Post by Old Timer on Dec 28, 2019 11:09:13 GMT
It’s been a good week so far, although I should have remembered the dictum yesterday that on hv ground the Welsh National is always won by horses carrying less than 11-0; still at least I had the right saver! However, with all the good racing packed into Thursday and Friday, they forgot to save any for today – at least in regard to decent handicaps. So the sensible thing to do is not be greedy and wait till something better comes along – a possible handicap chase at Haydock on Monday if the field holds up. In the meantime, seeing as how I had a look!
Newbury 13.50 Cl 2 Hcap Hurdle 113 (132.5) 20.5f sf – 12 Run
Last year – 113 (130.9) gd/sf – 8 ran
I’m A Game Changer 13/2 6-11-6 (138) by 0.02l from Knight In Dubai 16/1 5-11-3 (135)
A red-flag race I’m afraid with a field full of novices just making their way, some of whom have never even run in hcap company. I did have a preliminary study to try and find a shortlist, which includes Severano, One For Rosie and Colonial Dreams, Coeur De Lion having been dropped because of the jockey’s inexperience (0/1/3). However, I’m nowhere near brave enough to make a pick in this race, preferring to wait till next week.
Newbury 14.25 Cl 3 Hcap Chase 116 (121.1) 26f sf – 10 Run
Last year – 120 (128.2) gd/sf – 10 ran
Caroles Destrier 12/1 10-11-12 (135) by 0.75l from Ballydine 11/2 8-11-10 (133)
Polydora 7-11-10 (133) (136.9)
Showed early promise over fences last season winning a Cl 3 NHC at Newcastle on his second attempt at the larger obstacles; didn’t fare as well thereafter as while finishing in the top half of the field he was generally well beaten, albeit in better class than this; possibly not tuned for his return on hv at Ayr in November and a major blunder saw for his chances and was perhaps was fortunate to finish a distant runner-up; however, a falling mark sees him only 2lbs above his Newcastle winning level.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); recent outing (45 days); down 2lbs (OR); down 2lbs (wt);
Minus: course;
Verdict: promise early last season, but needs to recover that form to make a mark here and not the strongest contender.
Moving In Style 8-10-9 (118) (133.6)
23 Nov Cl 3 HCh (165/126.4) 28.5f gd/sf Hayd 6/1 10-11 7l 2/9 off 118 – 114.6
led or disputed lead virtually throughout, hit 6th, blundered 5 out, soon pushed along, ridden after 3 out, kept on until no extra and held between last 2
Twice a winner over fences last season when with Mulholland; possibly needed the race at Exeter on debut for new yard, but better effort at Haydock lto, although again didn’t jump entirely smoothly; runs off the same mark today, but softer ground may not necessarily play to his strengths, although drop in trip should suit.
Plus: class (W); going (Wh); distance (W); form run lto (35 days); down 2lbs (wt); drop in trip;
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: yet to get off the mark for his new yard, but not without chances and a possible contender.
Copperhead 5-11-11 (134) (119.2+)
05 Dec Cl 3 HCh (162/117.3) 25f gd Winc 6/1 11-12 4l 1/15 off 125 – 116.2
mid-division, hampered 14th, headway 5 out, chased leaders next, led before 2 out, stayed on strongly
Promising novice hurdler last season winning both his HHd starts at the start of the year; returned in what has turned out to be a tough Cl 3 beginners’ chase at Chepstow in October, matching strides with the leaders until condition told; while he was a well-beaten 5th, there was no disgrace as both winner Truckers Lodge and 4th Prime Venture ran well in yesterday’s Welsh National; subsequently was an impressive winner at this level in a Cl 3 at Wincanton at the start of the month; has been raised 9lbs for that, but carries 1lb less physical weight; has won on this ground before and there should be much improvement to come.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (23 days); down 1lb (wt);
Minus: course (?); up 9lbs (OR);
Verdict: improving sort who should have much more to give and a strong contender.
Cobolobo 7-11-6 (129) (118.3)
04 Dec Cl 4 HCh (65/114.4) 25.5f sf Hayd 9/4 F 11-12 5l 1/7 off 122 – 110.3
held up, closed 3rd, led 4 out, clear last, stayed on well
Winner of a pair of NHd, was only just denied on chase debut at FFos Las in November last year; jumping error knocked him out of contention on his next start, and resulted in him UR on his final start at Exeter in February; jumping errors persisted on his return in an amateur riders HCh at Cheltenham on his return although reported breathing problems also contributed to his being PU; dropped to Cl 4, he jumped soundly in winning at Haydock at the start of the month under today’s rider; raised 7lbs for that and back up in class, but should be able to show further improvement with the win under his belt.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (24 days); down 6lbs (wt);
Minus: course (?); up 7lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: promising novice who can improve on his Haydock running providing he puts in a clear round, a contender.
Not the greatest of chases, but about the best I can find today, a mixture of novices looking to make their way and older horses looking to find their way back. One of those is Strong Pursuit who won here on his chase debut over two years ago. He’s run twice since then, earlier this year and has not been seen since being PU here towards the end of March – not for me, I’m afraid. Indy Five is another in the same vein and having been PU in both his starts this season he’s another with a lot to prove. Antony is another thrown in on old form, but that was around 18 months ago and having been PU over 15.5f at Sandown at the start of the month he’s another for the chop. Goodnight Charlie doesn’t look the same mare that won at Warwick and Cheltenham in the spring, but 8lbs higher than at Cheltenham could account for that.
The reason I haven’t mentioned Boughtbeforelunch is that I believe he needs better ground, while I don’t see Forgot To Ask being up for this on what’s been shown to date. So that leaves me with a quartet from which I think Copperhead looks the most likely and with questions about Polydora’s current form, I’m expecting Moving In Style and Cobolobo to follow him home.
Newbury 13.50 Cl 2 Hcap Hurdle 113 (132.5) 20.5f sf – 12 Run
Last year – 113 (130.9) gd/sf – 8 ran
I’m A Game Changer 13/2 6-11-6 (138) by 0.02l from Knight In Dubai 16/1 5-11-3 (135)
A red-flag race I’m afraid with a field full of novices just making their way, some of whom have never even run in hcap company. I did have a preliminary study to try and find a shortlist, which includes Severano, One For Rosie and Colonial Dreams, Coeur De Lion having been dropped because of the jockey’s inexperience (0/1/3). However, I’m nowhere near brave enough to make a pick in this race, preferring to wait till next week.
Newbury 14.25 Cl 3 Hcap Chase 116 (121.1) 26f sf – 10 Run
Last year – 120 (128.2) gd/sf – 10 ran
Caroles Destrier 12/1 10-11-12 (135) by 0.75l from Ballydine 11/2 8-11-10 (133)
Polydora 7-11-10 (133) (136.9)
Showed early promise over fences last season winning a Cl 3 NHC at Newcastle on his second attempt at the larger obstacles; didn’t fare as well thereafter as while finishing in the top half of the field he was generally well beaten, albeit in better class than this; possibly not tuned for his return on hv at Ayr in November and a major blunder saw for his chances and was perhaps was fortunate to finish a distant runner-up; however, a falling mark sees him only 2lbs above his Newcastle winning level.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); recent outing (45 days); down 2lbs (OR); down 2lbs (wt);
Minus: course;
Verdict: promise early last season, but needs to recover that form to make a mark here and not the strongest contender.
Moving In Style 8-10-9 (118) (133.6)
23 Nov Cl 3 HCh (165/126.4) 28.5f gd/sf Hayd 6/1 10-11 7l 2/9 off 118 – 114.6
led or disputed lead virtually throughout, hit 6th, blundered 5 out, soon pushed along, ridden after 3 out, kept on until no extra and held between last 2
Twice a winner over fences last season when with Mulholland; possibly needed the race at Exeter on debut for new yard, but better effort at Haydock lto, although again didn’t jump entirely smoothly; runs off the same mark today, but softer ground may not necessarily play to his strengths, although drop in trip should suit.
Plus: class (W); going (Wh); distance (W); form run lto (35 days); down 2lbs (wt); drop in trip;
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: yet to get off the mark for his new yard, but not without chances and a possible contender.
Copperhead 5-11-11 (134) (119.2+)
05 Dec Cl 3 HCh (162/117.3) 25f gd Winc 6/1 11-12 4l 1/15 off 125 – 116.2
mid-division, hampered 14th, headway 5 out, chased leaders next, led before 2 out, stayed on strongly
Promising novice hurdler last season winning both his HHd starts at the start of the year; returned in what has turned out to be a tough Cl 3 beginners’ chase at Chepstow in October, matching strides with the leaders until condition told; while he was a well-beaten 5th, there was no disgrace as both winner Truckers Lodge and 4th Prime Venture ran well in yesterday’s Welsh National; subsequently was an impressive winner at this level in a Cl 3 at Wincanton at the start of the month; has been raised 9lbs for that, but carries 1lb less physical weight; has won on this ground before and there should be much improvement to come.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (23 days); down 1lb (wt);
Minus: course (?); up 9lbs (OR);
Verdict: improving sort who should have much more to give and a strong contender.
Cobolobo 7-11-6 (129) (118.3)
04 Dec Cl 4 HCh (65/114.4) 25.5f sf Hayd 9/4 F 11-12 5l 1/7 off 122 – 110.3
held up, closed 3rd, led 4 out, clear last, stayed on well
Winner of a pair of NHd, was only just denied on chase debut at FFos Las in November last year; jumping error knocked him out of contention on his next start, and resulted in him UR on his final start at Exeter in February; jumping errors persisted on his return in an amateur riders HCh at Cheltenham on his return although reported breathing problems also contributed to his being PU; dropped to Cl 4, he jumped soundly in winning at Haydock at the start of the month under today’s rider; raised 7lbs for that and back up in class, but should be able to show further improvement with the win under his belt.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (24 days); down 6lbs (wt);
Minus: course (?); up 7lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: promising novice who can improve on his Haydock running providing he puts in a clear round, a contender.
Not the greatest of chases, but about the best I can find today, a mixture of novices looking to make their way and older horses looking to find their way back. One of those is Strong Pursuit who won here on his chase debut over two years ago. He’s run twice since then, earlier this year and has not been seen since being PU here towards the end of March – not for me, I’m afraid. Indy Five is another in the same vein and having been PU in both his starts this season he’s another with a lot to prove. Antony is another thrown in on old form, but that was around 18 months ago and having been PU over 15.5f at Sandown at the start of the month he’s another for the chop. Goodnight Charlie doesn’t look the same mare that won at Warwick and Cheltenham in the spring, but 8lbs higher than at Cheltenham could account for that.
The reason I haven’t mentioned Boughtbeforelunch is that I believe he needs better ground, while I don’t see Forgot To Ask being up for this on what’s been shown to date. So that leaves me with a quartet from which I think Copperhead looks the most likely and with questions about Polydora’s current form, I’m expecting Moving In Style and Cobolobo to follow him home.
