Post by Old Timer on Dec 21, 2019 12:03:33 GMT
Didn’t do too well last Saturday, and today’s heavy ground is likely to cause problems again, that is if Ascot is actually on. So best wishes for the holiday season and likely catch you Boxing Day!
Haydock 14.40 Cl 2 Hcap Chase 313 (136.9) 25.5f hv – 9 Run
Last year – 313 (137.1) hv – 11 ran
Daklondike 6/1 6-11-9 (139) by 1l from Ballyarthur 10/1 8-11-2 (132)
Vintage Clouds 9-11-12 (145) (155.3)
C&D winner in November last year off 143 and was runner-up in the Ultima at Cheltenham in March off 144; however, has shown little since, although that does include two runs over the National fences, which he patently doesn’t like; question about how he’s come out of the Becher there a fortnight ago when he was PU.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (W); recent outing (14 days); down in class;
Minus: up 14lbs (wt);
Verdict: fine efforts in major hcaps on occasions, but reservations due to how he has come out of his Becher outing, and not the strongest of contenders perhaps.
Daklondike 7-11-12 (145) (141.0)
30 Nov Gr 3 HCh (1424/147.8) 26f gd/sf Newb 25/1 10-13 25l 11/24 off 147
held up and always towards rear, never on terms
Winner of last year’s renewal off a 6lbs lower mark, although UR in the Peter marsh here in January and then refused to race in the Eider at Newcastle won by Crosspark (-13); given a long break before returning over hurdles at Newbury in early November where he finished runner-up off his lower hurdle mark of 139; then failed to impress when finishing midfield in the Ladbroke there at month end; could be fancied on last season’s effort, but got to question his love for the game at present; interesting Noonan rides him for the first time since 2016.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); recent outing (21 days); down in class; down 2lbs (OR);
Minus: up 13lbs (wt); no chase form since last year’s renewal;
Verdict: capable, but unsure of mindset over fences and 6lbs higher this year; not the strongest contender.
The Hollow Ginge 6-11-8 (141) (135.5)
23 Nov Cl 2 Grad Ch (316/) 21.5f gd/sf Hayd 7/2 10-11 14.5l 3/5 off 142
prominent, pressed leader from 4th, led 11th, shaken up turning in, headed 4 out, ridden after next, every chance 2 out, no extra and well held in 3rd before last
27 Oct Cl 3 NHCh (101/129.6) 25f sf Aint 4/1 11-10 0.1l 2/9 off 137 – 129.5
mid-division, headway chasing leaders before 11th, went 2nd next, switched left and strong challenge run-in, just failed
Twice a winner over hurdles, including here, on hv ground, won chase debut over 23f on sf at Worcester in September; followed up by only just failing over 25f at Aintree the following month on his hcap debut, and obviously found the trip a little short in a graduation chase here last month; obviously appreciates demanding conditions and should appreciate today’s step back up in trip especially reverting to handicapping again.
Plus: going (W); distance (F); course (Wh); recent outing (28 days); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: class; up 11lbs (wt);
Verdict: improving young chaser who could well be a contender in conditions that should suit.
Orchardstown Cross 8-10-13 (132) (125.9)
22 Nov Cl 3 HCh (165/135.3) 24f sf Ascot 5/1 11-4 35l 10/13 off 132 –
always towards rear
05 Nov Cl 3 HCh (78/125.0) 24f sf Exe 5/1 Jt F 11-5 2l 1/13 off 123 – 110.9
held up in rear, mistakes 9th and 10th, headway after 5 out, led before 3 out, hard driven , stayed on well
Promising first season over fences and improved again to complete his hat-trick at Exeter on his return in early November under today’s rider; change of rider for Ascot and he maybe misjudged the race as he never made a forward move in a race where the principals were always to the fore; back to regular rider today, who claims a useful 3lbs, and likely to improve on only sixth chase start, plus has won on sf.
Plus: distance; recent outing; down 8lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); going (?); course (?); up in class;
Verdict: improving sort who may find the improvement necessary, and a contender.
Not a lot of positive trends in this other than the last dozen renewals have gone to 6 to 8yos who have had a run within the past 35 days, plus there seems a growing tendency for winners to carry at least 11-0. Of those I’ve omitted, I have a feeling that while Lord Du Mesnil will relish the conditions he has to prove he can handle the rise in class as well as his 5lbs rise in the weights. Both Crosspark and Top Wood are older than normal winners, plus look to be better after the turn of the year.
That leaves me with a quartet to cut down to size and the first one to go is Vintage Clouds who looks in need of rekindling a love for the game after another unhappy experience over the National fences – they can sour some horses. Of the remaining trio, I am a little put off by Daklondike’s efforts since, although he would have a chance on last year’s form. However, I’m going to follow what he was last year, an unexposed staying chaser and this time go for The Hollow Ginge from Orchardstown Cross with Daklondike perhaps claiming the minor placing. Now watch Vinatge Clouds leave me with egg on my face!!
Ascot 15.00 List Hcap Chase 570 (148.3) 24f hv – 10 Run
Last year – 570 (144.7) sf – 12 ran
Valtor 33/1 9-11-3 (148) by 8l from Jammin Masters 7/1 7-10-5 (136)
With reappraisals at Ascot, this rather got lost in the shuffle, but my initial shortlist included Give Me A Copper, Mister Malarkey, Kildisart and Crievehill, but sadly I won’t have time to look any further!
Ascot 15.35 Gr 3 Hcap Hurdle 854 (138.9) 16f hv – 16 Run (14 at best)
Last year – 854 (134.7) sf – 24 ran
Mohaayed 16/1 6-11-10 (145) by 2.25l from Lisp 13/2 4-11-5 (140)
French Crusader 6-11-1 (139) (138.1) (151.1) N/R
30 Nov List HHd (285/134.4) 16.5f gd/sf Newb 8/1 11-4 6l 2/11 off 135 – 125.1
chased leaders, led before 2 out, headed last, stayed on same pace run-in, no chance with winner
Lightly-raced sort who was making his first start in over a year when runner-up to Epatante at Newbury last month and thus should conform running there with Crooks Peak who was 10l adrift in 4th; has won on gd/sf, but heavy a whole new ballgame!
Plus: distance (W); form run lto (21 days); down 3lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); going (?); course (?); up 4lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: showed promise at Newbury and a contender if coming on from that.
Umbrigado 5-11-4 (142) (144.2)
23 Nov Gr 3 HHd (570/135.1) 24.5f gd/sf Hayd 7/1 11-7 6.5l 5/17 off 142 – 134.2
mid-division, headway 7th, tracked leaders next, one pace when switched right before 2 out, soon ridden, kept on, no impression
Twice a winner over hurdles last term over 16f and 18.5f, but didn’t appear to stay 20f in a Gr 1 at Aintree in April; could make similar comments about his return at Haydock last month, although ran well for a long way and wasn’t disgraced; whether he can drop
back 8f in trip is another matter though.
Plus: class (F); distance (W); form run lto (28 days); down 3lbs (wt);
Minus: going (?); course (I?);
Verdict: this will be a slog, but I’m not sure this drop back in trip will suit, and thus a contender with questions.
Quoi De Neuf 5-10-9 (133) (143.8)
17 Nov Gr 3 HHd (563/136.3) 16.5f sf Chelt 7/1 10-6 1.75l 4/14 off 129 – 124.8
held up in touch on inside, headway 2 out, led narrowly turning in, ridden and headed last, kept on, held towards finish
A couple of decent efforts in HHd this term, the latest in the Greatwood at Cheltenham last month behind Harombe (N/R here) and 2.35l back of Monsieur Lecoq (+13) with Countister (+12) 12.5l back in 7th; meets ML on 4lbs better terms today and must be in with a chance of reversing that running if handling the ground.
Plus: class (F); distance (F); form run lto (34 days);
Minus: going; course (?); up 4lbs (OR); up 3lbs (wt);
Verdict: looks to be improving sort and a contender if handling the ground.
Crooks Peak 6-10-9 (133) (141.6)
30 Nov List HHd (285/134.4) 16.5f gd/sf Newb 6/1 11-3 16l 4/11 off 134 – 115.0
raced keenly, held up in mid-division, plugged on in modest 4th run-in
Won a Cl 3 HHd at Newbury in March, but has never quite stepped up in higher class since, latest effort being when 4th to Epatante at Newbury last month with French Crusader (+1) 10l ahead in 2nd; as he’d already had a run, a reversal in form looks doubtful.
Plus: distance (W); recent outing (21 days); down 1lb (OR); down 8lbs (wt);
Minus: class; going (?); course (?); up in class;
Verdict: has to prove ability at this level and not a strong contender.
Countister 7-10-13 (137) (147.4)
17 Nov Gr 3 HHd (563/136.3) 16.5f sf Chelt 16/1 11-4 14.25l 7/14 off 141 – 125.4
mid-division, chased leaders 2 out, driven and one pace before last, never on terms
Lightly-raced mare but produced a career best when 3rd in the County Hurdle at the Festival, but wasn’t in the same vein of form at Fairyhouse the following month; returned in the Greatwood at Cheltenham last month, but obviously needed the race behind Harombe (a N/R here); should strip fitter today.
Plus: class (F); distance (W); recent outing (3 days); down 4lbs (OR); down 5lbs (wt);
Minus: going (?); course (?);
Verdict: will need to bounce back from Cheltenham effort, but good chance on County Hurdle form of taking to Ascot.
Another race where past tends aren’t a lot of help save for the odd little things like claimer-ridden horses don’t do well, nor do horses coming from fields of less than 10 runners last time out. Looking at horses that might have made the list but didn’t, I think we can count Monsieur Out on a number of counts, as even with his rider’s claim (!), he’s still carrying a burden in these conditions. Tamaroc Du Mathan with a win in France and just one very promising NHd start in UK doubtless holds promise, but winning this, I don’t think so! C&D winner Not So Sleepy should enjoy the ground, but won’t find it easy to make it all from this field. Nor do I expect last year’s winner Mohaayed to spring another shock.
So with my initial fancy Harambe a non-runner and now joined by my second choice French Crusader, I’ll make Crooks Peak the first cut from my curtailed list, followed by Pipe’s Umbrigado on worries about the trip. With Henderson withdrawing French Crusader, it looks as if he expects Countister to reverse Greatwood running with Quoi De Neuf. So as a very much rushed re-evaluation, I’ll go with Countister from Quoi De Neuf and perhaps No So Sleepy.
Haydock 14.40 Cl 2 Hcap Chase 313 (136.9) 25.5f hv – 9 Run
Last year – 313 (137.1) hv – 11 ran
Daklondike 6/1 6-11-9 (139) by 1l from Ballyarthur 10/1 8-11-2 (132)
Vintage Clouds 9-11-12 (145) (155.3)
C&D winner in November last year off 143 and was runner-up in the Ultima at Cheltenham in March off 144; however, has shown little since, although that does include two runs over the National fences, which he patently doesn’t like; question about how he’s come out of the Becher there a fortnight ago when he was PU.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (W); recent outing (14 days); down in class;
Minus: up 14lbs (wt);
Verdict: fine efforts in major hcaps on occasions, but reservations due to how he has come out of his Becher outing, and not the strongest of contenders perhaps.
Daklondike 7-11-12 (145) (141.0)
30 Nov Gr 3 HCh (1424/147.8) 26f gd/sf Newb 25/1 10-13 25l 11/24 off 147
held up and always towards rear, never on terms
Winner of last year’s renewal off a 6lbs lower mark, although UR in the Peter marsh here in January and then refused to race in the Eider at Newcastle won by Crosspark (-13); given a long break before returning over hurdles at Newbury in early November where he finished runner-up off his lower hurdle mark of 139; then failed to impress when finishing midfield in the Ladbroke there at month end; could be fancied on last season’s effort, but got to question his love for the game at present; interesting Noonan rides him for the first time since 2016.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); recent outing (21 days); down in class; down 2lbs (OR);
Minus: up 13lbs (wt); no chase form since last year’s renewal;
Verdict: capable, but unsure of mindset over fences and 6lbs higher this year; not the strongest contender.
The Hollow Ginge 6-11-8 (141) (135.5)
23 Nov Cl 2 Grad Ch (316/) 21.5f gd/sf Hayd 7/2 10-11 14.5l 3/5 off 142
prominent, pressed leader from 4th, led 11th, shaken up turning in, headed 4 out, ridden after next, every chance 2 out, no extra and well held in 3rd before last
27 Oct Cl 3 NHCh (101/129.6) 25f sf Aint 4/1 11-10 0.1l 2/9 off 137 – 129.5
mid-division, headway chasing leaders before 11th, went 2nd next, switched left and strong challenge run-in, just failed
Twice a winner over hurdles, including here, on hv ground, won chase debut over 23f on sf at Worcester in September; followed up by only just failing over 25f at Aintree the following month on his hcap debut, and obviously found the trip a little short in a graduation chase here last month; obviously appreciates demanding conditions and should appreciate today’s step back up in trip especially reverting to handicapping again.
Plus: going (W); distance (F); course (Wh); recent outing (28 days); down 1lb (OR);
Minus: class; up 11lbs (wt);
Verdict: improving young chaser who could well be a contender in conditions that should suit.
Orchardstown Cross 8-10-13 (132) (125.9)
22 Nov Cl 3 HCh (165/135.3) 24f sf Ascot 5/1 11-4 35l 10/13 off 132 –
always towards rear
05 Nov Cl 3 HCh (78/125.0) 24f sf Exe 5/1 Jt F 11-5 2l 1/13 off 123 – 110.9
held up in rear, mistakes 9th and 10th, headway after 5 out, led before 3 out, hard driven , stayed on well
Promising first season over fences and improved again to complete his hat-trick at Exeter on his return in early November under today’s rider; change of rider for Ascot and he maybe misjudged the race as he never made a forward move in a race where the principals were always to the fore; back to regular rider today, who claims a useful 3lbs, and likely to improve on only sixth chase start, plus has won on sf.
Plus: distance; recent outing; down 8lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); going (?); course (?); up in class;
Verdict: improving sort who may find the improvement necessary, and a contender.
Not a lot of positive trends in this other than the last dozen renewals have gone to 6 to 8yos who have had a run within the past 35 days, plus there seems a growing tendency for winners to carry at least 11-0. Of those I’ve omitted, I have a feeling that while Lord Du Mesnil will relish the conditions he has to prove he can handle the rise in class as well as his 5lbs rise in the weights. Both Crosspark and Top Wood are older than normal winners, plus look to be better after the turn of the year.
That leaves me with a quartet to cut down to size and the first one to go is Vintage Clouds who looks in need of rekindling a love for the game after another unhappy experience over the National fences – they can sour some horses. Of the remaining trio, I am a little put off by Daklondike’s efforts since, although he would have a chance on last year’s form. However, I’m going to follow what he was last year, an unexposed staying chaser and this time go for The Hollow Ginge from Orchardstown Cross with Daklondike perhaps claiming the minor placing. Now watch Vinatge Clouds leave me with egg on my face!!
Ascot 15.00 List Hcap Chase 570 (148.3) 24f hv – 10 Run
Last year – 570 (144.7) sf – 12 ran
Valtor 33/1 9-11-3 (148) by 8l from Jammin Masters 7/1 7-10-5 (136)
With reappraisals at Ascot, this rather got lost in the shuffle, but my initial shortlist included Give Me A Copper, Mister Malarkey, Kildisart and Crievehill, but sadly I won’t have time to look any further!
Ascot 15.35 Gr 3 Hcap Hurdle 854 (138.9) 16f hv – 16 Run (14 at best)
Last year – 854 (134.7) sf – 24 ran
Mohaayed 16/1 6-11-10 (145) by 2.25l from Lisp 13/2 4-11-5 (140)
French Crusader 6-11-1 (139) (138.1) (151.1) N/R
30 Nov List HHd (285/134.4) 16.5f gd/sf Newb 8/1 11-4 6l 2/11 off 135 – 125.1
chased leaders, led before 2 out, headed last, stayed on same pace run-in, no chance with winner
Lightly-raced sort who was making his first start in over a year when runner-up to Epatante at Newbury last month and thus should conform running there with Crooks Peak who was 10l adrift in 4th; has won on gd/sf, but heavy a whole new ballgame!
Plus: distance (W); form run lto (21 days); down 3lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); going (?); course (?); up 4lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: showed promise at Newbury and a contender if coming on from that.
Umbrigado 5-11-4 (142) (144.2)
23 Nov Gr 3 HHd (570/135.1) 24.5f gd/sf Hayd 7/1 11-7 6.5l 5/17 off 142 – 134.2
mid-division, headway 7th, tracked leaders next, one pace when switched right before 2 out, soon ridden, kept on, no impression
Twice a winner over hurdles last term over 16f and 18.5f, but didn’t appear to stay 20f in a Gr 1 at Aintree in April; could make similar comments about his return at Haydock last month, although ran well for a long way and wasn’t disgraced; whether he can drop
back 8f in trip is another matter though.
Plus: class (F); distance (W); form run lto (28 days); down 3lbs (wt);
Minus: going (?); course (I?);
Verdict: this will be a slog, but I’m not sure this drop back in trip will suit, and thus a contender with questions.
Quoi De Neuf 5-10-9 (133) (143.8)
17 Nov Gr 3 HHd (563/136.3) 16.5f sf Chelt 7/1 10-6 1.75l 4/14 off 129 – 124.8
held up in touch on inside, headway 2 out, led narrowly turning in, ridden and headed last, kept on, held towards finish
A couple of decent efforts in HHd this term, the latest in the Greatwood at Cheltenham last month behind Harombe (N/R here) and 2.35l back of Monsieur Lecoq (+13) with Countister (+12) 12.5l back in 7th; meets ML on 4lbs better terms today and must be in with a chance of reversing that running if handling the ground.
Plus: class (F); distance (F); form run lto (34 days);
Minus: going; course (?); up 4lbs (OR); up 3lbs (wt);
Verdict: looks to be improving sort and a contender if handling the ground.
Crooks Peak 6-10-9 (133) (141.6)
30 Nov List HHd (285/134.4) 16.5f gd/sf Newb 6/1 11-3 16l 4/11 off 134 – 115.0
raced keenly, held up in mid-division, plugged on in modest 4th run-in
Won a Cl 3 HHd at Newbury in March, but has never quite stepped up in higher class since, latest effort being when 4th to Epatante at Newbury last month with French Crusader (+1) 10l ahead in 2nd; as he’d already had a run, a reversal in form looks doubtful.
Plus: distance (W); recent outing (21 days); down 1lb (OR); down 8lbs (wt);
Minus: class; going (?); course (?); up in class;
Verdict: has to prove ability at this level and not a strong contender.
Countister 7-10-13 (137) (147.4)
17 Nov Gr 3 HHd (563/136.3) 16.5f sf Chelt 16/1 11-4 14.25l 7/14 off 141 – 125.4
mid-division, chased leaders 2 out, driven and one pace before last, never on terms
Lightly-raced mare but produced a career best when 3rd in the County Hurdle at the Festival, but wasn’t in the same vein of form at Fairyhouse the following month; returned in the Greatwood at Cheltenham last month, but obviously needed the race behind Harombe (a N/R here); should strip fitter today.
Plus: class (F); distance (W); recent outing (3 days); down 4lbs (OR); down 5lbs (wt);
Minus: going (?); course (?);
Verdict: will need to bounce back from Cheltenham effort, but good chance on County Hurdle form of taking to Ascot.
Another race where past tends aren’t a lot of help save for the odd little things like claimer-ridden horses don’t do well, nor do horses coming from fields of less than 10 runners last time out. Looking at horses that might have made the list but didn’t, I think we can count Monsieur Out on a number of counts, as even with his rider’s claim (!), he’s still carrying a burden in these conditions. Tamaroc Du Mathan with a win in France and just one very promising NHd start in UK doubtless holds promise, but winning this, I don’t think so! C&D winner Not So Sleepy should enjoy the ground, but won’t find it easy to make it all from this field. Nor do I expect last year’s winner Mohaayed to spring another shock.
So with my initial fancy Harambe a non-runner and now joined by my second choice French Crusader, I’ll make Crooks Peak the first cut from my curtailed list, followed by Pipe’s Umbrigado on worries about the trip. With Henderson withdrawing French Crusader, it looks as if he expects Countister to reverse Greatwood running with Quoi De Neuf. So as a very much rushed re-evaluation, I’ll go with Countister from Quoi De Neuf and perhaps No So Sleepy.
