Post by Old Timer on Mar 7, 2020 11:54:46 GMT
Getting rained out it seems, but at least there’s a couple of AW races to look at this week as I pay my annual visit to Wolverhampton. I don’t do too well normally at either the AW, or especially Wolverhampton!
Wolverhampton 13.35 Cl 2 Hcap 511 (95.3) 8.5f AW – 13 Ran (12 at best)
Last year – 311 (99.0) 13 ran
Zwayyan 7/1 6-9-2 (97) Dr 4 by 1l from Breden 14/1 9-9-3 (98) Dr 2
Goring 10/1 7-9-4 (99) Dr 3 was 2.45l 8th
Pinnata 7/2 Co F 7-9-0 (95) Dr 5 was 3.45l 9th
Fox Power 4-9-8 (99) Dr 5 (103.0)
2 Feb Cl 2 Stks (118/) 8.5f AW Wolv 9/2 9-8 0.5l 2/7 off 99 –
chased leaders, went 2nd well over 2f out, switched right over 1fout, ridden to challenge and edged left briefly inside final furlong, led 100 yards out, hung right headed and not quicken towards finish
Was giving 3lbs to Serendipity when beaten 0.5 l here the pair over 2l clear of the rest of the field; close encounters prior to that mark his form.
Plus: course (W+); AW (W); distance (W): course (F); form run lto (33 days);
Minus:
Verdict: form run in stks but yet to win hcap so slight reservation as to chances.
Via Serendipity 6-9-10 (105) Dr 8
2 Feb Cl 2 Stks (118/) 8.5f AW Wolv 3/1 9-5 0.5l 1/7 off 105 -
held up in 4th place, closer in 3rd over 2f out, hung left and ridden over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, led towards finish
Got the better of Fox Power over C&D lto, but while the weights haven’t altered he ends up giving FP 2lbs today; have to think that FP’s favoured,
Plus: distance (W); AW (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (33 days); up 5lbs (Wt);
Minus:
Verdict: have to think the weights favour FP but will run his race.
Kasbaan 5-9-3 (98) Dr 4 (110.1)
19 Feb Cl 2 Hcap (280/93.9) 7f AW Newcs 9-2 10/1 4.5l 10/14 off 99 - 88.0
tracked leader, driven to challenge over 1f out, soon hung left and lost place
Dropped in distance lto after running at 10f and fund then going too fast; previously had smart for in 10f hcaps and had won twice over 8f in September.
Plus: class (W); AW (W); distance (W); recent run (17 days); up 1kb (wt); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: returns to right distance and not without a chance
With Red Bond a N/R Fox Power is likely to start a clear favourite to reverse the running here lto with Vis Serendipity. It’s a mite speculative, but I’ll put up Kasbaan to perhaps spoil his run. So it’s Kasbaan from Fox Power and Via Serendipity.
Wolverhampton 14.10 Cl 2 Hcap 156 (91.1) 6f AW – 10 Ran (8 at best)
Last year – 158 (96.8) 6f 10 ran
Desert Doctor 7/2F 4-8-8 (92) Dr 4 by 0.1l from Merhoob 11/2 7-9-2 (100) Dr 7
El Hombre 13/2 5-8-8 (92) Dr 9 was 1.1 l 4th
Embour 5-9-7 (95) Dr 2 (98.8)
21 Sept Cl 2 Hcap (1234/100.0) 6f gd Ayr 20/1 8-9 1.9 l 5/24 off 95 - 91.1
mid-division far side, ridden 1f out, stayed on to chase leaders inside final furlong, never nearer
Questions are does he act on the AW and is he fit; if the answer is yes to both he will go close based on his Ayr Gold Cup running.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); from run lto (168 days);
Minus: going (?); course (?); 168-days break; up 12 lbs (wt); up 1lb (OR);
Verdict: fitness for AW and fitness on return both a question.
Concierge 4-9-3 (91) Dr 7 (97.1)
24 Feb Cl 2 Hcap (118/92.2) 6f AW Wolv 13/8F 8-7 1.75 l 1/6 off 85 – 86.1
in rear, headway over 3f out, ridden over 1f out, led inside final furlong, kept on well
Won a Cl 2 hcap over C&D here with De Sousa for whom he’s 3/4; raised 6lbs for that but mightn’t be done just yet.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (12 days);
Minus: up 10lbs (wt); up 5lbs (OR);
Verdict: another win likely under De Sousa?
Desert Doctor 5-9-7 (95) Dr 6 (104.2)
A pair of Gulf runs the latest, the former a smart second following on from a good second here a month earlier for which he escapes the handicapper’s attn; just 3lbs higher than when taking this last year.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); recent outing (23 days); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: up 13lbs (wt);
Verdict: In good enough form to take this for the second year in a row
They’ve taken two out and it’s still trappy! I’ll take a blind shot on Embour though who looks to be a class above these. So I’ll go Embour from Concierge and Desert Doctor.
Wolverhampton 13.35 Cl 2 Hcap 511 (95.3) 8.5f AW – 13 Ran (12 at best)
Last year – 311 (99.0) 13 ran
Zwayyan 7/1 6-9-2 (97) Dr 4 by 1l from Breden 14/1 9-9-3 (98) Dr 2
Goring 10/1 7-9-4 (99) Dr 3 was 2.45l 8th
Pinnata 7/2 Co F 7-9-0 (95) Dr 5 was 3.45l 9th
Fox Power 4-9-8 (99) Dr 5 (103.0)
2 Feb Cl 2 Stks (118/) 8.5f AW Wolv 9/2 9-8 0.5l 2/7 off 99 –
chased leaders, went 2nd well over 2f out, switched right over 1fout, ridden to challenge and edged left briefly inside final furlong, led 100 yards out, hung right headed and not quicken towards finish
Was giving 3lbs to Serendipity when beaten 0.5 l here the pair over 2l clear of the rest of the field; close encounters prior to that mark his form.
Plus: course (W+); AW (W); distance (W): course (F); form run lto (33 days);
Minus:
Verdict: form run in stks but yet to win hcap so slight reservation as to chances.
Via Serendipity 6-9-10 (105) Dr 8
2 Feb Cl 2 Stks (118/) 8.5f AW Wolv 3/1 9-5 0.5l 1/7 off 105 -
held up in 4th place, closer in 3rd over 2f out, hung left and ridden over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, led towards finish
Got the better of Fox Power over C&D lto, but while the weights haven’t altered he ends up giving FP 2lbs today; have to think that FP’s favoured,
Plus: distance (W); AW (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (33 days); up 5lbs (Wt);
Minus:
Verdict: have to think the weights favour FP but will run his race.
Kasbaan 5-9-3 (98) Dr 4 (110.1)
19 Feb Cl 2 Hcap (280/93.9) 7f AW Newcs 9-2 10/1 4.5l 10/14 off 99 - 88.0
tracked leader, driven to challenge over 1f out, soon hung left and lost place
Dropped in distance lto after running at 10f and fund then going too fast; previously had smart for in 10f hcaps and had won twice over 8f in September.
Plus: class (W); AW (W); distance (W); recent run (17 days); up 1kb (wt); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: returns to right distance and not without a chance
With Red Bond a N/R Fox Power is likely to start a clear favourite to reverse the running here lto with Vis Serendipity. It’s a mite speculative, but I’ll put up Kasbaan to perhaps spoil his run. So it’s Kasbaan from Fox Power and Via Serendipity.
Wolverhampton 14.10 Cl 2 Hcap 156 (91.1) 6f AW – 10 Ran (8 at best)
Last year – 158 (96.8) 6f 10 ran
Desert Doctor 7/2F 4-8-8 (92) Dr 4 by 0.1l from Merhoob 11/2 7-9-2 (100) Dr 7
El Hombre 13/2 5-8-8 (92) Dr 9 was 1.1 l 4th
Embour 5-9-7 (95) Dr 2 (98.8)
21 Sept Cl 2 Hcap (1234/100.0) 6f gd Ayr 20/1 8-9 1.9 l 5/24 off 95 - 91.1
mid-division far side, ridden 1f out, stayed on to chase leaders inside final furlong, never nearer
Questions are does he act on the AW and is he fit; if the answer is yes to both he will go close based on his Ayr Gold Cup running.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); from run lto (168 days);
Minus: going (?); course (?); 168-days break; up 12 lbs (wt); up 1lb (OR);
Verdict: fitness for AW and fitness on return both a question.
Concierge 4-9-3 (91) Dr 7 (97.1)
24 Feb Cl 2 Hcap (118/92.2) 6f AW Wolv 13/8F 8-7 1.75 l 1/6 off 85 – 86.1
in rear, headway over 3f out, ridden over 1f out, led inside final furlong, kept on well
Won a Cl 2 hcap over C&D here with De Sousa for whom he’s 3/4; raised 6lbs for that but mightn’t be done just yet.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (12 days);
Minus: up 10lbs (wt); up 5lbs (OR);
Verdict: another win likely under De Sousa?
Desert Doctor 5-9-7 (95) Dr 6 (104.2)
A pair of Gulf runs the latest, the former a smart second following on from a good second here a month earlier for which he escapes the handicapper’s attn; just 3lbs higher than when taking this last year.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); recent outing (23 days); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: up 13lbs (wt);
Verdict: In good enough form to take this for the second year in a row
They’ve taken two out and it’s still trappy! I’ll take a blind shot on Embour though who looks to be a class above these. So I’ll go Embour from Concierge and Desert Doctor.
