Post by Old Timer on Nov 16, 2019 11:56:08 GMT
Last week had that early season feel to it, so while I suppose we should be thankful to be racing at Cheltenham, hopes are once again not that high.
Cheltenham 14.25 Gr 3 Hcap Chase 900 (142.7) sf – 20 Run (18 at best)
Last year – 903 (142.7) gd – 18 ran
Baron Alco 8/1 7-10-11(146) by 2l from Frodon16/1 6-11-12 (161)
Guitar Pete 12/1 8-10-2 (137) was 10l 3rd
Eamon An Cnoic 50/1 7-10-0 (135) was 11l 5th
Splash Of Ginge 10/1 10-10-6 (141) PU before 3 out
Happy Diva 25/1 7-10-2 (140) B/D 4 out
Slate House 7-11-7 (147)
26 Oct Cl 2 Nov Ch (159) 20f hv Chelt 3/1 11-3 11l 1/6 off 135
held up in 4th, tracked leaders going well after 3 out (usual 4 out),led on bit on long run before 2 out, clear last, easily
Gr 2 novice hurdle winner here, but didn’t overly impress over fences last season; a wind operation between seasons turned that on its head on his return when romping home in a Cl 2 NCh over C&D here under today’s jockey in dire conditions; has been raised 12lbs for that and will carry 4lbs more actual weight, but one would suspect that there’s far more to come; that said, this is a big jump in class of opposition.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: class; up in class; up 12lbs (OR); up 4lbs (wt); hcap debut;
Verdict: Not difficult to see why he’s favourite, and a contender despite having to prove himself at this level over fences.
Happy Diva 8-11-3 (143) (151.8)
01 Nov List HCh (171/138.4) 19f gd/sf Weth 11/2 10-13 3.5l 2/8 off 142 – 135.0
raced keenly tracking leaders, went 2nd 10th, led 4 out, ridden and headed before 2 out, stayed on same pace in 2nd
Promising chaser who was making progress when B/D 4 out off a 3lbs lower mark in last year’s renewal, although went on to win a LiHCh over this trip at Huntingdon in January off 143; promising enough return at Wetherby at the start of the month when runner-up to Guitar Pete (-4) with Demi Sang (+4) 2.75l back in 3rd; raised 1lb for that
but is 4lbs better off with GP, though 2lbs worse off with DS; little more exposed than the average winner with 15 chase starts but has twice been runner-up here since last year’s race and has won on gd/sf to hv ground.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (15 days);
Minus: up 1lbs (OR); up 1lb (wt); up in class;
Verdict: should have come on for Wetherby opener and a possible contender.
Spiritofthegames 7-11-10 (150) (148.1)
04 Apr Gr 1 Nov Ch (564/) gd/sf Aint 8/1 11-4 33l 5/6 off 150
tracked leaders on inside from 3rd, blundered 10th, pushed along next, blundered 5 out, soon ridden and unable to go with clear trio, no danger after, lost modest 4th before last
14 Mar Gr 3 HCh (619/142.0) 20.5f gd/sf Chelt 6/1 11-3 3l 3/22 off 147 – 144.1
held up towards rear, headway on inside after 5 out, chased leaders 3 out, ridden after next, soon one pace, stayed on under pressure to take 3rd near finish, no impression with front pair
Promising first season over fences crowned by a fine effort behind Airuh Du Lac (-9) in the Plate at the Festival in March; can be forgiven season-ending effort at Aintree when perhaps pushed beyond his ability; meets ADL on 6lbs better terms today, although does have something to find.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (F); down in class;
Minus: 226-day break; up 6lbs (wt);
Verdict: likely to improve this season and should be closer to SDL today, a contender.
Siruh Du Lac 6-11-10 (150) (147.3)
14 Mar Gr 3 HCh (619/142.0) 20.5f gd/sf Chelt 9/2 10-11 0.75l 1/22 off 141 – 140.3
made all, driven and hard pressed before 2 out, soon ridden, stayed on gamely flat, always just holding runner-up
Highly progressive chaser who came back from a year off to win all 4 starts last season, the last two a pair of Gr 3 HCh over 20.5f here; raised 9lbs for his latest success here when he had Spiritofthegames (+9) 3l back in 3rd, plus will carry 10lbs more physical weight, which is more than he’s previously carried; however, goes well fresh and likely has more to offer.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto;
Minus: 247-day break; up 9lbs (OR); up 10lbs (wt);
Verdict: improving young chaser and has to be considered a contender.
Count Meribel 7-11-6 (146) (138.2p)
03 Nov List Chase (171/) 20f sf Carl 9/2 11-2 2.25l 2/4 off 146
tracked winner, ridden before last, kept on and no impression
Novice chase winner over C&D at this meeting last year having won a NHCh on his return at Carlisle; runner-up in listed company at the same Carlisle meeting on his return this season; likely to improve for that and stable has a good record in the race (3/6/26) including 2 winners in the last 10 years.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (13 days);
Minus: class; up 4lbs (wt); up in class;
Verdict: difficult to position with only the single HCh start, but a possible contender.
While 9yo have won 2 of the last 3, both on sf ground, that’s the exception rather than the rule as 10 of the last 13 have been won by 5-7yo. Moreover, that is back up by the fact that 11/13 had no more than 10 chase starts and 12/13 no more than 7 in hcaps. Another thing to bear in mind is that 11/13 had previously won a Cl 2+ chase, while all 13 had won over 19/22f. Perhaps the outstanding trend though is that each of the last 17 winners had previously run at Cheltenham, of which 12 had actually won here.
Others that got a look, but failed to progress to the shortlist included Highway One O One, Guitar Pete, Magic Saint and Us And Them. They’re joined by Spiritofthegames who is the first to leave my shortlist. Of the remaining quartet, Slate House gives me a problem with no hcap form and while he might well win, he is moving up to face stronger opposition off a much higher mark; I think I’ll pass, Of those that are left, Siruh Du Lac is on a fine run and can’t be ignored, while Twiston-Davies has a fine record in th race and his Count Meribel looks the sort to be thereabouts. Happy Diva, meanwhile, is an 8yo, but is relatively lightly raced over fences and looked to be threatening last year when baulked and brought down, so he’s my speculative punt for the frame. Do while I will not be surprised if Slate House wins. I’m going for Siruh Du Lac from Count Meribel with Happy Diva holding off Spiritofthegames.
Cheltenham 15.00 Listed Hcap Hurdle 225 (136.4) 24f sf – 10 Run
Last year – 225 (132.2) gd – 10 ran
First Assignment 6/4 F 5-10-9 (130) by 9l from Boyhood 10/1 7-11-8 (143)
Anteros 9/1 10-10-3 (129) Fell
Tobefair 9-11-12 (154) (150.8)
26 Oct Cl 2 HHd (155/136.2) 24f hv Chelt 8/1 11-12 0.5l 1/8 off 149 – 148.8
raced wide, held up towards rear, close up 8th, driven and came towards stands side rail turning in, soon challenged, ridden to lead flat, edged left, held on gamely towards finish
Tried his hand at chasing last year, but more success when reverting to hurdles and after being runner-up in the Pertemps at the Festival, returned to the winner’s enclosure over C&D here in April; returned to repeat the feat here last month and while he’s been raised 5lbs, he’s obviously in good heart.
Plus: class (F+); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: up in class; up 5lbd (OR);
Verdict: capable hurdler and in good form, a contender despite needing a career best.
Smackwater Jack 5-10-3 (131) (137.5)
21 Oct Cl 3 HHd (104/122.0) 24.5f sf Aint 7/1 11-5 0.25l 2/11 off 127 – 112.5
held up towards rear, headway on inside approaching 2 out, went 2nd and hit last, hung left and switched right run-in, strong challenge towards finish, found no extra
Won a Ludlow novice during first season over hurdles and showed improvement when stepped up in trip at Aintree last month; raised 4lbs for that, and will need to step up again to make his mark at this level.
Plus: going (F); distance (F); form run lto (20 days); down 16lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 4lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: has shown promise and will likely progress further, but a lot more required today and not the strongest contender perhaps.
Eva’s Oskar 5-10-0 (128) (122.9)
29 Oct Cl 4 HHd (38/111.8) 23.5 gd/sf Chep 5/1 11-11 0.75 1/16 off 118 – 93.4
Fast improving young hurdler who completed the hat-trick dropped back to Cl 4 lto; raised 10lbs for that, although set to carry 25lbs less physical weight; looks the type that can continue to improve, although this is a far tougher test.
Plus: distance (W); form run lto (17 days); down 25lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); going; course (?); up 10lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: pleasing looking sort and a possible contender despite this being a big rise in class.
The Butcher Said 6-10-8 (136)
26 Oct Cl 2 Nov Hdl (94/) 24f hv Chelt 7/2 11-6 3.4l 2/4 off 136
held up in rear, took closer order in 4th at 5th, travelled well turning in, went 2nd approaching last, ridden and not quicken after last, well held flat
Had already won 3 times this term, but found the step up to 24f on hv ground here in Cl 2 a little too much lto; however, now goes handicapping and while he steps up in class again, he’ll be carrying 12lbs less weight.
Plus: distance (F); course (F); form run lto (21 days); down 12lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); going (?); up in class;
Verdict: in good form over the summer and not disgraced over C&D here lto, but this a tough ask to start hcap career.
Generally a race for young (5-7yo) hurdlers who are starting to make their way – only a single winner carrying above 10-11 in the past 10 years.
Among those ignored are 2016 winner Anteros (now 11yo) and Vieux Lion Rouge who are both coming from wins over fences, as well as As De Mee who has been off the course 630 days. Of the quartet in my shortlist I have to think that top weight Tobefair won’t be far away at the finish, but for the winner look to those lower down the weights. The Butcher Said gives me a problem, of course, starting his hcap career, but the fact that all his wins have come on gd leaves me to go for Eva’s Oskar and Smackwater Jack to provide the winner. Preference is just for Eva’s Oskar from Smackwater Jack with perhaps Tobefair and The Butcher Said filling out the frame.
Cheltenham 14.25 Gr 3 Hcap Chase 900 (142.7) sf – 20 Run (18 at best)
Last year – 903 (142.7) gd – 18 ran
Baron Alco 8/1 7-10-11(146) by 2l from Frodon16/1 6-11-12 (161)
Guitar Pete 12/1 8-10-2 (137) was 10l 3rd
Eamon An Cnoic 50/1 7-10-0 (135) was 11l 5th
Splash Of Ginge 10/1 10-10-6 (141) PU before 3 out
Happy Diva 25/1 7-10-2 (140) B/D 4 out
Slate House 7-11-7 (147)
26 Oct Cl 2 Nov Ch (159) 20f hv Chelt 3/1 11-3 11l 1/6 off 135
held up in 4th, tracked leaders going well after 3 out (usual 4 out),led on bit on long run before 2 out, clear last, easily
Gr 2 novice hurdle winner here, but didn’t overly impress over fences last season; a wind operation between seasons turned that on its head on his return when romping home in a Cl 2 NCh over C&D here under today’s jockey in dire conditions; has been raised 12lbs for that and will carry 4lbs more actual weight, but one would suspect that there’s far more to come; that said, this is a big jump in class of opposition.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: class; up in class; up 12lbs (OR); up 4lbs (wt); hcap debut;
Verdict: Not difficult to see why he’s favourite, and a contender despite having to prove himself at this level over fences.
Happy Diva 8-11-3 (143) (151.8)
01 Nov List HCh (171/138.4) 19f gd/sf Weth 11/2 10-13 3.5l 2/8 off 142 – 135.0
raced keenly tracking leaders, went 2nd 10th, led 4 out, ridden and headed before 2 out, stayed on same pace in 2nd
Promising chaser who was making progress when B/D 4 out off a 3lbs lower mark in last year’s renewal, although went on to win a LiHCh over this trip at Huntingdon in January off 143; promising enough return at Wetherby at the start of the month when runner-up to Guitar Pete (-4) with Demi Sang (+4) 2.75l back in 3rd; raised 1lb for that
but is 4lbs better off with GP, though 2lbs worse off with DS; little more exposed than the average winner with 15 chase starts but has twice been runner-up here since last year’s race and has won on gd/sf to hv ground.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (15 days);
Minus: up 1lbs (OR); up 1lb (wt); up in class;
Verdict: should have come on for Wetherby opener and a possible contender.
Spiritofthegames 7-11-10 (150) (148.1)
04 Apr Gr 1 Nov Ch (564/) gd/sf Aint 8/1 11-4 33l 5/6 off 150
tracked leaders on inside from 3rd, blundered 10th, pushed along next, blundered 5 out, soon ridden and unable to go with clear trio, no danger after, lost modest 4th before last
14 Mar Gr 3 HCh (619/142.0) 20.5f gd/sf Chelt 6/1 11-3 3l 3/22 off 147 – 144.1
held up towards rear, headway on inside after 5 out, chased leaders 3 out, ridden after next, soon one pace, stayed on under pressure to take 3rd near finish, no impression with front pair
Promising first season over fences crowned by a fine effort behind Airuh Du Lac (-9) in the Plate at the Festival in March; can be forgiven season-ending effort at Aintree when perhaps pushed beyond his ability; meets ADL on 6lbs better terms today, although does have something to find.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (F); down in class;
Minus: 226-day break; up 6lbs (wt);
Verdict: likely to improve this season and should be closer to SDL today, a contender.
Siruh Du Lac 6-11-10 (150) (147.3)
14 Mar Gr 3 HCh (619/142.0) 20.5f gd/sf Chelt 9/2 10-11 0.75l 1/22 off 141 – 140.3
made all, driven and hard pressed before 2 out, soon ridden, stayed on gamely flat, always just holding runner-up
Highly progressive chaser who came back from a year off to win all 4 starts last season, the last two a pair of Gr 3 HCh over 20.5f here; raised 9lbs for his latest success here when he had Spiritofthegames (+9) 3l back in 3rd, plus will carry 10lbs more physical weight, which is more than he’s previously carried; however, goes well fresh and likely has more to offer.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto;
Minus: 247-day break; up 9lbs (OR); up 10lbs (wt);
Verdict: improving young chaser and has to be considered a contender.
Count Meribel 7-11-6 (146) (138.2p)
03 Nov List Chase (171/) 20f sf Carl 9/2 11-2 2.25l 2/4 off 146
tracked winner, ridden before last, kept on and no impression
Novice chase winner over C&D at this meeting last year having won a NHCh on his return at Carlisle; runner-up in listed company at the same Carlisle meeting on his return this season; likely to improve for that and stable has a good record in the race (3/6/26) including 2 winners in the last 10 years.
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (13 days);
Minus: class; up 4lbs (wt); up in class;
Verdict: difficult to position with only the single HCh start, but a possible contender.
While 9yo have won 2 of the last 3, both on sf ground, that’s the exception rather than the rule as 10 of the last 13 have been won by 5-7yo. Moreover, that is back up by the fact that 11/13 had no more than 10 chase starts and 12/13 no more than 7 in hcaps. Another thing to bear in mind is that 11/13 had previously won a Cl 2+ chase, while all 13 had won over 19/22f. Perhaps the outstanding trend though is that each of the last 17 winners had previously run at Cheltenham, of which 12 had actually won here.
Others that got a look, but failed to progress to the shortlist included Highway One O One, Guitar Pete, Magic Saint and Us And Them. They’re joined by Spiritofthegames who is the first to leave my shortlist. Of the remaining quartet, Slate House gives me a problem with no hcap form and while he might well win, he is moving up to face stronger opposition off a much higher mark; I think I’ll pass, Of those that are left, Siruh Du Lac is on a fine run and can’t be ignored, while Twiston-Davies has a fine record in th race and his Count Meribel looks the sort to be thereabouts. Happy Diva, meanwhile, is an 8yo, but is relatively lightly raced over fences and looked to be threatening last year when baulked and brought down, so he’s my speculative punt for the frame. Do while I will not be surprised if Slate House wins. I’m going for Siruh Du Lac from Count Meribel with Happy Diva holding off Spiritofthegames.
Cheltenham 15.00 Listed Hcap Hurdle 225 (136.4) 24f sf – 10 Run
Last year – 225 (132.2) gd – 10 ran
First Assignment 6/4 F 5-10-9 (130) by 9l from Boyhood 10/1 7-11-8 (143)
Anteros 9/1 10-10-3 (129) Fell
Tobefair 9-11-12 (154) (150.8)
26 Oct Cl 2 HHd (155/136.2) 24f hv Chelt 8/1 11-12 0.5l 1/8 off 149 – 148.8
raced wide, held up towards rear, close up 8th, driven and came towards stands side rail turning in, soon challenged, ridden to lead flat, edged left, held on gamely towards finish
Tried his hand at chasing last year, but more success when reverting to hurdles and after being runner-up in the Pertemps at the Festival, returned to the winner’s enclosure over C&D here in April; returned to repeat the feat here last month and while he’s been raised 5lbs, he’s obviously in good heart.
Plus: class (F+); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: up in class; up 5lbd (OR);
Verdict: capable hurdler and in good form, a contender despite needing a career best.
Smackwater Jack 5-10-3 (131) (137.5)
21 Oct Cl 3 HHd (104/122.0) 24.5f sf Aint 7/1 11-5 0.25l 2/11 off 127 – 112.5
held up towards rear, headway on inside approaching 2 out, went 2nd and hit last, hung left and switched right run-in, strong challenge towards finish, found no extra
Won a Ludlow novice during first season over hurdles and showed improvement when stepped up in trip at Aintree last month; raised 4lbs for that, and will need to step up again to make his mark at this level.
Plus: going (F); distance (F); form run lto (20 days); down 16lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 4lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: has shown promise and will likely progress further, but a lot more required today and not the strongest contender perhaps.
Eva’s Oskar 5-10-0 (128) (122.9)
29 Oct Cl 4 HHd (38/111.8) 23.5 gd/sf Chep 5/1 11-11 0.75 1/16 off 118 – 93.4
Fast improving young hurdler who completed the hat-trick dropped back to Cl 4 lto; raised 10lbs for that, although set to carry 25lbs less physical weight; looks the type that can continue to improve, although this is a far tougher test.
Plus: distance (W); form run lto (17 days); down 25lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); going; course (?); up 10lbs (OR); up in class;
Verdict: pleasing looking sort and a possible contender despite this being a big rise in class.
The Butcher Said 6-10-8 (136)
26 Oct Cl 2 Nov Hdl (94/) 24f hv Chelt 7/2 11-6 3.4l 2/4 off 136
held up in rear, took closer order in 4th at 5th, travelled well turning in, went 2nd approaching last, ridden and not quicken after last, well held flat
Had already won 3 times this term, but found the step up to 24f on hv ground here in Cl 2 a little too much lto; however, now goes handicapping and while he steps up in class again, he’ll be carrying 12lbs less weight.
Plus: distance (F); course (F); form run lto (21 days); down 12lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); going (?); up in class;
Verdict: in good form over the summer and not disgraced over C&D here lto, but this a tough ask to start hcap career.
Generally a race for young (5-7yo) hurdlers who are starting to make their way – only a single winner carrying above 10-11 in the past 10 years.
Among those ignored are 2016 winner Anteros (now 11yo) and Vieux Lion Rouge who are both coming from wins over fences, as well as As De Mee who has been off the course 630 days. Of the quartet in my shortlist I have to think that top weight Tobefair won’t be far away at the finish, but for the winner look to those lower down the weights. The Butcher Said gives me a problem, of course, starting his hcap career, but the fact that all his wins have come on gd leaves me to go for Eva’s Oskar and Smackwater Jack to provide the winner. Preference is just for Eva’s Oskar from Smackwater Jack with perhaps Tobefair and The Butcher Said filling out the frame.
