Post by Old Timer on Jul 9, 2020 10:51:44 GMT
Although I picked the wrong one, I was quite happy with the Old Newton Cup on Sunday, as I was there or there about. Maybe things are starting to pick up. See how we go today.
Newmarket 15.35 Cl 2 3yo-Hcap 375 (90.8) 6f gd – 20 Run (17 at best)
Last year: 622 (90.7) gd/fm – 20 ran
Pass The Vino 25/1 3-8-4 (85) Dr 20 by 0.05 l from Moss Gill 8/1 3-8-3 (84) Dr 1
Lexington Dash 3-9-0 (95) Dr 10 (106.7)
‘19 record: 0/1/2 ’20 record: 2/1/3
28/06/20 Cl 2 Hcap (97/89.5) 6f gd/fm Nwmkt 9-3 11/4 1/4 3.75 l off 89 – 87.7
tracked leading trio, wide and headway over 1f out, led entering final furlong, soon clear, eased towards finish
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (11 days); down 8lbs (wt);
Minus: 6lbs penalty;
Verdict: following a wind op has found his form winning a novice and then storming clear on his hcap debut, albeit a 4-horse race, here under today’s claimer; carries a 6lbs penalty, but in entitles to 2lbs more in future.
Byline 3-8-7 (88) Dr 14 (103.2)
’19 record: 1/1/4 ’20 record: 0/1/1
8/6/20 Cl 3 Hcap (67/86.9) 6f gd/sf Hayd 9-4 16/1 3/11 1.5 l off 87 – 80.1
led, ridden and headed over 2f out, stayed on one pace final furlong
Plus: going (F); distance (W); form run lto (31 days); down 14lbs (wt);
Minus: class; course (?); up 1lb (OR); up in class;
Verdict: won just the one as a 2yo, but contested Gr 1 races; pleasing enough return when 3rd to Brad The Brief; meets him on 8lbs better terms today thanks to his rider’s claim and likely to be better for the run.
Meraas 3-9-2 (97) Dr 16 (100.2)
’20 record: 2/1/3
15/6/20 Cl 2 Hcap (97/88.0) 6f gd Pont 8-13 5/4 F 1/8 1.5 l off 91 – 88.2
made most, clear 2f out, reduced lead inside last 100 yds, but never looked like being caught
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (24 days);
Minus: course (?); up 3lbs (wt); up 6lbs (OR);
Verdict: unraced at 2yo, but has rapidly made his mark as 3yo; beat Troubador (+8) by 1.5l, at Pontefract lto, never looking like getting caught, and looks like confirming the form on 5lbs worse terms especially with the favoured high draw; whether that will be good enough we’ll have to see.
Dancin Inthestreet 3-8-4 (85) Dr 19 (99.8)
’19 record: 1/1/3 ‘20 record: 0/2/2
19/6/20 Cl 2 Hcap (226/91.9) 5f gd/sf Ascot 8-0 9/1 3/21 3.75 l off 83 – 72.8
slowly into stride, raced centre, held up in rear, headway when not clear run over 1f out, soon switched left, ran on inside final furlong, finished well and went 3rd towards finish
Plus: class (F); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (20 days); 1lb less (wt); up in distance;
Minus: going (?); 2lbs more (OR);
Verdict: has had trouble in running in both his starts this year, although has finished well to make the frame; moved back to 6f, which should give him a better chance.
Brad The Brief 3-9-1 (96) Dr 18 (99.1) (N/R)
’19 record: 2/0/3 ’20 record: 1/1/2
5/7/20 Cl 2 Stks (93/) 6f sf Hayd 8-13 5/2 3/7 3 l off 96
tracked leader, ridden and every chance over 1f out, kept on one pace
8/6/20 Cl 3 Hcap (67/86.9) 6f gd/sf Hayd 9-7 3/1 1/11 0.5l off 90 – 86.1
in touch, headway 2f out, ridden and stayed on to lead near finish
Plus: class (F); distance (W); form run lto (4 days);
Minus: going (?), course (?); up 2lbs (wt);
Verdict: Won 3 of 4 at 5/6f as a 2yo, and made a winning return at 3yo in a Cl 3, and acquitted himself quite well in Cl 2 Stks 4 days ago; interesting returned to handicaps.
First 3yo-handicap of the year and far from easy, plus I see one of my hopefuls is a non-runner. Still, the past trends give us some pointers, one being that the winner is generally drawn in double figures. Another that caught my eye was that the favourite hasn’t won in 14 years. And an anomaly, past winners have won but once in the past 14 years. Fillies, do not do well, which besides ruling out Exceptional, is also another strike against our favourite Dance Inthestreet.
So that being the case, all I’m left with is Byline from Lexington Dash and Meraas. Now watch Dance Inthestreet prove all the stats wrong!
Newmarket 15.35 Cl 2 3yo-Hcap 375 (90.8) 6f gd – 20 Run (17 at best)
Last year: 622 (90.7) gd/fm – 20 ran
Pass The Vino 25/1 3-8-4 (85) Dr 20 by 0.05 l from Moss Gill 8/1 3-8-3 (84) Dr 1
Lexington Dash 3-9-0 (95) Dr 10 (106.7)
‘19 record: 0/1/2 ’20 record: 2/1/3
28/06/20 Cl 2 Hcap (97/89.5) 6f gd/fm Nwmkt 9-3 11/4 1/4 3.75 l off 89 – 87.7
tracked leading trio, wide and headway over 1f out, led entering final furlong, soon clear, eased towards finish
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (11 days); down 8lbs (wt);
Minus: 6lbs penalty;
Verdict: following a wind op has found his form winning a novice and then storming clear on his hcap debut, albeit a 4-horse race, here under today’s claimer; carries a 6lbs penalty, but in entitles to 2lbs more in future.
Byline 3-8-7 (88) Dr 14 (103.2)
’19 record: 1/1/4 ’20 record: 0/1/1
8/6/20 Cl 3 Hcap (67/86.9) 6f gd/sf Hayd 9-4 16/1 3/11 1.5 l off 87 – 80.1
led, ridden and headed over 2f out, stayed on one pace final furlong
Plus: going (F); distance (W); form run lto (31 days); down 14lbs (wt);
Minus: class; course (?); up 1lb (OR); up in class;
Verdict: won just the one as a 2yo, but contested Gr 1 races; pleasing enough return when 3rd to Brad The Brief; meets him on 8lbs better terms today thanks to his rider’s claim and likely to be better for the run.
Meraas 3-9-2 (97) Dr 16 (100.2)
’20 record: 2/1/3
15/6/20 Cl 2 Hcap (97/88.0) 6f gd Pont 8-13 5/4 F 1/8 1.5 l off 91 – 88.2
made most, clear 2f out, reduced lead inside last 100 yds, but never looked like being caught
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (24 days);
Minus: course (?); up 3lbs (wt); up 6lbs (OR);
Verdict: unraced at 2yo, but has rapidly made his mark as 3yo; beat Troubador (+8) by 1.5l, at Pontefract lto, never looking like getting caught, and looks like confirming the form on 5lbs worse terms especially with the favoured high draw; whether that will be good enough we’ll have to see.
Dancin Inthestreet 3-8-4 (85) Dr 19 (99.8)
’19 record: 1/1/3 ‘20 record: 0/2/2
19/6/20 Cl 2 Hcap (226/91.9) 5f gd/sf Ascot 8-0 9/1 3/21 3.75 l off 83 – 72.8
slowly into stride, raced centre, held up in rear, headway when not clear run over 1f out, soon switched left, ran on inside final furlong, finished well and went 3rd towards finish
Plus: class (F); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (20 days); 1lb less (wt); up in distance;
Minus: going (?); 2lbs more (OR);
Verdict: has had trouble in running in both his starts this year, although has finished well to make the frame; moved back to 6f, which should give him a better chance.
Brad The Brief 3-9-1 (96) Dr 18 (99.1) (N/R)
’19 record: 2/0/3 ’20 record: 1/1/2
5/7/20 Cl 2 Stks (93/) 6f sf Hayd 8-13 5/2 3/7 3 l off 96
tracked leader, ridden and every chance over 1f out, kept on one pace
8/6/20 Cl 3 Hcap (67/86.9) 6f gd/sf Hayd 9-7 3/1 1/11 0.5l off 90 – 86.1
in touch, headway 2f out, ridden and stayed on to lead near finish
Plus: class (F); distance (W); form run lto (4 days);
Minus: going (?), course (?); up 2lbs (wt);
Verdict: Won 3 of 4 at 5/6f as a 2yo, and made a winning return at 3yo in a Cl 3, and acquitted himself quite well in Cl 2 Stks 4 days ago; interesting returned to handicaps.
First 3yo-handicap of the year and far from easy, plus I see one of my hopefuls is a non-runner. Still, the past trends give us some pointers, one being that the winner is generally drawn in double figures. Another that caught my eye was that the favourite hasn’t won in 14 years. And an anomaly, past winners have won but once in the past 14 years. Fillies, do not do well, which besides ruling out Exceptional, is also another strike against our favourite Dance Inthestreet.
So that being the case, all I’m left with is Byline from Lexington Dash and Meraas. Now watch Dance Inthestreet prove all the stats wrong!