Numpty Names 'Em

[numpty]

First post and late with it but I only just signed so accept my apologies for starters  . More about me another time maybe just to say I have followed VDW since the saga began in 1978.
I thought I might something a little different than the usual approach as i am certain most with be familiar with that. Not that it's great deal different - just 'narrowing the field' to check out the most consistent amongst them. It comes from a VDW Sports Forum letter from March 1980, 'Flying Dutchman believes in consistence':

Quote:'Readers who rely on ratings may deduce that by taking the top 5 or 6 rated and coupling with the 5 or 6 most consistent horses in the field they will trap a lot of winners ...In non-hcaps I suggest sticking to the top 4 rated'.

The second part of the system is advice from a VDW Sports Forum letter, 1981:

Quote: "In march 1981 I suggested, 'to confirm what the figures say it is necessary to study the form of all concerned taking particular note of the class in which they ran , the courses they ran on, the pace and going of the respective races, distances won or beaten by and most important of all how they performed in the later stages of each race."

This is me - there you have it then! Just a synopsis of a couple of races as a taster:

Kempton 7.30 just one qualifier, which doesn't look like a bet. (data from RP online)

5. War Brigade 85 RPR, 10 consistency. LTO 279? (181J?) -27lbs*, 13 of 15 -39L? 28/1 St - mid division ridden weakened. (probably a better bet would be beat The Judge 86 RPR, 15 consistency - so fails on consistency as a possible).

Kempton 8.30. Numbers 1 and 7 are possible bets IMO.
1. May Remain 91 RPR, 12 consistency. LTO 7*,  +4lbs, -1 class*,2 of 10 -nk*, Kem, 11/1, St/Sl, kept on well went 2nd.
2. Private Matter 88 RPR, 14 consistency. LTO 5*, +2lbs, -1 class*,  7 of 10 -3 1/2L , Lin, 10/1, St/Sl, ridden headed no extra final furlong.
6. Three Little Birds 88 RPR, 14 consistency. LTO 184? -1lb*, = class, 4 of 9 -3/4L, Lin, 3/1F, ST, outpaced rallied no extra finish
7. Human Nature 89 RPR, 14 consistency. LTO 95? +7lbs? =class, 2 of 7 - 1 1/2L*, 3/1 Cfd, ST, not clear run ran on well not reach winner.

[numpty]

Worked out OK yesterday, though I should probably post in the VDW threads with these. I note there is a load of stuff of mine under my nickname Jackform in the archive. I'm not a total VDW devotee as I prefer to do my own thing, although I have returned to his ideas many times due to the interest of others.
I should say that Tony peach is a friend of mine and I helped him put together the VDW booklets in the first place. I have been following UK mainland racing off and on since 1951, when I was 15 years old and started work.
Hopefully I will be able to provide posts that will be of some interest to members.

[numpty]

Newbury the principal meeting stages a very low-grade card today with nothing to get enthused about as far as I am concerned  .

Newbury (going forecast G with some GS)
4.45 Market expected 09.55*  no's 3, 4, 5 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 9/4, possible contender 9/2, not expected longer than 9/1.

2. Silkestone (14/1 mkt) 90/RPR/12 consistency. LTO 285 (126J)? -16lbs* -1 class* Don £4k 20f Gd 9 of 10 -55L 10/1 ridden out paced weakened.
3*. Involved (4/5)  96/9 LTO 7* =wgt = class Nmk £5k 10f GF 2 of 12 -nk* 11/2 made strong challenge final furlong kept on just held.

Comment: Involved currently the strong market leader and very short opposite the risk and just a watching brief for me.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
Verdict

INVOLVED was only beaten narrowly on his first outing for George Boughey at Newmarket last week and connections attempt to take advantage off this mark before being reassessed by the handicapper. Tell William is potentially open to improvement for the step up in trip based on his last couple of starts at Bath, while Champs De Reves is respected having built up a good rapport with Megan Nicholls.



Top Tip: INVOLVED (3)

Watch out for: TELL WILLIAM (5)

[Kimmy]

Welcome. Am sure you will find Oldtimers thread interesting and he yours.

[dennisg]

welcome numpty, vdw always sparked an intense debate back in the days of the raceform handicap book (sadly missed)

i for one even now consult my old books and pamphlets from those halcyon days back in the 1980's. as relevant today as they were then. thank you for joining the forum

regards dennis

[numpty]

Thank you for the welcome let's hope I will be a regular visitor - you never know at my age  . I will do a little more with VDW/G Hall/GR Lincoln as he was in Sports Forum, nothing earth-shattering as I only went as far as the 'elementary mechanical procedure' and never followed the zealots into the Roushayd race and how trainers place their charges.
Although he turned out to be a fantasist for unknown reasons of his own his opinions were very good of his time before the personal computer took off.
The element that caused the most interest at the time was the mystery of the 'key' race that readers found difficult to fathom. I venture to suggest that the place to look is in the letter dealing with form percentages:

Quote, 'Ever optimistic has selected 10 form combinations and he may care to know the percentage wins next time out from these to compare with prices in order to assist him in establishing the the viability of the idea.'

To be considered as a 'key' race at at least three of the runners must conform. The Curragh 6.10 does not quite conform, Crossfirehurricane being best, but close enough for me to consider today. VDW only starred* his filters whereas I prefer to rate them and convert their overall rating into odds to compare with the early market. The most important part of the approach for me is the 'subject to further consideration' element.

Curragh (going forecast GF watered) RP Spotlight selects Crossfirehurricane (4 pundits oppose)
6.10 Market expected 09.20* no's 1, 3, 5, 7 indicating a win restricted to these.

1*. 2 = 14/1 fair odds ( 6/1 mkt) 2 tips
2. 0 = ? (9/1)
3*. 9 = 95/40 (9/2) Crossfirehurricane. 1 tip LTO 105? +2lbs Dun 8f? St 1 of 9 +1/2L* 5/2 ridden kept on well to lead narrowly beat Choice Of Mine.
4. 0 = ? (50/1)
5*. 5 = 5/1 (9/2) Gold Maze. LTO257? +2lbs Cur 8f? Hy 3 of 5 -4L? 9/1, no extra final furlong kept on same pace.
6*. 11 = 7/4 (13/8) Mythical. 2 tips +5lbs Sai 10f* Hy 3 of 8 -3.5L* 48/10, tried to challenge shaken off lost 2nd place finally.
7. 0 = ? (13/2)
8. 3 = 9/1 (12/1)

Comment: Mythical is well supported early and a saver on Crossfirehurricane may not be amiss.

ATR form verdict in comparison
The 106-rated MYTHICAL is the one they all have to beat as he could hardly have been more impressive when shedding his maiden tag at Gowran last September and was then deemed good enough for the Group 3 Zetland Stakes at Newmarket before he performed creditably in the Group 1 Criterium De Saint-Cloud. Providing he goes on this quicker ground, he should have too much class for Crossfirehurricane, who is unbeaten in three starts but has more on his plate than when beating his stable companion Choice Of Mine (second) in Listed company at Dundalk in February. Gold Maze is also interesting on the evidence of his third in the Group 2 Beresford Stakes here.



Top Tip: MYTHICAL (6)

Watch out for: CROSSFIREHURRICANE (3)

[numpty]

Not set the place on fire yet but early days  . Had cursory look at the Irish 1,000gns just the consistent runners from the top six D. Mail Formcast.

Curragh (going forecast GF watered) RP Spotlight selects Albigna.
7.15 Market expected 10.35* no's 1, 10, 5, 13, 12 indicating a win restricted to these.

5*. Fancy Blue (9/1 mkt) unbeaten
13*. So Wonderful (9/1) maiden

Comment: The overall pro opinion is Albigna (7/4 mkt) on form and if fit has to be a major player. Fancy Blue for me each-way at the current odds.

ATR form verdict in comparison.

ALBIGNA sets the standard in this contest having scored in the Prix Marcel Boussac last October and she was not disgraced when not suited by the test of speed in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. She may prove to be better over slightly further than this in time but the daughter of Zoffany still rates as the one to beat. The maiden So Wonderful should not be underestimated having run well in defeat on multiple occasions last year, including when in front of the selection in the Moyglare. The shortlist is completed by Fancy Blue and Peaceful.



Top Tip: ALBIGNA (1)

Watch out for: SO WONDERFUL (13)