Post by Old Timer on Dec 14, 2019 11:13:06 GMT
Last Saturday worked out well enough, although finding the winner of the Grand Sefton still remains a mystery to me. Sadly, didn’t have time to post yesterday, clearing the decks for the holidays. Actually, today’s racing looks less attractive, so I’ve just stayed with the Caspian Caviar and not ‘roed’ in elsewhere.
Cheltenham 13.20 Cl 2 Hcap Chase 188 (142.0) 16.5f gd/sf – 8 Run
Last year – 187 (147.0) gd – 5 ran
Ozzie The Oscar 11/4 7-11-12 (153) by 3.5l from Bun Doran 5/4 F 7-11-7 (148)
Theinval 8/1 8-11-9 (150) was 28.5l 3rd
Not worth any further study I’m afraid as it seems likely to go to the 13/8 favourite Destrier from perhaps Ballywood, and those are not my kind of prices,
Cheltenham 13.55 Gr 3 Hcap Chase 732 (144.0) 20.5f sf – 16 Run (14 at best)
Last year – 740 (144.7) gd – 12 ran
Frodon 7/1 6-11-12 (164) by 1.25l from Ceepage 12/1 6-10-5 (143)
Clondaw Castle 7-11-1 (144) (151.8)
02 Nov Cl 2 HCh (341/141.2) 17f gd/sf Asc 4/1 F 11-6 0.5l 2/12 off 144 – 140.8
held up in touch, lost place 9th, pushed along 4 out, rallied after 3 out, ridden and every chance flat, ran on
Won a pair of small field novice events after the turn of the year, but limitations shown when fading to 4/12 in the Arkle at the Festival and then a well-beaten 4/7 in the Maghull Novices at Aintree; made favourite for his return at Ascot last month, but possibly in need of the race and despite rallying 3 out could not quite get to the winner; rise in both trip and class to handle today, but should have further improvement to show on only 8th chase start.
Plus: class (F?); going (W); course (F?); form run lto (42 days); down 5lbs (wt);
Minus: distance (?); up in class; up in distance;
Verdict: potential to improve and a possible contender if staying the trip.
Brelan D’As 8-11-0 (143) (150.7)
16 Nov Gr 3 HCh (900/142.9) 20f sf Chelt 20/1 10-12 0.25l 2/17 off 138 – 136.7
held up mid-division, headway 3 out (usual 4 out), every chance when left 2nd 2 out, soon ridden, kept on towards finish, not quite reach winner
Just the 2 NCh wins to his name but has shown his liking for the course by finishing 3rd in the Grand Annual here back in March and then no quite getting to the winner in the BetVictor Gold Cup last month with Warthog (-6) 8l back in 3rd; has been raised 5lbs for that, but should still have more to come at around this distance and has won on gd and hv.
Plus: class (F); going (F)l distance (F); course (F); form run lto (28 days);
Minus: up 5lbs (OR); up 2lbs (wt);
Verdict: unexposed at this trip and thus a potential contender for yard that has won 5 of the last 10 renewals.
Ceepage 7-11-12 (155) (144.8)
09 Nov Cl 2 HCh (495/140.9) 20f sf Aint 4/1 Co F 11-12 1.75l 2/10 off 147 – 142.6
prominent, led 8th, headed 12th, every chance 2 out, held by winner last, kept on
Runner-up to Frodon in last year’s renewal off 143 and then not seen until finishing runner-up to Riders Onthe Storm (-7) off 147 at Aintree last month; with ROS inadvertently withdrawn, he has a chance to go one better this year; however, is 8lbs higher than at Aintree and 12lbs above last year’s mark.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (35 days);
Minus: up 8lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: proven over C&D, but carries 21lbs more actual weight than when runner-up 12 months ago, so maybe not the strongest contender for the win.
Good Man Pat 6-10-7 (136) (143.7)
22 Nov Cl 3 HCh (165/135.3) 24f sf Ascot 7/1 11-9 11.25l 4/13 off 137 – 121.3
in touch, ridden and headway 3 out, kept on same pace
Winning hurdler who won a NHCh at Plumpton in February and while he was PU in the Close Bros NHCh at the Festival, bounced back to finish a respectable 5/11 over 20f at Sandown in April; upped to 24f on his return at Ascot last month and probably needed the race; likely to appreciate the drop back in trip today and not without a chance.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); form run lto (22 days); down 1lb (OR); down 16lbs (wt); back in trip;
Minus: class (?); course; up 2 classes;
Verdict: as a 6yo with just 6 chase starts, has scope for improvement and a possible contender.
Secret Investor 7-11-7 (150)
02 Nov Gr 2 Chase (295/) 19.5f sf DRoy 5/1 11-6 14l 2/4 off 150 -
disputed lead, slight mistake 5th, led 9th, mistake next, strongly pressed when slight mistake 3 out, soon ridden, headed 2 out, no impression on winner when mistake at last, kept on one pace inside final furlong
Grade 2 winner over hurdles and matched that feat over fences at Ayr in April; jumping obviously not up to par when runner-up to Real Steel on his return at Down Royal last month, but by no means embarrassed; likely will be seen in a better light for his HCh and Cheltenham debut today; however, with no handicap form to work on, difficult to know where to place him.
Plus: class (W+); going (F); distance (W); recent outing (42 days); down in class;
Minus: course (?); up- 1lb (wt);
Verdict: has to be considered a contender, but hard to position.
Plenty of trends to consider here, not least that of the 61 9yo+ to run in the last 18 renewals, only 3 have made the frame, let alone win – bye, bye Robin Des Foret and Knocknanuss (for other reasons too!) Meanwhile, only a single winner in 18 years has broken these trends: last run within 40 days; 4-9 chase starts in last 12 months; not fallen more than once over fences; 1 – 6 starts in Class 1 chase; Cheltenham form is always important and 12 winners had previously run at Cheltenham, in fact, 8 of the last 12 came from Cheltenham last time out. Oh!, there is another one worth noting – just one winning favourite, although only one winner has started at longer than 16/1.
Of those towards the front of the betting that have been omitted, Not That Fuisse has had just 3 NCh starts, none above Cl 2, plus is yet to win. Compare that to Secret Investor who also hasn’t a rating, but has won in Grade 2! Benatar is another that’s being backed, but while he won his first 3 NCh 2 years ago, he showed little last term and hasn’t raced since January, so not for me.
So looking at my shortlist, despite the money for it, I’m not sure that Good Man Pat has strong enough credentials to claim today’s win as he’ll be racing at this level for the first time. My worries with Ceepage, meanwhile, are all to do with the massive jump in the weights he’s made since his fine effort last year. Having taken 5 of the last 10 renewals, you can’t ignore Nicholls pair and while I’m prepared to be wrong with Secret Investor, I do feel that Brelan D’As looks the more credible contender coming from the BetVictor here (a good trial race); I’m also wary of Warthog who was just behind him there. That leaves me with Clondaw Castle to fit in, as he does fail a few of the criteria, including this being his first try at the trip. So in the hopes I’ve got the right one of Nicholls, I’m going for Brelan D’As from Clondaw Castle with Ceepage, Secret Investor and perhaps Warthog scrapping it out for the minor places.
Cheltenham 13.20 Cl 2 Hcap Chase 188 (142.0) 16.5f gd/sf – 8 Run
Last year – 187 (147.0) gd – 5 ran
Ozzie The Oscar 11/4 7-11-12 (153) by 3.5l from Bun Doran 5/4 F 7-11-7 (148)
Theinval 8/1 8-11-9 (150) was 28.5l 3rd
Not worth any further study I’m afraid as it seems likely to go to the 13/8 favourite Destrier from perhaps Ballywood, and those are not my kind of prices,
Cheltenham 13.55 Gr 3 Hcap Chase 732 (144.0) 20.5f sf – 16 Run (14 at best)
Last year – 740 (144.7) gd – 12 ran
Frodon 7/1 6-11-12 (164) by 1.25l from Ceepage 12/1 6-10-5 (143)
Clondaw Castle 7-11-1 (144) (151.8)
02 Nov Cl 2 HCh (341/141.2) 17f gd/sf Asc 4/1 F 11-6 0.5l 2/12 off 144 – 140.8
held up in touch, lost place 9th, pushed along 4 out, rallied after 3 out, ridden and every chance flat, ran on
Won a pair of small field novice events after the turn of the year, but limitations shown when fading to 4/12 in the Arkle at the Festival and then a well-beaten 4/7 in the Maghull Novices at Aintree; made favourite for his return at Ascot last month, but possibly in need of the race and despite rallying 3 out could not quite get to the winner; rise in both trip and class to handle today, but should have further improvement to show on only 8th chase start.
Plus: class (F?); going (W); course (F?); form run lto (42 days); down 5lbs (wt);
Minus: distance (?); up in class; up in distance;
Verdict: potential to improve and a possible contender if staying the trip.
Brelan D’As 8-11-0 (143) (150.7)
16 Nov Gr 3 HCh (900/142.9) 20f sf Chelt 20/1 10-12 0.25l 2/17 off 138 – 136.7
held up mid-division, headway 3 out (usual 4 out), every chance when left 2nd 2 out, soon ridden, kept on towards finish, not quite reach winner
Just the 2 NCh wins to his name but has shown his liking for the course by finishing 3rd in the Grand Annual here back in March and then no quite getting to the winner in the BetVictor Gold Cup last month with Warthog (-6) 8l back in 3rd; has been raised 5lbs for that, but should still have more to come at around this distance and has won on gd and hv.
Plus: class (F); going (F)l distance (F); course (F); form run lto (28 days);
Minus: up 5lbs (OR); up 2lbs (wt);
Verdict: unexposed at this trip and thus a potential contender for yard that has won 5 of the last 10 renewals.
Ceepage 7-11-12 (155) (144.8)
09 Nov Cl 2 HCh (495/140.9) 20f sf Aint 4/1 Co F 11-12 1.75l 2/10 off 147 – 142.6
prominent, led 8th, headed 12th, every chance 2 out, held by winner last, kept on
Runner-up to Frodon in last year’s renewal off 143 and then not seen until finishing runner-up to Riders Onthe Storm (-7) off 147 at Aintree last month; with ROS inadvertently withdrawn, he has a chance to go one better this year; however, is 8lbs higher than at Aintree and 12lbs above last year’s mark.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (35 days);
Minus: up 8lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: proven over C&D, but carries 21lbs more actual weight than when runner-up 12 months ago, so maybe not the strongest contender for the win.
Good Man Pat 6-10-7 (136) (143.7)
22 Nov Cl 3 HCh (165/135.3) 24f sf Ascot 7/1 11-9 11.25l 4/13 off 137 – 121.3
in touch, ridden and headway 3 out, kept on same pace
Winning hurdler who won a NHCh at Plumpton in February and while he was PU in the Close Bros NHCh at the Festival, bounced back to finish a respectable 5/11 over 20f at Sandown in April; upped to 24f on his return at Ascot last month and probably needed the race; likely to appreciate the drop back in trip today and not without a chance.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); form run lto (22 days); down 1lb (OR); down 16lbs (wt); back in trip;
Minus: class (?); course; up 2 classes;
Verdict: as a 6yo with just 6 chase starts, has scope for improvement and a possible contender.
Secret Investor 7-11-7 (150)
02 Nov Gr 2 Chase (295/) 19.5f sf DRoy 5/1 11-6 14l 2/4 off 150 -
disputed lead, slight mistake 5th, led 9th, mistake next, strongly pressed when slight mistake 3 out, soon ridden, headed 2 out, no impression on winner when mistake at last, kept on one pace inside final furlong
Grade 2 winner over hurdles and matched that feat over fences at Ayr in April; jumping obviously not up to par when runner-up to Real Steel on his return at Down Royal last month, but by no means embarrassed; likely will be seen in a better light for his HCh and Cheltenham debut today; however, with no handicap form to work on, difficult to know where to place him.
Plus: class (W+); going (F); distance (W); recent outing (42 days); down in class;
Minus: course (?); up- 1lb (wt);
Verdict: has to be considered a contender, but hard to position.
Plenty of trends to consider here, not least that of the 61 9yo+ to run in the last 18 renewals, only 3 have made the frame, let alone win – bye, bye Robin Des Foret and Knocknanuss (for other reasons too!) Meanwhile, only a single winner in 18 years has broken these trends: last run within 40 days; 4-9 chase starts in last 12 months; not fallen more than once over fences; 1 – 6 starts in Class 1 chase; Cheltenham form is always important and 12 winners had previously run at Cheltenham, in fact, 8 of the last 12 came from Cheltenham last time out. Oh!, there is another one worth noting – just one winning favourite, although only one winner has started at longer than 16/1.
Of those towards the front of the betting that have been omitted, Not That Fuisse has had just 3 NCh starts, none above Cl 2, plus is yet to win. Compare that to Secret Investor who also hasn’t a rating, but has won in Grade 2! Benatar is another that’s being backed, but while he won his first 3 NCh 2 years ago, he showed little last term and hasn’t raced since January, so not for me.
So looking at my shortlist, despite the money for it, I’m not sure that Good Man Pat has strong enough credentials to claim today’s win as he’ll be racing at this level for the first time. My worries with Ceepage, meanwhile, are all to do with the massive jump in the weights he’s made since his fine effort last year. Having taken 5 of the last 10 renewals, you can’t ignore Nicholls pair and while I’m prepared to be wrong with Secret Investor, I do feel that Brelan D’As looks the more credible contender coming from the BetVictor here (a good trial race); I’m also wary of Warthog who was just behind him there. That leaves me with Clondaw Castle to fit in, as he does fail a few of the criteria, including this being his first try at the trip. So in the hopes I’ve got the right one of Nicholls, I’m going for Brelan D’As from Clondaw Castle with Ceepage, Secret Investor and perhaps Warthog scrapping it out for the minor places.
