); course (F); form run lto (30 days); down 18lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); distance (?); up 3lbs (OR); up 2 classes;
Verdict: won over 8f when with Bell, but moved to Nicholls’ yard at the end of ’18 season, some success over hurdles but has had two wind operations; reverted to Flat at Pontefract last month and ran on strongly to win over 12f; raised 3lbs for that but should stay 14f; however is going up 2 classes and not proven at this level on the Flat although he is over hurdles.
In the hope that there’s not another 40/1 shot, I’ve drawn a line through much of the field. I’m also not that interested in the forecast favourite, despite the fact he’s not been out of the top two in his four starts to date, That’s the problem, just four start and the last one was 14 months ago over 12.5f. Not for me, I’m afraid. Nor do I fancy last year’s winner, King’s Advice on account of top-weight and the sf going, the only one of Johnston’s four I’ve ignored.
That leaves me with a Johnston trio and a couple of improvers. Of the improvers, Christopher Wood is Nicholls switching codes on account of his daughter, he may be up to it. The other, Holy Kingdom is definitely improving but trying for a hat-trick, a difficult feat in a Cl2 hcap and he may just fail. Of Johnston’s trio the obvious one is Themaxwecan who was 4th over 14f at Ascot, but there are some doubts in that he seems to prefer 16f and also has shown a dislike for sf ground, so I feel that Ryan Moore might have chosen the wrong one. I rather liked the chances of Star Of The East, but he’s now a N/R, so I’ll have to side with the other one, Cape Coast who came back from an extended break since his 3yo days to run a credible 2nd over 12f at Thirsk. He may ‘bounce’ but that may also have set him up for today’s trip and Frankie has a 25% win rate for Johnston. One I see they’re backing is Ghosxxxxch, who is difficult to assess at present so I hope he doesn’t win! So my picks are Cape Coast from Christopher Wood with perhaps Holy Kingdom relegating Themaxwecan to fourth.