Post by Old Timer on Nov 17, 2019 11:25:31 GMT
Familiar troubles again yesterday with the third choice doing best in both races, 14/1 winner and 11/2 3rd. I hope I get the order in better shape today!
Cheltenham 15.00 Gr 3 Hcap Hurdle 563 (135.4) 16.5f sf – 15 Run (14 at best)
Last year – 563 (137.1) 16.5 f gd – 18 ran
Nietzsche 20/1 5-9-7 (125) by 0.25l from Silver Streak 12/1 5-11-5 (145)
Mohaayed 25/1 6-11-6 (146) was 12.25l 7th
Monsieur Lecoq 5-11-8 (145) (145.1)
19 Oct Cl 2 HHd (313/138.5) 16f sf Ffos 7/2 10-5 0.1 1/10 off 138 – 136.1
held up in touch, led on bit 3 out, driven out flat, held on wel1
Second-season hurdler who has won 3 of his 7 starts to date, the latest on his return at Ffos Las last month; raised 7lbs for that, he’ll carry 14lbs more physical weight despite going up in class; disappointed when well backed in the Gr 3 County Hurdle at the Festival when both Countister (+3) and Mohaayed (+23) finished ahead, although that may well have been a result of finishing runner-up in the Imperial Cup 4 days earlier; certainly will be suited by the conditions.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (29 days);
Minus: course; up 7lbs (OR); up 14lbs (wt); up in class;
Verdict: tough hurdler in these conditions and forgiven County Hurdle effort on only visit here last March, a contender.
Quel Destin 4-11-12 (149)
26 Oct Cl 2 4yo-Hdl (250/) 16.5f hv Chelt 7/211-6 0.75l 1/7 off 142
always prominent on outside, went 2nd 4 out, came towards stands side rail and driven turning in, ridden to lead flat, just held on near finish
Progressive front-running 4yo hurdler who has won 6 of his 8 starts, only failing to make the first two in the Triumph back in March; returned to make a winning return over C&D here last month and will likely come on for the race; noted that Nicholls’ 2 winners in the last 10 years were both 4yos; making hcap debut today.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (22 days);
Minus: up 7lbs (OR); up 6lbs (wt); up in class; hcap debut;
Verdict: no figures to hang your hat on, but given trainer’s record in the race, a contender.
Quoi De Neuf 5-10-6 (129) (139.4)
12 Oct Cl 2 HHd (123/130.0) 16f sf Chep 4/1 10-12 4.5l 2/9 off 127 – 117.4
tracked leaders on inside, hit 3 out, led before next, ridden and headed approaching last, not pace of winner run-in
Winning Irish pointer who scored on his hurdle debut over 20f at Aintree last November; followed up with 4/10 in Gr 2 NHd at Sandown the following month; not seen then till runner-up in a Ffos Las NHd in April; returned at Chepstow dropped back 4f last month and was outpaced on the run-in; whether that was fitness or trip remains to be seen, but has been raised 2lbs, although will carry 6lbs less going up in class; making Cheltenham debut, so that’s a worry too.
Plus: going (F); distance (F); form run lto (36 days); down 6lbs (wt);
Minus: class; course (?); up 2lbs (OR); up in class; Cheltenham debut;
Verdict: likely to improve this year, but distance and no Cheltenham experience make him a questionable contender.
Gumball 5-11-10 (147) (137.3)
02 Nov List HHd (342/129.7) 15.5f gd/sf Ascot 11/2 11-1 0.25l 1/15 off 139 – 128.3
made all, clear before 2 out, ridden approaching last, just held on
Promising first year over hurdles, but just the 2 hurdle starts last term and was not seen after finishing L/9 in a Listed HHd at Newbury in October until recording a hat-trick of Flat wins this spring; given a break after a further AW outing at Newcastle in May and looked to need his hurdles return at Market Rasen in September; back in the winner’s enclosure at Ascot at the start of the month, for which he’s been raised 8lbs and carries 4lbs actual weight going up in class; has won at the distance, but hasn’t shown a lot in 3 Cheltenham starts.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (15 days);
Minus: class (?); up 8lbs (OR); up 4lbs (wt); up in class;
Verdict: back to form over hurdles, but only just held on at Ascot for which he has a sizeable hike going up in class, and with Cheltenham not being his favourite track maybe not the strongest contender.
Benny’s Bridge 6-11-0 (137) (129.9)
25 Oct Cl 3 HHd (97/124.3) 16.5f gd/sf Chelt 5/2 11-3 6l 1/13 off 127 – 115.9
held up in rear, steady headway before 2 out, tracked leaders on inside turning, left disputing lead last, ridden to lead flat, soon clear, stayed on well
Won both of his starts here, the latest on his return here last month; raised 10lbs for that and well up in class; obviously improving though and not discounted.
Plus: distance (W); course (W); form run lto (23 days); down 3lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); going; up 10lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: enjoys Cheltenham, but rising a long way in class and unproven on ground, so not the strongest of contenders.
A race that usually goes to young upcoming hurdlers who have both recent and Cheltenham form and are towards the top of the weights and the market, although not favourite (2/17). Points to note are that 14/17 were aged 4/5yo; 15/17 had no more than 4 hurdle wins, and; 15/17 had previously won over at 17f+. Then, 12/17 has run with 42 days; finished in top two lto; had run at Cheltenham before.
Of others that got a look but no inclusion were Henderson’s pair, Dame De Compagnie and Countister, as well as Hobbs’ other one Zanza. Joining them is Hobbs’ Gumball despite the trainer’s decent record in the race.
When it comes to sorting the final four, I think the well-fancied Benny’s Bridge is the first to go, as while he’s got a good record here, he’s going up a long way in class to regions he’s never been before, plus runs off a 10lbs higher mark. Meanwhile, I’ve got problems with the trip for Quoi De Neuf, plus this is his Cheltenham debut. So that leaves me with the Nicholls’ 4yo, Quel Destin, who is making his hcap debut, and Monsieur Lecoq who is a tough contender in these sort of conditions. Though to split given Nicholls record with 4yo hurdlers, but I’m going for Monsieur Lecoq from Quel Destin with perhaps Quoi De Neuf getting the better of Benny’s Bridge for the minor places.
Cheltenham 15.00 Gr 3 Hcap Hurdle 563 (135.4) 16.5f sf – 15 Run (14 at best)
Last year – 563 (137.1) 16.5 f gd – 18 ran
Nietzsche 20/1 5-9-7 (125) by 0.25l from Silver Streak 12/1 5-11-5 (145)
Mohaayed 25/1 6-11-6 (146) was 12.25l 7th
Monsieur Lecoq 5-11-8 (145) (145.1)
19 Oct Cl 2 HHd (313/138.5) 16f sf Ffos 7/2 10-5 0.1 1/10 off 138 – 136.1
held up in touch, led on bit 3 out, driven out flat, held on wel1
Second-season hurdler who has won 3 of his 7 starts to date, the latest on his return at Ffos Las last month; raised 7lbs for that, he’ll carry 14lbs more physical weight despite going up in class; disappointed when well backed in the Gr 3 County Hurdle at the Festival when both Countister (+3) and Mohaayed (+23) finished ahead, although that may well have been a result of finishing runner-up in the Imperial Cup 4 days earlier; certainly will be suited by the conditions.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (29 days);
Minus: course; up 7lbs (OR); up 14lbs (wt); up in class;
Verdict: tough hurdler in these conditions and forgiven County Hurdle effort on only visit here last March, a contender.
Quel Destin 4-11-12 (149)
26 Oct Cl 2 4yo-Hdl (250/) 16.5f hv Chelt 7/211-6 0.75l 1/7 off 142
always prominent on outside, went 2nd 4 out, came towards stands side rail and driven turning in, ridden to lead flat, just held on near finish
Progressive front-running 4yo hurdler who has won 6 of his 8 starts, only failing to make the first two in the Triumph back in March; returned to make a winning return over C&D here last month and will likely come on for the race; noted that Nicholls’ 2 winners in the last 10 years were both 4yos; making hcap debut today.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (22 days);
Minus: up 7lbs (OR); up 6lbs (wt); up in class; hcap debut;
Verdict: no figures to hang your hat on, but given trainer’s record in the race, a contender.
Quoi De Neuf 5-10-6 (129) (139.4)
12 Oct Cl 2 HHd (123/130.0) 16f sf Chep 4/1 10-12 4.5l 2/9 off 127 – 117.4
tracked leaders on inside, hit 3 out, led before next, ridden and headed approaching last, not pace of winner run-in
Winning Irish pointer who scored on his hurdle debut over 20f at Aintree last November; followed up with 4/10 in Gr 2 NHd at Sandown the following month; not seen then till runner-up in a Ffos Las NHd in April; returned at Chepstow dropped back 4f last month and was outpaced on the run-in; whether that was fitness or trip remains to be seen, but has been raised 2lbs, although will carry 6lbs less going up in class; making Cheltenham debut, so that’s a worry too.
Plus: going (F); distance (F); form run lto (36 days); down 6lbs (wt);
Minus: class; course (?); up 2lbs (OR); up in class; Cheltenham debut;
Verdict: likely to improve this year, but distance and no Cheltenham experience make him a questionable contender.
Gumball 5-11-10 (147) (137.3)
02 Nov List HHd (342/129.7) 15.5f gd/sf Ascot 11/2 11-1 0.25l 1/15 off 139 – 128.3
made all, clear before 2 out, ridden approaching last, just held on
Promising first year over hurdles, but just the 2 hurdle starts last term and was not seen after finishing L/9 in a Listed HHd at Newbury in October until recording a hat-trick of Flat wins this spring; given a break after a further AW outing at Newcastle in May and looked to need his hurdles return at Market Rasen in September; back in the winner’s enclosure at Ascot at the start of the month, for which he’s been raised 8lbs and carries 4lbs actual weight going up in class; has won at the distance, but hasn’t shown a lot in 3 Cheltenham starts.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (15 days);
Minus: class (?); up 8lbs (OR); up 4lbs (wt); up in class;
Verdict: back to form over hurdles, but only just held on at Ascot for which he has a sizeable hike going up in class, and with Cheltenham not being his favourite track maybe not the strongest contender.
Benny’s Bridge 6-11-0 (137) (129.9)
25 Oct Cl 3 HHd (97/124.3) 16.5f gd/sf Chelt 5/2 11-3 6l 1/13 off 127 – 115.9
held up in rear, steady headway before 2 out, tracked leaders on inside turning, left disputing lead last, ridden to lead flat, soon clear, stayed on well
Won both of his starts here, the latest on his return here last month; raised 10lbs for that and well up in class; obviously improving though and not discounted.
Plus: distance (W); course (W); form run lto (23 days); down 3lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); going; up 10lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: enjoys Cheltenham, but rising a long way in class and unproven on ground, so not the strongest of contenders.
A race that usually goes to young upcoming hurdlers who have both recent and Cheltenham form and are towards the top of the weights and the market, although not favourite (2/17). Points to note are that 14/17 were aged 4/5yo; 15/17 had no more than 4 hurdle wins, and; 15/17 had previously won over at 17f+. Then, 12/17 has run with 42 days; finished in top two lto; had run at Cheltenham before.
Of others that got a look but no inclusion were Henderson’s pair, Dame De Compagnie and Countister, as well as Hobbs’ other one Zanza. Joining them is Hobbs’ Gumball despite the trainer’s decent record in the race.
When it comes to sorting the final four, I think the well-fancied Benny’s Bridge is the first to go, as while he’s got a good record here, he’s going up a long way in class to regions he’s never been before, plus runs off a 10lbs higher mark. Meanwhile, I’ve got problems with the trip for Quoi De Neuf, plus this is his Cheltenham debut. So that leaves me with the Nicholls’ 4yo, Quel Destin, who is making his hcap debut, and Monsieur Lecoq who is a tough contender in these sort of conditions. Though to split given Nicholls record with 4yo hurdlers, but I’m going for Monsieur Lecoq from Quel Destin with perhaps Quoi De Neuf getting the better of Benny’s Bridge for the minor places.
